Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/VaPoliticalNews/status/1379593523633262594

No due process...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

To be honest, I'm actually glad that Cook and others are acting like the race is a real tossup

Acting like? They say wherever data leads.

This news will force Dems not get complacent and it will also end up being a far bigger deal if Dems do end up winning big in Virginia because this time around the media won't be able to simply dismiss the victory because it was in a blue state since they were the one who insisted that the race was a toss up in the first place lol

I guess, you try to make a comparison with CA (media didn't "dismissed" the victory there btw)? Biden is quite popular there, but likely is underwater here. Dems will probably still win, but a relatively close race is not a good news for Dems.

Also, what media says it's a toss up? Cook is for nerds, literally no one else knows who they are. Imo, media says it Lean D. If anything, they will spin it as a win for D, even if the results turns out to be relatively close.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Cook doesn't even say, it's a pure toss-up. They say, McAuliffe has a slight age (and many fundamentals are towards him). Had they Tilt rating, they'd probably use that. They say also, that while GOP has enthusiasm advantage, for now, it can change as it did in CA.




Imo, not really a hot take.


No, they are not click-bate, quite the opposite. They need to deliver good analyses, otherwise why would people pay them for?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You would never know that a new poll just had McAuliffe up 3, 5, 7 yesterday with all of the new 'Dems in disarray in VA' articles popping up

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/28/white-house-mcauliffe-514455

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/25/politics/virginia-governor-race-analysis/index.html

In what way are these articles are 'Dems in disarray in VA'? What's wrong with these articles?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1448047388426375168

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1449042998579372032

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This article provides literally zero proof that the GOP message on education is or isn't working with Suburban moderates. If anything, the few legitimate data points it includes points to no. But let's not get in front of the narrative we're trying to achieve!

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1449755843403124739

What narrative?

It's an interesting article about that [VA] GOP sees education as an opening. Further, the article says, that GOP will use it nationally, if it will have worked in VA election. The article doesn't claim, it will work, they say, GOP thinks it might work.

You should stop "unskewing" articles 

Youngkin could be an example for Republicans to use in next year's congressional midterm elections.

“If Youngkin is able to improve his margins in suburbs that have gone from red to blue over the past decade in Virginia, we could see this used as a blueprint in the midterms in certain place," she added.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Morning Consult has Biden approval at 48/49 for Sept. 14-Oct. 13, 2021.

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/18/biden-approval-rating-virginia-gubernatorial-race/

This is actually better than I expected for Biden and if those numbers hold I think McAuliffe is winning this.

Glenn Youngkin and the GOP really needs Biden to being doing a lot worse in that state because voters being split down the middle when it comes to the president's approval is not going to cut it for Youngkin if actually wants to win this.

also, this goes back to 9/14, when his position was a bit worse, so I wonder what the data is showing for the last week or so and if it has improved.

Whose position was  a bit worse? Biden's? If so, his (national) approvals was a bit better at 9/14 according to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1450204330053840902
Youngkin has had his own school gaffe.. lmaooo

How's that a gaffe?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Morning Consult has Biden approval at 48/49 for Sept. 14-Oct. 13, 2021.

https://morningconsult.com/2021/10/18/biden-approval-rating-virginia-gubernatorial-race/

This is actually better than I expected for Biden and if those numbers hold I think McAuliffe is winning this.

Glenn Youngkin and the GOP really needs Biden to being doing a lot worse in that state because voters being split down the middle when it comes to the president's approval is not going to cut it for Youngkin if actually wants to win this.

also, this goes back to 9/14, when his position was a bit worse, so I wonder what the data is showing for the last week or so and if it has improved.

Whose position was  a bit worse? Biden's? If so, his (national) approvals was a bit better at 9/14 according to 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1450204330053840902
Youngkin has had his own school gaffe.. lmaooo

How's that a gaffe?

Youngkin is literally taking a sh**t on the entire VA education system. That has direct and indirect implications. You can't honestly say that T-Mac's words out of context are somehow a gaffe and not Youngkin saying that the entire VA educational system is horrific.

It's you who is saying this.

He says in this tweet "Glenn Youngkin will highlight the failure of Virginia's school system and offer his vision to make our schools worthy of our children."

IMO, it's a generic message. I'll tell you about a failure of X and offer a vision of how to fix XYZ.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Jesus Christ. Stop it.

When Bernie Sanders is talking about failure of healthcare (or any other) system of US, no sane person would say, he's sh**tting on doctors and nurses.

Jesus effing Christ.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Here are the interviews.

https://wjla.com/news/local/watch-7news-goes-one-on-one-with-virginia-gubernatorial-candidates-terry-mcauliffe-glenn-youngkin

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

You should literally put your money, where your mouth is, if you really think, that Youngkin doesn't have "a realistic chance of winning". You can get then a decent amount of money without a realistic chance of losing them.





Personally, I think, 30% (1 of 3) is a bit too much. But anything between 15-25% (from 1 of 6 to 1 of 4) is a reasonable assumption, given the data (polls, fundraising, historical patterns, Biden's approval etc) we have.

With that said, McAuliffe winning by 10+ probably also has 15-25% chance to happen.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

-Gamble with actual money

It's only a gamble, if you think, that Youngkin, if fact, does have  "realistic chance of winning". Otherwise, it's almost free money given the odds you have. Unless your definition of not having a"realistic chance of winning" is like 15-20%?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Technically, yes, but gamble/betting usually involve some risk, which according to you almost doesn't exist in this case.

Betting for WY getting red would get you like 0.01% return, thus you have a risk of losing money on average despite high probability.
Betting for McAuliffe would give you like 20% returns, which given your claims (no real chance of winning) is almost free money. Stats 101.

Whatever, this leads nowhere.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The issue for Youngkin is that much like how he twisted McAuliffe's words on teachers/schools, McAuliffe can easily use Youngkins simple "no" to say he doesn't support same-sex marriage.

What was twisted?

Btw, since McAuliffe's statement, you're trying tirelessly to see everywhere Youngkin's "gaffe", which kinda proves that you, indeed, yourself think, that McAuliffe made a gaffe.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410

But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

@xingkerui

Another "advice" is to read, what experts think is going on. I've already linked to Cook, whose rating was dismissed by forum expert wbrock as "click-bate" (it's doubtful, he or she has even read it, though), falsely claiming they had bad records. Here is another one
https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1451622826885009410
But I'm sure, you'll discard it as click-bate/doomerism whatever, will ya?

The article is basically saying that it is still an uphill battle for the Republicans and Dems still have the advantage. It really didn't tell us anything that we did not already know nor did they really convince me that race has fundamentally changed all that much.

That's what most blue avatars say as well.

If anything the main takeaway from this article for me is that despite everything that has gone wrong for dems Glenn Youngkin is still failing to either take the lead or at least turn the race into a tossup. I'm sorry, but at this point in the race neither Glenn Youngkin or his supporters should be celebrating the fact that he is still behind Terry Mcauliffe.

The Republicans can spin it as much as they like, but at some point being behind is not going to cut it for Glenn Youngkin if he really wants to win this. The reality for Youngkin is that if he is still failing to take the lead in this race a few days from now than it is probably over for him and Terry Mcauliffe is heading for a victory.

Yeah, TM likely is, it's a D+10 state after all. I care more about 2022, and possible swings or the lack thereof in VA/NJ will tell us something.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah. I am wondering who these blue avatars, Non Swing Voter & Co keep ranting about, are. Are they just strawmen?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1451569193216888836

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeamYoungkin/status/1451684385498009601

A literal shrug of the shoulders

They made IMO quite good ad out of it.

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1451997606935158797

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Youngkin bringing up blackface over a relatively popular governor says all you need to know about his pathetic campaign's chances with one week out.  LOL

Nothing wrong with pointing out hypocrisy. Someone truly into racial justice wouldn't be happy with terrance literally poo-pooing and shrugging away a kkk picture and blackface.

While I agree with you that Youngkin has every right to bring up the issue if he wants to. I do think that it's odd that he is doing this at this stage of the race and frankly if he was winning there is no chance that he would even have to resort to these kinds of desperate attacks in the first place


If Youngkin was winning right now there would be no need to ever bring up Ralph Northam because even if voters voter agreed with on him on the Dems hypocrisy over blackface, I still think most people do not care about this issue at all and others see it as old news that they have moved on from a long time ago

Ultimately it's simply not a good sign for Youngkin at all that he feels at this stage of the campaign that he needs to focus more on what Ralph Northam may have done 30 years ago than on actually convincing voters to support him and his policies

Your analysis based on couple (out of hundreds) of ads? Ok. Why do you think, these are "desperate attacks"? IMO, these kinds of ads might be effective into lowering enthusiasm among some D electorate.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1452598991045136390👀

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Youngkin bringing up blackface over a relatively popular governor says all you need to know about his pathetic campaign's chances with one week out.  LOL

Nothing wrong with pointing out hypocrisy. Someone truly into racial justice wouldn't be happy with terrance literally poo-pooing and shrugging away a kkk picture and blackface.

While I agree with you that Youngkin has every right to bring up the issue if he wants to. I do think that it's odd that he is doing this at this stage of the race and frankly if he was winning there is no chance that he would even have to resort to these kinds of desperate attacks in the first place


If Youngkin was winning right now there would be no need to ever bring up Ralph Northam because even if voters voter agreed with on him on the Dems hypocrisy over blackface, I still think most people do not care about this issue at all and others see it as old news that they have moved on from a long time ago

Ultimately it's simply not a good sign for Youngkin at all that he feels at this stage of the campaign that he needs to focus more on what Ralph Northam may have done 30 years ago than on actually convincing voters to support him and his policies

Your analysis based on couple (out of hundreds) of ads? Ok. Why do you think, these are "desperate attacks"? IMO, these kinds of ads might be effective into lowering enthusiasm among some D electorate.

You don't know what ads are playing regularly in Virginia.

I do.

https://www.wtkr.com/news/campaigns-for-virginia-governor-go-negative-in-final-weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/virginia-governors-race-abortion-schools-take-center-stage-in-election-ad-wars-.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/us/politics/virginia-governor-campaign-ads.html

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Youngkin bringing up blackface over a relatively popular governor says all you need to know about his pathetic campaign's chances with one week out.  LOL

Nothing wrong with pointing out hypocrisy. Someone truly into racial justice wouldn't be happy with terrance literally poo-pooing and shrugging away a kkk picture and blackface.

While I agree with you that Youngkin has every right to bring up the issue if he wants to. I do think that it's odd that he is doing this at this stage of the race and frankly if he was winning there is no chance that he would even have to resort to these kinds of desperate attacks in the first place


If Youngkin was winning right now there would be no need to ever bring up Ralph Northam because even if voters voter agreed with on him on the Dems hypocrisy over blackface, I still think most people do not care about this issue at all and others see it as old news that they have moved on from a long time ago

Ultimately it's simply not a good sign for Youngkin at all that he feels at this stage of the campaign that he needs to focus more on what Ralph Northam may have done 30 years ago than on actually convincing voters to support him and his policies

Your analysis based on couple (out of hundreds) of ads? Ok. Why do you think, these are "desperate attacks"? IMO, these kinds of ads might be effective into lowering enthusiasm among some D electorate.

You don't know what ads are playing regularly in Virginia.

I do.

https://www.wtkr.com/news/campaigns-for-virginia-governor-go-negative-in-final-weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/virginia-governors-race-abortion-schools-take-center-stage-in-election-ad-wars-.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/us/politics/virginia-governor-campaign-ads.html

You do realize there are a plethora more of ads running that just the ones a few websites have noted? Unless you live in VA, you do not know all the ads that are running.

I see, you haven't bother to read the articles.

Unless you live in VA, you do not know all the ads that are running.

What a smart take!

Unless you live in VA and watch all the TV-channels simultaneously, while listening to all radio stations and watching all the ads in social media, you do not know all the ads that are running!!!!111

Well, that's why there are people who analysis the large share of ads for you. Like these in the articles, I linked to.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Noted GOP activist is now just a "regular mom" in new Youngkin ad. This is just desperate.

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1452677631758016513

The main theme of the ad is probably very well-chosen.

From the latest Suffolk

24. Should parents or school boards have more of an influence on a school’s curriculum?

• Parents 49.80%
• School Boards 38.80%