Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

[wbrocks67]

Not really paying attention to this race tbh but have the "black voters are not energized" articles started yet? Those were all over the place in 2017.

I'm sure they're on the way

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

Are they? Because polls show a close race here. The GOP losing CoC types but picking up blue collar minorities is not a trade I'd want to make, and right now that looks like the most likely outcome.

Might not be a big deal in upper middle class Virginia, but it would be devastating for what's left of the Midwest, and would dash any hopes of a blue Texas.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

Are they? Because polls show a close race here. The GOP losing CoC types but picking up blue collar minorities is not a trade I'd want to make, and right now that looks like the most likely outcome.

Might not be a big deal in upper middle class Virginia, but it would be devastating for what's left of the Midwest, and would dash any hopes of a blue Texas.

Youngkin has had like 3% black support in most of the polls and Latino support seems about on the same level as 2016/2020, so not sure where you're getting that impression in VA at least.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

Are they? Because polls show a close race here. The GOP losing CoC types but picking up blue collar minorities is not a trade I'd want to make, and right now that looks like the most likely outcome.

Might not be a big deal in upper middle class Virginia, but it would be devastating for what's left of the Midwest, and would dash any hopes of a blue Texas.

Youngkin has had like 3% black support in most of the polls and Latino support seems about on the same level as 2016/2020, so not sure where you're getting that impression in VA at least.

I hope you are correct. Polls have shown Biden's approval taking a huge hit among unvaccinated minorities and with vaccines such a big part of political discourse these days, that is problematic.

Also, while I have said myself it's not the same thing, 20% of Black California voters and over 40% of Latino California voters said yes on the recall.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Yuck. This makes me trust T Mac even less. If a CoC isn't all in for the Republican, something is very amiss in the Democratic party.

Why can't you just accept the Republican Party is alienating people?

Are they? Because polls show a close race here. The GOP losing CoC types but picking up blue collar minorities is not a trade I'd want to make, and right now that looks like the most likely outcome.

Might not be a big deal in upper middle class Virginia, but it would be devastating for what's left of the Midwest, and would dash any hopes of a blue Texas.

Youngkin has had like 3% black support in most of the polls and Latino support seems about on the same level as 2016/2020, so not sure where you're getting that impression in VA at least.

I hope you are correct. Polls have shown Biden's approval taking a huge hit among unvaccinated minorities and with vaccines such a big part of political discourse these days, that is problematic.

Also, while I have said myself it's not the same thing, 20% of Black California voters and over 40% of Latino California voters said yes on the recall.

No they didn't, actual results by precinct show very little GOP improvement with AA's and urban Hispanics.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/christinafreund/status/1443343610838142980?s=20

Big Youngkin momentum!

Ugh... that won't change a single vote. Nobody cares about these kind of endorsements.

[beaver2.0]

McAuliffe/Ayala/Herring signs popping up everywhere in Fort Hunt.

[Progressive Pessimist]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

[SnowLabrador]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

[Non Swing Voter]

Cannot wait til this stupid race is over and I don't have to see 3-4 Youngkin ads an hour on every channel. 

[One Term Floridian]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

[Progressive Pessimist]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

That probably will be true in 2022, but in 2020 and 2018 Virginia was way more Democratic than Iowa was Republican.

[Devils30]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

That probably will be true in 2022, but in 2020 and 2018 Virginia was way more Democratic than Iowa was Republican.

No it wasn't.

Iowa at Trump +8.2 while the popular vote was Biden +4.45 was 12.65% more R than the country.

Virginia at Biden +10.1 was 5.65% more D than the country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

Ehh I think VA has become about as blue as IA has become red

This is T-Mac's "hell yes" moment, but likely won't be as consequential.

This will affect McAuliffe as much as Soybeangate affected Ernst last year.

I hope you're right, but Iowa's a lot more Republican than Virginia is Democratic, and the polarization is asymmetric.

That probably will be true in 2022, but in 2020 and 2018 Virginia was way more Democratic than Iowa was Republican.

No it wasn't.

Iowa at Trump +8.2 while the popular vote was Biden +4.45 was 12.65% more R than the country.

Virginia at Biden +10.1 was 5.65% more D than the country.

But what about Warner and the other congressional elections?

[Roll Roons]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1445062470503129100

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1445062470503129100

That sounds hard, especially the NOVA part. 

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This aired last night during the Patriot-Buccaneers game.

[thebeloitmoderate]

WJLA has more Youngkin ads than Tmac ads and I can see why since it is owned by Sinclair (fox news of local TV)

[jamestroll]

Chaz nuttycombe says dems will lose 10 to 15 seats in the house of delegates.

[Mr.Phips]

Chaz nuttycombe says dems will lose 10 to 15 seats in the house of delegates.

He said that this is what would happen if Youngkin actually wins.

[wbrocks67]

Chaz nuttycombe says dems will lose 10 to 15 seats in the house of delegates.

He said that this is what would happen if Youngkin actually wins.

Why is jimmie in here posting wrong information then. Can people not?

[jamestroll]

If Trumpkin wins the HOD absolutely flips but I doubt it would end up 60 40 GOP. More like 54 to 46 or 55 to 45.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FWIW:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1445062470503129100

Eh, I could see him pulling off the flips, but hitting those benchmarks in NOVA is going to be very difficult.

[Devils30]

If Trumpkin wins the HOD absolutely flips but I doubt it would end up 60 40 GOP. More like 54 to 46 or 55 to 45.

The current HoD is a pretty fair map. The GOP gerrymander in 2011 is for a coalition that no longer exists.