Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Feeling a bit frustrated with the decision to do a primary, but given the last time there was a statewide Republican primary it was won by Corey Stewart, I can't blame them for trying a different tack this time.  And if there are multiple candidates, they can do a runoff.  I think it would be good if they choose a "firehouse" convention with multiple locations.

I don't see Chase pulling a lot of votes, but it's hard to be sure.

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https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20

Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

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https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Chase was convinced she couldn't win if it went to convention.  Plus her threat to run third-party I think will not sit well with people either.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1339210624602091520?s=20
Pete Snyder: businessman, active in GOP politics, founded the "Virginia 30 day fund" for loans to small businesses, outspoken on opening back up schools.   Seems he could have a good chance for the nomination if he jumps in.

He was the odds-on favorite for Lt. Governor in 2013, but then the convention delegates heard EW Jackson give a speech about Lighting a Flame for Liberty or some such, and flocked to him instead. He had these little plastic torches or candles.

I voted against him in all 4 rounds because I knew he'd be general election poison, but the nature of these things is that they only attract die-hards and crazy people. Because nobody else wants to spend an entire Saturday in some arena while they try to count votes.

So I'd say Amanda Chase's odds are pretty good with that crowd.

Chase was convinced she couldn't win if it went to convention.  Plus her threat to run third-party I think will not sit well with people either.

yea, can someone explain this to me? It seems to me that a convention plays to her advantage so why would she have thought it was an attempt to torpedo her campaign?

I got the impression there are a lot of influential people in the party she just does not get along with at all, but I don't know the details.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I've been getting flooded with anti-Chase mailers from Club for Growth.  Mainly focusing on her being disloyal to the party but apparently she was praised by the League of Conservation Voters or something at some point ?  Anyway, nothing in the mail telling me when or where to vote.  Had to figure that out myself. I didn't realize until today that it's this weekend. My location if I go would be about 20 minutes away.  Am I eligible to vote in it?   I have no idea.

No, you had to fill out a form to the state party and send it in to be eligible.  You've already failed.

Or maybe the VA GOP failed. The campaigns failed.
Like, where is this information?   Why are candidates and PACs spending so much money on ads to tell people who to vote for who are most likely clueless about the process, without doing anything to clue them in?
What's the game plan?  Intentional obscurity or incompetence or some combination?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Are they only counting one office at a time?  Why?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Sucks that T-Mac is going to run away with this nomination because JCF seems like one of the best gubernatorial candidates anywhere. She could've been a real model for black women to win statewide in 2022 (Abrams, Beasley, etc.) but old white men just can't give up their power.

black voters seem to have stuck with McAuliffe about as much as whites. Heavily black precincts in Norfolk went 70%+ for both McAuliffe and Jones.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

saying "Trumpkin" isn't clever, fyi

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

There was some school board meeting in Virginia Beach that had a lot of yokels screaming about masks as if it was child abuse to have kids wear them a few hours a day in school.  It's legitimately scary to me that these people live in the same state.  That said, all these nonsense issues the GOP is trying to stir up will backfire spectacularly.  It's going to turn off the exact demographic Trumpkin needs to improve on to win. 

Anyone who is that keen on forcing six year olds to breathe through a mask all day is going to vote Democrat anyway.

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https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1422692857283022850?s=20


Why can't they just agree on some debates, what's going on here?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I am terrified that  that after the election that Trumpkin supporters will come and invade Nova, Richmond, Charlottesville and Norfolk...

what on earth are you talking about?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This aired last night during the Patriot-Buccaneers game.

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Here are the interviews.

https://wjla.com/news/local/watch-7news-goes-one-on-one-with-virginia-gubernatorial-candidates-terry-mcauliffe-glenn-youngkin

McAuliffe answered yes when asked if he would mandate COVID vaccine for kids in schools.  Not sure why he thinks viewers wouldn't care about that, or crime, or education.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1451896196923068424

It's beyond embarrassing Biden can't legally fire Trump's lobbyist Louis DeJoy as head of the Postal Service. The guy is just a rich donor doing the Republicans' bidding to undermine vote by mail. So much for a draining the swamp.

What's embarrassing is that Democrats are so intent on blaming the USPS's troubles on a Trump appointee that they have completely ignored doing anything about its longstanding financial difficulties.

And if they really do not trust the Post Office, they could have put up ballot drop boxes in every precinct across the state.  But most places, including major Democrat-dominant cities in Hampton Roads, just have one per city/county.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If any Republican ends up winning in Virginia it will only be because they stole the election, like they did to Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, Joe Biden, and Brexit.  If you disagree it's because you are a right-wing extremist.

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https://twitter.com/PollWatch2020/status/1453898421711032320?s=20

seems like a counterproductive thing to say.

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Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029

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Thanks for sharing Vaccinated Russian Bear...

These look more updated than the data a VA poster shared some 15 pages or so back when I asked if anyone had benchmarks to look for.

I didn't want to go and manually transcribe all of his numbers into percentages, but here are some samples for rough %s that Youngkin would need to hit for a win:

I took some random rural counties as well as some of the "key counties / cities to watch"

Albemarle:  37%
Amerherst: 72%
Augusta:    77%
Bedford:    78%
Brunswick: 48%
Campbell: 77%
Chesapeake: 51%
Chesterfield: 51%
Culpepper: 65%
Frederick: 69%
Hampton: 32%
Henrico: 40%
James City: 52%
Lynchburg: 55%
Montgomery: 51%
Newport News: 38%
Norfolk: 32%
Pittsylvania: 74%
Prince William: 42%
Richmond City: 20%
Roanoke County: 66%
Spotsylvania: 59%
Stafford: 54%
Virginia Beach: 52%
York: 58%

For Hampton Roads cities I think it's realistically more like:
Virginia Beach:  53% of two party vote
Chesapeake: 52%
Suffolk: 46%
Newport News: 36%
Hampton: 30%
Portsmouth: 30%
Norfolk: 28%

Chesapeake & VB are more elastic than the others.  If Youngkin is getting more than 30% in Norfolk he's most likely winning by a comfortable margin statewide.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

don't agree with some of Bill Scher's framing of the issues themselves, but he's right that CRT is being overblown as the supposed central issue of the campaign and the reason Youngkin is competitive
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2021/10/29/glenn-youngkins-cheerful-culture-war/

No doubt if Youngkin wins, or barely loses, the preponderance of hot takes will be along these lines—that backlash over critical race theory and policies toward transgender students reversed Virginia’s 21st-century blue trend. But such hasty conclusions would gloss over much of what Youngkin has done right and what former Democratic Governor Terry McAuliffe has done wrong to make the race competitive.

Yes, it’s true that Youngkin has said he would ban critical race theory in Virginia classrooms (even though it isn’t taught in Virginia classrooms). And he has defended a Loudoun County teacher who refuses to address transgender students by their preferred pronouns. But contrary to Hochman’s implication, Youngkin took those stances back in the spring.

In the Real Clear Politics poll average, McAuliffe’s margin has steadily ticked downward, from a five-point lead on October 1 to about a one-point lead a week before the election. What happened just before that decline? McAuliffe foolishly said in a September 28th debate, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”

McAuliffe didn’t say that in regard to critical race theory or gender identity policies, but in regard to books containing sexually explicit content assigned by teachers and available in school libraries. Youngkin had just referenced a recent controversy, fueled by parents at a school board meeting, about two books in Fairfax County’s high school libraries that had such content. (On the day of the debate, the two books were temporarily removed from the libraries, pending a formal review.) And Youngkin criticized McAuliffe for vetoing a bill when he was governor that would have given parents the ability to opt their children out of assignments dealing with books that had sexually explicit content. “You believe school systems should tell children what to do,” said Youngkin. “I believe parents should be in charge of their kids’ education.”

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are were in person school full time as late as June.

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

another under-discussed issue on the education front:  less than half of Virginia students are in person school full time

https://twitter.com/ifihadastick/status/1455319645154693126?s=20

Isn't that during the Spring?

I assume its 95% now?

huh, I guess you're right. I'm not sure what the current number is.  Still having them out of in-person school for so long is an issue of dissatisfaction for a lot of people.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/northern-virginia/distance-learning-required-in-loudoun-county-due-to-staffing-shortages/2862914/

Students in Loudoun County, Virginia, will have distance learning this week due to staffing shortages.

Wednesday and Friday will be distance learning days, the superintendent said. Monday, Tuesday and Thursday were already planned days off for student and staff holidays.

Loudon parents were greeted with this news this morning.  Not great for Terry.