2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315784494742482945?s=20

Beat me to it!

Possibilities:
Texas to Lean R
Alaska to Lean R
Maine to Lean D
North Carolina to Lean D
Michigan to Tossup (they did move Jersey to a tossup in 2018...)

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315784494742482945?s=20

Beat me to it!

Possibilities:
Texas to Lean R
Alaska to Lean R
Maine to Lean D
North Carolina to Lean D
Michigan to Tossup (they did move Jersey to a tossup in 2018...)

I think your first 3 are on the money. 

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315784494742482945?s=20

Beat me to it!

Possibilities:
Texas to Lean R
Alaska to Lean R
Maine to Lean D
North Carolina to Lean D
Michigan to Tossup (they did move Jersey to a tossup in 2018...)

I’m guessing AK, ME, and MI move.

[Benjamin Frank]

These are all of the U.S House candidate fundraising figures that have been updated to September 30, 2020 per opensecrets.org from states alphabetically A-M

(From the site: Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics. For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: info@crp.org)

1.Daniel Wood (R) Arizona 3rd, $28,193
2.Delina Di Santo (D) Arizona 4th, 57,850
3.Dave Giles (R) Arizona 9th, 117,481
4.David Valadao (R) California 21st, 2,451,751
5.Mike Garcia (R) California 25th, 4,376,339 (including special election fundraising)
6.James Bradley (R) California 33rd, 70,987
7.Brian Maryott (R) California 49th, 1,751,07
8.Juan Vargas (D) California 51st, 657,519
9.Steve House (R) Colorado 6th, 795,332
10.Mary Fay (R) Connecticut 1st, 24,606
11.Lee Murphy (R) Delaware-AL, 86,098
12.Dana Cottrell (D) Florida 11th, 47,444
13.Anna Paulina Luna (R) Florida 13th, 1,028,818
14.Alcee Hastings (D) Florida 20th, 563,063
15.Greg Musselwhite (R) Florida 20th, 27,458
16.Carlos Gimenez (R) Florida 26th, 1,197,546
17.Maria Salazar (R) Florida 27th, 1,913,397
18.Karen Handel (R) Georgia 6th, 1,929,103
19.Liz Johnson (D) Georgia 12th, 60,844
20.Ed Case (D) Hawaii 1st, 548,319
21.Joe Akana (R), Hawaii 2nd, 44,116
22.Mike Simpson (R) Idaho 2nd, 908,277
23.Mike Fricilone (R) Illinois 3rd, 91,360
24.Sargis Sangari (R) Illinois 9th, 27,099
25.Dani Brzozowksi (D) Illinois 16th, 374,524
26.Adam Kinzinger (R) Illinois 16th, 1,894,277
27.Chip Coldiron (D) Indiana 3rd, 60,943
28.Ashley Hinson (R) Iowa 1st, 2,734,634
29.Marianennette Miller-Meeks (R) Iowa 2nd, 909,027
30.David Young (R) Iowa 3rd, 2,001,651
31.Amanda Adkins (R) Kansas 3rd, 1,003,740
32.Brett Guthrie (R) Kentucky 2nd, 1,220,116
33.Rhonda Palazzo (R) Kentucky 3rd, 28,438
34.Cande Christophe (D) Louisiana 5th, 48,391
35.Helen Brady (R) Massachusetts 9th, 13,983
36.Eric Esshaki (R) Michigan 11th, 449,659
37.Tyler Kistner (R) Minnesota 3rd, 1,108,895
38.Collin Peterson (D) Minnesota 7th, 2,142,028
39.Ryan Derks (R) Missouri 5th, 57,114
40.Billy Long R) Missouri 7th, 1,252,040

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I can see Webb winning this. Good is an awful fundraiser too.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1315967812989575168

[Roll Roons]

I got 2/3 right.

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1315989156435316736

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1316005411330363393?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1316005411330363393?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

Oh give me a break.  Vote against Trump, but vote for a House member that votes with him nearly 100% of the time.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hope people aren't dumb enough to believe that

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Campa-Najjar in 2018: Medicare for All is a moral imperative. Trust me, I'm progressive.
Campa-Najjar in 2019: Medicare for All isn't practical. I will now don my moderate outfit!
Campa-Najjar in 2020:

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1316040958438408192

[Xing]

Republican are a "check" on Biden in the same way that starvation is a "check" on overeating.

[VAR]

Mowers (NH-01) raised $668k in Q3, Pappas raised $700k.

https://www.wmur.com/article/mowers-reports-raising-dollar668k-in-third-quarter-most-ever-by-a-republican-nh01-candidate-in-period/34361237

Edit:

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1316045097654419458

[Benjamin Frank]

Campa-Najjar in 2018: Medicare for All is a moral imperative. Trust me, I'm progressive.
Campa-Najjar in 2019: Medicare for All isn't practical. I will now don my moderate outfit!
Campa-Najjar in 2020:

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1316040958438408192

The only good thing you can say about him is that he'd still be better than Darrell Issa.  Of course, there is no third party candidate in that district due to the top two candidate California thing.

[Benjamin Frank]

Completing up to last night's reporting. These are all of the U.S House candidate fundraising figures that have been updated to September 30, 2020 per opensecrets.org from states alphabetically N-W (I wouldn't mind a state that started with 'Z'.)

(From the site: Feel free to distribute or cite this material, but please credit the Center for Responsive Politics. For permission to reprint for commercial uses, such as textbooks, contact the Center: info@crp.org)

1.Matt Mowers (R) New Hampshire 1st, $727,836
2.Albio Sires (D) New Jersey 8th, 479,930
3.Rosemary Becchi (R) New Jersey 11th, 865,117
4.Douglas Tuman (R) New York 4th, 63,320
5.Nicole Malliotakis (R) New York 11th, 2,817,123
6.Claudia Tenney (R) New York 22nd, 942,777
7.Christopher Ward (D) North Carolina 7th, 16,260
8.David Parker (D) North Carolina 10th, 19,059
9.Nick Rubando (D)Ohio 5th, 225,508
10.Quentin Potter (D) Ohio 7th, 10,843
11.Tim Ryan (D) Ohio 13th, 1,447,629
12.Stephanie Bice (R) Oklahoma 5th, 1,511,954
13.Joanna Harbour (R) Oregon 3rd, 10,774
14.Jim Bognet (R) Pennsylvania 8th, 589,381
15.Gary Wegman (D) Pennsylvania 9th, 110,503
16.Sean Parnell (R) Pennsylvania 17th, 1,233,124
17.Chuck Fleischmann (R) Tennessee 3rd, 939,273
18.Steven Cohen (D) Tennessee 9th, 557,989
19.Nick Freitas (R) Virginia 7h, 1,063,243
20.Aliscia Andrews (R) Virginia 10th, 345,478
21.Doug McKinley (D) Washington 4th, 52,844
22.Jesse Jensen (R) Washington 8th, 217,971
23.Catherine Kunkel (D) West Virginia 2nd, 509,918
24.Derrick Van Orden (R) Wisconsin 3rd, 739,140

Edit to add
I misplaced the page I wrote these on last night
25.Louis Gohmert (R) Texas 1st, 481,753
26.Wesley Hunt (R) Texas 7th, 3,141,086
27.Johny Teague (R) Texas 9th, 73,529
28.Troy Nehls (R) Texas 22nd, 509,005
29.Carol  Iannuzzi (D) Texas 26th, 113,956
30.Demetrick Pennie (R) Texas 30th, 207,126
31.Genevieve Collins (R) Texas 32nd, 2,659,028
32.Fabian Cordova Vasquez (R) Texas 33rd, 32,721
33.John Kael Weston (D) Utah 2nd, 280,947

[Benjamin Frank]

So, 73 candidates had their latest financial reports on opensecrets, 51 Republicans and 22 Democrats (as of last night.)  

Not many Democrats, the only one I have a comment on is Catherine Kunkel in West Virginia 2nd.  I have the fundraising figures up to June 30th written down, but I haven't looked at them yet, but I believe she raised something like $260,000 in the 3rd quarter.  I doubt she'll win, but she is reasonably competitive.

On the Republican side.
1.I'm surprised with Mariannette Miller-Meeks disappointing fundraising relative to Ashley Hinson and David Young.  Iowa 2nd is the only Democratic competitive open district and the polls show her to be much more competitive than either Hinson or Young.

2.Erik Esshaki doesn't seem to be making his challenge competitive and nor does Aliscia Andrews, both against 1st term Democrats.

3.Jesse Jensen received a brief bounce in publicity after the primary results, but he clearly hasn't parlayed that into fundraising.

[Benjamin Frank]

Another 26 are now reporting on opensecrets.org bringing the total to 99.  Most reporting are Republicans.

Added today
1.Tiffany Shedd (R) Arizona 1st, $666,666
2.Michelle Steel (R) California 48th, 3,381,778
3.Leo Valentin (R) Florida 7th, 527,643
4.Jesus Garcia (D) Illinois 4th, 757,319
5.Jeanne Ives (R) Illinois 6th, 1,581,162
6.Jim Oberweis (R) Illinois 14th, 1,451,625
7.Esther Joy King (R) Illinois 17th, 914,610
8.Dale Crafts (R) Maine 2nd, 388,313
9.Kendall Qualls (R) Minnesota 3rd, 896,023
10.Michelle Fischbach (R) Minnesota 7th, 1,053,824
11.Jim Marchant (R) Nevada 4th, 612,008
12.David Richter (R) New Jersey 3rd, 840,958
13.Frank Pallotta (R) New Jersey 5th, 719,748
14.Tom Kean Jr (R) New Jersey 7th, 2,121,458
15.Yvette Herrell (R) New Mexico 2nd, 1,285,113
16.Chele Farley (R) New York 18th, 900,578
17.Kyle Van De Water (R) New York 19th, 54,089
18.Alma Adams (D) North Carolina 12th, 711,610
19.Jaime Castle (D) Ohio 2nd, 236,572
20.Alek Skarlatos (R) Oregon 4th, 1,343,220
21.Tony Gonzales (R) Texas 23rd, 1,160,880
22.Beth Van Duyne (R) Texas 24th, 1,431,965
23.Darren Parry (D) Utah 1st, 30,346
24.Bugess Owens (R) Utah 4th, 845,554
25.Scott Taylor (R) Virginia 2nd, 930,389
26.Jessica King (D) Wisconsin 6th, 241,164

This makes 72 Republicans and 27 Democrats having reported and posted on opensecrets.org.

[new_patomic]

I'm not really understanding the polling right now.

Besides the noticeable divergence between some state polls versus national polls, whatever district polls have been released (even if they're mostly partisan internals) look far more favorable than what the GCB would suggest. And both parties seem pretty sure that most of the front-line members are doing pretty well, or at worst are looking at 50/50 odds.

[wbrocks67]

I'm not really understanding the polling right now.

Besides the noticeable divergence between some state polls versus national polls, whatever district polls have been released (even if they're mostly partisan internals) look far more favorable than what the GCB would suggest. And both parties seem pretty sure that most of the front-line members are doing pretty well, or at worst are looking at 50/50 odds.

Because we're not really getting any high quality GCB polling. All we're getting is like Morning Consult and YouGov. MC has ranged from 5-7, YouGov anywhere from 7-12, while USC tracker has been steady at D+8

[Landslide Lyndon]

Queen.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1316434929920675842

[Benjamin Frank]

Another 33 are now reporting on opensecrets.org bringing the total to 132.  Most reporting are Republicans.

1.Rick Neighbors (D) Alabama 4th, $30,394
2.Ted Howze (R) California 10th, 1,035,709
3.David Kim (D) California 34th, 163,293
4.Alan Lowenthal (D) California 47th, 607,531
5.Scott Peters (D) California 52nd, 1,736,622
6.Phil Ehr (D) Florida 1st, 1,439,244
7.Gary Adler (R) Florida 5th, 110,267
8.Drew Ferguson (R) Georgia 3rd, 2,162,803
9.Richard Allen (R) Georgia 12th, 1,050,474
10.Becky Hites (R) Georgia 13th, 51,249
11.Greg Pence (R) Indiana 6th, 2,757,982
12.Johnny Ray Salling (R) Maryland 2nd, 50,116
13.Chris Polombi (R) Maryland 5th, 39,122
14.Gregory Coll (R) Maryland 8th, 17,095
15.Gena Ross (D) Missouri 6th, 7,512
16.Dan Rodimer (R) Nevada 3rd, 940,724
17.Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) New Mexico 1st, 338,247
18.G.K Butterfield (D) North Carolina 1st, 869,445
19.Sandy Smith (R) North Carolina 1st, 1,270,069
20.Virginia Foxx (R) North Carolina 5th 1,679,015
21.Joseph Lee Haywood (R) North Carolina 6th, 58,338
22.Bob Gibbs (R) Ohio 7th, 750,195
23.Marcia Fudge (D) Ohio 11th, 628,213
24.Kojo Asamoa-Caesar (D) Oklahoma 1st, 135,544
25.Amy Ryan Courser (R) Oregon 5th, 170,468
26.Meg Gorman (D) Tennessee 3rd, 74,311
27.Scott Desjarlais (R) Tennessee 4th, 305,959
28.Jim Cooper (D) Tennesee 5th, 848,024
29.Chip Roy (R) Texas 21st, 4,186,407
30.John Curtis (R) Utah 3rd, 774,544
31.Don Beyer (D) Virginia 8th, 1,587,100
32.Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia 2nd, 1,847,870
33.Peter Theron (R) Wisconsin 2nd, 36,365

In total, 93 Republicans and 39 Democrats have reported as per Opensecrets.org

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Queen.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1316434929920675842

She might not even be in the house for much longer as she could take kamala’s seat or go into a high rank in a Biden administration.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1316397064666972161?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%...

[VAR]

More Q3 totals:

-Jason Lewis (MN-SEN): $2.5M ($1.4M cash on hand)
-Pam Keith (FL-18): $938K
-Tyler Kistner (MN-02): $1.4M
-Dana Balter (NY-24): $1.3M ($280k cash on hand)

[Landslide Lyndon]

That went well.

https://twitter.com/MaxRose4NY/status/1316522891438182400

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That went well.

https://twitter.com/MaxRose4NY/status/1316522891438182400

Fugly karen