2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 168384 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1800 on: October 02, 2020, 11:23:51 AM »
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VAR
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« Reply #1801 on: October 02, 2020, 12:44:37 PM »
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1802 on: October 02, 2020, 01:42:00 PM »
Monmouth is releasing a poll of NJ-02 on Monday:



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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1803 on: October 02, 2020, 02:42:14 PM »
Quote from: Concerned Trump Supporters against Conspiracy Theorist Ernst on October 02, 2020, 12:44:37 PM


Those are some good-looking candidates.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1804 on: October 02, 2020, 03:54:31 PM »
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Gracile
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« Reply #1805 on: October 02, 2020, 04:14:07 PM »
Cook Political is moving OR-04 from Likely D to Lean D:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/oregon-house/rating-change-defazios-or-04-moves-likely-lean-democrat
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1806 on: October 02, 2020, 04:28:07 PM »
Wow, CLF and SLF are really taking on those #populists  Purple heart first Ron Kind, then Gary Peters, now DeFazio.
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Lognog
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« Reply #1807 on: October 02, 2020, 04:31:46 PM »

literally why
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1808 on: October 02, 2020, 06:10:40 PM »
That's good - doesn't he have stage 4 cancer?

Quote from: Concerned Trump Supporters against Conspiracy Theorist Ernst on October 02, 2020, 03:54:31 PM
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #1809 on: October 02, 2020, 09:45:46 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 02, 2020, 06:10:40 PM
That's good - doesn't he have stage 4 cancer?

Quote from: Concerned Trump Supporters against Conspiracy Theorist Ernst on October 02, 2020, 03:54:31 PM


Kidney cancer, specifically. It's one of the very few cancers that can be survived relatively reliably from stage 4 (see Mazie Hirono), but obviously COVID would still have absurdly high mortality for him.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1810 on: October 03, 2020, 02:02:01 AM »
Adair Ford Boroughs (SC-02) raised $800K.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/boroughs-posts-record-fundraising-numbers-topping-opponents-numbers-from-last-10-years/ar-BB19xOQj?ocid=uxbndlbing
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1811 on: October 04, 2020, 12:31:47 PM »
RRH has fully careened off the cliff in analysis:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/10/03/rrh-elections-early-october-2020-house-ratings/
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WD
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« Reply #1812 on: October 04, 2020, 12:50:42 PM »

Who makes this horsesh**t?

-Fitzpatrick more likely to win than Boebert
-TX-07 a tossup (L M A O)
-NC-01 Likely D? Excuse me? What?
-CA-21 at Tilt R. Jesus Christ
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1813 on: October 04, 2020, 01:00:18 PM »

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1814 on: October 04, 2020, 01:07:06 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 04, 2020, 01:00:18 PM

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.

CA-21 and FL-26 are not among the most likely seats to flip R, especially with Biden winning them by double digits
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1815 on: October 04, 2020, 01:14:26 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 04, 2020, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 04, 2020, 01:00:18 PM

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.

CA-21 and FL-26 are not among the most likely seats to flip R, especially with Biden winning them by double digits

Hmm. After being skeptical early this year I am now pretty convinced that Trump is seeing real improvement with Hispanic voters, especially in S Florida. I'm personally more bearish than most on CA-21/FL-26/FL-27/TX-23 for that reason so I would disagree with you there but it's really something we can't know until the results are in. I believe Nate Cohn from the NYT had a twitter thread about how undecided Hispanics broke late in 2018 towards the Democrats and messed up some of his polling, I could definitely see that happen again.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1816 on: October 04, 2020, 01:19:38 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 04, 2020, 01:14:26 PM
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 04, 2020, 01:07:06 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on October 04, 2020, 01:00:18 PM

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.

CA-21 and FL-26 are not among the most likely seats to flip R, especially with Biden winning them by double digits

Hmm. After being skeptical early this year I am now pretty convinced that Trump is seeing real improvement with Hispanic voters, especially in S Florida. I'm personally more bearish than most on CA-21/FL-26/FL-27/TX-23 for that reason so I would disagree with you there but it's really something we can't know until the results are in. I believe Nate Cohn from the NYT had a twitter thread about how undecided Hispanics broke late in 2018 towards the Democrats and messed up some of his polling, I could definitely see that happen again.

That sounds like Nate Cohn making excuses. TX-23 was never a double digit race in Hurd’s favor in 2018. The polling was just sh**t
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1817 on: October 05, 2020, 06:59:39 AM »
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1818 on: October 05, 2020, 08:19:49 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 08:24:01 AM by VARepublican »


Raised $541k in Q2.
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VAR
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« Reply #1819 on: October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 08:47:54 AM by VARepublican »


Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1820 on: October 05, 2020, 08:48:54 AM »
Freitas raised $1.8M

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519599-spanbergers-gop-challenger-raises-over-18-million-in-third-quarter#.X3sj137aPwc.twitter
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1821 on: October 05, 2020, 08:50:21 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM


Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1822 on: October 05, 2020, 08:52:41 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 05, 2020, 08:50:21 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM

Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.

I think Bice is the one who broke OK records

And it’s not great that she raised less than a no name challenger in TX-02
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1823 on: October 05, 2020, 09:05:11 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 05, 2020, 08:50:21 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM

Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.

I think Bice is the one who broke OK records

And it’s not great that she raised less than a no name challenger in TX-02

Of course, that no-name challenger is also taking on a polarizing political figure who galvanizes a particular segment of the Democratic base (Dan Crenshaw) - which explains some of the high amounts of money for his opponent. It seems like we have reached a weird point where $1M is seen as a subpar fundraising total when it is still a significant sum - especially in less expensive markets like OKC.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1824 on: October 05, 2020, 09:10:30 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 05, 2020, 08:50:21 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM

Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.

I think Bice is the one who broke OK records

And it’s not great that she raised less than a no name challenger in TX-02

Pretty sure TX is a lot more expensive than OK.
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