2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The DCCC released a poll one week ago that asked about Trump's job approval in a number of battleground districts:

https://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/One-Year-Out.pdf

> NY-11 48-48

> OK-5 49-49

This is exactly the kind of quality polling I expect from Democratic internal polls

I mean he's like -13 avg around the country, so those look right. Doesn't mean he is gonna lose the seats, but the approval and disapproval look about right.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2019/11/12/filing-closes-today-democrats-searching-for-congressional-candidates

Likely R, but someone credible is running.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/davereaboi/status/1217886842990755842

Bleh, disgusted to call her a fellow muslim, Trumpist sellout! Sad!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/davereaboi/status/1217886842990755842

Bleh, disgusted to call her a fellow muslim, Trumpist sellout! Sad!

Because you can’t be both a republican and a muslim ?

I mean you can be, but who am I not to judge?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

FL-18: Rep. Brian Mast (R) raised $764K in Q4, has $1.2M on hand-

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/316483-mast-2019-1-2m-on-hand

Unnecessary

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This one is older but I have not seen anybody post it yet, but Allred raised 663k in quarter 4 of 2019 and has 1.9 million on hand.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/01/13/genevieve-collins-colin-allred-lead-in-fundraising-in-critical-congressional-race/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So far 2020 is looking like 2008 at the congressional level (with 2018 being 2006 of course), rather than a reversion to a more neutral environment like 2012 and 2016 were. This could change, but Democrats have been polling at blue wave levels basically since Trump took office so it doesn't seem likely to change.

im old enough to remember when impeachment was supposed to doom democrats

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

Absolutely 100%.



It is pretty incredible that I would only rate 13/36 federal house districts as Safe R in Texas. I will be completely honest, places like TX 25 and TX 6 are not flipping this time, but they are not Safe R. If this map was left in place indefinitely (it wont be) I would expect Democrats to have a 23-13 dem delegation by 2031. It would be a total dummymander (it already is sort of even now) Even places like TX 26 and TX 17 would shift out of the Safe R column (though I'd still give them to the GOP even then).

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

Absolutely 100%.



It is pretty incredible that I would only rate 13/36 federal house districts as Safe R in Texas. I will be completely honest, places like TX 25 and TX 6 are not flipping this time, but they are not Safe R. If this map was left in place indefinitely (it wont be) I would expect Democrats to have a 23-13 dem delegation by 2031. It would be a total dummymander (it already is sort of even now) Even places like TX 26 and TX 17 would shift out of the Safe R column (though I'd still give them to the GOP even then).

Another sleeper Texas seat is the 27th which is already majority Hispanic (40% non-Hispanic White).

I am going to have to disagree. It does not match the profile of recent flips, it is not trending D, and no real recent elections have been close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1276497038658715654

Would love to see prez #s here. Would not be surprised if Good lost in November.

> taking a D internal that shows their own candidate down 2 as a good sign for Dems

aight lemme know when the gop gets even an internal that has a republican only trailing by 2 in a D+6 seat that HRC won by 11.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%

booooooo, did this @sshole not poll the sen race?!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

Troy Balderson is a total power bottom daddy so you are correct.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

Troy Balderson is a total power bottom daddy so you are correct.

He is a total chad who could bench press a whole mountain, don't even both trying to go after him Democrats.

Yeah, he is a total raw piece of meat

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It was a fake poll put forth by some pipsqueak

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/FloridaDude297/status/1304549147266158595

yeye

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1314533978876055553?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...
Endorsed Clinton in 2016 and O’Rourke & Sessions in 2018.

That was the final straw for me to unsubscribe from those useless pieces of sh**t as a longtime reader.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/we-recommend/2020/10/12/our-recommendation-for-the-32nd-congressional-district/

Dallas Morning News endorses Allred for reelection after backing Sessions in 2018. Step in the right direction, but I am still pissed at them for endorsing Van Duyne, and won't uncancel my subscription.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/we-recommend/2020/10/12/our-recommendation-for-the-32nd-congressional-district/

Dallas Morning News endorses Allred for reelection after backing Sessions in 2018. Step in the right direction, but I am still pissed at them for endorsing Van Duyne, and won't uncancel my subscription.

How could they endorse someone like Van Duyne? She makes Michelle Bachmann look sane.

Muah experience and stuff, total bs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Queen.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1316434929920675842

She might not even be in the house for much longer as she could take kamala’s seat or go into a high rank in a Biden administration.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That went well.

https://twitter.com/MaxRose4NY/status/1316522891438182400

Fugly karen