2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[ProgressiveModerate]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

NC should be lean D and I'm keeping IASEN at tilt D for now, but for perspective:

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1318579488398036993
I don't expect Selzer to be consistently wrong; at least, probably not to that extent. They did not overestimate either candidate's final numbers but just did not factor in the undecided voters' Republican lean.

In general, it seems like undecides in IA break about 2 - 1 for the Republican at best. Using that rule for 2020, it seems like this senate race will be a nail-biter.

[MT Treasurer]

This ratings change is very, very dumb even by Sabato's standards. Even if Ernst loses, there’s no universe in which MT-SEN is Lean R (lol at the idea that Bullock is far less likely to win than Greenfield), TX-SEN is Likely R (cute, #weak Rosen Hegar I guess?), GA-R is Lean R (it’s just not there yet?), AZ is only Lean D (overrated Kelly/another astroNUT lost in 2018?), etc. while Greenfield is favored to flip the IA seat.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/WasonCenter/status/1318636860298715136

Should be interesting - they were way off in 2018. Had Taylor +7 around this time.

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2018-10-15-taylor-luria-survey/

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1318710956957061121

Anyone have any guesses?

As per usual this cycle, my guess is that most, if not all, will be in favor of Dems. I'm thinking some possibilities are VA-02, IA-02 and TX-24 from Tossup to Lean D, CO-03 and MN-01 to Tossup, MI-08, MI-11 and PA-08 to Likely D. Beyond that, no clue. Maybe also a couple currently listed as Safe R that move into Likely.

[LimoLiberal]

Predictions for Cook rating changes tomorrow:

VA-02: Tossup -> Lean D
IA-01: Tossup -> Lean D
MI-08: Lean D -> Likely D
MI-11: Lean D -> Likely D
TX-24: Tossup -> Lean D (D GAIN)
IN-05: Tossup -> Lean D (D GAIN)
AR-02: Lean R -> Tossup
MI-03: Lean R -> Tossup
TX-02: Likely R -> Lean R
PA-17: Lean D -> Likely D
NJ-05: Likely D -> Safe D

[Gracile]

Some guesses:

KS-03 to Safe D
GA-06, MI-11, PA-08 to Likely D
NY-11, TX-24 to Lean D
AR-02, IL-13, MI-03, TX-10 to Tossup
TX-02, TX-25 to Lean R

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1318593900685283328

[wbrocks67]

VA-02 should definitely be at least lean Lean D after that poll today.

Would love for PA-16 to move from Likely R to Lean R, but I know it's a stretch.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/1318593900685283328

TX-02 isn't one of the ratings they changed, but, while it's clearly a Likely R race, I don't see any way Crenshaw wins by 20 points like 538 thinks he will.

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1318890789343285254

Full list of changes

[Mr.Phips]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1318890789343285254

Full list of changes

Will be interesting to see if any Lean R seats actually flip.

[new_patomic]

Bustos to Lean-D makes little sense to me, given the best indication we have of the race is suspect Republican internals which still shows her up by 5/6 points. But whatever.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Could anyone please write out the list of changes? I can't see tweets on my work computer.

[skbl17]

Could anyone please write out the list of changes? I can't see tweets on my work computer.

In Dems' direction:

- CA-50 (to Lean R from Likely R)
- FL-26 (to Lean D from Tossup)
- GA-6 (to Likely D from Lean D)
- IL-13 (to Tossup from Lean R)
- KS-3 (to Solid D from Likely D)
- MI-3 (to Tossup from Lean R)
- MN-1 (to Tossup from Lean R)
- MN-2 (to Likely D from Lean D)
- NC-9 (to Lean R from Likely R)
- VA-2 (to Lean D from Tossup)
- WA-3 (to Lean R from Likely R)

In Reps' direction:

- IL-17 (to Lean D from Likely D)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1318890789343285254

Full list of changes

Will be interesting to see if any Lean R seats actually flip.

PA-01, TX-03, and TX-10 seem like the likeliest in that category. TX-02 and TX-31 in the "Likely R" category (nonsensical ratings since Biden is no worse than 50-50 to win those seats

[Landslide Lyndon]

How long did they keep FL-26 a toss up? One month?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL!!!! MN-01 is not flipping even in a double digit popular vote win. On the flipside, TX 10 and PA 01 should be Tossup. The turnout in Harris county is through the roof and that is not a good sign for McCaul. PA-01 could stay R but Wallace was an exceptionally bad candidate

[politicallefty]

I’m thinking a good night for Republicans is one where they keep losses to single digits in the House. If things stay the same and are on the current trajectory, I’m looking at around +15-20 for Democrats, possibly more. That’s the high end of what IE is predicting, but I think the suburbs are going to turn in a nasty result for Republicans down-ballot. One of the big questions is going to be whether the incoming Democratic Majority in the House is bigger than the one after the 2008 election.

[wbrocks67]

How long did they keep FL-26 a toss up? One month?

was thinking the same thing. seemed very overreactive

[Mr.Phips]

I’m thinking a good night for Republicans is one where they keep losses to single digits in the House. If things stay the same and are on the current trajectory, I’m looking at around +15-20 for Democrats, possibly more. That’s the high end of what IE is predicting, but I think the suburbs are going to turn in a nasty result for Republicans down-ballot. One of the big questions is going to be whether the incoming Democratic Majority in the House is bigger than the one after the 2008 election.

Let’s not raise expectations here.  I’m still only predicting a Dem gain of 10-12.

[Brittain33]

LOL!!!! MN-01 is not flipping even in a double digit popular vote win.

In his interview with the WaPo yesterday, Wasserman explicitly named southern Minnesota as a region where he's seen more Dem gains among non-college white voters than the average. He cited the Iron Range as a counter-example where Trump is still doing well with them. So this is a case where his shift is informed by specific information.

(editing to add "counter" to example to head off well-meaning people correcting me that the Iron Range isn't in southern Minnesota)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

LOL!!!! MN-01 is not flipping even in a double digit popular vote win. On the flipside, TX 10 and PA 01 should be Tossup. The turnout in Harris county is through the roof and that is not a good sign for McCaul. PA-01 could stay R but Wallace was an exceptionally bad candidate

The current PA-1 candidate is somehow even weaker than Scott Wallace, but 2020 is probably gonna be an even bigger wave than 2018.  If I had to guess, I’d say MN-1 flips and Fitzpatrick narrowly hangs on, but I’m not very confident about either prediction.  Also, if McCaul loses, it’ll be b/c of Travis County, not Harris County.  I’d say that TX-10 is right on the border between Tilt R and Lean R.  It could definitely flip though.

[Tekken_Guy]

I’m thinking a good night for Republicans is one where they keep losses to single digits in the House. If things stay the same and are on the current trajectory, I’m looking at around +15-20 for Democrats, possibly more. That’s the high end of what IE is predicting, but I think the suburbs are going to turn in a nasty result for Republicans down-ballot. One of the big questions is going to be whether the incoming Democratic Majority in the House is bigger than the one after the 2008 election.

A "good night" for Republicans involves beating incumbents not named Collin Peterson.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How long did they keep FL-26 a toss up? One month?

was thinking the same thing. seemed very overreactive

They always got to find one or two races to move to the other party so that they can claim to be non-partisan

[Gass3268]

How long did they keep FL-26 a toss up? One month?

was thinking the same thing. seemed very overreactive

They always got to find one or two races to move to the other party so that they can claim to be non-partisan

Cook does this, Crystal Ball and Inside Elections are more cut-throat.