2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Benjamin Frank]

On the other issue regarding Pete DeFazio, if he is re-elected, which I think is still most likely, he really needs to retire.  He was first elected to the U.S House in 1986.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

On the other issue regarding Pete DeFazio, if he is re-elected, which I think is still most likely, he really needs to retire.  He was first elected to the U.S House in 1986.

He's only 73 and his constituents seem to like him more than the average Democrat.

[Mr.Phips]

On the other issue regarding Pete DeFazio, if he is re-elected, which I think is still most likely, he really needs to retire.  He was first elected to the U.S House in 1986.

He needs to wait until 2024 to retire so Dems have a better chance of holding his seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

On the other issue regarding Pete DeFazio, if he is re-elected, which I think is still most likely, he really needs to retire.  He was first elected to the U.S House in 1986.

He needs to wait until 2024 to retire so Dems have a better chance of holding his seat.

He can retire in 2022 and it will give Dems an opportunity for a Eugene/Corvallis vote sink.  Skarlatos can easily pick up a SW Oregon seat without those college counties in it.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317172539609763840?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1317174808115818497?ref_src=twsrc%5Ego...

[VAR]

Dan Rodimer actually outraised Susie Lee by $400K.

[Xing]

I have a feeling ME-02 will be the MN-07 (2018) of this cycle. Polls show pie in the sky leads for Golden, and Republicans decide to concede the race, and while Golden ends up winning, it's by a very underwhelming margin, and it ends up closer than many races Republicans invested heavily in.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I have a feeling ME-02 will be the MN-07 (2018) of this cycle. Polls show pie in the sky leads for Golden, and Republicans decide to concede the race, and while Golden ends up winning, it's by a very underwhelming margin, and it ends up closer than many races Republicans invested heavily in.

Ikr! These people have learned nothing from 2018

[Landslide Lyndon]

It worked brilliantly for Claudia Tenney, so why not?

https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/1317523972121133059

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1318410519569682432?s=20

[Xing]

This seems a little premature, especially given IA polling (though the experts don’t ever seem to factor that in.) I’d understand making this move when he gets rid of the Toss-Up column altogether, but I definitely don’t buy IA-SEN flipping before NC-SEN, and polling doesn’t really back that up, either.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel like MT and NC both should've been moved left as well if that's the rating they're going to give IA.

[WD]

I think Greenfield wins (even with IA’s polling errors she has a 5% lead in the RCP average, which seems to be quite durable), but Lean D seems to be jumping the gun a bit. Also lol @ NC being less likely to flip than IA.

[wbrocks67]

This seems a little premature, especially given IA polling (though the experts don’t ever seem to factor that in.) I’d understand making this move when he gets rid of the Toss-Up column altogether, but I definitely don’t buy IA-SEN flipping before NC-SEN, and polling doesn’t really back that up, either.

Eh, it does though. Greenfield's polling average is nearly +5 right now. I mean, it's quite possible that the usual IA polling error doesn't really materialize this year. I have no idea if it will or won't, but it's not assured.

[wbrocks67]

It worked brilliantly for Claudia Tenney, so why not?

https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/1317523972121133059

It's like Scott Perry is trying to lose. This district is a straight tossup and he's acting as if he's in a R+20 seat.

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1318277691951427585

[SnowLabrador]

Iowa at Lean D is very premature. It's still Tilt R in my book.

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs GCB tracker steady at D+9, 52-43

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[ProgressiveModerate]

Iowa at Lean D is very premature. It's still Tilt R in my book.

Yep, I agree with you for once.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This seems a little premature, especially given IA polling (though the experts don’t ever seem to factor that in.) I’d understand making this move when he gets rid of the Toss-Up column altogether, but I definitely don’t buy IA-SEN flipping before NC-SEN, and polling doesn’t really back that up, either.

Eh, it does though. Greenfield's polling average is nearly +5 right now. I mean, it's quite possible that the usual IA polling error doesn't really materialize this year. I have no idea if it will or won't, but it's not assured.

IA polling average: Greenfield 47.09 - 43.66

NC polling average: Cunningham 46.67 - 41.55

And IA tends to be more off in Rs favor in general, though that isn't necessarily bound to be true.

What's interesting is that while Cunningham's lead is largely, there are fewer undecides in IA-Sen, though I think that's in large part because of that NYT and Emerson poll with a lot of undecided/3rd party in NC-Sen.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1318410519569682432?s=20

Wow, I definitely consider changing Iowa to Lean D pretty darn bold. Of course, I'm not going to complain, but that's pretty surprising imo.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

LOL. Even if Ernst wins, I feel like people still won't let go of Iowa being out of reach for Dems in high-level races until a few more losses at a minimum.

We should take the hint that if Biden and Greenfield can't win the state this year of all years, it's not coming back.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

NC should be lean D and I'm keeping IASEN at tilt D for now, but for perspective:

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1318579488398036993
I don't expect Selzer to be consistently wrong; at least, probably not to that extent. They did not overestimate either candidate's final numbers but just did not factor in the undecided voters' Republican lean.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/WasonCenter/status/1318636860298715136

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

NY-22 Fundraising Update:

Anthony Brindisi raised $1,500,438 this quarter, and has $1,187,627 left on hand.
Claudia Tenney raised $928,185 this quarter, and has $356,814 left on hand.

Claudia Tenney is having money problems, and this recent article (www.politico.com/news/2020/10/13/house-republicans-2020-outlook-429130) is starting to make a lot of sense. She complains about not having enough money to counter Brindisi's negative ads; it turns out she hardly has $350,000 left. Between this and the total lack of a presence in NY-19, the NRCC has completely dropped the ball in Upstate NY. Hard to see them netting any seats in the state this year, given how close NY-24 has proven to be.