2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So which incumbents are double-bunked or in competitive seats?

[Gass3268]

Does anyone know what seat was cut?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

California's first drafts were released:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1453071799110021123?s=20

Northern CA looks Dem favorable. Interesting that the Latino CD in San Diego is expanding north.

Yeah, with Butte and Yolo being in CA-01, it essentially becomes a Lean R seat.

I dunno if I'd go that far. It seems to have Chula Vista still, and the areas in Riverside being added aren't all that R.

[Greedo punched first]

Does anyone know what seat was cut?

Maybe Garamendi’s was cut? It’s the easiest one to cut that isn’t Lowenthal’s. It appears I will be moved from Lowenthal’s to Steel’s district, is that correct?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

[It’s so Joever]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Too many.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

[Mr.Phips]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone know what seat was cut?

Basically Karen Bass and Maxine Waters got merged, but I imagine there are double-bunkings and open seats elsewhere that I haven't yet picked up on.

[Greedo punched first]

Is Rancho Santa Margarita in Calvert’s district?

[Nyvin]

What would be Obernolte's district (former CA-8)?   The big San Bernardino  one?

[Devils30]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Wouldn’t be a bad long term trade for Dems. Issa is weaker than Steel and both probably trend D over time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12
Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+14
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

[Greedo punched first]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12
Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+13
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

Am I correct that West Garden Grove is in CA-48 and Rancho Santa Margarita is in CA-42?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12
Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+13
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

Am I correct that West Garden Grove is in CA-48 and Rancho Santa Margarita is in CA-42?

You can read a map as well as me. It's repulsive, no?

[Oryxslayer]

This serious looks like something a Dem legislature would put out, albeit one that actually cared about communities. You can't quite see it in the tweet but SoCal is very very good to the dems. The only real points of sadness might be the successors to the old 36th and the old 7th, and the old 10th takes in more whiter parts of San Joaquin.

North part. UC Davis with Chico must have been their guiding light. Old CA-02 along the coast gets takes in redder turf in exchange, which it can. The old CA-03 is now a Bay Area seat. Old CA-07 is once again marginal.



Two asian seats in the south bay, with the Successor to CA-20 crossing mountains in two points, very similar to some stuff I posted/drew here a year ago.



I think this is three Biden seats in the south valley now thanks to the successor to CA-23 becoming a white pack. CA-21 fully rural+bakersfeild might be better for the GOP for now though.



CA-25 fully in LA county with parts of LA city...goodbye Garcia.



The successor to CA-04 makes sense without the tail.



One AA seat in South LA...with Bass getting cut. I guessed correctly her mayor campaign was motivated by this. Also, no more West LA seat - something else I was right about last year.



Weird sprawling seat that succeeds CA-27 does not need to spawl. I expect this to change a lot cause there is no clear Asian seat around arcadia/Pasadena and the community is put between two seats.



I think every OC seat gets better for Dems long-term, thanks to the successor to CA-42 becoming even more of a GOP pack. Successor to CA-48 though might be better for Steele in the short term cause of the block community voting of the Vietnamese.  



The old CA-50 is divided up between the seats and this new one should be competitive from what others have drawn here.



Successor to CA-36 takes in some redder turf from San Bernardino when compared to the Riverside areas.




Obviously, if this isn't already clear: The map will change a bit between now and the final product thanks to citizen imput.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The RSM/Trabuco/Coto split from Porter's district is horrendous from a clean lines/COI standpoint but fantastic from a partisan standpoint.

[Greedo punched first]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12
Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+13
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

Am I correct that West Garden Grove is in CA-48 and Rancho Santa Margarita is in CA-42?

You can read a map as well as me. It's repulsive, no?

It appears that way. I don’t know why Rancho Santa Margarita would be in Calvert’s district. I understand why West Garden Grove would be in Steel’s (A Huntington Beach-Garden Grove-Westminster-Seal Beach-Fountain Valley) district makes sense for a north OC coast district (largely Asian and working class white). CA-42 with inland OC seems plain odd, but it helps Democrats nearby.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

[Vosem]

2 points left and basically the same seat leave Garcia in an OK position; it was possible for him to be given a Biden+20 seat or so. Given his 2020 performance he may do OK in Biden+12.

By contrast Issa became an underperformer by the mid-2010s and even though I generally think the GOP will be OK in Biden+6 seats I wonder if Issa specifically might not be doomed.

[Greedo punched first]

CA-42 taking in inland OC helps nearby Democrats. What’s the impact of CA-48 becoming more blue collar?

[S019]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

Fascinating. What about CA-51?

The vomit-inducing monstrosity they came up with going from Chula Vista to Needles?

Biden+36 -> Biden+21. That's the other thing flipping Issa.

Ah, just as I suspected. East County is just not large enough to really push it into the R column, far from enough.  And at least a very large minority, perhaps a majority, of the people in it are probably still in urban San Diego County.

Yeah. Chula Vista/Otay Mesa/etc is getting close to half the district.

What is the partisan lean for CA-10 and where would Garamendi run and what would the partisan lean of his seat be?