2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[I’m not Stu]

A few preferences of mine:
1. San Diego and Imperial really don't pair. Imperial should go with Palm Springs/Indio, even if it means a SD-Riverside Split.
2. Orange County has some natural communities of interest that you are chopping up weirdly. Oryx made a good map of them here:
[img]
If you do a LA/OC split, it should be extending an Asian Belt district towards Cerritos, which is a sensible COI.
3. CA-27 should me a majority Asian VRA district. Drop Pasadena and Eagle Rock and shift it east a little bit,
4. The San Fernando Valley makes 2 CDs plus the Burbank/North Hollywood one, so you should really try to keep the 28th south of Mulholland. If this forces a new LA/Ventura split, the best place to do it is along the 101 corridor or from Santa Clarita-Ventura.
5. The Eastern Sierras should be paired with the Antelope and Victor Valleys. Northing should cross from the Central Valley.
6. The North Coast should be intact and separate from the Redding area. Santa Rosa-Crescent City should be one thing.
7. Ideally, Contra Costa/Solano splits should be avoided, and the western parts of Alameda and Contra costa should be looked at as a unit which is separate from the Walnut Creek/Livermore area, even if it forces more county splits.

I considered your preferences here and looked at how they could be adopted, if it was so possible with my criteria.
1 was ruled out due to me placing considerable importance on reducing county splits.
2 was heavily thought through and to a certain extent adopted. I thank you for posting that map again, it was of much value to me. I have a plurality Asian CD in OC now. And the Long Beach CD also became a Hispanic opportunity CD as well, due to it having to move north.
3 was unworkable without destroying compactness, but I did boost the Asian % a few points.
4 was kind of confusing, I would like it if you got in more detail in regards to it.
5 was...well, unworkable. But I did redo the Central Valley CDs to make it look better.
6 was...unworkable. Plus I like the CoI of a Marin+Sonoma CD. I generally prefer a dedicated "Jefferson" CD over the current arrangement anyway.
7 is good advice but it also is hard to bring about on my map. It was only with great reluctance that I combined parts of Solano and parts of Contra Costa. When you have a dedicated Marin+Sonoma CD and then Butte+most of everything north of it CD, it means that you either have a funky district that weirdly splits the northern Sacremento burbs or you have a weird abomination of a CD that has most of Sonoma but not a lot of Yolo. Unless - you have a river boundary for a Napa CD that runs for many miles like I have and then give it as much of Sonoma as you can. It didn't help matters Sacremento itself was off limits as it was just perfect for 2 CDs.
P.S. the reason I have yet to post a picture is because I'm essentially in a finalization process powered on by the input of other people (you becoming among them).

What is the plurality Asian district?

[I’m not Stu]

A few preferences of mine:
1. San Diego and Imperial really don't pair. Imperial should go with Palm Springs/Indio, even if it means a SD-Riverside Split.
2. Orange County has some natural communities of interest that you are chopping up weirdly. Oryx made a good map of them here:
[img]
If you do a LA/OC split, it should be extending an Asian Belt district towards Cerritos, which is a sensible COI.
3. CA-27 should me a majority Asian VRA district. Drop Pasadena and Eagle Rock and shift it east a little bit,
4. The San Fernando Valley makes 2 CDs plus the Burbank/North Hollywood one, so you should really try to keep the 28th south of Mulholland. If this forces a new LA/Ventura split, the best place to do it is along the 101 corridor or from Santa Clarita-Ventura.
5. The Eastern Sierras should be paired with the Antelope and Victor Valleys. Northing should cross from the Central Valley.
6. The North Coast should be intact and separate from the Redding area. Santa Rosa-Crescent City should be one thing.
7. Ideally, Contra Costa/Solano splits should be avoided, and the western parts of Alameda and Contra costa should be looked at as a unit which is separate from the Walnut Creek/Livermore area, even if it forces more county splits.

I considered your preferences here and looked at how they could be adopted, if it was so possible with my criteria.
1 was ruled out due to me placing considerable importance on reducing county splits.
2 was heavily thought through and to a certain extent adopted. I thank you for posting that map again, it was of much value to me. I have a plurality Asian CD in OC now. And the Long Beach CD also became a Hispanic opportunity CD as well, due to it having to move north.
3 was unworkable without destroying compactness, but I did boost the Asian % a few points.
4 was kind of confusing, I would like it if you got in more detail in regards to it.
5 was...well, unworkable. But I did redo the Central Valley CDs to make it look better.
6 was...unworkable. Plus I like the CoI of a Marin+Sonoma CD. I generally prefer a dedicated "Jefferson" CD over the current arrangement anyway.
7 is good advice but it also is hard to bring about on my map. It was only with great reluctance that I combined parts of Solano and parts of Contra Costa. When you have a dedicated Marin+Sonoma CD and then Butte+most of everything north of it CD, it means that you either have a funky district that weirdly splits the northern Sacremento burbs or you have a weird abomination of a CD that has most of Sonoma but not a lot of Yolo. Unless - you have a river boundary for a Napa CD that runs for many miles like I have and then give it as much of Sonoma as you can. It didn't help matters Sacremento itself was off limits as it was just perfect for 2 CDs.
P.S. the reason I have yet to post a picture is because I'm essentially in a finalization process powered on by the input of other people (you becoming among them).

What is the plurality Asian district?

CA-47, in SW OC.

What does the Long Beach district cover?

[I’m not Stu]

A few preferences of mine:
1. San Diego and Imperial really don't pair. Imperial should go with Palm Springs/Indio, even if it means a SD-Riverside Split.
2. Orange County has some natural communities of interest that you are chopping up weirdly. Oryx made a good map of them here:
[img]
If you do a LA/OC split, it should be extending an Asian Belt district towards Cerritos, which is a sensible COI.
3. CA-27 should me a majority Asian VRA district. Drop Pasadena and Eagle Rock and shift it east a little bit,
4. The San Fernando Valley makes 2 CDs plus the Burbank/North Hollywood one, so you should really try to keep the 28th south of Mulholland. If this forces a new LA/Ventura split, the best place to do it is along the 101 corridor or from Santa Clarita-Ventura.
5. The Eastern Sierras should be paired with the Antelope and Victor Valleys. Northing should cross from the Central Valley.
6. The North Coast should be intact and separate from the Redding area. Santa Rosa-Crescent City should be one thing.
7. Ideally, Contra Costa/Solano splits should be avoided, and the western parts of Alameda and Contra costa should be looked at as a unit which is separate from the Walnut Creek/Livermore area, even if it forces more county splits.

I considered your preferences here and looked at how they could be adopted, if it was so possible with my criteria.
1 was ruled out due to me placing considerable importance on reducing county splits.
2 was heavily thought through and to a certain extent adopted. I thank you for posting that map again, it was of much value to me. I have a plurality Asian CD in OC now. And the Long Beach CD also became a Hispanic opportunity CD as well, due to it having to move north.
3 was unworkable without destroying compactness, but I did boost the Asian % a few points.
4 was kind of confusing, I would like it if you got in more detail in regards to it.
5 was...well, unworkable. But I did redo the Central Valley CDs to make it look better.
6 was...unworkable. Plus I like the CoI of a Marin+Sonoma CD. I generally prefer a dedicated "Jefferson" CD over the current arrangement anyway.
7 is good advice but it also is hard to bring about on my map. It was only with great reluctance that I combined parts of Solano and parts of Contra Costa. When you have a dedicated Marin+Sonoma CD and then Butte+most of everything north of it CD, it means that you either have a funky district that weirdly splits the northern Sacremento burbs or you have a weird abomination of a CD that has most of Sonoma but not a lot of Yolo. Unless - you have a river boundary for a Napa CD that runs for many miles like I have and then give it as much of Sonoma as you can. It didn't help matters Sacremento itself was off limits as it was just perfect for 2 CDs.
P.S. the reason I have yet to post a picture is because I'm essentially in a finalization process powered on by the input of other people (you becoming among them).

What is the plurality Asian district?

CA-47, in SW OC.

What does the Long Beach district cover?

(essentially) All of Long Beach, Signal Hall, Norwalk, and Bellflower, as well as parts of Lakewood, Paramount, and Downey.
Under 2018 population figures Hispanics are more than double any other group and they are almost a majority of the population. This makes it a viable Latino opportunity constituency.

What cities are in CA-47 (Asian Belt)?

[I’m not Stu]

A few preferences of mine:
1. San Diego and Imperial really don't pair. Imperial should go with Palm Springs/Indio, even if it means a SD-Riverside Split.
2. Orange County has some natural communities of interest that you are chopping up weirdly. Oryx made a good map of them here:
[img]
If you do a LA/OC split, it should be extending an Asian Belt district towards Cerritos, which is a sensible COI.
3. CA-27 should me a majority Asian VRA district. Drop Pasadena and Eagle Rock and shift it east a little bit,
4. The San Fernando Valley makes 2 CDs plus the Burbank/North Hollywood one, so you should really try to keep the 28th south of Mulholland. If this forces a new LA/Ventura split, the best place to do it is along the 101 corridor or from Santa Clarita-Ventura.
5. The Eastern Sierras should be paired with the Antelope and Victor Valleys. Northing should cross from the Central Valley.
6. The North Coast should be intact and separate from the Redding area. Santa Rosa-Crescent City should be one thing.
7. Ideally, Contra Costa/Solano splits should be avoided, and the western parts of Alameda and Contra costa should be looked at as a unit which is separate from the Walnut Creek/Livermore area, even if it forces more county splits.

I considered your preferences here and looked at how they could be adopted, if it was so possible with my criteria.
1 was ruled out due to me placing considerable importance on reducing county splits.
2 was heavily thought through and to a certain extent adopted. I thank you for posting that map again, it was of much value to me. I have a plurality Asian CD in OC now. And the Long Beach CD also became a Hispanic opportunity CD as well, due to it having to move north.
3 was unworkable without destroying compactness, but I did boost the Asian % a few points.
4 was kind of confusing, I would like it if you got in more detail in regards to it.
5 was...well, unworkable. But I did redo the Central Valley CDs to make it look better.
6 was...unworkable. Plus I like the CoI of a Marin+Sonoma CD. I generally prefer a dedicated "Jefferson" CD over the current arrangement anyway.
7 is good advice but it also is hard to bring about on my map. It was only with great reluctance that I combined parts of Solano and parts of Contra Costa. When you have a dedicated Marin+Sonoma CD and then Butte+most of everything north of it CD, it means that you either have a funky district that weirdly splits the northern Sacremento burbs or you have a weird abomination of a CD that has most of Sonoma but not a lot of Yolo. Unless - you have a river boundary for a Napa CD that runs for many miles like I have and then give it as much of Sonoma as you can. It didn't help matters Sacremento itself was off limits as it was just perfect for 2 CDs.
P.S. the reason I have yet to post a picture is because I'm essentially in a finalization process powered on by the input of other people (you becoming among them).

What is the plurality Asian district?

CA-47, in SW OC.

What does the Long Beach district cover?

(essentially) All of Long Beach, Signal Hall, Norwalk, and Bellflower, as well as parts of Lakewood, Paramount, and Downey.
Under 2018 population figures Hispanics are more than double any other group and they are almost a majority of the population. This makes it a viable Latino opportunity constituency.

What cities are in CA-47 (Asian Belt)?

all of Cerritos and Artesia and part of Lakewood in Los Angeles County; all of Los Alamitos, Rossmoor, Seal Beach, Westminster, Fountain Valley, Stanton, La Palma in Orange County, and small slices of Santa Ana and Anaheim as well as most of Garden Grove and about a third of Buena Park.

Where’s majority white West Garden Grove?

[I’m not Stu]

Here is West Garden Grove. Mayor Steve Jones (R) is from there. Last census says it’s 82% white.

[I’m not Stu]

Here is West Garden Grove. Mayor Steve Jones (R) is from there. Last census says it’s 82% white.

Oooohhh.
I see the confusion.
Yeah West Garden Grove is in the district.

It’s isolated from the rest of the city. It has more in common with Seal Beach/Cypress/Huntington Beach. The Asian Belt has two malls of of Interstate 405.

[I’m not Stu]

What might a map with 53 districts completely redrawn from scratch look like, with no LA/OC splits?

[I’m not Stu]

What might a map with 53 districts completely redrawn from scratch look like, with no LA/OC splits?

Do you live in Garden Grove?

Yes. I get moved into new districts every time. CA-40 (Ed Royce), CA-47 (Alan Lowenthal), will the next round be an OC-cemtered district again? I never stay in one district.

[I’m not Stu]

On a 53 district map, what would an OC map with no LA/OC splits look like?

[I’m not Stu]

Any thoughts?

Is Cisneros in 37 and Torres in 38? Is Lowenthal's successor in 46?

[I’m not Stu]

Any thoughts?

Is Cisneros in 37 and Torres in 38? Is Lowenthal's successor in 46?

Yes to all of the above.

Are Waters and Bass merged into 32?

[I’m not Stu]

Any thoughts?

Is Cisneros in 37 and Torres in 38? Is Lowenthal's successor in 46?

Yes to all of the above.

Are Waters and Bass merged into 32?

Yeah, but Bass probably runs in 28.

What about Schiff and Chu? Does Chu retire?

[I’m not Stu]

Any thoughts?

Is Cisneros in 37 and Torres in 38? Is Lowenthal's successor in 46?

Yes to all of the above.

Are Waters and Bass merged into 32?

Yeah, but Bass probably runs in 28.

What about Schiff and Chu? Does Chu retire?

Schiff is 29 and Chu is 30

Where does Sherman go?

[I’m not Stu]

Any thoughts?

Is Cisneros in 37 and Torres in 38? Is Lowenthal's successor in 46?

Yes to all of the above.

Are Waters and Bass merged into 32?

Yeah, but Bass probably runs in 28.

What about Schiff and Chu? Does Chu retire?

Schiff is 29 and Chu is 30

Where does Sherman go?

The only district that isn't there for an incumbent is Napolitano's.

Napolitano retires. Where do Cardenas and Sherman go? Does Sherman take Malibu?

[I’m not Stu]

Does Ruiz take in Imperial?

[I’m not Stu]

Is Lowenthal the only one other than Napolitano who doesn't have a district?

[I’m not Stu]

Is Lowenthal the only one other than Napolitano who doesn't have a district?

Basically, although I only cut one district. Lowenthal's was just really heavily shifted into OC. Some others don't resemble current districts at all though, particularly in the Central Valley.

Would Lowenthal likely retire? He will be 82, and his district loses Long Beach to Barragan.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Lowenthal the only one other than Napolitano who doesn't have a district?

Basically, although I only cut one district. Lowenthal's was just really heavily shifted into OC. Some others don't resemble current districts at all though, particularly in the Central Valley.

Would Lowenthal likely retire? He will be 82, and his district loses Long Beach to Barragan.

Definitely. I expect Napolitano and Lowenthal to retire, with a new OC based rep taking over the new Asian Belt district and the bulk of Napolitano's district becoming part of Cisneros'.

What's the PVI of the district Lowenthal probably vacates?

[I’m not Stu]

Is Lowenthal the only one other than Napolitano who doesn't have a district?

Basically, although I only cut one district. Lowenthal's was just really heavily shifted into OC. Some others don't resemble current districts at all though, particularly in the Central Valley.

Would Lowenthal likely retire? He will be 82, and his district loses Long Beach to Barragan.

Definitely. I expect Napolitano and Lowenthal to retire, with a new OC based rep taking over the new Asian Belt district and the bulk of Napolitano's district becoming part of Cisneros'.

What's the PVI of the district Lowenthal probably vacates?

The OC Asian belt one?
Clinton+21.

It's a safe Dem seat.

I meant Cook PVI. Is it more or less Democratic than the current CA-47? Would it likely elect an Asian candidate?

[I’m not Stu]

Cook PVI is pretty useless. If it's Clinton +21 it doesn't matter what the Romney vote was. If it's Clinton +5, it also probably doesn't matter if it was Romney +5.

Is current CA-47 Clinton +32?

[I’m not Stu]

Would an Asian Democrat likely be Lowenthal's successor under this map?

[I’m not Stu]

Does this mean an OC district electing an Asian candidate (Garden Grove Democratic councilor) might very well happen?

[I’m not Stu]

CA-45 has many malls. Is that important to a COI?

[I’m not Stu]

What might happen in the Inland Empire? I don't know very much about that area.

[I’m not Stu]

What would a map with no LA/OC splits look like (on a 52 district map and a 53 district map)? I can't use DRA.