2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

[Brittain33]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

Steele and Kim, no?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

Steele and Kim, no?

Affluent, historically Republican suburbs in OC are in Steel, Porter, and Levin's districts. North/West OC are quite working class. In the specific case of Kim, her victory was driven by middle class and working class Asian voters splitting their ballots Biden/Kim. Steel perhaps fits Sol's case better, but that went from a ultra-close Rouda win to an ultra-close Rouda loss. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[wbrocks67]

Valadao getting a slightly R district and Nunes getting a tossup seat is probably a fine deal for Dems. The key is being able to win the House in those neutral D+2 years if an open seat pops up and both would accomplish that goal. Harder looks like he could get a minimal change seat and that is a potential problem with the way rural Hispanics have trended. SoCal is where Dems should want a good map, if Kim gets stuck in a Biden +17 seat she is finished.

Yeah, it should be major priority to make sure Steele, Rohrabacher, Kim, etc get booted if possible.

[Gass3268]

Valadao getting a slightly R district and Nunes getting a tossup seat is probably a fine deal for Dems. The key is being able to win the House in those neutral D+2 years if an open seat pops up and both would accomplish that goal. Harder looks like he could get a minimal change seat and that is a potential problem with the way rural Hispanics have trended. SoCal is where Dems should want a good map, if Kim gets stuck in a Biden +17 seat she is finished.

Yeah, it should be major priority to make sure Steele, Rohrabacher, Kim, etc get booted if possible.

Might happen to Kim, but at the expense of Porter.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1448719189951205391?s=20

[Devils30]

the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Huh?

Steele and Kim, no?

Affluent, historically Republican suburbs in OC are in Steel, Porter, and Levin's districts. North/West OC are quite working class. In the specific case of Kim, her victory was driven by middle class and working class Asian voters splitting their ballots Biden/Kim. Steel perhaps fits Sol's case better, but that went from a ultra-close Rouda win to an ultra-close Rouda loss. I wouldn't read too much into it.

We need to have the commission put Long Beach in 48.

[BoiseBoy]

Valadao getting a slightly R district and Nunes getting a tossup seat is probably a fine deal for Dems. The key is being able to win the House in those neutral D+2 years if an open seat pops up and both would accomplish that goal. Harder looks like he could get a minimal change seat and that is a potential problem with the way rural Hispanics have trended. SoCal is where Dems should want a good map, if Kim gets stuck in a Biden +17 seat she is finished.

Yeah, it should be major priority to make sure Steele, Rohrabacher, Kim, etc get booted if possible.

Might happen to Kim, but at the expense of Porter.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1448719189951205391?s=20

Booting Kim at the expense of possibly losing Katie Porter would be tragic.

[I’m not Stu]

Steel might not have anything south of Huntington Beach. That makes it bluer.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Steel might not have anything south of Huntington Beach. That makes it bluer.

I feel like when people say this they forget something gotta take in those red parts of OC along the cost CA-48 sheds

[I’m not Stu]

This looks similar to one of the proposed versions of CA-48.

[It’s so Joever]

Do any of the proposals hurt Steele, this seems more like wishful thinking.

[I’m not Stu]

Do any of the proposals hurt Steele, this seems more like wishful thinking.

My version is similar to a proposed version, which is an Asian and white working class district. It only goes as far south as Huntington Beach.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol I'm watching the commissioners application videos.

"Independent" Antonio Le Mons literaaly said: "But what I love about CA besides the weather is the diversity and progressive politics"

Remember, in order for a map to pass a majority of Republicans must agree though, and while you def have some Rs that are basically Ds (Jane Andersen) some actually seem like pretty genuine Rs.

[lfromnj]

Lol I'm watching the commissioners application videos.

"Independent" Antonio Le Mons literaaly said: "But what I love about CA besides the weather is the diversity and progressive politics"

Remember, in order for a map to pass a majority of Republicans must agree though, and while you def have some Rs that are basically Ds (Jane Andersen) some actually seem like pretty genuine Rs.

Reminder the divider line between the 5-3 and 4-1-3 on Colorado was between those who had equity/diversity in their statements against those who didn't. It probably starts out average right now but as soon LULAC etc will pull through for Democrats by saying that Latinos in CA01 need to be put with Sonamo county to give them their candidate of choice.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Ami Bera in trouble?

https://twitter.com/spamalaanderzon/status/1448420877486333953

Calling Folsom "conservative" is misleading; it was Biden+7. Sure it's historically Republican but that's neither here nor there. Roseville and Rocklin are also fast trending D, with Roseville only Trump+1 and Rocklin Trump+5. This is a very trends-are-real type of district that would have been unwinnable for the Democrats 10 years ago and will be unwinnable for the Republicans 10 years from now; Bera just has to hold on for a cycle.

A few more things to note about Folsom. For one thing, it’s already in Bera’s district. And second, it’s rapidly expanding south of Highway 50. There’s a lot of Bay Area transplants as well as Asian-Americans thanks to Intel and its generally good reputation. It’s one of those high-education suburbs that Dems have done well in since Trump was elected and even before then tbh.

In 2014, Brown narrowly beat Kashkari in Folsom; not sure about 2018 or the recall, but Folsom has been getting bluer over the last decade.

Bera should definitely be nervous, but I’ll wait until the final map comes out to make any real prognosis.

All this being said, the map that puts Humboldt and Shasta Counties together is laughably stupid.

[I’m not Stu]

If CA-39 becomes bluer at the expense of CA-45 becoming redder, who runs in CA-45?

[Crumpets]

FWIW, the one person I know from the Folsom area (actually El Dorado Hills, iirc) is a Gabbard curious Yang Ganger Democrat. Potential Forward Party pickup? 🤔

[I’m not Stu]

I like the proposed NOCCoast district similar to what I drew. It makes Steel's district bluer.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I get they're 'draft maps' and all, but some of those IE districts look absolutely weird from a "community of interest" standpoint.

I'd never think to lump Riverside in with San Jacinto/Hemet. Or a Corona/Murrieta district that also gobbles up South OC (Let alone it being even more gerrymandered than the current 42nd district).

Likewise, there's a State Senate proposal that lumps Riverside in with Irvine & Mission Viejo. What the hell?

[Tekken_Guy]

If CA-39 becomes bluer at the expense of CA-45 becoming redder, who runs in CA-45?

Maybe Young Kim.

[I’m not Stu]

If CA-39 becomes bluer at the expense of CA-45 becoming redder, who runs in CA-45?

Maybe Young Kim.

That is carpetbagging. Maybe Donald Wagner or Harry Sidhu runs in a redder CA-45?

[Gass3268]

California's first drafts were released:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1453071799110021123?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

California's first drafts were released:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1453071799110021123?s=20

Northern CA looks Dem favorable. Interesting that the Latino CD in San Diego is expanding north.

[Gass3268]

California's first drafts were released:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1453071799110021123?s=20

Northern CA looks Dem favorable. Interesting that the Latino CD in San Diego is expanding north.

Yeah, with Butte and Yolo being in CA-01, it essentially becomes a Lean R seat.

[I’m not Stu]

Lowenthal is saved? It looks like his district will no longer include Garden Grove and Westminster, but will include more of Lakewood instead. I thought most of Long Beach would go to Barragan. It appears I will be moved from Lowenthal’s district to Steel’s.