2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Biden his time]

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.

I will keep this in mind for next time, thank you!

-OC and LA look messy but you need to post a zoom in with background map turned on. Santa Clarita-Santa Barbara is just kinda weird.
-VRA stats???

I linked in the original post here:

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.

I tried very hard for a Trump 2020 Orange County district but couldn't (when keeping in mind compactness)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

FYI Abdullah, this is basically the only functional way to do Far Northern California: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bc21ff91-095c-4160-a357-faf53da60d8b

[Nyvin]

FYI Abdullah, this is basically the only functional way to do Far Northern California: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bc21ff91-095c-4160-a357-faf53da60d8b

Thanks, I was rolling my eyes at the maps putting Mendocino and Humboldt in with the northeast district.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seen basically no discussion about California since the new census release.  This really seems like a state where Democrats could pick up a few seats.  I'm assuming Dem areas grew faster than GOP areas and the GOP already has a lot of marginal seats to defend.

[Brittain33]

Seen basically no discussion about California since the new census release.  This really seems like a state where Democrats could pick up a few seats.  I'm assuming Dem areas grew faster than GOP areas and the GOP already has a lot of marginal seats to defend.

There are a lot of Dem seats in L.A. County which are short of people and adjacent to other underpopulated Dem districts.

It's hard to talk about California because no one knows what the commission will do. I remember 10 years ago how unpredictable it all felt especially because the geography permits so many combinations.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seen basically no discussion about California since the new census release.  This really seems like a state where Democrats could pick up a few seats.  I'm assuming Dem areas grew faster than GOP areas and the GOP already has a lot of marginal seats to defend.

There are a lot of Dem seats in L.A. County which are short of people and adjacent to other underpopulated Dem districts.

It's hard to talk about California because no one knows what the commission will do. I remember 10 years ago how unpredictable it all felt especially because the geography permits so many combinations.

I'd hope that the commission is somewhat lean Democratic at least.  You'd assume that in a state as Dem and liberal as California that even if you just get random people on a commission they'd have a Dem bias.

[S019]

Seen basically no discussion about California since the new census release.  This really seems like a state where Democrats could pick up a few seats.  I'm assuming Dem areas grew faster than GOP areas and the GOP already has a lot of marginal seats to defend.

There are a lot of Dem seats in L.A. County which are short of people and adjacent to other underpopulated Dem districts.

It's hard to talk about California because no one knows what the commission will do. I remember 10 years ago how unpredictable it all felt especially because the geography permits so many combinations.

I'd hope that the commission is somewhat lean Democratic at least.  You'd assume that in a state as Dem and liberal as California that even if you just get random people on a commission they'd have a Dem bias.

The CW indicates that it is, and the consulting firm that they hired, is at well. You'd probably get some COI that favors Democrats. In the only commission to have filed draft maps so far, Colorado, the maps seemed to be heavily influenced by public input. Now there is no guarantee that California follows public input as much, or even will at all, but if they do, there is some good news for Democrats, first a request to keep Ventura County together, which would eliminate the arm into Ventura County of District 25, which almost certainly saved Mike Garcia last fall. Another interesting one was a request to pair the Republican cities of Temecula and Murrieta with the rest of Riverside, currently they are paired with San Diego County and may have made the difference in keeping District 50 red last fall. While these would both be good news for Democrats if they occurred, and I'm not saying they will, it's not all sun and shine for Democrats. For one, the cut seat will likely come from LA county, which has a grand total of 1(!) Republican, the aforementioned Garcia, who is incredibly unlikely to be cut, meaning that in all likelihood Democrats will need to lose a seat, which seat they cut could obviously influence the map. Also the Democrats currently hold some seats, notably District 10, that could be very vulnerable in 2022, even if the lines don't change much. The Republicans also hold their fair share of these, notably the aforementioned District 25, District 21, and District 39, it's very possible some of these, especially District 39 could get more Republican simply due to the sheer amount of possibilities in LA county (District 39 spans Orange, LA, and Riverside county, and there's a chance it could get pushed further south or west towards more redder territory), it could also get more Democratic by picking up blue leaning cities in LA county. We don't know much, and they will probably make some decisions to favor Democrats, but they may also be forced to make some decisions favoring Republicans simply due to sheer geography. The safest bet is to probably bet on no party emerging with a clear advantage.

[Tekken_Guy]

Opinions?

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.
-OC and LA look messy but you need to post a zoom in with background map turned on. Santa Clarita-Santa Barbara is just kinda weird.
-VRA stats???

That CD-1 wouldn't even have an incumbent, as LaMalfa would be in the 2nd. Most likely one of the Dahles would run here.

[BoiseBoy]

Don’t know if this has been shared, but there are a few ways we can provide feedback to the commission or share our CA maps with them. I plan to send mine when I finish it.

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1427313954225725440?s=20

[Tintrlvr]

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.

I will keep this in mind for next time, thank you!

I'm just going to put in a counter-statement that your Inyo-Mono-mountains district is totally fine. There are roads there; not great roads, but there are no great roads in and out of Inyo and Mono. And Inyo and Mono don't really connect well with anywhere else in CA. Blairite and others will push for the San Bernardino alignment, and that isn't unacceptable either, but there's nothing more in common there, and the area between populated areas in Inyo and San Bernardino Counties is even wider than with points west of Mono (and you have to pass through Kern). Connecting through Yosemite is fine, and a mountains-straddling district is acceptable if everything in it is basically rural and remote mountains and foothills.

This is in contrast to the North Coast-Redding pairing, which is tougher because Redding and the North Coast are so culturally different, and also consist more of sizeable settlements and less of tiny rural towns.

[Хahar 🤔]

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.

I will keep this in mind for next time, thank you!

I'm just going to put in a counter-statement that your Inyo-Mono-mountains district is totally fine. There are roads there; not great roads, but there are no great roads in and out of Inyo and Mono. And Inyo and Mono don't really connect well with anywhere else in CA. Blairite and others will push for the San Bernardino alignment, and that isn't unacceptable either, but there's nothing more in common there, and the area between populated areas in Inyo and San Bernardino Counties is even wider than with points west of Mono (and you have to pass through Kern). Connecting through Yosemite is fine, and a mountains-straddling district is acceptable if everything in it is basically rural and remote mountains and foothills.

This is in contrast to the North Coast-Redding pairing, which is tougher because Redding and the North Coast are so culturally different, and also consist more of sizeable settlements and less of tiny rural towns.

"There are roads there" is true in a literal sense, I suppose, but there are no crossings of the Sierra Nevada that are open in winter between the Carson Pass in Alpine County and the Walker Pass in Kern County. Note that this means that connecting through Yosemite is not fine; the Tioga Pass, which connects the main portion of the park to the eastern entrance, is not open during the winter. Maybe you can make that connection in a sled, but you can't in a car.

By contrast, US 395, the main road through Inyo and Mono, is well-traveled all year and connects to points southward without having to go over mountains. This is why, for example, AAA assigns those two counties to its Southern California branch rather than its Northern California branch, despite their being geographically northern. This is also why Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in Mono County serves a clientele almost exclusively from Southern California, where it does almost all of its marketing; if you're coming from Northern California in the winter, you can't get there unless you fly. Mammoth Lakes has a Vons (Southern California) rather than a Safeway (Northern California). All the connections in the part of California east of the Sierra Nevada are to the south, and it's lazy to assert that the mere presence of roads that are sometimes open makes it acceptable to cross the mountains.

[Tintrlvr]

-The North Coast-Sacramento Valley district is totally unacceptable.
-Inyo-Mono-Tahoe-Gold Country is not acceptable. Look at mountains and road connectivity, not just compactness.

I will keep this in mind for next time, thank you!

I'm just going to put in a counter-statement that your Inyo-Mono-mountains district is totally fine. There are roads there; not great roads, but there are no great roads in and out of Inyo and Mono. And Inyo and Mono don't really connect well with anywhere else in CA. Blairite and others will push for the San Bernardino alignment, and that isn't unacceptable either, but there's nothing more in common there, and the area between populated areas in Inyo and San Bernardino Counties is even wider than with points west of Mono (and you have to pass through Kern). Connecting through Yosemite is fine, and a mountains-straddling district is acceptable if everything in it is basically rural and remote mountains and foothills.

This is in contrast to the North Coast-Redding pairing, which is tougher because Redding and the North Coast are so culturally different, and also consist more of sizeable settlements and less of tiny rural towns.

"There are roads there" is true in a literal sense, I suppose, but there are no crossings of the Sierra Nevada that are open in winter between the Carson Pass in Alpine County and the Walker Pass in Kern County. Note that this means that connecting through Yosemite is not fine; the Tioga Pass, which connects the main portion of the park to the eastern entrance, is not open during the winter. Maybe you can make that connection in a sled, but you can't in a car.

By contrast, US 395, the main road through Inyo and Mono, is well-traveled all year and connects to points southward without having to go over mountains. This is why, for example, AAA assigns those two counties to its Southern California branch rather than its Northern California branch, despite their being geographically northern. This is also why Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in Mono County serves a clientele almost exclusively from Southern California, where it does almost all of its marketing; if you're coming from Northern California in the winter, you can't get there unless you fly. Mammoth Lakes has a Vons (Southern California) rather than a Safeway (Northern California). All the connections in the part of California east of the Sierra Nevada are to the south, and it's lazy to assert that the mere presence of roads that are sometimes open makes it acceptable to cross the mountains.

But the map he drew covers the Carson Pass, so you are making no argument whatsoever. There is as much of a connection at the northern end as at the southern end. It's true that you shouldn't directly connect Mammoth Lakes to Fresno without some other counties in the district (for example, for the State Assembly). But no one is proposing that. Instead, the choice is whether to connect the Inyo-Mono complex across the northern crossing or the southern crossing. And both are equally valid, and nothing you've said indicates otherwise.

The hyperbole on where to put Inyo and Mono is completely unwarranted. They don't fit well geographically or culturally with anywhere that isn't Nevada, so you just have to choose a road connection and put them somewhere.

[Хahar 🤔]

"There are roads there" is true in a literal sense, I suppose, but there are no crossings of the Sierra Nevada that are open in winter between the Carson Pass in Alpine County and the Walker Pass in Kern County. Note that this means that connecting through Yosemite is not fine; the Tioga Pass, which connects the main portion of the park to the eastern entrance, is not open during the winter. Maybe you can make that connection in a sled, but you can't in a car.

By contrast, US 395, the main road through Inyo and Mono, is well-traveled all year and connects to points southward without having to go over mountains. This is why, for example, AAA assigns those two counties to its Southern California branch rather than its Northern California branch, despite their being geographically northern. This is also why Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in Mono County serves a clientele almost exclusively from Southern California, where it does almost all of its marketing; if you're coming from Northern California in the winter, you can't get there unless you fly. Mammoth Lakes has a Vons (Southern California) rather than a Safeway (Northern California). All the connections in the part of California east of the Sierra Nevada are to the south, and it's lazy to assert that the mere presence of roads that are sometimes open makes it acceptable to cross the mountains.

But the map he drew covers the Carson Pass, so you are making no argument whatsoever. There is as much of a connection at the northern end as at the southern end. It's true that you shouldn't directly connect Mammoth Lakes to Fresno without some other counties in the district (for example, for the State Assembly). But no one is proposing that. Instead, the choice is whether to connect the Inyo-Mono complex across the northern crossing or the southern crossing. And both are equally valid, and nothing you've said indicates otherwise.

The hyperbole on where to put Inyo and Mono is completely unwarranted. They don't fit well geographically or culturally with anywhere that isn't Nevada, so you just have to choose a road connection and put them somewhere.

No, it actually doesn't mean that those two options are equally valid. Highway 88, which crosses the Carson Pass, is a winding mountain road with minimal human settlement around it aside from one ski resort. That lack of human settlement might have to do with its crossing an 8500-foot pass, which is not something that people tend to do on a regular basis. By contrast, Highway 395 is the main thoroughfare for the movement of goods and people east of the Sierras, as you would notice from the volume of truck traffic if you were to travel that route. The idea that those two connections are the same is obviously silly.

Now, you could claim that road connectivity doesn't matter at all in California. Some evidence here would be that the state senate district that contains Mono and Inyo does not contain any part of either Alpine or Kern, meaning that there are no road connections at all between that part of the district and the Central Valley portion. That's an argument that I wouldn't be able to refute, because it's self-evidently correct, but it's not the argument you're making.

[Tintrlvr]

"There are roads there" is true in a literal sense, I suppose, but there are no crossings of the Sierra Nevada that are open in winter between the Carson Pass in Alpine County and the Walker Pass in Kern County. Note that this means that connecting through Yosemite is not fine; the Tioga Pass, which connects the main portion of the park to the eastern entrance, is not open during the winter. Maybe you can make that connection in a sled, but you can't in a car.

By contrast, US 395, the main road through Inyo and Mono, is well-traveled all year and connects to points southward without having to go over mountains. This is why, for example, AAA assigns those two counties to its Southern California branch rather than its Northern California branch, despite their being geographically northern. This is also why Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in Mono County serves a clientele almost exclusively from Southern California, where it does almost all of its marketing; if you're coming from Northern California in the winter, you can't get there unless you fly. Mammoth Lakes has a Vons (Southern California) rather than a Safeway (Northern California). All the connections in the part of California east of the Sierra Nevada are to the south, and it's lazy to assert that the mere presence of roads that are sometimes open makes it acceptable to cross the mountains.

But the map he drew covers the Carson Pass, so you are making no argument whatsoever. There is as much of a connection at the northern end as at the southern end. It's true that you shouldn't directly connect Mammoth Lakes to Fresno without some other counties in the district (for example, for the State Assembly). But no one is proposing that. Instead, the choice is whether to connect the Inyo-Mono complex across the northern crossing or the southern crossing. And both are equally valid, and nothing you've said indicates otherwise.

The hyperbole on where to put Inyo and Mono is completely unwarranted. They don't fit well geographically or culturally with anywhere that isn't Nevada, so you just have to choose a road connection and put them somewhere.

No, it actually doesn't mean that those two options are equally valid. Highway 88, which crosses the Carson Pass, is a winding mountain road with minimal human settlement around it aside from one ski resort. That lack of human settlement might have to do with its crossing an 8500-foot pass, which is not something that people tend to do on a regular basis. By contrast, Highway 395 is the main thoroughfare for the movement of goods and people east of the Sierras, as you would notice from the volume of truck traffic if you were to travel that route. The idea that those two connections are the same is obviously silly.

Now, you could claim that road connectivity doesn't matter at all in California. Some evidence here would be that the state senate district that contains Mono and Inyo does not contain any part of either Alpine or Kern, meaning that there are no road connections at all between that part of the district and the Central Valley portion. That's an argument that I wouldn't be able to refute, because it's self-evidently correct, but it's not the argument you're making.

Well, you refute your own point again because the map goes up to US-50, which is just as much of a major highway as US-395. Also, US-395 doesn't connect to San Bernardino directly, and most maps that connect Inyo to San Bernardino don't cut into Kern, so if you're making a road connectivity argument (note that you started that argument by talking about mountain passes, not me), there is more connectivity across Alpine to El Dorado than Inyo to San Bernardino. Finally, I'm not sure how you can argue with a straight face that the open desert in places like, I don't know, right here or around here, are more covered by "human settlement" than mountain crossings.

A great vista of human settlement, for reference.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

"There are roads there" is true in a literal sense, I suppose, but there are no crossings of the Sierra Nevada that are open in winter between the Carson Pass in Alpine County and the Walker Pass in Kern County. Note that this means that connecting through Yosemite is not fine; the Tioga Pass, which connects the main portion of the park to the eastern entrance, is not open during the winter. Maybe you can make that connection in a sled, but you can't in a car.

By contrast, US 395, the main road through Inyo and Mono, is well-traveled all year and connects to points southward without having to go over mountains. This is why, for example, AAA assigns those two counties to its Southern California branch rather than its Northern California branch, despite their being geographically northern. This is also why Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in Mono County serves a clientele almost exclusively from Southern California, where it does almost all of its marketing; if you're coming from Northern California in the winter, you can't get there unless you fly. Mammoth Lakes has a Vons (Southern California) rather than a Safeway (Northern California). All the connections in the part of California east of the Sierra Nevada are to the south, and it's lazy to assert that the mere presence of roads that are sometimes open makes it acceptable to cross the mountains.

But the map he drew covers the Carson Pass, so you are making no argument whatsoever. There is as much of a connection at the northern end as at the southern end. It's true that you shouldn't directly connect Mammoth Lakes to Fresno without some other counties in the district (for example, for the State Assembly). But no one is proposing that. Instead, the choice is whether to connect the Inyo-Mono complex across the northern crossing or the southern crossing. And both are equally valid, and nothing you've said indicates otherwise.

The hyperbole on where to put Inyo and Mono is completely unwarranted. They don't fit well geographically or culturally with anywhere that isn't Nevada, so you just have to choose a road connection and put them somewhere.

No, it actually doesn't mean that those two options are equally valid. Highway 88, which crosses the Carson Pass, is a winding mountain road with minimal human settlement around it aside from one ski resort. That lack of human settlement might have to do with its crossing an 8500-foot pass, which is not something that people tend to do on a regular basis. By contrast, Highway 395 is the main thoroughfare for the movement of goods and people east of the Sierras, as you would notice from the volume of truck traffic if you were to travel that route. The idea that those two connections are the same is obviously silly.

Now, you could claim that road connectivity doesn't matter at all in California. Some evidence here would be that the state senate district that contains Mono and Inyo does not contain any part of either Alpine or Kern, meaning that there are no road connections at all between that part of the district and the Central Valley portion. That's an argument that I wouldn't be able to refute, because it's self-evidently correct, but it's not the argument you're making.

Well, you refute your own point again because the map goes up to US-50, which is just as much of a major highway as US-395. Also, US-395 doesn't connect to San Bernardino directly, and most maps that connect Inyo to San Bernardino don't cut into Kern, so if you're making a road connectivity argument (note that you started that argument by talking about mountain passes, not me), there is more connectivity across Alpine to El Dorado than Inyo to San Bernardino. Finally, I'm not sure how you can argue with a straight face that the open desert in places like, I don't know, right here or around here, are more covered by "human settlement" than mountain crossings.

A great vista of human settlement, for reference.

Continuous human settlement might be a bit of an awkward way to characterize anything in that part of the world, but you can absolutely describe areas by the strength of their "corridors."

A human disturbance index of traffic, commerce, gas stations, truck stops, utility corridors etc. overwhelmingly points to 395 as the way to go. And Xahar is just correct that 395 from Mojave and Victorville through Ridgecrest, Lone Pine, Bishop, Mammoth, Lee Vining, etc. is just a contiguous axis of (sparse, desert-tier) commerce from Los Angeles to Reno. His point about Mammoth being Southern California is true--and this extends other facets of life that have bound this region towards LA for a century.  And sure, US-50 is a major highway but the connections between it and the 395 corridor *without going through the State of Nevada* are really, really shaky. The Tahoe area and the Eastern Sierras are really quite cut off.

[Thunder98]

Here is a my first CA map since the 2020 data came out. I didn't like how some of district turn out such as CA-29 and CA-32. On the VRA, I was able to make 48 Minority opportunity districts! 25 Hispanic opportunity seats, 1 Black opportunity seat and 6 Asian opportunity seats. Overall composition is 46 Biden - 6 Trump districts. This time I finally stop putting coastal NorCal and inland NorCal in the district together.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a4f615fb-66f6-45b7-a2cc-57e5975800ff

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Calvert may or may not get 47, plus it looks like a chocobo if you squint.







For the curious:

Partisan leans, 2016-2020 composite


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 50.95% D    43.35% R   

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 52.21% D    47.79% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 51.02% D    48.98% R   

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1b0ed7a3-7ce0-412a-95c3-6472c474d9f4
Made a state senate map.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

[BoiseBoy]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-45. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-49. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

Rouda filed to run in CA-48. Will he carpetbag or drop out? I can’t imagine him running in CA-45 or CA-49.

[BoiseBoy]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-49. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

Rouda filed to run in CA-48. Will he carpetbag or drop out? I can’t imagine him running in CA-45 or CA-49.

It's possible Laguna Beach will be in the new CA-48. My map has it in CA-45, with CA-48 starting at Newport Beach and stretching to the west OC border, going up into Westminster and Garden Grove more. My CA-49 is similar to the current one, but it stretches into Laguna Niguel.



Here is my CA map as a whole. In many ways it is a least-change map. The current map is provided for reference.

[Thunder98]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-49. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

Rouda filed to run in CA-48. Will he carpetbag or drop out? I can’t imagine him running in CA-45 or CA-49.

It's possible Laguna Beach will be in the new CA-48. My map has it in CA-45, with CA-48 starting at Newport Beach and stretching to the west OC border, going up into Westminster and Garden Grove more. My CA-49 is similar to the current one, but it stretches into Laguna Niguel.



Here is my CA map as a whole. In many ways it is a least-change map. The current map is provided for reference.

For some reason, I can't see any of your maps.

[BoiseBoy]

Will Inyo and Mono go with San Bernardino or Kern? Harley Rouda filed to run in CA-48, but I think it loses the South Coast and takes in most of the CA-47 territory in OC. Will Laguna Beach end up in CA-45 or CA-49?

You can put Inyo and Mono with San Bernadino easily as the current map has. You can also gerrymander it a little to put them in with both the Republican parts of SB and rural Kern.

As for Laguna Beach, I would guess it goes into CA-49. That's what my map does right now for it at least.

Rouda filed to run in CA-48. Will he carpetbag or drop out? I can’t imagine him running in CA-45 or CA-49.

It's possible Laguna Beach will be in the new CA-48. My map has it in CA-45, with CA-48 starting at Newport Beach and stretching to the west OC border, going up into Westminster and Garden Grove more. My CA-49 is similar to the current one, but it stretches into Laguna Niguel.

...
Here is my CA map as a whole. In many ways it is a least-change map. The current map is provided for reference.

...

For some reason, I can't see any of your maps.

They're hosted on ImgBB. They appear fine on my end.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone knows what happens is hypothetically the commission can’t agree?