2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone knows what happens is hypothetically the commission can’t agree?

The court draws it

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

I wonder how much of an impact California's size has on the number of people putting out maps of it.

Both from how long it takes to make and put out a 52-district map, and also the fact that there's 20-25k precincts and it brings DRA to a screeching halt.

Hell, I have a pretty beefy rig and I have trouble sometimes, gotta wonder how many people just cannot run California in DRA because their computer can't handle it.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Anyone knows what happens is hypothetically the commission can’t agree?

The court draws it

I actually think Dems hope the commission doesn't agree, since the CA SC has a 5D-1R-1I majority.

[Epaminondas]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

Beautiful.
This map could single-handedly save the House for Dems in 2022.
Maddening that it won't get enacted out of a misguided obsession with unilateral disarming.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

Beautiful.
This map could single-handedly save the House for Dems in 2022.
Maddening that it won't get enacted out of a misguided obsession with unilateral disarming.

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2000s under the party-drawn maps:  5 (2 Congressional, 4 State Assembly, 1 State Senate loss)

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2010s under the independent commission-drawn maps:  22 (8 Congressional, 8 State Assembly, 6 State Senate)

[Epaminondas]

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2000s under the party-drawn maps:  5 (2 Congressional, 4 State Assembly, 1 State Senate loss)

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2010s under the independent commission-drawn maps:  22 (8 Congressional, 8 State Assembly, 6 State Senate)

This is in jest, isn't it?

California underwent a metamorphosis in the 2000s, from +12 Gore to +24 Obama. The CA state assembly was even GOP until 1996, when since 2018 both chambers are 75+% Dem.
This rapid polarisation explains the seat flips much better than an advantageous independent commission.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2000s under the party-drawn maps:  5 (2 Congressional, 4 State Assembly, 1 State Senate loss)

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2010s under the independent commission-drawn maps:  22 (8 Congressional, 8 State Assembly, 6 State Senate)

This is in jest, isn't it?

California underwent a metamorphosis in the 2000s, from +12 Gore to +24 Obama. The CA state assembly was even GOP until 1996, when since 2018 both chambers are 75+% Dem.
This rapid polarisation explains the seat flips much better than an advantageous independent commission.

There's a reason why most of the gains happened in 2012, the year right after redistricting. It's not that the independent commission was particularly Dem-friendly, it's just that the previous map was an "incumbent protection" gerrymander that the absolute cretins who ran the CA legislature at the time had agreed to, and in a state that's trending Dem, incumbent protection is effectively a Republican gerrymander.

[I’m not Stu]

I did a map of Garden Grove's wards.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2000s under the party-drawn maps:  5 (2 Congressional, 4 State Assembly, 1 State Senate loss)

Democratic seat gains in the House & State legislature during the 2010s under the independent commission-drawn maps:  22 (8 Congressional, 8 State Assembly, 6 State Senate)

This is in jest, isn't it?

California underwent a metamorphosis in the 2000s, from +12 Gore to +24 Obama. The CA state assembly was even GOP until 1996, when since 2018 both chambers are 75+% Dem.
This rapid polarisation explains the seat flips much better than an advantageous independent commission.

There's a reason why most of the gains happened in 2012, the year right after redistricting. It's not that the independent commission was particularly Dem-friendly, it's just that the previous map was an "incumbent protection" gerrymander that the absolute cretins who ran the CA legislature at the time had agreed to, and in a state that's trending Dem, incumbent protection is effectively a Republican gerrymander.

That's true.
The same is true in a state that is trending R.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I did a map of Garden Grove's wards.

Nice work!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Random factoids:

Races with <10% margins

2002 - 2010 (Party-drawn districts)
Congress: 15 (Across 9 different districts, GOP 10 - 5)
Assembly: 31 (Across 19 different districts, GOP 16 - 15)
Senate: 8 (Across 7 different districts, GOP 6 - 2)
TOTAL: 54 (GOP 32 - 22)

2012 - 2020 (Commission-drawn districts)
Congress: 42 (Across 21 different districts, Dem 26 - 16)
Assembly: 39 (Across 22 different districts, GOP 21 - 18)
Senate: 16 (Across 13 different districts, Dem 9 - 7)
TOTAL: 97 (Dem 53 - 44)

[Coastal Elitist]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

Beautiful.
This map could single-handedly save the House for Dems in 2022.
Maddening that it won't get enacted out of a misguided obsession with unilateral disarming.

what unilateral disarming. Democrats fought tooth and nail against the redistricting commission they even tried to overturn it via another ballot proposition after it passed.

[Non Swing Voter]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Calvert may or may not get 47, plus it looks like a chocobo if you squint.







For the curious:

Partisan leans, 2016-2020 composite


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 50.95% D    43.35% R   

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 52.21% D    47.79% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 51.02% D    48.98% R   

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

How do we make this map happen?

[BoiseBoy]

California will start drawing maps next week:

https://twitter.com/sarasadhwani/status/1443387890185035776

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

California will start drawing maps next week:

https://twitter.com/sarasadhwani/status/1443387890185035776

Let the blood bath begin

[Thunder98]

Here's a 45 Biden - 7 Trump CA map. Some of the districts turned out kind of weird tbh, especially District 1, 3 and 24. Though I was mostly following the current congressional map, but since CA lost 1 seat, it complicates everything. I factored the incumbents location in each district except in Karen Bass's district and Napolitano seat since Bass is running for LA Mayor and Napolitano doesn't even live in her own district.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d9b69534-4599-49a5-b886-8a94377cdbd6

[Kamala's side hoe]

Did a full redistricting attempt for Cali based on Re: Draw a district challenge: Whites in 4th place. 34 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 15 competitive- 10 of which are in SoCal. This was a deliberate D gerrymander of Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside Counties. I would've liked the district boundaries to correspond more closely to county and municipal boundaries.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f7f11071-3203-4611-80a7-1dd4df6500f7

#1: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" attempt for the Bay Area. Contains all of the heavily Black areas in the East Bay from Richmond (Contra Costa) through Oakland (Alameda) and the heavily Asian areas down to Milpitas and NE-most San Jose (Santa Clara).

Resident population is 28.0% Latino, 18.4% Black, 38.3% Asian, and 15.6% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 19.9-21.2% White/Black/Latino and 35.4% Asian.


#13: "Whites in 4th place and <10% of resident pop" district for the LA suburbs. Includes portions of South-Central LA proper, Inglewood, Gardena, Torrance, Carson, Long Beach, Cerritos, Buena Park (in Orange County), Fullerton, westernmost Anaheim, western Garden Grove, and Westminster's Little Saigon district.

Resident population is 33.6% Latino, 28.5% Black, 28.4% Asian, and 9.7% (Non-Hispanic) White, CVAP is 24.6% Latino, 33.1% Black, 27.9% Asian, and 12.7% (Non-Hispanic) White.

Updated version that reflects population shifts from 2019 estimates to 2020 census results: https://davesredistricting.org/join/5b7683e4-3262-4942-8387-f5593908e421

Original version (2019 population, 2016-2020 composite): 46 D-leaning, 6 R-leaning

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

New version (2020 population, 2016-2020 composite): also 46 D-leaning, 6 R-leaning, except Inyo County is now in a (Lean?) D district.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

New District #1: Resident population is 28.2% Latino, 17.0% Black, 39.7% Asian, and 15.0% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 25.6% Latino, 17.0% Black, 40.0% Asian, and 16.7% (Non-Hispanic) White.

New District #13: Resident population is 34.5% Latino, 28.3% Black, 28.3% Asian, and 9.4% (Non-Hispanic) White. CVAP is 31.5% Latino, 28.6% Black, 29.2% Asian, and 10.5% (Non-Hispanic) White.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Calvert may or may not get 47, plus it looks like a chocobo if you squint.

For the curious:

Partisan leans, 2016-2020 composite


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 50.95% D    43.35% R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 52.21% D    47.79% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 51.02% D    48.98% R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

California is the biggest pain in the butt to draw maps for. Shuffling any sizeable population imbalances around involves passing precincts through a massive chain of other districts.







I present California v2, now with THREE (!!) majority-Asian VAP districts:
10 (50.3% Asian VAP), 15(54.0% VAP), 32(50.7% VAP)

10 (Stanford-Mountain Vale-Cupertino and the Asian parts of Santa Clara and Saratoga)
15 (San Leandro-Fremont-Milpitas and a stretch into the eastern outskirts of San Jose)
and the very *special* 32 (SGV district, sadly the 626 isn't quite big enough for its own district, and bringing it into Monrovia-Duarte or Pasadena really does a number on the Asian population, it's a lot closer to 40% if you leave out the stretch into Walnut-Rowland Heights).

17 is plurality-Asian at 32.4% VAP, and 14 and 8 are fairly close to being plurality-Asian but I kind of hollowed them out a bit to hit 50% in 10 and 15.

Tried to cut out some (a few, can't get too impartial) county splits and neaten up the edges a bit on most districts. Some are essentially unchanged, like the CA-47 chocobo, and the CA-22 chicken.

The LA and SF metros got substantially rearranged to shift to more of a VRA focus, I tried my best to try and draw a Black-plurality district in LA but failed, I really don't think it's possible any more, short of taking some fairly extreme liberties with the district.

Oh, and I basically copied Sabrina Cervantes' district for CA-46 because she is iconic and should get it.
 

2016-2020 Composites:



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-23, 51.05% D    42.42% R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-41, 51.99% D    48.01% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 47D-5R

Closest seat: CA-41, 49.82% D    50.18% R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-41, 52.33% D    45.49% R

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

Draws out LaMalfa, McClintock, Obernolte, Garcia, Kim, Steel, and Issa, and draws together Nunes, Valadao, and McCarthy(or he's drawn out into 21)

Calvert may or may not get 47, plus it looks like a chocobo if you squint.

For the curious:

Partisan leans, 2016-2020 composite


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 50.95% D    43.35% R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 52.21% D    47.79% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-44, 51.02% D    48.98% R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-47, 43.66% D    54.37% R

California is the biggest pain in the butt to draw maps for. Shuffling any sizeable population imbalances around involves passing precincts through a massive chain of other districts.







I present California v2, now with THREE (!!) majority-Asian VAP districts:
10 (50.3% Asian VAP), 15(54.0% VAP), 32(50.7% VAP)

10 (Stanford-Mountain Vale-Cupertino and the Asian parts of Santa Clara and Saratoga)
15 (San Leandro-Fremont-Milpitas and a stretch into the eastern outskirts of San Jose)
and the very *special* 32 (SGV district, sadly the 626 isn't quite big enough for its own district, and bringing it into Monrovia-Duarte or Pasadena really does a number on the Asian population, it's a lot closer to 40% if you leave out the stretch into Walnut-Rowland Heights).

17 is plurality-Asian at 32.4% VAP, and 14 and 8 are fairly close to being plurality-Asian but I kind of hollowed them out a bit to hit 50% in 10 and 15.

Tried to cut out some (a few, can't get too impartial) county splits and neaten up the edges a bit on most districts. Some are essentially unchanged, like the CA-47 chocobo, and the CA-22 chicken.

The LA and SF metros got substantially rearranged to shift to more of a VRA focus, I tried my best to try and draw a Black-plurality district in LA but failed, I really don't think it's possible any more, short of taking some fairly extreme liberties with the district.

Oh, and I basically copied Sabrina Cervantes' district for CA-46 because she is iconic and should get it.
 

2016-2020 Composites:



Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-23, 51.05% D    42.42% R

2018 California Attorney General Election: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-41, 51.99% D    48.01% R

2018 California Gubernatorial Election: 47D-5R

Closest seat: CA-41, 49.82% D    50.18% R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in California: 48D-4R

Closest seat: CA-41, 52.33% D    45.49% R

Gentletheys, why cede four seats to republicans when we can cede three?

This map has more asian majority seats (four) then Republican Majority seats


https://davesredistricting.org/join/73563fbf-b250-4fc9-b517-0c749e01e956

This map does have more seats in the "Likely" category but even in the abosolute worse case scenario where all of them flip it is still only 7 that would be one less then current. And that's only if the San Jose, Sacremento, and LA suburbs/exurbs trend right when all signs point to otherwise. It does all this while also being (somewhat) compact.

The closest is the OC Coastal which went from R+5 in 2016 to R+1 (alost EVEN) in 2020. In 2020 it voted for Biden 51.4/46.6.

South LA County isn't filled in (except for me seeing is it's possible for a plurality black seat) simply because it is so democratic and I'm just trying to show an extreme Demmander

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

[-snip- for conciseness]

Gentletheys, why cede four seats to republicans when we can cede three?

This map has more asian majority seats (four) then Republican Majority seats


https://davesredistricting.org/join/73563fbf-b250-4fc9-b517-0c749e01e956

This map does have more seats in the "Likely" category but even in the abosolute worse case scenario where all of them flip it is still only 7 that would be one less then current. And that's only if the San Jose, Sacremento, and LA suburbs/exurbs trend right when all signs point to otherwise. It does all this while also being (somewhat) compact.

The closest is the OC Coastal which went from R+5 in 2016 to R+1 (alost EVEN) in 2020. In 2020 it voted for Biden 51.4/46.6.

South LA County isn't filled in (except for me seeing is it's possible for a plurality black seat) simply because it is so democratic and I'm just trying to show an extreme Demmander

lmao impressive. I would recommend filling out the LA districts to solidify things because geography tends to get a little weird while trying to balance populations across the LA metro. I will say that I'll probably be redoing my map to get something more realistic around 40% for Asian VAP pops because 50% is honestly not the most useful and probably serves more as a pack than anything.

A few comments on areas of interest:

- I tried to keep the LA County border a lot neater at the top, which does make the Central Valley tougher because you can't pull from LA.

- Riverside-SB seems kind of messy, especially with CD-4. tbh CD-4 is really kinda contrived and brings together a lot of fairly disparate COIs, would not recommend.

- Not sold on 34 as a pack, it should be centered on Temecula-Murrieta-Menifee. Feels like the Calimesa and SD arms are kind of contrived.

- 41 should drop the Rolling Hills bit, that's much more suited to an LA coastal-Westside district.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

[-snip- for conciseness]

[snipy]

lmao impressive. I would recommend filling out the LA districts to solidify things because geography tends to get a little weird while trying to balance populations across the LA metro. I will say that I'll probably be redoing my map to get something more realistic around 40% for Asian VAP pops because 50% is honestly not the most useful and probably serves more as a pack than anything.

A few comments on areas of interest:

- I tried to keep the LA County border a lot neater at the top, which does make the Central Valley tougher because you can't pull from LA.

- Riverside-SB seems kind of messy, especially with CD-4. tbh CD-4 is really kinda contrived and brings together a lot of fairly disparate COIs, would not recommend.

- Not sold on 34 as a pack, it should be centered on Temecula-Murrieta-Menifee. Feels like the Calimesa and SD arms are kind of contrived.

- 41 should drop the Rolling Hills bit, that's much more suited to an LA coastal-Westside district.

Yea no the map is not the best and I genuinely ignored everything besides as many asian minority as possible and as many democrats as possible. In addition to the four majority asian seats there is an additional three that are plurality asian. This is where a lot of the messyness in northeast LA county comes from in drawing thosse and the consequences of that,

CD 4 exists in that wau solely because I was grouping Asian Americans together, while drawing it I was even thinking "this is a bad disitrct and I have no idea if these "asian" communities are conencted culturally"

San Bernadino and Rierside issue and the Calimesa are connecting becuase Calimesa is actually where I started drawing the seat funnily enough. I found it's really easy to banish the republicans from San Diego county centered seat, but that does fore one just to the north. If I gave it another pass or two it might be cleaner. If Calimesa isn’t drawn into a sink it has too many people and makes it’s a swing

I went pack and forth on whether 41 should take more of Long beach or more coast so yea you're right.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

hang on besties i might be able to get them down to two with out like weird san fran tenticles

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

hang on besties i might be able to get them down to two with out like weird san fran tenticles

so um yea with minimal snakage you can get a 50-2 map....

[Non Swing Voter]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering. 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So... here's the two republican map



The North is exaxtly the same as my previous post. This is really closer to a 49-2-1, but hey that's better.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ac39ba52-77a8-4c90-b5b6-0a93267ea798

If I gave it another pass I could probably make it neater/safer