2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Got bored, decided to take it balls to the wall. Bears barely any resemblance to the commission visualization outside of the main metros, which are still mostly untouched.









https://davesredistricting.org/join/a163e6c0-d47d-471a-8ce0-a120e1f282c8

Didn't bother going for equal populations, I'll save that for some of the maps coming up.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Got bored, decided to take it balls to the wall. Bears barely any resemblance to the commission visualization outside of the main metros, which are still mostly untouched.









https://davesredistricting.org/join/a163e6c0-d47d-471a-8ce0-a120e1f282c8

Didn't bother going for equal populations, I'll save that for some of the maps coming up.

That big San Bernardino CD is the epitome of "land doesn't vote, people do".

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

For 2022 I think it's quite possible only Harder CA-10 and Garcia CA-25 flip, washing each other out. However, it's easy to see a 2023-24 with Trump and congressional GOP going crazy where the Rs end up getting obliterated and lose CA-10,21,22,39,48,50 all at once.

Eh, I’d say Bera’s new seat could flip in 2022 as well. And Issa’s may also fall. He is not a good fit for a Biden+6.

Yeah, tbh, I’d be worried if I was Bera given this map. His old district is basically being cut in half. Some hack like Kevin Kiley could win it in 2022, but I could see Bera taking it back in 2024 if he ran again.

[SevenEleven]

Have the Democrats managed to rig an independent commission to produce a gerrymander? What is going on?

It's not a gerrymander it's actually the best outcome from a CoI pov. The Bakersfield-Clovis-Mountains district was necessary to keep valley ag CoIs together, there's only one viable SoCal republican district without unnecessarily splitting minority communities, and the general trends for Republicans have not gotten better for them as they go from 10% to 20% in gateway suburbs that are losing people relative to the state and the outer areas become bluer and less white while growing significantly.

[Spectator]

Has anyone mapped out the legislative maps yet? Republicans hold a lot of Biden turf in both the state Senate and state Assembly and stand to lose even more ground.

[_.]

I'm pissed that we got DINO cucks like "CalamityBlue"* who are pushing these weak maps and they keep on UNILATERALLY DISARMING against Republicans, failing to use their greatest state, California, to their advantage for the upcoming midterms.

There is only one map which can possibly be considered. We can't be literally giving freebies to Republicans in congressional maps. No 49D-3R. No 50D-2R. No 49D-1R. All of these are basically hypermanders for the GOP. The only proper configuration is 52D-0R. Below:

Image Link

Image Link

ON DAVE'S REDISTRICTING APP

*No hard feelings man

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

You know what they say - no participation trophies!

[Spectator]

I'm pissed that we got DINO cucks like "CalamityBlue"* who are pushing these weak maps and they keep on UNILATERALLY DISARMING against Republicans, failing to use their greatest state, California, to their advantage for the upcoming midterms.

There is only one map which can possibly be considered. We can't be literally giving freebies to Republicans in congressional maps. No 49D-3R. No 50D-2R. No 49D-1R. All of these are basically hypermanders for the GOP. The only proper configuration is 52D-0R. Below:

Image Link

Image Link

ON DAVE'S REDISTRICTING APP

*No hard feelings man

All things considered, that’s really not a bad looking map aesthetically as far as gerrymanders go

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

I'm pissed that we got DINO cucks like "CalamityBlue"* who are pushing these weak maps and they keep on UNILATERALLY DISARMING against Republicans, failing to use their greatest state, California, to their advantage for the upcoming midterms.

There is only one map which can possibly be considered. We can't be literally giving freebies to Republicans in congressional maps. No 49D-3R. No 50D-2R. No 49D-1R. All of these are basically hypermanders for the GOP. The only proper configuration is 52D-0R. Below:

Image Link

Image Link

ON DAVE'S REDISTRICTING APP

*No hard feelings man

All things considered, that’s really not a bad looking map aesthetically as far as gerrymanders go

lol it's ultimately because CA's geographical bias is already in the region of ~20.7% in favor of Dems. With a statewide vote share of 65%, that just leaves another 15% that needs to be accounted for with boundaries, and a pretty reasonable mild gerrymander already accomplishes about 6% of that.

CA is just a spectacularly efficient electoral powerhouse for Dems at this point. If you take a look at other states commonly thought of as having favorable geographic voter distribution for one party, you've got MA with -30.5% D(plus -4.5% from boundaries), Wisconsin with +7.5% R (+9.4% from boundaries), and NY with -18.8% D (+2.3% from boundaries).

A good respectable gerrymander will pull an easy 6 or 7%, so the 14% in Abdullah's map is just a solid shove away from that.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1455402451771674625

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1455402451771674625

It's... marginally better than the previous viz? Progress!

Viz 1, 45-7 Biden



Viz 2, 46-6 Biden



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1ec729a6-1868-4d7d-a0c4-16f254943881


Getting closer to the beautiful 49-3!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Frustrated this map still hasn't been added to 538's redistricting tracker.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1455402451771674625

It's... marginally better than the previous viz? Progress!

Viz 1, 45-7 Biden



Viz 2, 46-6 Biden



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1ec729a6-1868-4d7d-a0c4-16f254943881


Getting closer to the beautiful 49-3!

Six main differences between this visualization and version 1:

1) North is entirely reshuffled. The coastal seat stays in it's counties, CA-01 doesn't take Yolo, Bera has more of Placer, the CA-04 successor extends southwards like many in this thread though it would a while ago. This does shift the CA-10 successor from marginally Trump in V.1 to even more Biden then now, cause removing Oakdale and the uber-white NE corner of the county makes the seat plurality Hispanic.

2) The Fremont cut is back (ugh) and the East Bay more or less resembles our current districts.

3) The CA-22 successor is now almost entirely based out of Fresno county, with the cities of Visalia and Handford, making it still majority Hispanic and a Biden seat. Does reshuffle the neighboring seats a bit - CA-16 successor resembles the current seat and CA-21 gets changed geographically - but the partisan goals remain the same.

4) CA-40 is now the cut seat, with two not-that AA seats in the West LA region. Can't see this lasting. This change forces the Long Beach seat to leave the city and head north, and the CA-44 successor cuts into the city.

5) Asian plurality seat around Pasadena and Alhambra is rightfully back as expected.

6) The CA-39 successor is almost entirely nested inside Orange with a small arm out to grab the Asian-heavy Cerritos. Despite getting Bluer parts of OC, losing the LA Asians makes this less of a Biden seat than presently. These pop transfers shoves the CA-42 successor out of OC.

[Greedo punched first]

On the second visualization, I also have a good chance of being moved moved from CA-47 to CA-48. CA-47 gets merged with much of CA-40 and becomes majority-Hispanic. Would Lowenthal retire and let Roybal-Allard run there? Might they both retire?

[DrScholl]

Nunes would likely take on Valadao on this map since it puts both of their home cities in the same district (on edit, I need to correct that Tulare is in the other district and that is the city that I believe Nunes lives in). Valadao could run for the Avenal/Bakersfield/Corcoran seat, but it's technically less favorable to him since it doesn't include Hanford.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly CA is too large to properly analyze. At least in say TX you can kinda break it down to segments of defined urban areas but CA is one urban slew

[lfromnj]

Honestly CA is too large to properly analyze. At least in say TX you can kinda break it down to segments of defined urban areas but CA is one urban slew

I would argue 2 with atleast Coastal vs Inland but yeah same point. Texas you can just group mostly by region.

Most maps generally only cross that line near Stockton(not a awful concept as Stockton is a sorta bay area exurb for super commuters) and down south.

[Хahar 🤔]

1) North is entirely reshuffled. The coastal seat stays in it's counties, CA-01 doesn't take Yolo, Bera has more of Placer, the CA-04 successor extends southwards like many in this thread though it would a while ago. This does shift the CA-10 successor from marginally Trump in V.1 to even more Biden then now, cause removing Oakdale and the uber-white NE corner of the county makes the seat plurality Hispanic.

2) The Fremont cut is back (ugh) and the East Bay more or less resembles our current districts.

Fremont may be split but the Livermore Valley isn't now, and we don't have the bizarre district that goes from the South Bay and takes in Livermore (but not Pleasanton) and then crosses the Altamont and heads all the way out to Tracy. I think this is obviously preferable.

The Sacramento Valley also makes a lot more sense now. I'm not sure why the first map split Chico and Yuba City, and the only reason I can think of to do that would be to create a gerrymander.

This doesn't really matter, but the names given to districts in the document are very strange. The Santa Clara district is at least in Santa Clara County, although it doesn't contain Santa Clara proper, but the district labeled Cupertino is not the district with Cupertino in it. On that note, it's funny to see the way the Asian district takes a bite out of the western Santa Clara County district by taking in Cupertino. It looks ugly, it doesn't serve an actual community of interest ("Asian" isn't a community of interest), and ultimately that district still ends up only 48% Asian by VAP.

Honestly CA is too large to properly analyze. At least in say TX you can kinda break it down to segments of defined urban areas but CA is one urban slew

What? There is a very large space in between the state's two main urban areas.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

1) North is entirely reshuffled. The coastal seat stays in it's counties, CA-01 doesn't take Yolo, Bera has more of Placer, the CA-04 successor extends southwards like many in this thread though it would a while ago. This does shift the CA-10 successor from marginally Trump in V.1 to even more Biden then now, cause removing Oakdale and the uber-white NE corner of the county makes the seat plurality Hispanic.

2) The Fremont cut is back (ugh) and the East Bay more or less resembles our current districts.

Fremont may be split but the Livermore Valley isn't now, and we don't have the bizarre district that goes from the South Bay and takes in Livermore (but not Pleasanton) and then crosses the Altamont and heads all the way out to Tracy. I think this is obviously preferable.

The Sacramento Valley also makes a lot more sense now. I'm not sure why the first map split Chico and Yuba City, and the only reason I can think of to do that would be to create a gerrymander.

This doesn't really matter, but the names given to districts in the document are very strange. The Santa Clara district is at least in Santa Clara County, although it doesn't contain Santa Clara proper, but the district labeled Cupertino is not the district with Cupertino in it. On that note, it's funny to see the way the Asian district takes a bite out of the western Santa Clara County district by taking in Cupertino. It looks ugly, it doesn't serve an actual community of interest ("Asian" isn't a community of interest), and ultimately that district still ends up only 48% Asian by VAP.

Honestly CA is too large to properly analyze. At least in say TX you can kinda break it down to segments of defined urban areas but CA is one urban slew

What? There is a very large space in between the state's two main urban areas.

Well it's kinda like, even with the Bay Area having 10 districts, the central coastal district goes practically all the way to Ventura, and the central valley connects to both the Bay and LA, and there's only about 4 inland seats, two of which link up with the major metros near them

[CityByTheValley]

This doesn't really matter, but the names given to districts in the document are very strange. The Santa Clara district is at least in Santa Clara County, although it doesn't contain Santa Clara proper, but the district labeled Cupertino is not the district with Cupertino in it. On that note, it's funny to see the way the Asian district takes a bite out of the western Santa Clara County district by taking in Cupertino. It looks ugly, it doesn't serve an actual community of interest ("Asian" isn't a community of interest), and ultimately that district still ends up only 48% Asian by VAP.

The weird inclusion of Cupertino with other areas due to the Asian presence makes 0 sense with a clear lack of connection between them and the rest of the district except maybe southern Sunnyvale, and I believe this was a criticism of last decade’s map which the commission clearly ignores. I live pretty close to the area and it’s a lot more interconnected with West SJ/Saratoga population wise than Fremont. Would make much more sense for it to be a part of the Silicon Valley district to the West, and that district should also take out San Carlos and include Los Gatos instead, switching this with the weird SF-Peninsula-Santa Cruz district.

The East Bay districts imo should also connect all areas in the outer East Bay and maybe the hill parts of Berkeley/Oakland as opposed to dividing up Tri Valley and Danville/Lamorinda. Clearly the commissioners have 0 clue what they’re doing and are deferring to last year’s map- reminds me somewhat of Mass Dems keeping that ugly reach into Fall River in Kennedy’s old district which makes no sense now that Frank is gone. The Senate map is somehow even more horrendous than this one though and the commission has a lot of work to do.

[kwabbit]

Is it wrong to put the White parts of SF with Marin and then attach the Asian parts to San Mateo to make an Asian district?

[BoiseBoy]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

[Nyvin]

Too bad Bera and Harder can't get safe seats when there's dem vote sinks right next door to them.

[lfromnj]

Did they actually chop the Santa Ana Anaheim seat?

[Sbane]

Did they actually chop the Santa Ana Anaheim seat?

They did and it is completely unacceptable. Fountain Valley and Santa Ana in the same district is ridiculous.