2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Figuruing out how the commission can get as many seats as possible. OC probably needs half an R sink really so mashed CA 39/42/50 for 2 R sinks.

Levin and Porter get Obama 08 districts too and splits the GOP bases of CA 48th of Newport/Huntington beach by putting the Asians in a LA seat thats Clinton +18 although prob only mid single digit Biden as it was Mccain +1.

The white base of CA 48th gets shoved with Long Beach. A decent number of county splits but I am relatively following city lines.

The commission will not go out of its way to create these ugly lines and create a Democratic gerrymander, it's a nonpartisan commission

Sure it will

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are these anything but preliminary draft maps? Michigan has about 25 drafts and counting.

They are kinda like the maps released in Arizona so far.  Its a good guide of how overall the map probably will look, but it can be affected substantially by public comment.

I’d say public comment matters a bit more here that AZ just based on the last redistricting cycle

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So which incumbents are double-bunked or in competitive seats?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are these drafts pre-citizen comment?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do we think 42-10 is the most likely outcome here?

GOP wins:
*The Issa seat
*The Calvert seat
*The Obernolte seat
*The McCarthy seat
*The McClintock seat
*The LaMalfa seat
*The open CA-5 bordering the bluer seat that Harder's gonna run in
*The new competitive seat where Steel is running (CA-45)
*The new competitive seat where Kim is running (CA-40)
*And the blue seat that Valadao holds but routinely over-performs in by a lot

While Dems hold all the safe blue seats, take down Garcia in his now even bluer seat, and the Biden +lowdoubledigit seats where Porter, Harder, Levin will run

For a net outcome of R-1, D+0

Valadao, Garcia, and Steel probably all lose

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Do we think 42-10 is the most likely outcome here?

GOP wins:
*The Issa seat
*The Calvert seat
*The Obernolte seat
*The McCarthy seat
*The McClintock seat
*The LaMalfa seat
*The open CA-5 bordering the bluer seat that Harder's gonna run in
*The new competitive seat where Steel is running (CA-45)
*The new competitive seat where Kim is running (CA-40)
*And the blue seat that Valadao holds but routinely over-performs in by a lot

While Dems hold all the safe blue seats, take down Garcia in his now even bluer seat, and the Biden +lowdoubledigit seats where Porter, Harder, Levin will run

For a net outcome of R-1, D+0

Valadao, Garcia, and Steel probably all lose

Steel likely holds on in 2022. and Valadao is more likely than not to survive as well. Garcia though could go either way.

I actually think Valadao is the most likely of the three to go down