2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Oryxslayer]

Roughly what's the net change in number of trump and biden seats ?

Trump barely wins the successor CA-10 and CA-48 seats under these lines, though Biden wins the successor CA-50 and CA-22 seats, so its 45-7 cause dems down one through reapportioned. That said, there are only four seats I would say are Safe R on this map, whereas there are presently six or seven depending on your measure. GOP trades two safe seats for two swing ones of various loyalties and the CA-01 successor is marginal. The two marginals might not remain so: CA-48 is GOP by a tiny bit so moving a few precincts may change the topline, CA10 could drop the white precincts in the east of San Joaquin given Latino interests. I think the CA-08 successor got less competitive without Rancho Cucamonga though.

Of course there are new Dem marginal seats on the other side of the coin.

Rancho Cucamonga itself is currently in CA-31 so CA-08 couldn't have dropped it. It actually appears to have gotten more competitive as it dropped a lot of small Republican towns around Joshua Tree and 29 Palms to CA-36 and some of the GOP-leaning suburbs north of Rancho Cucamonga to CA-27, but picked up Redlands, which is a Democratic-leaning city.

Thank you for the corrections - I mistakenly misremembered CD08 having said more of RC than two precincts - probably confusion with the state senate that does do a weird reach-around. With that in mind, I will defer to you here. Adding Redland definitely makes tighter, but that said some of the new turf south of Yucapia/Calimesa is red.

[Thunder98]

I don't like how SLO County is being split.

If SLO is to be split at all (and not doing so has big implications for Monterey/Santa Cruz/Santa Clara and Ventura/Los Angeles), Cuesta Grade is certainly the best possible place to do it. Don't you agree?

If SLO County has to be split, then I agree that the Cuesta Grade would be the best natural border to split districts.

[Non Swing Voter]

So what is the net effect of this?  Seems unclear but based on everyone's comments it sounds like the GOP might end up losing 1-2 net seats in a neutral election year.

[Devils30]

For 2022 I think it's quite possible only Harder CA-10 and Garcia CA-25 flip, washing each other out. However, it's easy to see a 2023-24 with Trump and congressional GOP going crazy where the Rs end up getting obliterated and lose CA-10,21,22,39,48,50 all at once.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

From what we now know, how many Trump districts do y'all think are in the map? 5? 7? 9?

Started putting it into VRA. Issa goes from Trump+8 to Biden+6, Young Kim goes from Biden+10 to Biden+8, Steel goes from Biden+2 to Trump+0. So in OC/SD, Issa flips to Biden but Steel (by like 700 votes) flips to Trump.

What happens to Garcia, Porter, and Levin?

Garcia: Biden+10 -> Biden+12

Porter: Biden+11 -> Biden+14
Levin: Biden+13 -> Biden+11

Porter and Levin should be good. Levin moving right moves Issa left.

Anddddddd out of state opportunities once again take the forefront.

[Tekken_Guy]

For 2022 I think it's quite possible only Harder CA-10 and Garcia CA-25 flip, washing each other out. However, it's easy to see a 2023-24 with Trump and congressional GOP going crazy where the Rs end up getting obliterated and lose CA-10,21,22,39,48,50 all at once.

Eh, I’d say Bera’s new seat could flip in 2022 as well. And Issa’s may also fall. He is not a good fit for a Biden+6.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

The Visualization map is obviously suuuuper rough around the edges, huge population disparities so it's definitely not anywhere near draft status, but I noticed that it's got a surprising amount of potential.

I'm going off the Daily Kos DRA map available here:
https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1453425053446590468






Big thing that stuck out was that there's only one (!!) solid R district. The district population centers are just begging for a little nudge off the edge to build a great map. Plus it seems like they're going down the path of deprioritizing county splits and compactness, which makes it even easier.

Just off trimming the edges and shifting things around a bit, I managed to get it from a 45-7 Biden map to a 48-4 map, while also knocking Steel 7 points left and Kim 4 points left, and shoring up that new Visalia district.





They've squared the circle! No more Temecula-Murrieta-Menifee sink needed! The configuration I have it in is Biden+4, which is just a few points away from knocking Calvert off, which could well happen within the next couple cycles, given how fast Temecula-Murrieta is shifting blue.

If this is the baseline map, I'm looking forward to seeing what they come up with once it's refined. Lots of potential.

[Alcibiades]

So Nunes now has a Biden seat, albeit a narrow one?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So Nunes now has a Biden seat, albeit a narrow one?

Looks like it.
It'll be nice seeing him try to adjust to this new constituency. Among the most partisan CA Rs, stuck in a Biden district....

[Oryxslayer]

So Nunes now has a Biden seat, albeit a narrow one?

Looks like it.
It'll be nice seeing him try to adjust to this new constituency. Among the most partisan CA Rs, stuck in a Biden district....

Yeah, I expect if the seat remains similar politically that Nunes will go down in '24. Imagine how much money would go to a challenger that actually had a chance, given what happened in '18.

[Spectator]

So Nunes now has a Biden seat, albeit a narrow one?

Looks like it.
It'll be nice seeing him try to adjust to this new constituency. Among the most partisan CA Rs, stuck in a Biden district....

Yeah, I expect if the seat remains similar politically that Nunes will go down in '24. Imagine how much money would go to a challenger that actually had a chance, given what happened in '18.

Yes, I have a feeling that a lot of the GOP incumbents barring Issa and Garcia survive 2022 but lose in 2024. This is a pretty good map for Dems to capitalize on as the decade progresses. The Central Valley seats including Costa’s are all liable to fall, but LaMalfa’s will probably fall by the end of the decade, as well as maybe Calvert’s

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Starting to think the commission were actually geniuses. There's so much potential in this map.

Reworked the norcal bits a little to take advantage of the northern inland district careening left in the proposal, and with a little elbow grease LaMalfa goes from Trump+15 in the current map to Trump+6 in the "visualization" and Biden+7.5 in this map.



All of this, without even touching the core population centers of SF and LA! Literally just left those alone and reworked the SB-Riverside-OC borders and the Sac/Fresno/Modesto suburbs, and got this beautiful map out of it.

[Oryxslayer]

Starting to think the commission were actually geniuses. There's so much potential in this map.

Reworked the norcal bits a little to take advantage of the northern inland district careening left in the proposal, and with a little elbow grease LaMalfa goes from Trump+15 in the current map to Trump+6 in the "visualization" and Biden+7.5 in this map.


All of this, without even touching the core population centers of SF and LA! Literally just left those alone and reworked the SB-Riverside-OC borders and the Sac/Fresno/Modesto suburbs, and got this beautiful map out of it.

I mean I know you are gerrymandering here, but everyone should bear in mind that the initial 2010 visualizations were the best map ever made that cycle for the GOP, the various drafts and impact of minority concerns led to the maps getting better and better for the Dems.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Starting to think the commission were actually geniuses. There's so much potential in this map.

Reworked the norcal bits a little to take advantage of the northern inland district careening left in the proposal, and with a little elbow grease LaMalfa goes from Trump+15 in the current map to Trump+6 in the "visualization" and Biden+7.5 in this map.


All of this, without even touching the core population centers of SF and LA! Literally just left those alone and reworked the SB-Riverside-OC borders and the Sac/Fresno/Modesto suburbs, and got this beautiful map out of it.

I mean I know you are gerrymandering here, but everyone should bear in mind that the initial 2010 visualizations were the best map ever made that cycle for the GOP, the various drafts and impact of minority concerns led to the maps getting better and better for the Dems.

Oh, I have no doubt that the commission will pay special attention to the various minority concerns and COIs in a way that leads up to a beautiful and FAIR map! My mind is just blown by the sheer potential inherent within this first map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Starting to think the commission were actually geniuses. There's so much potential in this map.

Reworked the norcal bits a little to take advantage of the northern inland district careening left in the proposal, and with a little elbow grease LaMalfa goes from Trump+15 in the current map to Trump+6 in the "visualization" and Biden+7.5 in this map.


All of this, without even touching the core population centers of SF and LA! Literally just left those alone and reworked the SB-Riverside-OC borders and the Sac/Fresno/Modesto suburbs, and got this beautiful map out of it.

I mean I know you are gerrymandering here, but everyone should bear in mind that the initial 2010 visualizations were the best map ever made that cycle for the GOP, the various drafts and impact of minority concerns led to the maps getting better and better for the Dems.

wait, what did the 2010 visualizations look like?

[Tintrlvr]

Starting to think the commission were actually geniuses. There's so much potential in this map.

Reworked the norcal bits a little to take advantage of the northern inland district careening left in the proposal, and with a little elbow grease LaMalfa goes from Trump+15 in the current map to Trump+6 in the "visualization" and Biden+7.5 in this map.


All of this, without even touching the core population centers of SF and LA! Literally just left those alone and reworked the SB-Riverside-OC borders and the Sac/Fresno/Modesto suburbs, and got this beautiful map out of it.

I mean I know you are gerrymandering here, but everyone should bear in mind that the initial 2010 visualizations were the best map ever made that cycle for the GOP, the various drafts and impact of minority concerns led to the maps getting better and better for the Dems.

Oh, I have no doubt that the commission will pay special attention to the various minority concerns and COIs in a way that leads up to a beautiful and FAIR map! My mind is just blown by the sheer potential inherent within this first map.

If you do it this way, surely better to put Sutter County into a Republican seat and liberate Truckee and South Lake Tahoe?

Edit: On this map, both CA-1 and CA-2 are Biden+17. CA-4 is Trump+16 and would, once the rest of the map is drawn, be the only winnable district in NorCal for the Republicans.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f35c60eb-6e6c-4374-b315-8bad626677d2

Edit2: If you click through, I swapped Lake County for the rest of Santa Rosa in CA-1 so it is now Biden+22.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Starting to think the commission were actually geniuses. There's so much potential in this map.

Reworked the norcal bits a little to take advantage of the northern inland district careening left in the proposal, and with a little elbow grease LaMalfa goes from Trump+15 in the current map to Trump+6 in the "visualization" and Biden+7.5 in this map.


All of this, without even touching the core population centers of SF and LA! Literally just left those alone and reworked the SB-Riverside-OC borders and the Sac/Fresno/Modesto suburbs, and got this beautiful map out of it.

I mean I know you are gerrymandering here, but everyone should bear in mind that the initial 2010 visualizations were the best map ever made that cycle for the GOP, the various drafts and impact of minority concerns led to the maps getting better and better for the Dems.

Oh, I have no doubt that the commission will pay special attention to the various minority concerns and COIs in a way that leads up to a beautiful and FAIR map! My mind is just blown by the sheer potential inherent within this first map.

If you do it this way, surely better to put Sutter County into a Republican seat and liberate Truckee and South Lake Tahoe?

Edit: On this map, both CA-1 and CA-2 are Biden+17. CA-4 is Trump+16 and would, once the rest of the map is drawn, be the only winnable district in NorCal for the Republicans.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f35c60eb-6e6c-4374-b315-8bad626677d2

Edit2: If you click through, I swapped Lake County for the rest of Santa Rosa in CA-1 so it is now Biden+22.

You're right. Did a bunch of cleanup around the area, as well as around Riverside. CA-01 is now Biden+16, and the SW Riverside district is now Biden+5.5. And just to really seal the deal and maybe stick it to a certain R-LA around these parts, CA-25 is now Biden+17.

And for funsies, I stuck Inyo and Mono and the Sierras back into a blue district.



People were bemoaning the map on twitter last I checked, but the packing efficiency on these configurations is through the roof compared to the more conventional map I drew earlier in the thread. Declination of only -29.59°, vs -33.73° for the 48-4 map I thought was near-optimal.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

It’s some how poetic that every major democratic state has a Republican floor of three seats

[SevenEleven]

lmao.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s some how poetic that every major democratic state has a Republican floor of three seats

Rule of Three.

[Pericles]

Have the Democrats managed to rig an independent commission to produce a gerrymander? What is going on?

[OBD]

Have the Democrats managed to rig an independent commission to produce a gerrymander? What is going on?

Wishcasting that will become reality when we appoint CalamityBlue to the California commission.

[MaxQue]

Have the Democrats managed to rig an independent commission to produce a gerrymander? What is going on?

Well, by law, one of the main criteria is to maximize minority representation.

[Pollster]

Have the Democrats managed to rig an independent commission to produce a gerrymander? What is going on?

The word going around is that one of the "Republicans" on the commission lives in Berkeley and donated to Planned Parenthood as recently as 2019, though I don't know if this is true/entirely accurate.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Have the Democrats managed to rig an independent commission to produce a gerrymander? What is going on?

The word going around is that one of the "Republicans" on the commission lives in Berkeley and donated to Planned Parenthood as recently as 2019, though I don't know if this is true/entirely accurate.

It's not "word going around", it's literally available for everyone to see on the official commission website.

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ccrc/pages/14/attachments/original/1621809373/1._Andersen_-_Application.pdf?1621809373

She literally discloses all of it. Only takes about ten seconds to find this.