2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Spectator]

These all have a good chance of going GOP in a Republican year. Costa nearly lost Obama +20 seats in two different midterms.

[LimoLiberal]

Melissa Hurtado vs. Nunes could be very interesting in that configuration.

[SevenEleven]

Good news short term, bad news long term for Democrats if that’s the case.

How, these areas are becoming more Democratic lol.

[Spectator]

Good news short term, bad news long term for Democrats if that’s the case.

How, these areas are becoming more Democratic lol.

If the 2010’s were any indication, Republicans would win those districts about half of the time.

Nines would probably lose to a Rudy Salas or Melissa Hurtado figure though.

[SevenEleven]

Good news short term, bad news long term for Democrats if that’s the case.

How, these areas are becoming more Democratic lol.

If the 2010’s were any indication, Republicans would win those districts about half of the time.

Nines would probably lose to a Rudy Salas or Melissa Hurtado figure though.

That's a huge improvement over Republicans winning them 9/10 times (as we saw with the current map).

[S019]

Also a bunch of visualizations dropped showing possible configurations for the seats: https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/10_13_21_handouts

[Devils30]

Nunes might end up in a Biden district.

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1448466780029128709?s=20

This might not be so bad if Dems have a bunch of seats they can pull out in a D+2 type of year. Nunes will have trouble outrunning the GOP baseline due to his history.

[It’s so Joever]

Also a bunch of visualizations dropped showing possible configurations for the seats: https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/10_13_21_handouts

These all look kinda bad for Dems??? Or maybe I’m just looking at it wrong.

[It’s so Joever]

Absolutely disgusting.
California is a failed state.

[LimoLiberal]

Ami Bera in trouble?

https://twitter.com/spamalaanderzon/status/1448420877486333953

[S019]

Ami Bera in trouble?

https://twitter.com/spamalaanderzon/status/1448420877486333953

Unsurprising, his seat was always going to need to expand

[Spectator]

Garcia gets a slightly redder seat, but still pretty blue by replacing Simi Valley with a chunk of Kern County. Only a matter of time before he loses.

[S019]

Garcia gets a slightly redder seat, but still pretty blue by replacing Simi Valley with a chunk of Kern County. Only a matter of time before he loses.

what was this seat on Biden numbers?

[Spectator]

Thunderstorming where my house is so can’t get internet on the laptop, but it def gets a little redder and whiter based on the CVAP. Biden will still have easily won it though.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1448495269591531522

Looks like McClintock was axed, assuming we still get the expected lost seat from LA, this means we'll need a new seat somewhere.

[Devils30]

Are these anything but preliminary draft maps? Michigan has about 25 drafts and counting.

[I’m not Stu]

One of the drafts has a Garden Grove-Westminster-Cypress-Seal Beach-Fountain Valley-Huntington Beach district similar to what I’ve drawn.

[JerryArkansas]

Are these anything but preliminary draft maps? Michigan has about 25 drafts and counting.

They are kinda like the maps released in Arizona so far.  Its a good guide of how overall the map probably will look, but it can be affected substantially by public comment.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are these anything but preliminary draft maps? Michigan has about 25 drafts and counting.

They are kinda like the maps released in Arizona so far.  Its a good guide of how overall the map probably will look, but it can be affected substantially by public comment.

I’d say public comment matters a bit more here that AZ just based on the last redistricting cycle

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1448495269591531522

Looks like McClintock was axed, assuming we still get the expected lost seat from LA, this means we'll need a new seat somewhere.

Hate it. Republicans shouldn’t be allowed access to the pacific coast for A e s t h e t i c s

[Tintrlvr]

Ami Bera in trouble?

https://twitter.com/spamalaanderzon/status/1448420877486333953

Calling Folsom "conservative" is misleading; it was Biden+7. Sure it's historically Republican but that's neither here nor there. Roseville and Rocklin are also fast trending D, with Roseville only Trump+1 and Rocklin Trump+5. This is a very trends-are-real type of district that would have been unwinnable for the Democrats 10 years ago and will be unwinnable for the Republicans 10 years from now; Bera just has to hold on for a cycle.

[Sol]

I dunno, I'd still be worried about losing that district if I'm Ami Bera, given his rather corrupt track record and the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

[Devils30]

Valadao getting a slightly R district and Nunes getting a tossup seat is probably a fine deal for Dems. The key is being able to win the House in those neutral D+2 years if an open seat pops up and both would accomplish that goal. Harder looks like he could get a minimal change seat and that is a potential problem with the way rural Hispanics have trended. SoCal is where Dems should want a good map, if Kim gets stuck in a Biden +17 seat she is finished.

[Mr.Phips]

I dunno, I'd still be worried about losing that district if I'm Ami Bera, given his rather corrupt track record and the tendency of affluent historically Republican suburbs to go back to their roots, as seen in Orange County last year.

Bera can probably take a hit of a point or two and still be OK even in 2022.  Anymore than that becomes quite problematic.

[Хahar 🤔]

Hate it. Republicans shouldn’t be allowed access to the pacific coast for A e s t h e t i c s

A seat linking the north coast with the Sacramento Valley would also be very stupid for practical reasons.