2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[It’s so Joever]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

Change the Sacramento configuration a bit and that actually looks good.

[It’s so Joever]

Did they actually chop the Santa Ana Anaheim seat?

They did and it is completely unacceptable. Fountain Valley and Santa Ana in the same district is ridiculous.

Why?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

WTF are those giant desert seats, by god, they're so bloody ugly. I always thought our current map had some wonky looking seats, but by god, at least you can actually have straight lines.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Did they actually chop the Santa Ana Anaheim seat?

They did and it is completely unacceptable. Fountain Valley and Santa Ana in the same district is ridiculous.

Why?

They’re neighboring suburbs/cities with very different socioeconomic profiles. Fountain Valley is affluent and R-leaning, Santa Ana is working-class and strongly D.

It’s great if you want to gerrymander the shiite out of SoCal like I did in my “draw a LAX suburban district that’s <10% non-Hispanic white” CA map. Actually I wonder if my map inspired that lmao

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this map looks godawful. I have no idea what the commission is doing this time around, when they did a pretty good job in 2011.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, this map looks godawful. I have no idea what the commission is doing this time around, when they did a pretty good job in 2011.

They are all visualizations, unless you are referring to the collective sum of the visualizations. None is final, and some are better than others in my opinion.


Also, I seem to recall from reading through the old thread that one of the 2010 visualizations divided up the OC Hispanic cities just like this one, of course back then though the chatter was how dividing such groups benefited the GOP. Said visualization didn't last long.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this map looks godawful. I have no idea what the commission is doing this time around, when they did a pretty good job in 2011.

They are all visualizations, unless you are referring to the collective sum of the visualizations. None is final, and some are better than others in my opinion.


Also, I seem to recall from reading through the old thread that one of the 2010 visualizations divided up the OC Hispanic cities just like this one, of course back then though the chatter was how dividing such groups benefited the GOP. Said visualization didn't last long.

Yeah, I know it's just a proposal, but it's a terrible proposal and should be called out as such. I know some of the earlier maps were better, so I hope they stick with those.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Another visualization was released yesterday (11/07), and well, it's something...



https://davesredistricting.org/join/33c10671-b884-4cfe-a898-213073b37680

Change the Sacramento configuration a bit and that actually looks good.

The Sacramento area (especially Sacramento County and West Sacramento) is absolutely getting the shaft in all of these maps and it’s disgusting. Not even the fact that Bera might be wiped out, but like at least Bera’s current district is entirely within Sacramento County and Matsui’s district has West Sac and uses the Yolo causeway as a natural divider (West Sac is also in the 916/279 area code as opposed to 530 of Davis, Woodland, and Winters). I get having the Delta as a community of interest (and not just because that’s where Garamendi lives), but like keep Placer County whole and not with Sacramento County please. And don’t stick Folsom in that mountain monstrosity.

[BoiseBoy]

The commission has approved DRAFTS (not visualizations) of Assembly, Senate, Congressional, and BOE maps on a 14-0 vote.

They can be found here:
https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps

[Oryxslayer]

The commission has approved DRAFTS (not visualizations) of Assembly, Senate, Congressional, and BOE maps on a 14-0 vote.

They can be found here:
https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps

This congress plan has some fairly big divergences from the visualizations, including:

- The final result of constantly pushing CA-07 northwards: CA-04 gets revived. But now there's two north-south Sacramento county seats, so it's Harder whose seat becomes the Uber-White Valley seat that facilitates Nunes getting screwed.  

- Central coast seat gets all of Santa Cruz and the Hispanic seat is East San Jose + San Benito. This probably has minority issues.

- CA-39 is a Sprawling "C" shaped seat that goes from Brea, around the edge of OC, and then takes in Cerritos and the Vietnamese communities.

- Steele has UC Irvine, the city is cut north-south. Porter much more vulnerable.

- LA Asian seat missing some of the Asian communities.

- Imperal-Palm Springs Hispanic seat facilitated by a WTF successor to CA-42.

- Issa might be still in a R seat, but either way the seat is marginal and is more or less the north of his current seat + Murrieta. The GOP suburbs east of San Deigo are cracked and paired with parts of the city.

EDIT: Yep, 46-6 in 2020.

https://twitter.com/TadeuszMrozek2/status/1458645543236739076?s=20

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1458648904652574728

CA-10: Harder gets shored up considerably
CA-21: Valadao will win in 2022, could be in play if he's MAGA'ed
CA-22: Nunes will not survive past 2024
CA-25: Garcia looks cooked even in a R wave
CA-39: Kim gets a better seat, we'll see how long it lasts
CA-45: Porter in trouble for 2022, too liberal for seat.
CA-48: Steel in serious trouble
CA-50: Issa wins in 2022, district trend will take him over by 2024-26.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1458648904652574728

CA-10: Harder gets shored up considerably
CA-21: Valadao will win in 2022, could be in play if he's MAGA'ed
CA-22: Nunes will not survive past 2024
CA-25: Garcia looks cooked even in a R wave
CA-39: Kim gets a better seat, we'll see how long it lasts
CA-45: Porter in trouble for 2022, too liberal for seat.
CA-48: Steel in serious trouble
CA-50: Issa wins in 2022, district trend will take him over by 2024-26.

I agree with the comment that in this map Porter should switch to CA-48. Plus knocking out Nunes would be incredible.

[cvparty]

The commission has approved DRAFTS (not visualizations) of Assembly, Senate, Congressional, and BOE maps on a 14-0 vote.

They can be found here:
https://www.wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps

DRA map of the congressional draft if anyone wants to look...it's truly something
-Splitting Sacramento in half
-"Eastern California district" including half of the Lake Tahoe area, Modesto, Madera and Death Valley
-Bakersfield with Clovis
-La Crescenta-Montrose and Rancho Cucamonga in the same district
-Corona and Palm Desert in the same district
-Asian plurality district in OC that connects Fountain Valley and Brea
-Chino Hills with Mission Viejo without road connection
-Splitting the Coachella Valley in favor of taking in Hemet

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Has the commission just phoned it in at this point?

Not that I'm complaining... this map looks to be a net positive for D's.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean the Riverside/Imperial stuff is what is needed if you were to make a truly performing new Hispanic seat out of the region (while keeping the SD successor Hispanic seat in SD, and that's the oddest part of the lines. Plenty of other peculiarities lack minority justification though.

[Nyvin]

CA-3 is basically a new district, would LaMalfa or McClintock run in that?

If Thompson runs in CA-8 then Garamendi can run in CA-4.

I gotta say the San Diego/Orange County area makes me nervous, that's a lot of competitive seats, might be better just to make an R sink somewhere down there.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What's Garcia district like under this map ?

[politicallefty]

That's a very odd split of Sacramento. West Sac should be with the city, but I don't think putting Davis with Sacramento would be offensive.

[H. Ross Peron]

The more I look at it, the more I dislike it. Especially don't like how Porter's seat is weakened by splitting about Irvine. I would just shore up one of Steele or Kim than risk losing Porter in exchange for a boring Rouda or an abomination like Cisneros. As a resident of CA-46, I think its time our district was split up. There's no need for an OC Dem vote sink anymore and Anaheim is more tied to other North County cities and Santa Ana with Central County cities than with each other.

[wbrocks67]

They're really out here giving Young Kim a better seat? When she's been legislating like she's in a MAGA seat? SMH.

[Oryxslayer]

They're really out here giving Young Kim a better seat? When she's been legislating like she's in a MAGA seat? SMH.

What's really interesting is that she gets the Vietnamese belt through a weird link when most maps before this, both public and commission, recognized that Steele's seat is a better place to put them.

I gotta say the San Diego/Orange County area makes me nervous, that's a lot of competitive seats, might be better just to make an R sink somewhere down there.

On every previous visualization, Issa got a D seat, so what changed? Well, previously the Hispanic seat included imperial, which allowed it to help carve up the interior of the county and released pressure on the CA-42 successor. On this map CA-42 is trying to do too many things at once, leading to it having to drop Temecula and Murrieta with the SD seats.

[Pollster]

Some of these population deviations look way too big?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Some of these population deviations look way too big?

They hired the same firm that drew the AZ 2012 maps, no surprise there.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Where does Ami Bera run?

[Minnesota Mike]

Some of these population deviations look way too big?

It will be tightened significantly in final product. This is a general idea map, the final map will be much more exacting.