Drawing 2030 Maps

[kwabbit]

Michigan 2030

Me and TimTurner were discussing Michigan's 2030 map. It's debatable whether Michigan will have 13 or 12 districts by then, but I think it's likely to keep 13. By that point, one Black CD in Detroit might make more sense. The Flint-Saginaw-Bay City area will be struggling to support a district by that point and will be Republican at the top of the ballot anyway and therefore will be scrapped, but it possibly will remain in place.

My attempt is above.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

68.8% Black on 2020 numbers might be too high for current VRA jurispence. Even with black flight from Detroit, and likely white population growth in the city, that might still work out to be 62% or so, still too high in 2030 (and too close to being a maximum-majority pack).
My solution to this was placing in lily-white Dearborn, but in 2030 this would probably guarantee a Tliab vs Thanedar primary.

[kwabbit]

68.8% Black on 2020 numbers might be too high for current VRA jurispence. Even with black flight from Detroit, and likely white population growth in the city, that might still work out to be 62% or so, still too high in 2030 (and too close to being a maximum-majority pack).
My solution to this was placing in lily-white Dearborn, but in 2030 this would probably guarantee a Tliab vs Thanedar primary.

Exchanged the Black downriver municipalities for parts of Livonia, now it's at 66.9%. Might be sub 60% by the time of the 2030 census. I don't think the Supreme Court will be that picky any time soon, given the weakening of the VRA. I guess we'll see the Alabama decision, but if that's upheld this would be as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

68.8% Black on 2020 numbers might be too high for current VRA jurispence. Even with black flight from Detroit, and likely white population growth in the city, that might still work out to be 62% or so, still too high in 2030 (and too close to being a maximum-majority pack).
My solution to this was placing in lily-white Dearborn, but in 2030 this would probably guarantee a Tliab vs Thanedar primary.

Exchanged the Black downriver municipalities for parts of Livonia, now it's at 66.9%. Might be sub 60% by the time of the 2030 census. I don't think the Supreme Court will be that picky any time soon, given the weakening of the VRA. I guess we'll see the Alabama decision, but if that's upheld this would be as well.

Ah, that's an improvement.
Yeah, I guess we'll see.

[kwabbit]

PA 2030 with 16 districts

Here is PA with 16 districts if it drops to that. Which is pretty borderline. SE PA + Lehigh Valley + South Central PA hold up well and NE PA and the rurals lose most of the lost seat.

[Biden his time]

You all may be interested in this thread

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=473206

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

You all may be interested in this thread

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=473206

This has been seen. Thanks for making it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

PA 2030 with 16 districts

Here is PA with 16 districts if it drops to that. Which is pretty borderline. SE PA + Lehigh Valley + South Central PA hold up well and NE PA and the rurals lose most of the lost seat.

Like your map.

What's weird about Pennsylvania is that the fastest growing part of the state overall is greater Phillydelphia/Septa, yet this region is prolly also most likely to lose a seat due to the current map "bacon-stripping" out the suburban districts from the 2010s map in the name of least change. The 2010s map really nicely nested 6 districts between Philly and the Collar Counties.

Tbf your map cuts both a rural PA seat and a Philly seat and creates a new exurban PA-06 which finally keeps Berks County whole.

[kwabbit]

PA 2030 with 16 districts

Here is PA with 16 districts if it drops to that. Which is pretty borderline. SE PA + Lehigh Valley + South Central PA hold up well and NE PA and the rurals lose most of the lost seat.

Like your map.

What's weird about Pennsylvania is that the fastest growing part of the state overall is greater Phillydelphia/Septa, yet this region is prolly also most likely to lose a seat due to the current map "bacon-stripping" out the suburban districts from the 2010s map in the name of least change. The 2010s map really nicely nested 6 districts between Philly and the Collar Counties.

Tbf your map cuts both a rural PA seat and a Philly seat and creates a new exurban PA-06 which finally keeps Berks County whole.

I hate the skinny Montgomery into Berks seat. I think the Fitz seat should always take NE Philly so the Montgomery seat doesn’t have to get even skinnier.

It was kind of frustrating that the Berks area was still weird even in 16 seats. It ruins mapping the state for me with 17 seats so I was hoping for a reprieve.