At what point will Dems get maxed out in Dane County?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Dane continues to produce bigger winning margins for Democrats every election cycle. Although Barnes lost statewide, he still outperformed Biden and received 77% of the vote in Dane County. Evers received 79% of the vote in Dane, the largest percentage a Democrat has ever received in Dane. Now that Dems are approaching 80% in Dane County, at what point do you think D's will be maxed out in that county?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I mean it’s physically impossible to get over 100%, and I actually think as Madison grows and becomes more suburban in nature, Ds % will hit a maximum of like 83% or so and start to decline. Right now Madison is very very heavily concentrated around the immediate downtown and suburbs fall off very fast. However, I expect that growth in Dane County should mean Ds raw vote net will continue increasing until growth starts to stall or reverse.

[Nyvin]

San Francisco has been steadily increasing over time too, and is currently around 85%, don't see any reason Dane can't go that high as well.

[Roll Roons]

Around 85% would be my guess. That seems to be the ceiling for both parties in most places.

[Torie]

All of these impossible speculative questions assume I presume that the current configuration of the partisan divide continues on all over the far horizon indefinitely. That might be a mistake.

[Hope For A New Era]

It's pretty well established that both parties have a floor at around 10% of the vote in most places, the exceptions being some parts of West Texas and the Plains and some minority-heavy urban centers. So, allowing for third-party vote and the fact that the county has a lot of rural land in it (even if it is the rare blue rural land), I'd say maybe 82-83%, with maybe 85% being the highest ever achieved in some big statewide D win.

[Adam Griffin]

Just some data on raw vote & population changes in Dane & Madison:

Dane 2004-2020 Change:

+110624 Total Population
================
+79069 Democratic Votes
-11575 Republican Votes
+70479 Total Votes

      Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +47337 Total Population
      ================
      +33622 Democratic Votes
      -11082 Republican Votes
      +23535 Total Votes

      Non-Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +63287 Total Population
      ================
      +45447 Democratic Votes
      -493 Republican Votes
      +46944 Total Votes


Madison 2004-2020 Change:

43% of Dane Pop Growth
================
43% of D Dane Vote Growth
96% of R Dane Vote Losses
33% of T Dane Vote Growth

Virtually all of the net Republican raw vote loss in Dane since 2004 has happened in Madison proper, while Democratic raw vote gains are proportionate when breaking the county down into "Madison vs Everything Else".

Non-Madison Dane is growing ever-so-slightly faster than the city in terms of population (Madison declined from 48.9% of the county in 2004 to 48.6% in 2020).

Even outside Madison, Republicans managed to see their raw vote total decline by 500 votes between 04-20 (from 56154 to 55661): this effectively means that area is holding steady in raw R vote, but that's over a time period where the total raw D vote increased by 47k (and pop increased by 63k).

All in all, pop growth versus vote-gain for Democrats between Madison & everything else is negligible in difference. This in my opinion points to continued Democratic gains virtually everywhere in the county (whether through true D growth or simply continued R losses, or - likely - both), because that is what has been happening over the past 15 years. If the best the GOP can do is almost maintain their raw vote totals in the hinterlands while Democratic raw vote continues to grow massively there - all the while, DEM raw vote follows the same trends in Madison while GOP raw vote continues collapsing there - Democrats aren't necessarily close at all to maxing out in terms of raw vote margin (percentage margin is a different story, but I'd wager something like 80-18 as a baseline within the next 10 years isn't unrealistic).

2004-2020 Madison Swing      D+20.47
2004-2020 Elsewhere Swing   D+20.86

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ One thing that is present in the above data but that I did not mention: between 2004-2020, non-Madison Dane saw its raw vote increase by an equivalent of 74% of its total population growth.

In Madison proper? That figure was only 50%. I think - even when accounting for factors such as age and citizenship differentials that may be present - this points to a large, currently-untapped bank of potential voters for the future. In most places, I wouldn't necessarily assume these types were as naturally Democratic as the current voter bloc, but I think a place like Madison could be the exception.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Just some data on raw vote & population changes in Dane & Madison:

Dane 2004-2020 Change:

+110624 Total Population
================
+79069 Democratic Votes
-11575 Republican Votes
+70479 Total Votes

      Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +47337 Total Population
      ================
      +33622 Democratic Votes
      -11082 Republican Votes
      +23535 Total Votes

      Non-Madison 2004-2020 Change:

      +63287 Total Population
      ================
      +45447 Democratic Votes
      -493 Republican Votes
      +46944 Total Votes


Madison 2004-2020 Change:

43% of Dane Pop Growth
================
43% of D Dane Vote Growth
96% of R Dane Vote Losses
33% of T Dane Vote Growth

Virtually all of the net Republican raw vote loss in Dane since 2004 has happened in Madison proper, while Democratic raw vote gains are proportionate when breaking the county down into "Madison vs Everything Else".

Non-Madison Dane is growing ever-so-slightly faster than the city in terms of population (Madison declined from 48.9% of the county in 2004 to 48.6% in 2020).

Even outside Madison, Republicans managed to see their raw vote total decline by 500 votes between 04-20 (from 56154 to 55661): this effectively means that area is holding steady in raw R vote, but that's over a time period where the total raw D vote increased by 47k (and pop increased by 63k).

All in all, pop growth versus vote-gain for Democrats between Madison & everything else is negligible in difference. This in my opinion points to continued Democratic gains virtually everywhere in the county (whether through true D growth or simply continued R losses, or - likely - both), because that is what has been happening over the past 15 years. If the best the GOP can do is almost maintain their raw vote totals in the hinterlands while Democratic raw vote continues to grow massively there - all the while, DEM raw vote follows the same trends in Madison while GOP raw vote continues collapsing there - Democrats aren't necessarily close at all to maxing out in terms of raw vote margin (percentage margin is a different story, but I'd wager something like 80-18 as a baseline within the next 10 years isn't unrealistic).

2004-2020 Madison Swing      D+20.47
2004-2020 Elsewhere Swing   D+20.86

This is a great analysis. Thank you!

[politicallefty]

I think the de facto Democrat in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race broke 81% in Dane County not that long ago. There is definitely room for Democrats to grow.

[walleye26]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

[It’s so Joever]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

If we are miraculously still winning WI in the 2030s, Dane growth will be probably one of the biggest reasons.

[walleye26]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

If we are miraculously still winning WI in the 2030s, Dane growth will be probably one of the biggest reasons.

Yeah, right now Dane County is about 570,000 people, but it is projected to be about 700,000 by 2040. If we assume that means 100K new voters and they break 70/30 D, that would mean 40,000+ Dem votes. Also, the projections that show 700k are conservative ones. Personally, with the rate of growth I’m seeing, I think closer to 740,000 is likely. The exurban counties are also growing too. Beaver Dam (Dodge) is growing steadily, Lake Mills (Jefferson), Baraboo (Sauk) are all working on pretty large developments right now. In Columbia County, where I like, Columbus is plotting a new neighborhood off Hwy 151, Poynette just agreed with a developer to add 470 homes by 2030, Portage just signed a developer agreement to add 250 apartment units and 47 single family homes. This doesn’t even include the current proposals I’m reading from Lodi, Arlington, Rio, and Fall River that are trying to build more (although those communities are off the main highways so it’s a bit harder to get attention).

In terms of future trends, I also wouldn’t underestimate Dem chances in the Fox Valley. The Packers are pouring in a crap load of money to build up massive condo and townhome developments around Lambeau, and the suburbs are growing rapidly too. De Pere is seeing a pretty strong leftward trend, and other wealthy suburbs like Kimberly are pretty competitive.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I would guess probably about 82-84%. I think that Dems don’t really grow in percentage from here, but will continue to increase raw vote margin. Evers added 16,000 more votes this year than 2018, and Michels decreased 7,000 compared to Walker. I think it’s realistic going forward to say that every four years Dems will net ~10,000 votes in midterms and ~20,000 in Prez races.

Part of this is because population is just booming all over Dane County. Every time I drive down Highway 151 or I39 I see more and more cranes building apartments. Even in the suburbs like Sun Prairie or Deforest houses are just sprouting up. It’s nuts.

If we are miraculously still winning WI in the 2030s, Dane growth will be probably one of the biggest reasons.

Yeah, right now Dane County is about 570,000 people, but it is projected to be about 700,000 by 2040. If we assume that means 100K new voters and they break 70/30 D, that would mean 40,000+ Dem votes. Also, the projections that show 700k are conservative ones. Personally, with the rate of growth I’m seeing, I think closer to 740,000 is likely. The exurban counties are also growing too. Beaver Dam (Dodge) is growing steadily, Lake Mills (Jefferson), Baraboo (Sauk) are all working on pretty large developments right now. In Columbia County, where I like, Columbus is plotting a new neighborhood off Hwy 151, Poynette just agreed with a developer to add 470 homes by 2030, Portage just signed a developer agreement to add 250 apartment units and 47 single family homes. This doesn’t even include the current proposals I’m reading from Lodi, Arlington, Rio, and Fall River that are trying to build more (although those communities are off the main highways so it’s a bit harder to get attention).

In terms of future trends, I also wouldn’t underestimate Dem chances in the Fox Valley. The Packers are pouring in a crap load of money to build up massive condo and townhome developments around Lambeau, and the suburbs are growing rapidly too. De Pere is seeing a pretty strong leftward trend, and other wealthy suburbs like Kimberly are pretty competitive.

Interesting take.

[walleye26]

How so?

[Scottholes 2.0]

How so?

I'm referring to your take on the Fox Valley region. For a long time, I have underestimated Dems' chances in this region because I have always viewed this area as a more working-class region, but it has been 10-15 years since I've visited this area, so I'm guessing things must have changed a lot since then?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Fox River Valley's layout by the way is kind of one of the largest sources of the Wisconsin Democrats' geography problem. If Green Bay, Appleton, and Oshkosh were all next to each other as an urban core the metro, there'd at least be some Democratic seats in that urban core even if the suburbs were all Republican. Instead they're spread out so the Democrats can only win an Assembly seat here and there.

[walleye26]

How so?

I'm referring to your take on the Fox Valley region. For a long time, I have underestimated Dems' chances in this region because I have always viewed this area as a more working-class region, but it has been 10-15 years since I've visited this area, so I'm guessing things must have changed a lot since then?

In a neutral environment, yes, it will lean R a bit. However, it’s growing pretty rapidly, and if you look at the suburbs of Green Bay in particular, there a glimmers for Dems. Obviously coalitions can change, but Evers did a lot better in Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago than just 4 years ago. Barnes also did much better than I would expect. De Pere in particular has been shifting quite left recently, but Bellevue is sliding left too. Brown’s rurals are very red, like Alabama margins, which is why it’s staying red as a county. Dems also have picked up a bit in places like Kimberly and Harrison. We’ll see if these trends continue or not though. Lots of money has been pouring into these places and a lot of young people are moving in.