2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Nyvin]

Was this drawn specifically to be a GOP gerrymander?

It was not, sadly. OC became sort of one when I tried to make an Asian plurality district there. Is the Sacramento Area one? DRA scores it a 95/100 on proportionality and Republicans are favored in 9/52 seats. They just won 11/53, so it doesn't seem too crazy.

My maps have always ended up with a GOP tilt when I try to make them fair because I like to keep cities whole if possible on COI grounds. So if medium sized cities like Sacramento are 'packed' then the effect is probably favorable to Republicans.

I drew it election data turned off per California law but then turned it on after the fact.

It's hard to not see that CA-43 district being intentionally drawn for Republicans.

[Nyvin]

Looking at the State Senate - Trump only won four districts in the state,  all but one of them in the north.   1, 8, and 16 are the rural inland districts that will be fine through redistricting to be safe R.   

SD-4 is basically the northern end of the Central Valley and actually does make for a really good COI, but it's getting pretty close and if SD-1 takes any of it's GOP turf it pretty much has to expand southward which might shift the margin left.

There are five other R held seats in SoCal (21, 23, 28, 36, 38).   36 has a lot of same area as CA-49 and Biden won it by 8.6%, and 21 is similar to CA-25 and Biden won it by 6.1%.   The other three were pretty much 50-50.

Seems like the likely outcome is for 36 and 21 to flip at some point and for 23 and 28 to be redrawn in a way that makes one more D and one more R (the GOP will be fine in 38).

This basically leaves the GOP with 6, maybe 7, seats in the State Senate, since really nothing held by D's looks favorable for the Republicans going forward.

[Nyvin]

FYI Abdullah, this is basically the only functional way to do Far Northern California: https://davesredistricting.org/join/bc21ff91-095c-4160-a357-faf53da60d8b

Thanks, I was rolling my eyes at the maps putting Mendocino and Humboldt in with the northeast district.

[Nyvin]

What would be Obernolte's district (former CA-8)?   The big San Bernardino  one?

[Nyvin]

Too bad Bera and Harder can't get safe seats when there's dem vote sinks right next door to them.

[Nyvin]

CA-3 is basically a new district, would LaMalfa or McClintock run in that?

If Thompson runs in CA-8 then Garamendi can run in CA-4.

I gotta say the San Diego/Orange County area makes me nervous, that's a lot of competitive seats, might be better just to make an R sink somewhere down there.

[Nyvin]

Terrible map for the Sacramento Area. Davis might be a bit of a stretch to include (as I mentioned a bit before, having West Sac is ok, but the Yolo Bypass makes it a bit iffy to include Davis with Sacramento

Where does Ami Bera run?

Away

What?  Why can't he run in 7?   Costa runs in 15, McNerney in 9, Matsui in 6, Bera in 7.  

Harder is the rep I don't really find a district for in the current draft map.  Unless I guess Costa actually does challenge Nunes?

[Nyvin]

Sara Jacobs is in trouble too, right

Either Sara Jacobs or Scott Peters,  they're both kinda squeezed out.  More of Scott Peters district was maintained than Jacob's though.

Jacobs could run against Issa, his district is more Dem now and Issa isn't popular.

Edit - Looking it over again,  50 is kinda Jacob's new district and 49 is Issa's, 44 is Calvert's.

[Nyvin]

Republicans are going to have a hard time keeping CA-3 later on.  Inyo, Mono, and Alpine counties all vote D already,  Truckee and Lake Tahoe areas are both solid D and most of the rest of the district is in Placer County that's trending D.

They'll win it in 2022 but after that it's probably anyone's game.