2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

MN-02
Harper Polling (R)

Craig (D, inc.) 45%
Kistner (R) 36%

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/07/29/fundraising-prowess-may-not-be-enough-for-gop-house-challenger-tyler-kistner/

That’s directly from the Kistner campaign. Ouch.

[VAR]

TX-22
Meeting Street Insights/Nehls internal

Nehls 44%
Kulkarni 32%
LeBlanc 5%
Undecided 19%

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CLF-TX-22-July-Survey-Memo.pdf

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

TX-22
Meeting Street Insights/Nehls internal

Nehls 44%
Kulkarni 32%
LeBlanc 5%
Undecided 19%

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CLF-TX-22-July-Survey-Memo.pdf

44% is a believable number.

[WD]

TX-22
Meeting Street Insights/Nehls internal

Nehls 44%
Kulkarni 32%
LeBlanc 5%
Undecided 19%

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CLF-TX-22-July-Survey-Memo.pdf

44% is a believable number.

You think the Republicans will only get around 44% here?

[Landslide Lyndon]

TX-22
Meeting Street Insights/Nehls internal

Nehls 44%
Kulkarni 32%
LeBlanc 5%
Undecided 19%

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/CLF-TX-22-July-Survey-Memo.pdf

44% is a believable number.

You think the Republicans will only get around 44% here?

What's certain is that Kulkarni will get much more than 32%. He got 46 two years ago against an uncontroversial incumbent.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Colby College poll of ME-02

Golden (D-inc.): 45%
Craft (R): 33%
Other: 5%

https://t.co/bb15uw1OpO?amp=1

I'm going to be eating some Crow in november, aren't I?

[Pollster]

Chris Armitage, a 28-year old Democrat challenging Cathy McMorris Rodgers in WA-05, has dropped out citing declining mental health and an accusation of misconduct. Armitage was running with the support of both Our Revolution/Brand New Congress/etc. as well as the local county Democratic parties.

His name will still be on ballots, which were mailed last week.

Only Dem left in the race is Dave Wilson, a longtime local community activist who lost a State House race 51/49 in 2018 in a seat that backed Trump 47/45. Wilson received 13% of the vote in the top-two primary for this seat in 2016 running as an independent, but ran his State House race and is running this race as a Democrat.

[wbrocks67]

MN-01 Victoria Research & Consulting/HMP (D internal)

Feehan (D) 48
Hagedorn (R-inc) 46

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MN-01_poll.pdf

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MN-01 Victoria Research & Consulting/HMP (D internal)

Feehan (D) 48
Hagedorn (R-inc) 46

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/MN-01_poll.pdf

Doubtful we can still win a district like this, but it's easier than MN_08

[VAR]

MI-02
Denno Research (D internal)

Huizenga 49%
Berghoef 32%
Undecided 19%

Senate:

James 40%
Peters 38%
Undecided 22%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TtEmS5LQ4hEV5fXu2iLOXvifesQKuAoR/view

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

[DaWN]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

[wbrocks67]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Also, they really had GA06 tossup this whole time Seriously?

[ON Progressive]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

[Person Man]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

[WD]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

Gimenez will come close but he won’t win in this political environment.

[DaWN]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15 district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

[Mr.Phips]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run.  

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15 district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

All DMP needs to do is make sure that a vote for Biden is a vote for her.  She should add Biden’s name to all of her signage and literature.  Basically run as part of his team.

[MT Treasurer]

Losing FL-26 would be even more embarrassing for Democrats than losing CA-25, and that says a lot. It’s not going to happen, though.

[VAR]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

[Mr.Phips]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

When Rubio was winning statewide by 8 points in a good Republican year.

[DaWN]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

[VAR]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

[Mr.Phips]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

If Rubio only tied statewide, I guarantee you that he would have lost this district.