2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Mr.Phips]

UT-04 partisan poll

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/7/16/21327383/ben-mcadams-financial-disclosure-burgess-owens-4th-district-race

Moore Information/Republican Congressional Leadership Fund
July 8-11, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Burgess Owens, R 43%
Ben McAdams, D 34%
John Molnar, L 5%
Jonia Broderick, UUP <0.5%
Don’t know 15%

I find this very hard to believe given the Presidential numbers we have been seeing out of Utah.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

UT-04 partisan poll

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/7/16/21327383/ben-mcadams-financial-disclosure-burgess-owens-4th-district-race

Moore Information/Republican Congressional Leadership Fund
July 8-11, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Burgess Owens, R 43%
Ben McAdams, D 34%
John Molnar, L 5%
Jonia Broderick, UUP <0.5%
Don’t know 15%

I find this very hard to believe given the Presidential numbers we have been seeing out of Utah.

If you mean the Y2 Analytics surveys, they have since started weighting directly by education instead of using a voter file and have released the results of this screen’s application to some of their surveys. It makes the results a few % more favourable to Trump.

That said, I agree.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The lack of polling leaked from this district suggests there’s very little room for an upset, but the difference between incumbent Stephen Lynch’s haul and his challenger’s is notable:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1283629786447970304

[Oryxslayer]

Wasserman's seat movements.

[Brittain33]

The lack of polling leaked from this district suggests there’s very little room for an upset, but the difference between incumbent Stephen Lynch’s haul and his challenger’s is notable:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1283629786447970304

Lynch’s views on gays were irritating 15-20 years ago but he’s either matured or shut up about it as his old “lane” in Massachusetts politics has gone from the widest one to a narrow one, one among many. He could be surprised some year but I don’t think this is the year or the challenger. Maybe after redistricting.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

UT-04 partisan poll

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/7/16/21327383/ben-mcadams-financial-disclosure-burgess-owens-4th-district-race

Moore Information/Republican Congressional Leadership Fund
July 8-11, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Burgess Owens, R 43%
Ben McAdams, D 34%
John Molnar, L 5%
Jonia Broderick, UUP <0.5%
Don’t know 15%

Isn't McAdams pretty popular in his district?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dem internal of KY-06 has Josh Hicks beating Andy Barr 50-48.

https://medium.com/@caroline_24867/inching-ahead-how-democratic-investment-could-put-josh-hicks-across-the-line-d901299eea07

[Gracile]

Wasserman's seat movements.

These new ratings have now taken CO-06, MN-03, and VA-10 off the board for all of the Big Three prognosticators (Cook, IE, Sabato). Honestly, it was a long time coming for all of these to be rated universally Safe.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dem internal of KY-06 has Josh Hicks beating Andy Barr 50-48.

https://medium.com/@caroline_24867/inching-ahead-how-democratic-investment-could-put-josh-hicks-across-the-line-d901299eea07

Bluegrass Voters Coalition (a progressive-sympathetic pollster but not contracted by Hicks' campaign in this case)
July 13, 2020
700 likely voters
MoE: 4%

With leaners:
Hicks (D) 50%
Barr (R) 48%
Harris (L) 2%
Undecided 11%

[NewYorkExpress]

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-20-races-move-towards-democrats

The new ratings:

AZ-02: Likely D to Solid D

CA-04: Solid R to Likely R

CA-39: Lean D to Likely D

CO-6: Likely D to Solid D

IN-5: Lean R to Tossup

KS-2: Likely R to Lean R

MN-1: Likely R to Lean R

MN- 3: Likely D to Solid D

NE-2: Lean R to Tossup

NC-8: Likely R to Lean R

NC-9 Solid R to Likely R

OH-1: Lean R to Tossup

OH-12: Solid R to Likely R

PA-8: Tossup to Lean D

TX-3: Solid R to Likely R

TX-6: Solid R to Likely R

TX-21: Lean R to Tossup

TX-25: Solid R to Likely R

VA-10: Likely D to Solid D

WA-3: Likely R to Lean R


Which ratings change stands out to you most?

[Upstater]

The rating changes in Texas are a sign of better things to come for Texas Democrats.

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

LMAO

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...

LMAO

Lighting money on fire is a bipartisan affair, so don't laugh too hard. However, it does appear that McGrath's millions may end up bearing some fruit if KY06 ends up returning to it's 2018 position on the battlefield via down-ballot boosts.

[IAMCANADIAN]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...
LMAO

Why don't these Republican donors donate to Republicans?

[Storr]

The rating changes in Texas are a sign of better things to come for Texas Democrats.

Yeah, that's what stands out to me too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The House is gonna stay the same and the Senate is probably gonna be tied

[Epaminondas]

They now have 10 GOP-held seats in Texas outside of Safe GOP: a 2020 Biden landslide could make the house 23-13 for the Dems

Even for the morally-unmoored GOP that would probably be at challenge to gerrymander in 2022.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The House is gonna stay the same and the Senate is probably gonna be tied

Dems are going to go over 250 seats this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The House is gonna stay the same and the Senate is probably gonna be tied

Dems are going to go over 250 seats this year.

No they wont, the polls are gonna get closer that's why Cook and Sabato still have Biden at 268 to 279 Electoral votes and Daines and Sullivan are winning.

We are looking at RV not LV. Voters are gonna get 600 a week forever

[morgieb]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1283822699408576512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...
LMAO

Lighting money on fire is a bipartisan affair, so don't laugh too hard. However, it does appear that McGrath's millions may end up bearing some fruit if KY06 ends up returning to it's 2018 position on the battlefield via down-ballot boosts.

I know, but it feels like the first three are getting more money than the people that actually have a shot. Say what you will at McGrath, but she's pretty much the only really comparable one in this circumstance and most of the other high earners are people who can win.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The House is gonna stay the same and the Senate is probably gonna be tied

Dems are going to go over 250 seats this year.

No they wont, the polls are gonna get closer that's why Cook and Sabato still have Biden at 268 to 279 Electoral votes and Daines and Sullivan are winning.

We are looking at RV not LV. Voters are gonna get 600 a week forever

Yes they will, the polls are gonna get the same that's why Inside Elections already has Biden at 319 Electoral votes and Daines and Ernst are tossups.

We are looking at RV but LV is the same. Voters are gonna get 600 a week screwed forever

[morgieb]

They now have 10 GOP-held seats in Texas outside of Safe GOP: a 2020 Biden landslide could make the house 23-13 for the Dems

Even for the morally-unmoored GOP that would probably be at challenge to gerrymander in 2022.

I mean if that was to happen the Texas State House would be long gone so.....

[xavier110]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I havent heard anything about CA 25, but if Garcia survived,  he is gone in redistricting Cali, after gaining EC votes will lose an EC vote in 2022.

Bad news, due to fact, if Rs rebound in 2022, all the new seats are in TX, FL and GA where Rs have the Govs and legislators

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

The most bang for your bucks might be Greenfield in Iowa-SEN.