2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Unironically Kris Kobach. Him winning the primary would boost Democrats to tossup in that seat

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Texas challengers will need as much money as they can get.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

I'd look into Texas. Either the handful of US House races that are quickly shifting from Solid/Likely R status or the Beto/Republican State House races that may decide control of the chamber

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Unironically Kris Kobach. Him winning the primary would boost Democrats to tossup in that seat

Much better to donate to the groups trying to ratf*** the primary than to donate to the guy himself.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

I'd look into Texas. Either the handful of US House races that are quickly shifting from Solid/Likely R status or the Beto/Republican State House races that may decide control of the chamber

This, competitive Texas State House races are your best bet.  Flipping it would be huge for redistricting and almost certainly scare TX Republicans into either overreaching with a complete dummymander or passing a light-red mild gerrymander.  Either way, it’d be a big win for us.

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Unironically Kris Kobach. Him winning the primary would boost Democrats to tossup in that seat

This is a terrible idea, if you’re gonna donate in this race then wait until after the Republican primary.  If Kobach wins and Bollier has a shot 1-2 weeks after Labor Day AND is wanting for money, then donating to her campaign might make sense.  Donating to Kobach is crazy though, with all due respect.

[lfromnj]

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

I'd look into Texas. Either the handful of US House races that are quickly shifting from Solid/Likely R status or the Beto/Republican State House races that may decide control of the chamber

This, competitive Texas State House races are your best bet.  Flipping it would be huge for redistricting and almost certainly scare TX Republicans into either overreaching with a complete dummymander or passing a light-red mild gerrymander.  Either way, it’d be a big win for us.

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread but help needed here!

I’m in the fortunate position where I have some extra cash each month that I’d like to donate to Democratic candidates. Can anyone point me to challengers/incumbents who would most benefit from some more donations? Whether it’s their expensive media market or that their challenger is also raising good money.

I have donated to Tipirneni in AZ06 since I’ll be moving to her district before the election. I know folks like Mark Kelly and Elissa Slotkin don’t need my $100!

Unironically Kris Kobach. Him winning the primary would boost Democrats to tossup in that seat

This is a terrible idea, if you’re gonna donate in this race then wait until after the Republican primary.  If Kobach wins and Bollier has a shot 1-2 weeks after Labor Day AND is wanting for money, then donating to her campaign might make sense.  Donating to Kobach is crazy though, with all due respect.

For 2022 it would likely be a GOP tilting court map if Democrats can hold together, Think decisions like how PA01 went from Trump +2 to Clinton +2.

[Gracile]

VA-02 Tarrance Group/CLF Poll (R):

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/VA-02-July-Survey-Results6.pdf

Elaine Luria (D-inc) 48%
Scott Taylor (R) 48%

[Mr.Phips]

VA-02 Tarrance Group/CLF Poll (R):

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/VA-02-July-Survey-Results6.pdf

Elaine Luria (D-inc) 48%
Scott Taylor (R) 48%

Given the Presidential numbers in Virginia, I highly doubt this. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

[S019]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

Leading only by 1 in this seat in his own internal is awful news for LaTurner, and makes me think this is winnable for Democrats even if Watkins loses renomination

[ON Progressive]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

Why would he release this poll showing him only up 1 in a district Trump carried by 19 points?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

This is a devastating poll for the Republicans. Trump won this district by 19 points in 2016.

[n1240]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

Why would he release this poll showing him only up 1 in a district Trump carried by 19 points?

Looks like it was used as comparison vs Watkins performance, who trails by 12 points in a general election matchup.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200720_KS.pdf

[WD]

That's ...bizarre.

https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1285300600591323136

Why would he release this poll showing him only up 1 in a district Trump carried by 19 points?

Looks like it was used as comparison vs Watkins performance, who trails by 12 points in a general election matchup.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200720_KS.pdf

YIKES

[wbrocks67]

Funny how none of these GOP internals have any prez #s

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL.
Another "Safe R without awful candidate" take bites the dust.
This should pit "KS is Safe R" to bed

[VAR]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

[Mr.Phips]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

[wbrocks67]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

and still no prez #s...

[Person Man]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

and still no prez #s...

It’s a GOP internal right?

[wbrocks67]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

It's more revealing that this is the only Trump approval number they released; no other issues, and no general job approval.

and still no prez #s...

It’s a GOP internal right?

Yep, nearly all the GOP internals have provided non prez #s. The only one I've seen that did was the PA-01 one, which had a horrific number for Trump

[Gracile]

Essentially:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1285598371718340608

It's their way of telling donors that some of these House districts aren't lost causes.

[Pollster]

Note that the KS-02 poll was landline only.

That being said, de la Isla will be extremely underrated this entire cycle. Her mayoral win in Topeka (a right-leaning city) was extremely impressive. She possesses a lot of strengths that Paul Davis (who I like a lot) did not, and Paul largely lost because a left-leaning independent candidate did fairly well.

Helps that Bollier probably does well here, regardless of her opponent.

[VAR]

IA-03
Tarrance Group/R internal
March 10-12, 2020
400 RV

Axne 48%
Young 48%
Undecided 4%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000