CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Yellowhammer]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

I guess quitting Atlas & never coming back was too good to be true.

I was begged to come back so I did, reluctantly

[KaiserDave]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

I guess quitting Atlas & never coming back was too good to be true.

I was begged to come back so I did, reluctantly

Consider this us begging you to leave

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-23/recall-newsom-effort-qanon-antivaxxer-extremist-ties

LA Times: Recall Newsom effort has ties to far-right movements, including QAnon and virus skeptics

As the pandemic continues to shutter businesses, close schools and upend lives in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has become a target of angry frustration for some, driving a grassroots effort to recall him from office. What once started as a pipe dream is beginning to look like a political threat for the Democratic governor.

But a Times investigation found that recall campaign leaders, seeking to capitalize on the darkening public mood, allied with radical and extreme elements early on to help collect signatures. Those included groups promoting distrust of government, science and medicine; peddlers of QAnon doomsday conspiracies; “patriots” readying for battle and one organization allied with the far-right extremist group, the Proud Boys.

The recall gave those fringe factions a higher profile and a shared villain. They helped energize the campaign with large and often inflammatory rallies over masks, in support of Trump and against the election they falsely say was stolen from the former president — ripe venues to harvest petition signatures.

Many supporters of the recall are not extremists and may not be aware of the far-right groups involved with the effort. But with the violent insurgency at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, organizers are grappling with the consequences of their alliances. They now insist the extremists don’t represent the values of the recall movement but continue to associate with them, amid a national debate about how far is too far when it comes to winning in politics.

“Do we have to denounce everybody that is involved to move it forward?” the official proponent of the recall drive, a retired sheriff’s sergeant from Yolo County named Orrin Heatlie, asked The Times. “Or do we just move forward and ignore those other elements?”[...]

We shouldn't be surprised However, this was the quote I wanted to focus on:

[Randy] Economy said more than 1.2 million Californians have signed the petition to remove Newsom. As of Jan. 6, state elections officials said 723,783 signatures have been turned in by the recall campaign and of those, 485,650 have been verified.

According to Ballotpedia & the CA Secretary of State websites, the petition drive started on June 10.

So here's what we've got in the last 7 months. The last update was January 6:

Valid signatures needed for recall: 1,495,709
Signatures self-reported by the petitioners: 1,200,000+
Signatures officially turned in: 723,783
Verified signatures: 485,650
Valid signatures: 410,087
Valid/Verified signature rate: 84.4%

Signatures turned in per month: 103,398
Verified signatures per month: 69,379
Valid signatures per month: 58,583

They have a month and a half left on the deadline (March 17). I'll make another update the next time the CA Secretary of State does one, but something tells me there won't be a recall question anytime soon.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1353170946236944386?s=19

Seems like the SOS numbers aren't actually relevant. This doesn't change you're likely right though.

[Donerail]

The recall might be more likely than not now. The self-reported petition numbers have been jumping dramatically over the last few weeks. Look at how people are behaving — there's a ton of big checks flowing into the recall campaign & Gavin's people are pushing these kinds of stories in the LA Times. Not the acts of people, on either side, who think this is unlikely to succeed. It'll be close, but if they keep the validity rate that high, it'll happen.

[lfromnj]

A recall is kinda dumb but I also want to see it just for some good meme drama from the election.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Pour one out for the scantron machines if we have to go through another statewide recall...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Pour one out for the scantron machines if we have to go through another statewide recall...
/snip

Cruz Bustamante.

Now that's a name I've not heard in a long long time.

[Mike Thick]

The recall might be more likely than not now. The self-reported petition numbers have been jumping dramatically over the last few weeks. Look at how people are behaving — there's a ton of big checks flowing into the recall campaign & Gavin's people are pushing these kinds of stories in the LA Times. Not the acts of people, on either side, who think this is unlikely to succeed. It'll be close, but if they keep the validity rate that high, it'll happen.

This is what I've been hearing as well. Not sure if I entirely believe it yet.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

[One Term Floridian]

Galvin Newsom promised a stimulus of 600 before the recall vote, but nothing passed, he is a typical Politician

Peak Nuisance Newsome

[Mike Thick]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

[President Johnson]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Arnold pushed for that? It was passed two years after he left office. Anyway, I agree that the jungle primary is a very flawed system regardless of a state's partisan lean. It should go back to (open) primaries in each party. And the recall should be abolished as well. Governors are supposed to be elected for a four year term and not be out campaigning all the time. For serious legal issues, impeachment would be the way to go.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Can’t do that according to SCOTUS. CA had mandated open primaries for a few years in the late 90s, but this was struck down as infringing on the parties’ rights to free association (or lack thereof). See California Democratic Party v. Jones.

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

Plot Twist, this makes it easier to get the petitions finished and he the ballots succeed anyway.

[brucejoel99]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Arnold pushed for that? It was passed two years after he left office.

It took effect 2 years after he left office, but it was passed in his final year, & he did publicly back it.

[brucejoel99]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Can’t do that according to SCOTUS. CA had mandated open primaries for a few years in the late 90s, but this was struck down as infringing on the parties’ rights to free association (or lack thereof). See California Democratic Party v. Jones.

That case didn't concern open primaries, in which the voter is restricted to voting for the candidates of only one party for all races on the ballot even though they're not required to declare party affiliation; it concerned blanket primaries, in which each voter's ballot lists every candidate regardless of party affiliation, allows the voter to choose freely among them, & the candidate of each party who wins the most votes is that party's nominee for the general election. In the blanket primary which SCOTUS ruled unconstitutional, the voter was given a ballot listing all candidates of all parties & was free to cross party lines from one race to the next. That's not the case in the regular type of open primary that OSR is suggesting.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

[Mike Thick]

I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

I understand why you would think this. As the cash flows in and the pool the circulators gather signatures from gets bigger, validity rates will probably go down somewhat. But this is going to be very close, and people on both sides are acting like it will be close

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

Do you mean the Recall or Newsom doing lockdowns?

[politics_king]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

Do you mean the Recall or Newsom doing lockdowns?

Newsom is a total idiot. He isn't liked by either side right now, he'll get re-called. Not sure who would take over but I'd assume a Democrat, ideally a Progressive one but most likely will be another establishment tool.

[Mike Thick]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

Do you mean the Recall or Newsom doing lockdowns?

I'm referring to Newsom's lockdowns.

To be clear, I don't think restrictions are necessarily bad. I think applying them selectively and lifting and lowering them for blatantly political reasons is bad.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

I understand why you would think this. As the cash flows in and the pool the circulators gather signatures from gets bigger, validity rates will probably go down somewhat. But this is going to be very close, and people on both sides are acting like it will be close

I certainly think so. This thing is gonna go down to the wire and I wouldn't be surprised if it clears the hurdle or not.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

Do you mean the Recall or Newsom doing lockdowns?

Newsom is a total idiot. He isn't liked by either side right now, he'll get re-called. Not sure who would take over but I'd assume a Democrat, ideally a Progressive one but most likely will be another establishment tool.

What evidence? There hasn't been any approval ratings this month and his most recent one (PPIC from early December) has him at 60/40 and the same +20 margin he's been at for almost the entire year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom said we were gonna get 600 and nothing has passed

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

I understand why you would think this. As the cash flows in and the pool the circulators gather signatures from gets bigger, validity rates will probably go down somewhat. But this is going to be very close, and people on both sides are acting like it will be close

Man I hope you're right. Imagine us getting anyone else but Gavin. I just don't see us getting to the 2 million that's likely needed for success.