CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[tosk]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

chamath was a dem donor, not sure if he's running as a dem or independent

[Donerail]

Several of these 1 million signatures will likely be kicked out, so they need more like 2 million before March have enough valid ones. That's not too likely.

Current valid rate is very high (~85%), if they keep that clip up they'll only need in the 1.7-1.8 range. Shouldn't be too difficult.

[Mike Thick]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

[brucejoel99]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

Isn't a recall being triggered proof of vulnerability in & of itself? Because I couldn't imagine a recall being triggered yet no serious Democrats running at all on the assumption that "hey, not like it looks all that likely, but if this recall ends up f**king Newsom over, I might as well try & stand to benefit."

[Donerail]

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

Isn't a recall being triggered proof of vulnerability in & of itself? Because I couldn't imagine a recall being triggered yet no serious Democrats running at all on the assumption that "hey, not like it looks all that likely, but if this recall ends up f**king Newsom over, I might as well try & stand to benefit."

If the first few polls have him leading big — say 43-57 to retain — there will be a significant internal push to concentrate the party's efforts on defeating the recall rather than splitting their fundraising & messaging to both defeat the recall and win the election. "No to recall, yes to Bustamante" was not a successful slogan for either the anti-recall campaign or Bustamante.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

Something that I didn’t see mentioned there... Can Newsom run in the race to replace him?

I’d laugh so hard if a majority voted to recall, but a plurality voted for Newsom and he thus stayed in office.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'll laugh so hard if Republicans spend all this time & energy getting rid of Newsom, but the voters pick someone like Ro Khanna or Ted Lieu as his replacement.

Again, I'm very fascinated by the conflicting messages that may come from this. Who'd win out more, the anti-vax Republicans upset at how far the lockdowns have gone or the pro-vax Democrats upset at how soft the lockdowns have gone?

Either way, 2022 is gonna be a very interesting gubernatorial primary if Newsom is recalled. Couldn't he just run again months later? There's been plenty of council members down here who were recalled and won their seats back 1-2 years later.

And yes, I'm also perplexed at why they're doing this now instead of waiting for the 2022 elections. I'll quote The Nooner in saying that this is like "evaluating a general's performance at the darkest days of a war that is won".

[President Johnson]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

I'm a little perplexed as well at how Newsom is getting dragged about compared to other states & Governors.

The only reasons I can come up with is the rather lax recall procedures & CA Republicans eagerness to go the recall route as of late.

Only 20-25% of California Trump voters are needed to trigger a statewide recall. I'm a little concerned this will be the norm for every Democratic Governor going forward.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

Yeah Jerry was great. Gavin is no Jerry.

The issue with Newsom isn't what he's done (pandemic mismanagement and general corruption aside); it's what he hasn't done. I love California dearly but we have massive problems--all of which need to be addressed with landmark legislation like yesterday.

You're right about cost of living--but that isn't a fact of life; it's a product of deliberate choices the state has made. It wasn't always like this and it doesn't have to be this way going forward. We need zoning reform, infrastructure, improvements to K-12 education and our graduation rate, something done about homelessness, something done about the brutal social immobility faced by young Californians, something done about our increasingly unbearable taxes and regulations, HSR finished already, the Delta Tunnels, something done about insane local control, and more. And yet, Gavin hasn't bothered to tackle a single issue. It's like he doesn't even care about improving our state. I have no idea what he does all day because it sure as hell isn't working with the legislature on actually fixing sh!t.

I mean, c'mon, California is supposed to be the culmination of the American dream but we shrunk as a state last year. And yet, Gavin does nothing.

(And considering his tenure as Mayor of SF, this could be foreseen from a mile away.)

[Oryxslayer]

Only 20-25% of California Trump voters are needed to trigger a statewide recall. I'm a little concerned this will be the norm for every Democratic Governor going forward.

I have brought it up a few times before, but this recall effort seems to be on an inevitable trajectory towards Democrats using the super-majorities to reform the whole recall system...which in the long term seems harmful to CA Republicans given what Ling Ling Chiang has shown to be possible in OC. The Dems will use the legislature to propose amendments that significantly raise to the threshold for potential recalls, or just scrap them entirely. Then they run a campaign that frames this years efforts as another authoritarian trick of the GOP's extremist caucus, trying to undo the legitimate will of the voters.

[Suburbia]

Newsom will win a second term, but it will be by 10-15 points.

And yes, CA will elect another Republican governor one day.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

And yes, CA will elect another Republican governor one day.

And WY will elect another Democrat governor one day.

Not that bold of a take to make.

[AndyHogan14]

I would change two things to the recall process: 1) I would make the number of signatures required higher, it's comically low as it sits and 2) make it so the Lieutenant Governor takes over if the recall passes. We vote for a Lt. Governor and her only job is to sit around and wait for the governor to die/resign/be removed via impeachment so why is it any different for a recall? It is ridiculous that someone could become governor with a plurality of 20-30% (or less!) if the vote is split and we have (at least in theory) a governor-in-waiting.

[tosk]

I would change two things to the recall process: 1) I would make the number of signatures required higher, it's comically low as it sits and 2) make it so the Lieutenant Governor takes over if the recall passes. We vote for a Lt. Governor and her only job is to sit around and wait for the governor to die/resign/be removed via impeachment so why is it any different for a recall? It is ridiculous that someone could become governor with a plurality of 20-30% (or less!) if the vote is split and we have (at least in theory) a governor-in-waiting.

I'm glad republicans might benefit greatly from this recall, but you're right that the system is weird and bad. Don't recalls usually mean the incumbent gets called back for an early election? not sure why it's different in California. if they want to be special I think your system makes more sense.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

His motto when running for Governor was “Courage for a Change.” The last time he did something courageous was allowing gay marriage when he was mayor of SF.

I mean, I’d still vote for him and against a recall, but I wouldn’t support him in a primary for President.

I mean, how brave is that in a city where 16% of the population is gay?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

Yeah Jerry was great. Gavin is no Jerry.

-snip-

A better statement never has been said.

[Mr. Smith]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

His motto when running for Governor was “Courage for a Change.” The last time he did something courageous was allowing gay marriage when he was mayor of SF.

I mean, I’d still vote for him and against a recall, but I wouldn’t support him in a primary for President.

HealthySF was was quite courageous.

No idea why there hasn't been initiative to set that kind of thing up elsewhere.

[AndyHogan14]

I would change two things to the recall process: 1) I would make the number of signatures required higher, it's comically low as it sits and 2) make it so the Lieutenant Governor takes over if the recall passes. We vote for a Lt. Governor and her only job is to sit around and wait for the governor to die/resign/be removed via impeachment so why is it any different for a recall? It is ridiculous that someone could become governor with a plurality of 20-30% (or less!) if the vote is split and we have (at least in theory) a governor-in-waiting.

I'm glad republicans might benefit greatly from this recall, but you're right that the system is weird and bad. Don't recalls usually mean the incumbent gets called back for an early election? not sure why it's different in California. if they want to be special I think your system makes more sense.

There's an election in which the question for recalling Newsom is put to a simple yes or no. If "yes" wins (as it did with Gray Davis), then whichever candidate gets the most votes (just a plurality is needed) becomes governor. Schwarzenegger got 48.6% of the vote in 2003, but because there were 135 candidates (no primaries), it is VERY possible that he (or someone else) could have won with a very small plurality.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

Though it'd probably be simpler to have a top-two runoff within 90 days with the Lt. Gov presiding until then.

Either way, Dems should pass recall reforms within a year. It's ridiculous that they didn't think to update it after Prop 14 passed.

[Mike Thick]

I don’t see either Republican totally breaking away from the other, frankly. But I’ve been surprised before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Eventhough Newsom is unpopular, D's are likely to win and knock off 2 Rs in Reappointment, McCarthy is very unpopular and it won't be a repeat of 2020.

Rs will lose a seat in Reappointment and Garcia probably loses

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

PPIC
January 21-31 (Last poll: November 4-23)
1,703 California residents (English & Spanish)

Newsom Job Approval

All Adults
Approve:  54%  (-4)
Disapprove:  36%  (-4)
N/A:  10%  (+9)

Likely Voters
Approve:  52%  (-7)
Disapprove:  43%  (+3)
N/A:  5%  (+4)

Basically, his approvals have fallen back down to his pre-COVID levels. PPIC's survey in early January 2020 had him 51-34 among all adults & 49-42 among likely voters.

And if you wanna compare recall to recall (despite the obvious differences in the electorate), Davis' PPIC approvals in February 2003 were 33-60 among adults & 24-72 among likely voters.


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

PPIC
January 21-31 (Last poll: November 4-23)
1,703 California residents (English & Spanish)

Newsom Job Approval

All Adults
Approve:  54%  (-4)
Disapprove:  36%  (-4)
N/A:  10%  (+9)

Likely Voters
Approve:  52%  (-7)
Disapprove:  43%  (+3)
N/A:  5%  (+4)

Basically, his approvals have fallen back down to his pre-COVID levels. PPIC's survey in early January 2020 had him 51-34 among all adults & 49-42 among likely voters.


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

In the Berkeley poll aren't his  approvals below pre covid levels? Also, I'd rather trust the poll with 10 times the number of takers, that was still conducted over the same period.