CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[kwabbit]

I really hope the GOP can coalesce around Faulconer if the recall vote is yes. Not that he would be likely to win but Newsom could get a scare in this recall. I don’t think it’s gonna be a 60/40 no blowout. I’m expecting a 10ish no victory tbh.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Grenell is in.

https://twitter.com/jeremybwhite/status/1360381761012658178?s=21

I hope he losses massively. He’s a disgrace to our community

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are wasting so much money on a state that went 63/37 to Newsom

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

[President Johnson]

Grenell? God help us. I'm glad this moron is out of Germany, he was a disaster as ambassador.

[Sir Mohamed]

A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

Tom Bradley lost both the 1982 and 1986 gubernatorial elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are losing seats in CA 25, Rs aren't favored to win in Cali. Newsom would have avoided the recall if he would have given us a 600 tax credit on our taxes like Fed Income Taxes. He said so, but nothing happened.

Cali, HI, FL, OH food prices are soaring, we need that stimulus checks

[brucejoel99]

A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

Off the top of my head, CA hasn't seen many off-year statewide elections taking place just a year prior to the regularly scheduled statewide election (that is, like if the 2003 recall had happened in 2001, followed by the regular election in 2002), so he'd certainly be one of the firsts, if not the first.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

Tom Bradley lost both the 1982 and 1986 gubernatorial elections.

"2 statewide elections 2 years in a row"

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

Ehh, there's a bit of a weird thing going on. Because the campaign is removing all the junk signatures on their own , they have two numbers: the number of sigs they collected and the num they independently verified. This is why the signature verification rate has been unusually high right now, cause they have been removing all the obvious fakes/mistakes and the state only has to ensure its a real person.

Essentially we wait until the state verifies it, though they likely will hit it before the deadline in a few moths.

Don't they only have until mid March?

[Oryxslayer]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

Ehh, there's a bit of a weird thing going on. Because the campaign is removing all the junk signatures on their own , they have two numbers: the number of sigs they collected and the num they independently verified. This is why the signature verification rate has been unusually high right now, cause they have been removing all the obvious fakes/mistakes and the state only has to ensure its a real person.

Essentially we wait until the state verifies it, though they likely will hit it before the deadline in a few moths.

Don't they only have until mid March?

Your probably right, I just googled the ballot petition deadlines and usually its June/July.

[Mike Thick]

Trump is considering getting involved in the recall effort.

Presumably he would endorse Grenell. Would probably guarantee Newsom surviving and permanuke Faulconer's career at the same time.

[DrScholl]

No is guaranteed to prevail the minute that Trump gets involved.

[I’m not Stu]

What are the odds of Newsom being recalled and losing to another Democrat?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The last thing the Recall campaign should want is to turn it into a Biden/Trump proxy election. Yet it's obvious that that's the direction it's headed (Even if Trump doesn't get involved).

And that's not even getting into the plausible (Perhaps likely?) scenario that physical learning will be expanded, economic hardship won't be as bad as projected & most Californians can easily get vaccinated by the time of the recall.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, I can't see the recall succeeding if the CA GOP can't get their act together. They've been their own worst enemy for around/over a decade & this will be the biggest example of that:

GOP infighting in post-Trump era threatens California recall

LOS ANGELES (AP) — California Republicans eager to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom could see their chances eroded by longstanding friction between the party’s conservative and moderate wings, which only has intensified in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s presidency.

The rift has been on open display in the gubernatorial candidacy of former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a Republican centrist who has been endorsed by legislative leaders while being attacked as “liberal” by conservatives in his home county.

The head of the state Republican Party, Jessica Millan Patterson, is being challenged at a GOP convention this weekend by longtime conservative activist Steve Frank, who says the state party is attempting to silence conservative voices.

The vote on party leadership will come as Republicans nationally debate the way forward following Trump’s defeat in November and his role in provoking a deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

“This is California’s version of the national battle for the soul and the future of the Republican Party,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego.

While Trump lost California by more than 5 million votes last November, the state GOP has been emboldened by the prospect of a recall election aimed at Newsom, after picking off four congressional seats from Democrats. But “just when the Republican Party in California is showing signs of life, it’s deciding to cannibalize itself,” Kousser added.

Even before the convention began, there were signs of trouble.

A proposed rule change that would have allowed the party’s executive committee of about 100 people to endorse a recall candidate, or hand the decision to an even smaller group, rather than the full delegation of about 1,400 members was withdrawn after being criticized as a power grab.

Patterson, who asked the sponsor to withdraw the rule change, said in a letter to delegates that while the proposal was well-intentioned it was “dividing us at a time when nothing is more important than being unified.”

With a potential recall election approaching, the GOP needs a “a strong, unified Republican vision,“ she wrote.

But Frank, her rival to lead the party, said the now-withdrawn proposal showed Patterson “was literally trying to shove down our throats her choice for governor, and that’s just wrong.”
[..]

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-san-diego-kevin-faulconer-california-gavin-newsom-342646949c99a2e1a06dcab46f2fa5f2

[President Johnson]

Trump is considering getting involved in the recall effort.

Presumably he would endorse Grenell. Would probably guarantee Newsom surviving and permanuke Faulconer's career at the same time.

Lmao, Donald Trump, the most popular man in the state of California.

[Torrain]

Trump is considering getting involved in the recall effort.

Presumably he would endorse Grenell. Would probably guarantee Newsom surviving and permanuke Faulconer's career at the same time.

Lmao, Donald Trump, the most popular man in the state of California.

Aye. In some ways it could be a good thing. If Trump's first action after leaving office is tanking what's left of the CA GOP, it could help blunt his grip over the party. Surely, he can only lose so many elections for them before the hero-worship starts to lessen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares what Trump thinks, he didn't solve the homeless crisis they continue to allow amnesty to illegals and section 8 vouchers go to Asians and Latinos while homeless are AA.

Section 8 was part of the Feds and D's and Rs did this

Newsom will win

Should Ds expand Majority which Rs call socialism, we get Reparations, but it's not socialisic to give Athletes money from Jerry Jones oil revenue and they get giant tax cuts

That's why actors are outspoken than athletes on Campaign Finance Reform

[I’m not Stu]

Will the gubernatorial runoff more likely be D vs R or D vs D?

[Sir Mohamed]

Will the gubernatorial runoff more likely be D vs R or D vs D?

In 2022? I think Newsom faces a GOPer in the November election, but I'm not convinced yet that it will be Faulconer. I think he will come in a close 3rd in the jungle primary next to a more right-wing GOPer like Cox or Grenell. If a serious Dem jumps in, it's a tossup between Newsom vs. D or Newsom vs. R and depends on whether a single GOPer can get to 2nd place by consolidating the 30-35% of the R electorate. With a 2nd Dem, the GOP can hardly afford to split their votes in the jungle primary.

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

What are the odds of Newsom being recalled and losing to another Democrat?

Been thinking about this a lot and I think it’s very slim.

If the election was in May, you would have Democrats jumping in because they just need to convince around 20-25% of Dem voters to vote for them (and recall Newsom). With polling showing that 30% of Democrats are unsatisfied with Newsom, that’s possible and ambitious Dems would explore it.

But the election is in late 2021. You can assume that we will be in a better spot with COVID than we are now. Dems won’t jump into a race where Newsom returns to normally high approvals with Dems. Convincing people to recall him at that time will be tough.

So, I think it’s very unlikely because I don’t think a larger-named Democrat will jump in. It’s too risky when the election is so far away from the anger.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are wasting so much money in recalling effort, in a Solid D state and all the Rs have no relationship like Arnie had with Latinos, they are just taking money away from House races they need to win

Newsom will win, we have a state Senator race and Ds are gonna win a landslide. Newsom, once he start campaigning will be unbeatable.

He also is giving out more Stimulus in Food stamps and 600 checks are soon mailed out

[President Johnson]

Really looks like the recall happens. A waste of time.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1363908691582418946

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Feels like the last month has just been prolonged anticipation until the inevitable recall ends up inevitably happening.