CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[If my soul was made of stone]

It's the GOP's wet dream! Safe D -> Safe D

[Sir Mohamed]

Hot take: Faulconer will finish 3rd in the jungle primary behind Newsom and some crazy nutjob, who will go on the represent the GOP in the GE. Either way, Newsom will secure a 2nd term easily.

[Mike Thick]

FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

[tosk]

FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

[Хahar 🤔]

This comes as a surprise to me, because it suggests that Faulconer thinks that he can win, or at least that making an attempt would be worth his while. That's not to say that he has an actual chance, but it will at least lead me to adjust my priors regarding the state of the race.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Oh, and reminder that the only long-term effect of a recall would be the Dem super-majorities and Democratic voters opting to scrap the recall provisions. It would be laid bare as a tool for the GOP to try and keep forcing for the outcome they and not the majority of CA voters want, so the voters would happily do away with it in the name of preserving the popular mandate.

I'm still peeved about Josh Newman's recall.

Anyway, it'll be "fun" watching the 'CA GOP Comeback!!!' takes blossom when Faulconer loses by 19% instead of Cox's 24%. That's if someone from the Travis Allen-wing doesn't steal the GOP thunder in the primary

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, I'm not sure something like this endears Faulconer to the 60ish percent of voters who still give positive marks to Newsom's job approval (Even after the state orders and dinner snafu).


LA Times: Ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is considering run for governor, signs petition to oust Newsom

[...]Faulconer said on Facebook and Twitter around 10:30 a.m. Saturday that he signed the recall effort because jobs are leaving the state, homelessness has increased and the state unemployment office's difficulty in issuing checks during the COVID-19 crisis.

Efforts to reach the governor’s office Saturday afternoon for comment were unsuccessful.

“Every Californian fed up with the governor’s hypocrisy and failures should sign the recall petition,” Faulconer wrote. “Either through a recall or a regular election, it’s time to start holding the governor accountable.”

Newsom gets mostly high marks for his handling of the economy over the past 12 months, despite protests over coronavirusrelated shutdowns,according to a survey released in early December by the Public Policy Institute of California. It found 55% of residents in San Diego and Orange counties (combined in the study) approved of Newsom’s handling of the economy.

San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (65%) were most pleased with his performance. It was a different story in other parts of the state, where respondents in the Inland Empire (52%) and Central Valley (45%) said they approved.
[...]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ex-san-diego-mayor-kevin-faulconer-who-is-considering-run-for-governor-signs-petition-to-oust-newsom/ar-BB1cr1BV

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Not saying that Newsom will lose in 2022, but it seems ridiculous to completely throw this to safe D and forget about it. That being said, I think it’s still safe D, but who knows what could happen in the next 2 years or so.

[ottermax]

I doubt any California Democrats would brave running in the primary against Newsom... but if anyone tried who could take that 2nd slot?

[tosk]

I doubt any California Democrats would brave running in the primary against Newsom... but if anyone tried who could take that 2nd slot?

maybe someone to the left of newsom. some random state senator, or former statewide office holder. Delaine Eastin and John Chiang come to mind.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1346328340941000712?s=20

Food for thought.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1346328340941000712?s=20

Food for thought.

I guess I’m not sure what to glean other than that they all won re-election? (Despite Davis’s removal shortly after re-election)

[Sir Mohamed]

Comparisons with Gray Davis are meaningless. Not just are circumstances different, the CA of 2021 isn't the CA of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

[Mike Thick]

FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

Flip-flopping on his Trump support like three times during the “shadow primary” that’s been going on for a while, mostly. There’s no answer that can really satisfy everyone he needs to satisfy and he’s struggling with that

[tosk]

FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

Flip-flopping on his Trump support like three times during the “shadow primary” that’s been going on for a while, mostly. There’s no answer that can really satisfy everyone he needs to satisfy and he’s struggling with that

right I see. He's having trouble getting the base in line. makes sense, thanks.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

Flip-flopping on his Trump support like three times during the “shadow primary” that’s been going on for a while, mostly. There’s no answer that can really satisfy everyone he needs to satisfy and he’s struggling with that

The CA GOP paradox and why the hole gets deeper with every election cycle:

Campaign on moderation and they're no different than the Democrats who hold a supermajority.

Campaign on red-meat rhetoric and they're no different than the anti-maskers/vaxxers who are toxic to, at least, 2/3 of the electorate.

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1347756218056466432?s=21

My guess is that this is either for 2026, or a hamfisted shot at torpedoing his nomination for AG. Who knows?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1347756218056466432?s=21
My guess is that this is either for 2026, or a hamfisted shot at torpedoing his nomination for AG. Who knows?

Oh baby yes, split Dem vote, let a republican make it in to the runoff.

[DrScholl]

Tons of legislators register domain names well in advance. Bonta won't challenge Newsom when he can wait until 2026 for an open seat. If he does get appointed Attorney General he can run for a full term in 2022 and be seat to run for Governor in 2026.

[Mike Thick]

Tons of legislators register domain names well in advance. Bonta won't challenge Newsom when he can wait until 2026 for an open seat. If he does get appointed Attorney General he can run for a full term in 2022 and be seat to run for Governor in 2026.

Yeah I don’t think Bonta is stupid. If there were any rumblings of him challenging Newsom, he never would have been let within ten miles of a statewide appointment

[LabourJersey]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Newsom is proposing, 600 but we don't know if it's gonna pass

[Mike Thick]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

[LabourJersey]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Makes sense

[StateBoiler]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?