CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Donerail]

Faulconer could do very well if the election was tomorrow but I just don't think people will hold onto their anger after we get a vaccine. His "best" shot here is probably to gather 1.5 million signatures during a pandemic. Good luck to him.

[Donerail]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

[Donerail]

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

do you think people write their address on their ballot?

[Donerail]

The recall might be more likely than not now. The self-reported petition numbers have been jumping dramatically over the last few weeks. Look at how people are behaving — there's a ton of big checks flowing into the recall campaign & Gavin's people are pushing these kinds of stories in the LA Times. Not the acts of people, on either side, who think this is unlikely to succeed. It'll be close, but if they keep the validity rate that high, it'll happen.

[Donerail]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

There is one very obvious way to cut the income tax and nevertheless generate lots of revenue for new spending but unfortunately it involves possibly making homeowners pay taxes so it is a political non-starter for most normal pols (though maybe not Chamath?).

[Donerail]

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

There is one very obvious way to cut the income tax and nevertheless generate lots of revenue for new spending but unfortunately it involves possibly making homeowners pay taxes so it is a political non-starter for most normal pols (though maybe not Chamath?).

Wouldn't this make the state even more expensive? Living in California is already extremely expensive, which is why some Californians are leaving for Arizona or Texas. At least it should be made sure any tax hikes don't hurt the middle class.

Yes, but that’s sort of the point — if it costs more to own a house, it’s suddenly much less valuable to hold onto it as an asset. That means there’s less of an incentive to stay in your home (putting more houses on the market), less of an need to make up low property taxes with fees on new development, and — in the long term — less of an incentive for incumbent homeowners to block new developments, because there’d be a downside to overinflated property values. And if you're making up for it by eliminating the income tax, it's not much of a burden (especially for non-homeowners).

[Donerail]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

[Donerail]

Several of these 1 million signatures will likely be kicked out, so they need more like 2 million before March have enough valid ones. That's not too likely.

Current valid rate is very high (~85%), if they keep that clip up they'll only need in the 1.7-1.8 range. Shouldn't be too difficult.

[Donerail]

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

Isn't a recall being triggered proof of vulnerability in & of itself? Because I couldn't imagine a recall being triggered yet no serious Democrats running at all on the assumption that "hey, not like it looks all that likely, but if this recall ends up f**king Newsom over, I might as well try & stand to benefit."

If the first few polls have him leading big — say 43-57 to retain — there will be a significant internal push to concentrate the party's efforts on defeating the recall rather than splitting their fundraising & messaging to both defeat the recall and win the election. "No to recall, yes to Bustamante" was not a successful slogan for either the anti-recall campaign or Bustamante.

[Donerail]

Petition for title change to CA-GOV 2021 megathread

https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1359554353388945409

[Donerail]

Doug Ose announced he was running for governor in 2018, no one noticed or cared, and he dropped out two months later. He is not a particularly strong candidate.

[Donerail]

From my understanding, if enough voter signatures are collected statewide, a "Yes" or "No" option is presented to voters?

Yes

If the "Yes" side wins does that mean Democrats will have replace Newsom on the ballot for the next two rounds of special election voting?

Nope. There aren't multiple rounds of voting and there's no special election — there's just two questions on the recall ballot, yes/no on Gavin and selecting one name from a list for who you want to replace Gavin in the event yes wins. If yes gets 50%+1, the name that got the most votes on the second question becomes Governor. It is possible to win with a plurality (and it's possible that more people vote to retain Gavin than votes for any of the alternatives, but that doesn't matter as long as it clears 50%).

[Donerail]

Steyer running, making enough Dem voters feel comfortable voting YES for recall to succeed, and then winning b/c Republican voters split between Faulconer, Cox and Grenell would be a truly incredible self-own for the California GOP. As such, it's basically fated to happen at this point.

[Donerail]

The problem with her is that being a transgender woman is a great way to alienate Republicans and being a Republican is a great way to alienate Democrats.

But the game here is not to win outright, it's to make enough people prefer one of the alternatives to Newsom. If there is a subset of people who would otherwise vote No who will vote Yes/Jenner, that is a good thing for all the other candidates, because the big hurdle is getting the first question under 50%. If that happens, then someone can win with 15% or whatever.

[Donerail]

Caitlyn Jenner might as well be Meghan McCain-someone who appeals to absolutely no one and seems to find a way to piss off every possible type of political demographic. I don't know if she knows this, and actually thinks she can win, but if so then it truly is entirely a vanity campaign. If we're lucky she'll be a footnote in this possible election like Kanye West was in 2020, in spite of their celebrity...and relationship to Kim Kardashian.

Is our politics just going become Six Degrees of Kardashian at this point? Trump even factors into that!

Why doesn't Jenner appeal to anyone? Explain. She was an U.S. Olympian....

Pro-Trump Republican (doesn't appeal to Democrats) trans woman (doesn't appeal to Republicans) who also did some light vehicular manslaughter (doesn't appeal to independents).

[Donerail]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

[Donerail]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

yes

But what would happen if you failed to vote for the replacement candidate, but yes on the recall?

Absolutely nothing? what? Your vote Yes still counts, it's just like if you only voted for Prez, just cuz you didn't vote for any other office, your vote for Prez doesn't become invalidated.

I see. But what happens if you vote "yes" on the recall, but for none of the replacement candidates?

[Donerail]

Gavin changed the rules in 2019 to list your political party next to your name if you're being recalled ("Should Gavin Newsom, Democrat, be recalled from office?"). Shrewd move, except he forgot to file the paperwork to take advantage of the law he created. Pending a state court ruling, he'll be listed as Gavin Newsom, no party preference.

[Donerail]

I still don't get what's the point to waste millions of dollars and call voters to the polls to recall a Democratic governor in a rocksolid blue state 14 months before the next regular election takes place anyway? Just because said governor could do more to tackle crisis like homelessness? Or is his crime to listen to science during a pandemic? Of course Newsom wasn't perfect, but no comparison to Florida man or Cuomo. And in a new situation like this, some errors inevitably happen.

Even in the extremely unlikely event the recall succeeds and a Republican replaces Newsom, he or she would face a state legislature with a Democratic supermajority and would stand zero chance to survive 2022.

I think people are underestimating the tail risk here. The Republican field is mostly full of clowns, yes, and California is a very Democratic state, but there is a path to defeat here. It is narrow, and mostly dependent on things that are outside the control of politicians. But it is going to be a rough summer. The hills are as dry right now as they usually are in September (the driest and hottest month), and the models are showing a major heat wave next week in the northern and central parts of the state. It is hard not to see the possibility of a very, very bad fire season that, along with high temperatures, produces the collapse of the power grid across the state. People don't like blackouts.

Would that be enough to throw out a governor? Probably not, but it's worth remembering that the recall is presented on the ballot as an up/down vote on Gavin. I understand wanting to get it over with, but man, I would not have scheduled the recall for September when all this will be at a peak.

I imagine most of the people who signed on to the recall were mad about the pandemic restrictions — Newsom imposed very stringent restrictions (that he did not care to follow himself) and they produced effectively the same health outcomes as DeSantis. But that will not be the issue over which the recall will be fought.

[Donerail]

Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R-some Placer County suburb) is in

[Donerail]

As I said above — if there's a scenario where Newsom loses, it's large-scale rolling blackouts, same as '03. And the WSJ is warning that it's coming

The California Independent System Operator is soliciting power producers across the West to sell more megawatts to the state in July and August in anticipation of regionwide heat waves that will substantially boost electricity demand … power supplies are lower than it expected, due to a reduction in hydroelectric generation caused by continuing drought conditions, power-plant outages and delays in bringing new generation sources online. …

CAISO’s emergency effort is critical to reducing the risk of rolling blackouts this summer, which could occur if demand exceeds available supply. … CAISO has asked for supplies available between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m., if not for longer, to offset the decline in solar generation. The grid operator hasn’t said exactly how much capacity it plans to procure, but noted that it is about 2,000 megawatts short of what it considers a comfortable margin between available supplies and demand at 8 p.m. local time, when solar production drops off.

[Donerail]

"Many people, including myself, disagree with the Governor and his decisions and wish someone different could be governor. Nevertheless," is quite a ringing endorsement

[Donerail]

"Many people, including myself, disagree with the Governor and his decisions and wish someone different could be governor. Nevertheless," is quite a ringing endorsement

That's kind of not what he said though.

There is a concept in literature called "subtext," where statements carry implicit meaning that can be understood by readers despite never being explicitly stated. In this case, an extraordinarily tepid endorsement, on the filing deadline, by a man who ran against Newsom and lost in the last election, carries more than a little hint of "should've been me."

[Donerail]

None of whom are Larry Elder.

[Donerail]

The eight Democrats:

MeetKevin ® Paffrath, a “landlord influencer” and YouTuber who is probably the most credible Democratic candidate — he’s one of two (Drake is the other) who has a campaign website.

Patrick Kilpatrick, an actor who has made a business out of playing action film villains. Kicked into a furnace by Jean-Claude Van Damme (1990’s Death Warrant), PreCrime officer in Minority Report (2002), eaten by a killer whale in Free Willy 3: The Rescue and, as Mercenary #2, was killed by a former Governor of California (1996’s Eraser).

Holly L. Baade, a “spirit-initiated shaman” who operates a retreat center up in Marin.

John R. Drake, a college student whose bio says that he has been “interest[ed] in Politics since I was in Middle School. While most kids were trading Pokémon cards on the playground, I was reading political theory and catching up on world events.” (Possible Atlas Forum user??)

Jacqueline McGowan, “cannabis consultant” whose campaign is entirely about weed.

Daniel Watts, an attorney who ran as a 20-y/o UCSD student in the 2003 recall. Seems pretty cool tbh

Joel Ventresca, retired airport analyst and perennial candidate

Brandon Ross, M.D., owner of La Mesa Medical Hair Restoration, Inc.


And the third party/NPP candidates, roughly (roughly) ordered by seriousness/credibility:

Angelyne: needs no introduction

Jeff Hewitt: former mayor of Calimesa and current member of the Riverside County Board of Supervisors, Libertarian nominee. Positive: the only one of any of these people to ever win an election. Negative: multiple accusations of sexual harassment

Dan Kapelovitz: criminal defense attorney, former editor for Hustler. Seems like the more credible of the two Greens running.

Michael Loebs: political science adjunct at SFSU, chair of the California National Party

Dr. James Hanink: retired philosophy professor at Loyola Marymount, American Solidarity Party candidate

Adam Papagan: tour guide and owner of Cool LA Tours (offering The O.J. Tour, The #PumpRules Tour, etc.)

Dennis Richter: Walmart employee, Socialist Workers Party candidate

Heather Collins: owns a salon, seems to be mad about masks? Running as a Green for some reason

Denis Lucey: substitute teacher whose main issue seems to be child custody law reform

Jeremy Marciniak, Major Singh, David Moore: literally nothing on the internet about these people