CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[brucejoel99]

In the here & now, a majority of Californians will not vote for a Republican, period. The name of the individual running or whether or not they're running as an "independent" Republican is irrelevant. You could put up Faulconer, Mayes, or any other Republican today, & Democrats won't vote for a Republican. Hell, you could put Nancy Pelosi on the ballot as a Republican & she'd be unable to win in her own district (see: Steve Cooley's 2010 results in LA County).

[brucejoel99]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

I guess quitting Atlas & never coming back was too good to be true.

[brucejoel99]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Arnold pushed for that? It was passed two years after he left office.

It took effect 2 years after he left office, but it was passed in his final year, & he did publicly back it.

[brucejoel99]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Can’t do that according to SCOTUS. CA had mandated open primaries for a few years in the late 90s, but this was struck down as infringing on the parties’ rights to free association (or lack thereof). See California Democratic Party v. Jones.

That case didn't concern open primaries, in which the voter is restricted to voting for the candidates of only one party for all races on the ballot even though they're not required to declare party affiliation; it concerned blanket primaries, in which each voter's ballot lists every candidate regardless of party affiliation, allows the voter to choose freely among them, & the candidate of each party who wins the most votes is that party's nominee for the general election. In the blanket primary which SCOTUS ruled unconstitutional, the voter was given a ballot listing all candidates of all parties & was free to cross party lines from one race to the next. That's not the case in the regular type of open primary that OSR is suggesting.

[brucejoel99]

History would say that the LG is the odds-on favored Dem candidate if the recall makes the ballot. The issue is that Gavin has been too much of a spotlight hog to let Kounalakis do anything, so she doesn’t have much of a statewide profile. So, I’m not really sure what would happen.

Would Kounalakis even run in the recall? Seems to me that high-profile Dems (even her) would probably be more incentivized to just line-up behind Newsom & not run so as to undermine the recall's legitimacy.

[brucejoel99]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

Isn't a recall being triggered proof of vulnerability in & of itself? Because I couldn't imagine a recall being triggered yet no serious Democrats running at all on the assumption that "hey, not like it looks all that likely, but if this recall ends up f**king Newsom over, I might as well try & stand to benefit."

[brucejoel99]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

[brucejoel99]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

Expect the bolded assertions to change real quick if the recall is actually triggered & a nicely-timed poll or 2 shows up spewing a headline about Newsom being "in trouble" or something along those lines.

[brucejoel99]

A question just popped up in my head.

If the recall fails and Faulconer loses next year, would that make him the first person to lose 2 statewide elections 2 years in a row? Or would the only way that'd be accurate is if Newsom is recalled and Faulconer doesn't lead in the replacement question

Off the top of my head, CA hasn't seen many off-year statewide elections taking place just a year prior to the regularly scheduled statewide election (that is, like if the 2003 recall had happened in 2001, followed by the regular election in 2002), so he'd certainly be one of the firsts, if not the first.

[brucejoel99]

Bernie has something to say here:

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1368986051201601538

Bernie Sanders & being correct: name a more iconic duo.

[brucejoel99]

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/

An incumbent Democratic governor of one of the most Democratic states in the Union being favored to not be kicked out of office? Shocking.

[brucejoel99]

Are Democrats outside of the Bay Area that disorganized that they can't stop the San Francisco Clan from winning everything?

Yes.

"Honesty is such a lonely word."

[brucejoel99]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

[brucejoel99]

Ose probably is one of the stronger Republicans who could run.

Assuming he's top Republican, the recall is Lean D.

Are you doing this on purpose or something?

I see this recall as similar to the Senate race in 2010. The incumbent is favored, but it wouldn't take much to knock him out.

With Grenell (the only other significant Republican who has declared interest so far), I'd have it as Safe D. California isn't going to vote for a Trump appointee.

Why are you differentiating between the potential effects of their candidacies on the race as if there's a pre-recall primary or something? There's no top-2 system for the recall that could result in races like Democrat vs. Ose or Democrat vs. Grenell, they're both gonna be on the recall ballot alongside every single candidate not named Gavin Newsom & in the event that the latter is recalled, the candidate with a plurality wins.

It's an invisible primary. Republicans are (mostly) going to gravitate to one candidate, if they want the best chance at not electing another Democrat to replace Newsom.

You're giving the CA Republican Party a bit too much credit, given that this is the same party that managed to get itself locked-out of the general in 3 of the last 4 marquee statewide elections.

[brucejoel99]

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

I’d echo this. We don’t need to be taking more folks from the US House as also mentioned.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/us/politics/dianne-feinstein-biden.html?force_isolation=true

Buried in this (mostly wishcasting) article about Democrats trying to push California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) out of her seat in favor of someone younger and more left-wing is the nugget that Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D) is thought to be actively lobbying the Biden administration for an ambassadorship, possibly to Greece. Should Titus be named an Ambassador she would vacate her deep-blue NV-1 seat covering the center of the Las Vegas metro area.

Ok, she shouldn't get that ambassadorship, then. Not that complicated.

[brucejoel99]

I'm cool with Tom Steyer, but what I'd really like to see is his lone plaid tie make a run for Governor too.

[brucejoel99]

Governors Schwarzenegger & Steyer hold a bluntly honest, wide-ranging & frankly inspiring conversation concerning the perils & rewards of running for & being elected Governor in recall elections (colorized, circa 2024).

[brucejoel99]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Tom Steyer's about to be the next Governor, isn't he?

[brucejoel99]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Some of the reporters I follow on Twitter say this is made up, and the article doesn’t exist. But if something bad is floating around out there, probably gets picked up soon

If you're able to get into it, can you please explain what the "this" (some article?)/the "something bad" is?

[brucejoel99]

Caitlyn Jenner may run for governor of California, according to new report

A report from Axios states that Jenner has been privately consulting with political advisors about being a candidate, making her incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom's biggest opponent yet, if the rumors are true.

lol

Buckle up, buckaroos!

[brucejoel99]

What happens if you vote for the recall but for no gubernatorial replacement?

I would assume the 1st question is still counted. Interestingly, the total number of votes in the 2003 recall almost match each other.

as a note, before the 2003 recall, they struck down a provision that meant if you voted no on recall, you had no vote in the replacement.

I know that. But what happens if you vote yes, but don't vote for a replacement candidate? Does the "yes" vote still count?

Sir Mohamed literally answered that exact question, though of course, that not stopping you from trying to figure out how you can ask the same question in 500 different ways isn't at all surprising.

[brucejoel99]

When can be expect a date for the recall set? As far as I know, the lieutenant governor has to make that decision within a certain framework.

I think she could potentially make it today. Today is when the final total of accepted signatures is confirmed, after the month window for signatories to voluntarily withdrawal their signature, and the legislature has fast-tracked appropriations through the state budget process. However, it probably won't be precisely today, likely very soon though.

Apparently the Dems are thinking about a early September vote. While it would reduce turnout compared to November, it would better capitalize on any pandemic goodwill, while also giving less time for the election to radically change.

Although a mid-September vote is becoming a distinctly likelier possibility, given that the county clerks have now been unable to guarantee enough paper to literally just print the ballots on if L.G. Kounalakis decides to hold it before then.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/steffdaz/status/1410709767366930433

Sept. 15th headlines: "Gavin Newsom wins California recall election"

[brucejoel99]

So as I understand it, the recall ends if Newsom resigns - making the Lt Gov Eleni Kounalakis the new Governor.

Is there any legal reason why Newsom can't just resign, have Kounalakis appoint him as the new Lt. Gov, have her resign, and then re-appoint her as Lt Gov?

He'd need to be Senate-confirmed before he'd be eligible to re-succeed her, so, y'know... good luck with that, optics-wise.

[brucejoel99]

Larry Elder claims the ideal minimum wage is....nothing.

California workers currently earn a minimum of $13 or $14 an hour, but Larry Elder says he’d get rid of a legal baseline altogether.

“For somebody who’s never run a business to tell business people... ‘I’m going to jack up your price of labor, and you’re going to deal with it,’ to me, it’s offensive,” said Elder, a longtime conservative talk radio host and leading candidate to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election this fall.

“The ideal minimum wage is $0.00,” he added.

PSA: Vote Faulconer on question two.

Just in case.

This unknown "Kevin Paffrath" guy is somehow leading in a replacement poll for presumably no other reason than the fact that there happens to be a "(D)" next to his name. Is he any good?