cnalysis State Legislative Forecasts

[Chips]

CNAnalysis is doing FiveThirtyEight style forecasts for states upper and lower chambers.

Here are the lower chamber forecasts...

Alabama

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Alaska

62% chance of GOP takeover
9% chance of TIE
29% chance of DEM hold

Arkansas

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

California

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Colorado

72% chance of DEM hold
9% chance of DEM supermajority
27% chance of GOP takeover

Connecticut

79% chance of DEM hold
22% chance of DEM supermajority
21% chance of GOP takeover

Delaware

>99% chance of DEM hold
77% chance of DEM supermajority

Florida

>99% chance of GOP hold
57% chance of GOP supermajority

Georgia

98% chance of GOP hold
2% chance of DEM takeover

Hawaii

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Idaho

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Illinois

95% chance of DEM hold
49% chance of DEM supermajority
1% chance of TIE
3% chance of GOP takeover

Indiana

>99% chance of GOP hold
98% chance of GOP supermajority

Iowa

>99% chance of GOP hold
58% chance of GOP supermajority

Kentucky

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Maine:

50% chance of DEM hold
49% chance of GOP takeover

Massachusetts

99% chance of DEM supermajority

Missouri

>99% chance of GOP hold
88% chance of GOP supermajority

Michigan

76% chance of GOP hold
4% chance of GOP supermajority
4% chance of TIE
20% chance of DEM takeover

Minnesota

61% chance of GOP takeover
4% chance of TIE
35% chance of DEM hold

Montana

>99% chance of GOP hold
76% chance of GOP supermajority

Nevada

67% chance of DEM hold
13% chance of DEM supermajority
6% chance of TIE
26% chance of GOP takeover
1% chance of GOP supermajority

New Mexico

85% chance of DEM hold
9% chance of DEM supermajority
5% chance of TIE
10% chance of GOP takeover

New York

>99% chance of DEM hold
71% chance of DEM supermajority

North Carolina

93% chance of GOP hold
41% chance of GOP supermajority
2% chance of TIE
5% chance of DEM takeover

Oregon

70% chance of DEM hold
38% chance of DEM supermajority
6% chance of TIE
24% chance of GOP majority
3% chance of GOP supermajority

Pennsylvania

80% chance of GOP hold
20% chance of DEM takeover

Rhode Island

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

South Carolina

>99% chance of GOP hold
94% chance of GOP supermajority

Tennessee

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Texas

>99% chance of GOP hold

Utah

>99% chance of GOP hold
91% chance of GOP supermajority

Washington

86% chance of DEM hold
4% chance of TIE
9% chance of GOP takeover

West Virginia

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Wisconsin

>99% chance of GOP hold
34% chance of GOP supermajority

I'll do lower chamber forecasts later, but if someone wants to pick it up for me they can. https://projects.cnalysis.com/21-22/state-legislative/ Here's the link.

[Chips]

Okay, here are the upper chamber forecasts!

Alabama

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Alaska

>99% chance of GOP hold

Arizona

94% chance of GOP hold
3% chance of GOP supermajority
4% chance of TIE
2% chance of DEM takeover

California

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Colorado

82% chance of DEM hold
18% chance of GOP takeover

Connecticut

76% chance of DEM hold
41% chance of DEM supermajority
7% chance of TIE
17% chance of GOP takeover

Delaware

99% chance of DEM supermajority

Florida

99% chance of GOP hold
51% chance of GOP supermajority

Georgia

99% chance of GOP hold

Hawaii

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Idaho

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Illinois

93% chance of DEM hold
64% chance of DEM supermajority
6% chance of GOP takeover

Indiana

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Iowa

>99% chance of GOP hold
76% chance of GOP supermajority

Kentucky

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Maine

66% chance of DEM hold
4% chance of DEM supermajority
34% chance of GOP takeover
2% chance of GOP supermajority


Maryland

>99% chance of DEM hold
98% chance of DEM supermajority

Massachusetts

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Michigan

58% chance of GOP hold
2% chance of GOP supermajority
13% chance of TIE
28% chance of DEM takeover

Minnesota

76% chance of GOP hold
1% chance of GOP supermajority
24% chance of DEM takeover

Montana

>99% chance of GOP hold
60% chance of GOP supermajority

Nebraska

>99% chance of GOP hold
91% chance of GOP supermajority

Nevada

83% chance of DEM hold
1% chance of DEM supermajority
16% chance of GOP takeover

New Hampshire

91% chance of GOP hold
27% chance of GOP supermajority
6% chance of TIE
3% chance of DEM takeover

New York

>99% chance of DEM hold
84% chance of DEM supermajority


North Carolina

98% chance of GOP hold
40% chance of GOP supermajority
1% chance of TIE

North Dakota

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Oklahoma

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Oregon

68% chance of DEM hold
26% chance of DEM supermajority
18% chance of TIE
13% chance of GOP takeover

Pennsylvania

96% chance of GOP hold
4% chance of GOP supermajority
3% chance of TIE
1% chance of DEM takeover

Rhode Island

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

South Dakota

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Tennessee

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Texas

>99% chance of GOP hold
98% chance of GOP supermajority

Utah

>99% chance of GOP hold
97% chance of GOP supermajority

Washington

98% chance of DEM hold
2% chance of GOP takeover

West Virginia

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Wisconsin

>99% chance of GOP hold
57% chance of GOP supermajority

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We already know RS dominate the State Legislatures because of Gerrymandering D's do better at the Federal Legislature because we elect more D PREZ and at the state levels due to line item vetos RS dominate we still gonna win WI, PA, MI and NV be sure we have D's in the House abd Senate at the Federal not state level, we had the same R dominance in those states back in 2010 and we still won, but Hillary lost them because Rs had Supermajority in 2019 v now and Sunder and Walker were Govs, Johnson isn't Walker and Granholm will win

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. It seems Nevada dems didn't take their swing for the fences approach for state legislature  like they did for Congressional.

[Person Man]

It looks like they are expecting a shift of 1 or 2 chambers to the right, then? Which is what is expected with a roughly R+4-5 map that has been degerrymandered to a certain extent and where there hasn't been any major backlashes against state-level Republicans since 2008.

It will also interesting to see how a much anticipated cancelling of the right to an abortion will play out in this arena.

[Chips]

It looks like they are expecting a shift of 1 or 2 chambers to the right, then? Which is what is expected with a roughly R+4-5 map that has been degerrymandered to a certain extent and where there hasn't been any major backlashes against state-level Republicans since 2008.

It will also interesting to see how a much anticipated cancelling of the right to an abortion will play out in this arena.

That is correct. MN-House and AK-House are projected to switch control with ME-House basically being a flip of a coin as to whether it flips or not.

[Chips]

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. It seems Nevada dems didn't take their swing for the fences approach for state legislature  like they did for Congressional.

Yes, they are still favorites to hold on though as well as a slim but pretty possible chance to win a supermajority in the House and a very unlikely 1% chance of a supermajority in the Senate.

You're welcome by the way.

[Chips]

Some of the forecasts have changed. For example, the GOP has improved odds in chambers in OR and NV and a lesser chance of supermajorities in UT. The OR senate now has a 1 in 5 chance of being tied.

[Chips]

Update: They now have the Maine House at a 56% chance of GOP takeover.

Now, the GOP is favored to take over three statewide lower chambers according to cnalysis.

[Chips]

Basically, here's where things stand now...

LOWER

Republicans are favored to maintain a hold of every chamber they currently have. The lower chambers with the best pickup opportunities for Democrats appear to be Pennsylvania and Michigan at the moment but with only a 21% and 20% chance respectively of a takeover, even those will prove to be somewhat of uphill battles. North Carolina also has a 4% chance of a DEM takeover. Meanwhile, Republicans are favored to pick up three lower chambers from the Democrats. Alaska, Minnesota and Maine with a 62%, 61% and 56% chance respectively of flipping those respective chambers. They also have over a 20% chance to pick up lower chambers in Nevada (34% chance), Colorado (27% chance), Oregon (26% chance) and Connecticut (21% chance) as well as longshot odds in Washington (11% chance), New Mexico (10% chance) and Illinois (2% chance). Every other chamber they currently have analysis for has a 99% or greater chance of holding for their respective parties.

UPPER

Currently, every chamber is projected to stay where they're at now after November though both Democrats and Republicans have pickup opportunities. The best chance any party has of picking up an upper chamber right now is Maine which currently sits at a 39% chance of a GOP takeover. The best chance a Democrat has of taking an upper chamber currently is Michigan with a 28% chance of a DEM takeover. Other DEM takeover possibilities include Minnesota (24% chance), Pennsylvania (7% chance), New Hampshire (3% chance) and Arizona (2% chance). Other GOP takeover possibilities are Nevada/Colorado (both with an 18% chance of a GOP takeover) Oregon/Connecticut (both with a 17% chance of a GOP takeover) and Washington (2% chance). Both parties did a respectable job on the whole shoring up what chambers they hold but both sides have prospects to pick up an upper chamber or two.

OVERALL PICTURE

Many people on both sides believe this to be a GOP favored year and when it comes to state legislatures, no exceptions. Being outright favored to pick up three lower delegations from the DEMS and prospects for more pickups in both lower and upper chambers, the GOP sets out to make a stand in as many states as possible. DEMS are faced with the task of proving not only can they hold what they have, but also make inroads in states like MN, MI and PA.

[Minnesota Mike]

You do realize this is just the rankings from some guy on election Twitter who is trying to pass himself off as some sort of expert?

[Chips]

You do realize this is just the rankings from some guy on election Twitter who is trying to pass himself off as some sort of expert?

He has a website. From what I can see, hardly anyone else is forecasting what will happen in state legislatures.

[Mr.Phips]

What are the chances Dems fall below their 2014 all time low of state legislative chambers (30) after 2022?

[Chips]

What are the chances Dems fall below their 2014 all time low of state legislative chambers (30) after 2022?

They have 37 chambers in both houses combined currently so they need to lose 8. MN-HOUSE, AK-HOUSE and ME-HOUSE are already favored to flip so that would bring them down to 34. ME-SEN and NV-HOUSE are next in line with a 39% and 34% chances of flipping so that brings them down to 32. OR-HOUSE, CO-HOUSE and CT-HOUSE would bring them down to 29 so the GOP must do exceptionally well in state lower chambers to break their record. Unlikely, but not impossible.

[Minnesota Mike]

What are the chances Dems fall below their 2014 all time low of state legislative chambers (30) after 2022?

Nearly impossible.

[Chips]

Here are the lower chamber forecasts almost 3 months later...

Alabama

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Alaska

70% chance of GOP takeover
8% chance of TIE
22% chance of DEM hold

Arkansas

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

California

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Colorado

72% chance of DEM hold
16% chance of DEM supermajority
28% chance of GOP takeover

Connecticut

79% chance of DEM hold
22% chance of DEM supermajority
21% chance of GOP takeover

Delaware

>99% chance of DEM hold
77% chance of DEM supermajority

Florida

>99% chance of GOP hold
57% chance of GOP supermajority

Georgia

>99% chance of GOP hold

Hawaii

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Idaho

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Illinois

97% chance of DEM hold
56% chance of DEM supermajority
1% chance of TIE
2% chance of GOP takeover

Indiana

>99% chance of GOP hold
97% chance of GOP supermajority

Iowa

>99% chance of GOP hold
47% chance of GOP supermajority

Kansas

>99% chance of GOP hold
90% chance of GOP supermajority

Kentucky

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Maine:

56% chance of GOP takeover
44% chance of DEM hold

Massachusetts

99% chance of DEM supermajority

Missouri

>99% chance of GOP hold
82% chance of GOP supermajority

Michigan

73% chance of GOP hold
4% chance of GOP supermajority
4% chance of TIE
23% chance of DEM takeover

Minnesota

61% chance of GOP takeover
4% chance of TIE
35% chance of DEM hold

Montana

>99% chance of GOP hold
82% chance of GOP supermajority

Nevada

59% chance of DEM hold
13% chance of DEM supermajority
6% chance of TIE
34% chance of GOP takeover
3% chance of GOP supermajority

New Mexico

83% chance of DEM hold
9% chance of DEM supermajority
6% chance of TIE
11% chance of GOP takeover

New York

>99% chance of DEM hold
72% chance of DEM supermajority

North Carolina

94% chance of GOP hold
49% chance of GOP supermajority
2% chance of TIE
4% chance of DEM takeover

Ohio

>99% chance of GOP hold
88% chance of GOP supermajority

Oklahoma

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Oregon

69% chance of DEM hold
30% chance of DEM supermajority
6% chance of TIE
26% chance of GOP majority
4% chance of GOP supermajority

Pennsylvania

79% chance of GOP hold
21% chance of DEM takeover

Rhode Island

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

South Carolina

>99% chance of GOP hold
96% chance of GOP supermajority

Tennessee

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Texas

>99% chance of GOP hold

Utah

>99% chance of GOP hold
79% chance of GOP supermajority

Washington

68% chance of DEM hold
5% chance of TIE
26% chance of GOP takeover

West Virginia

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Wisconsin

>99% chance of GOP hold
32% chance of GOP supermajority

Wyoming

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

[Chips]

Upper chamber forecasts!

Alabama

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Alaska

94% chance of GOP hold
5% chance of TIE
2% chance of DEM takeover

Arizona

93% chance of GOP hold
7% chance of GOP supermajority
6% chance of TIE
1% chance of DEM takeover

Arkansas

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

California

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Colorado

73% chance of DEM hold
27% chance of GOP takeover

Connecticut

76% chance of DEM hold
35% chance of DEM supermajority
7% chance of TIE
17% chance of GOP takeover

Delaware

99% chance of DEM supermajority

Florida

99% chance of GOP hold
51% chance of GOP supermajority

Georgia

>99% chance of GOP hold

Hawaii

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Idaho

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Illinois

>99% chance of DEM hold
71% chance of DEM supermajority

Indiana

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Iowa

>99% chance of GOP hold
72% chance of GOP supermajority

Kentucky

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Maine

60% chance of DEM hold
4% chance of DEM supermajority
39% chance of GOP takeover
3% chance of GOP supermajority


Maryland

>99% chance of DEM hold
98% chance of DEM supermajority

Massachusetts

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

Michigan

57% chance of GOP hold
2% chance of GOP supermajority
13% chance of TIE
30% chance of DEM takeover

Minnesota

78% chance of GOP hold
1% chance of GOP supermajority
22% chance of DEM takeover

Montana

>99% chance of GOP hold
63% chance of GOP supermajority

Nebraska

>99% chance of GOP hold
91% chance of GOP supermajority

Nevada

82% chance of DEM hold
1% chance of DEM supermajority
18% chance of GOP takeover

New Hampshire

91% chance of GOP hold
27% chance of GOP supermajority
6% chance of TIE
3% chance of DEM takeover

New York

>99% chance of DEM hold
62% chance of DEM supermajority


North Carolina

99% chance of GOP hold
67% chance of GOP supermajority
1% chance of TIE

North Dakota

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Ohio

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Oklahoma

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Oregon

62% chance of DEM hold
21% chance of DEM supermajority
20% chance of TIE
17% chance of GOP takeover

Pennsylvania

92% chance of GOP hold
4% chance of GOP supermajority
7% chance of TIE
1% chance of DEM takeover

Rhode Island

>99% chance of DEM supermajority

South Dakota

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Tennessee

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Texas

>99% chance of GOP hold
99% chance of GOP supermajority

Utah

>99% chance of GOP hold
97% chance of GOP supermajority

Washington

91% chance of DEM hold
9% chance of GOP takeover

West Virginia

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

Wisconsin

>99% chance of GOP hold
83% chance of GOP supermajority

Wyoming

>99% chance of GOP supermajority

[Chips]

The outlook seems to have improved a bit for Republicans with them now being a modest favorite in the ME-House and a few other key legislative contests swinging favorably as well.

[LiberalDem19]

Why are we so quick to write off MN-House? One of the GOP flips in the house the DFL base was college students and it went to a recount. The courts created a 3rd DFL district in Rochester. The Iron Range is more DFL down ballot, so we could minimize our losses up north. The metro districts did well in redistricting outside Coon Rapids

[Chips]

Why are we so quick to write off MN-House? One of the GOP flips in the house the DFL base was college students and it went to a recount. The courts created a 3rd DFL district in Rochester. The Iron Range is more DFL down ballot, so we could minimize our losses up north. The metro districts did well in redistricting outside Coon Rapids

Well, they do put the Minnesota DEMS at a 35% chance to retain the State House so it's far from an unrealistic prospect they could.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oregon Dems were really team players. They drew a 5-1 congressional map but risked their legislative majorities.

[I’m not Stu]

Oregon Dems were really team players. They drew a 5-1 congressional map but risked their legislative majorities.

The congressional map could easily go 4-2 GOP.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Oregon Dems were really team players. They drew a 5-1 congressional map but risked their legislative majorities.

The congressional map could easily go 4-2 GOP.

Yes but it's intention is 5-1 and most cycles it should hold