CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[President Johnson]

Newsom will easily get reelected. There is nothing to see here.

[President Johnson]

Good luck with that, buddy.

[President Johnson]

Its Safe D but Faulconer is exactly what the CA GOP needs to rebuild the party . Getting 42-43% would be a good goal

I think that could be doable, but not likely to happen. Interstingly, Newsom wouldn't be the first California governor to win reelection with a lower vote share than in the previous election. Pat Brown, Ronald Reagan and Gray Davis had smaller vote share in their second bid.

[President Johnson]

I hope Newsom gets primary-challenged. His COVID response is destroying the state, and he's not following his own rules.

Who would you like to run? I think London Breed would make a great governor, but she's not going to run against him.

[President Johnson]

Doubtful a recall would go anywhere. But it would be hilarious if he gets reelected by a closer margin than expected and then recalled in 2023, everything just like Gray Davis.

I thought Newsom has the potential to be nearly as great as Jerry Brown, but he's not even close to it. Brown was one of the best governors ever.

[President Johnson]

I doubt Faulconer runs. What other Republican might run?

According to Wikipedia, 2018 candidate John Cox started an exploratory committee. Obviously, he would get blown out again in case he makes it to the November ballot.

[President Johnson]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

Cox was actually some sort of Trumpist, at least got endorsed by the God Emperor. In the end it likely doesn't matter, Newsom will demolish any Republican.

[President Johnson]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Arnold pushed for that? It was passed two years after he left office. Anyway, I agree that the jungle primary is a very flawed system regardless of a state's partisan lean. It should go back to (open) primaries in each party. And the recall should be abolished as well. Governors are supposed to be elected for a four year term and not be out campaigning all the time. For serious legal issues, impeachment would be the way to go.

[President Johnson]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

Too bad Jerry Brown is so old and term-limited. I wish he could come back.

[President Johnson]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

There is one very obvious way to cut the income tax and nevertheless generate lots of revenue for new spending but unfortunately it involves possibly making homeowners pay taxes so it is a political non-starter for most normal pols (though maybe not Chamath?).

Wouldn't this make the state even more expensive? Living in California is already extremely expensive, which is why some Californians are leaving for Arizona or Texas. At least it should be made sure any tax hikes don't hurt the middle class.

[President Johnson]

I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

[President Johnson]

Grenell? God help us. I'm glad this moron is out of Germany, he was a disaster as ambassador.

[President Johnson]

Trump is considering getting involved in the recall effort.

Presumably he would endorse Grenell. Would probably guarantee Newsom surviving and permanuke Faulconer's career at the same time.

Lmao, Donald Trump, the most popular man in the state of California.

[President Johnson]

Really looks like the recall happens. A waste of time.

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1363908691582418946

[President Johnson]

Grenell must have terrible political instincts if he actually thinks he has a slight chance to win in the state of California in the 2020s. The recall probably won't succeed and if so, would elect another Democrat. Grenell may eke out Faulconer in a 2022 jungle primary for the second spot, but Newsom or any other serious Democrat would absolutely destroy this Trump buddy.

[President Johnson]

Bernie has something to say here:

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1368986051201601538

[President Johnson]

https://www.kron4.com/news/california/exclusive-poll-californians-split-on-newsom-as-recall-looms/

Full poll: https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/california-poll-governor-newsom-facing-potential-recall


My key takeaways

- So many decimals points
- Recall gets 38% with 14% undecided
- 16.4% of Democrats, 15.8% of Independents and 6.7% of Republicans are Undecided
- Newsom's job approval is at 42-40 with 18% undecided
- Undecideds in general make up double-digits whenever it's asked
- No Undecided/DK option for some of the questions
- Memerson

This poll & the recall is a waste of time.

Most California polls, especially gubernatorial, were a waste of time in recent years.

[President Johnson]

Sadly, the party has coalesced around him. He has literally sucked for 15 years and just climbed. It's so damn annoying. He's utterly corrupt and incompetent. He has literally accomplished nothing--he does not have a single significant legislative accomplishment despite no actual opposition. It's a damn shame this recall effort was so partisan and GOP-led. There's so much material to push moderates and progressives against Newsom, but they're (rightfully) against anything with a whiff of the Republican party on it.

Oh well. Recall Newsom. Impeach Cuomo. Elect new Democrats.

Who do you see as potentially successful governor of California? I agree that Newsom's tenure is underwhelming, though I oppose the recall (like most recalls, just go through regular elections). London Breed? Eleni Kounalakis? John Chiang? Adam Schiff?

[President Johnson]

A majority yes vote and a split Democratic vote could lead to a Republican governor even if Democrats get a large majority of the vote.

We know

Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

Even if this scenario - that has a very slim chance to begin with - were to become true, Cox wouldn't get a full term in 2022. There is just no chance. He'd be a 14 month lame duck governor with a two thirds Democratic legislature passing laws over his vetos.

[President Johnson]

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

[President Johnson]

There will be a million comparison to Arnold Schwarzenegger. Arnold was a much better candidate

He had higher name-id and a better image. Schwarzenegger was active in (GOP) politics including ballot measures.
Jenner is really untested.

Also: California is a much bluer state today than it was back in 2003. Partisanship is also through the roof.

And Ahnuld was a pretty moderate Republican.

[President Johnson]

So it's up to Eleni Kounalakis soon to determine a date for the election? Hopefully they get this nonsense over with as soon as possible. It's going to fail spectacularly.

[President Johnson]

The recall power should be eliminated. America has far too many provisions which just entrench minority rule

This is not an American thing as the power only exists where Progressives circa 1910 gained power.

Both is correct. However, other countries allow certain officers to be recalled as well; some German states permit recalls for mayors.

Governors however should be elected for four years and the legislature should have the power to impeach in case of severe wrongdoings or criminal behavior. This recall here is a political stunt.

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Cox is a total trainwreck.

[President Johnson]

Only Ric Grenell is finally missing in this clown car. California Republicans have become a total joke.