CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I feel like there’s probably a better title for this thread given that 85 people died when the town of Paradise burnt down thanks to PG&E’s negligence.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

Initially it was pretty good (we were one of the first states to lock down), but I think there was a lot of pressure on him to reopen. That did not go well. I’d give him a middling grade. Definitely better than someone like say Noem, but not the greatest.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

How did Newsom handle Covid? The summer spike reflects badly on his response, but I haven't looked into it.

Initially it was pretty good (we were one of the first states to lock down), but I think there was a lot of pressure on him to reopen. That did not go well. I’d give him a middling grade. Definitely better than someone like say Noem, but not the greatest.

It's pretty clear London Breed deserves a lot of the early credit, as far as actually containing a hot spot.

Yeah, the Bay Area as a whole has been a lot better off. I know that my area (Sacramento) was doing very good for a while too, but I think that our numbers have gone up. The really sad thing is that a lot of the cases seem to be in more heavily Hispanic areas that probably don’t have as good of healthcare. I think that some of the Spanish language outreach could probably be improved.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Not saying that Newsom will lose in 2022, but it seems ridiculous to completely throw this to safe D and forget about it. That being said, I think it’s still safe D, but who knows what could happen in the next 2 years or so.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1346328340941000712?s=20

Food for thought.

I guess I’m not sure what to glean other than that they all won re-election? (Despite Davis’s removal shortly after re-election)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

So Arnold pushing top 2 was a disaster for the CA GOP. What if he didnt push that top 2 rule and their were still Republican primaries but instead of closed he just made California primaries open

Can’t do that according to SCOTUS. CA had mandated open primaries for a few years in the late 90s, but this was struck down as infringing on the parties’ rights to free association (or lack thereof). See California Democratic Party v. Jones.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Kounalakis, Ma, and Yee have all kindasorta (jokingly? who knows) expressed interest in Gov runs before. I'm tempted to say Yee has the most profile just because she's been around the longest, but none of them have close to the profile Gavin or even Villaraigosa had last time.

Let's be honest, a row official probably couldn't pull it off. You need to look to congress and the mayors to find someone with a plausible shot at victory.

What about John Chiang? He'd probably do the best job.

I’d love to have Chiang. I voted for him in the primary. Idk if he’d run though, but I think he’d be a competent administrator.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

His motto when running for Governor was “Courage for a Change.” The last time he did something courageous was allowing gay marriage when he was mayor of SF.

I mean, I’d still vote for him and against a recall, but I wouldn’t support him in a primary for President.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.

If he looks vulnerable, at least one serious Dem will run just in case.

Worth noting that the recall still works the same way it did in 2003: one vote on the recall, and simultaneous vote on who should replace Newsom if he gets recalled. The second vote will have all candidates of all parties on the same ballot, like a primary. Unlike normally, though, the election is FPTP -- the person who gets the most votes in that round wins, even if they don't have a majority.

Something that I didn’t see mentioned there... Can Newsom run in the race to replace him?

I’d laugh so hard if a majority voted to recall, but a plurality voted for Newsom and he thus stayed in office.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Ok, now there's literally nothing to worry about even on the off-chance that Newsom is recalled, because not only does Grenell obviously have 0 chance, but he'd win enough MAGA people to guarantee a split among the remotely-open-to-a-Republican vote.

Only Republicans will be voting for a replacement, so vote splitting shouldn't matter; there won't be a Democrat to benefit, since no serious Democrat will run.

You expecting Democrats to vote No on Recall and simply leave the replacement question blank? Because I'm sure as hell voting for a Democrat even while voting No

Yes, that is exactly what is going to happen. Consider why Cruz Bustamante didn't win in 2003.

The Recall portion had ~430,000 blank or invalid votes

The Replacement portion had ~755,000 blank or invalid votes

So, at best, 325,000 Democrats didn’t vote in the replacement portion.

Schwarzenegger beat Bustamante by a margin of 1,500,000 votes.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I’m assuming that any Dems are remaining mum until it’s confirmed that there will be a recall. I hope that the Dem Party coordinates and gets only one major candidate to run (aside from the perennials on both sides).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Schiff is an awesome guy, but don't take any more House members out. Democrats already lost Haaland, Fudge and Richmond, which is currently just a 219-211 majority until the special election take place. From briefly checking the candidates, I think Bonta is a good choice.

I'm in for Bonta too honestly. Fits the moment and he could potentially be Gov one day

I’d echo this. We don’t need to be taking more folks from the US House as also mentioned.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Steyer running, making enough Dem voters feel comfortable voting YES for recall to succeed, and then winning b/c Republican voters split between Faulconer, Cox and Grenell would be a truly incredible self-own for the California GOP. As such, it's basically fated to happen at this point.

The only way it would be any better is if Newsom could run in the replacement part of the election and win it with a plurality. But alas, he can’t.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

Some of the reporters I follow on Twitter say this is made up, and the article doesn’t exist. But if something bad is floating around out there, probably gets picked up soon

If you're able to get into it, can you please explain what the "this" (some article?)/the "something bad" is?

Or even the tweets. I suspect it’s something sexual (like when he screwed his campaign manager’s wife like 15 years ago), but I have no confirmation.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Arnie Scharzenegger was a Kennedy and penetrated the Latino vote,

Yikes! Phrasing!

Looked intentional to me. I laughed

It's hilarious! But I don't know if Olawakandi has the capabilities to make a joke that good except on accident. No offense.

It definitely was a solid joke either way.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I really hate to do this, but it sounds like we should watch the news tomorrow in regards to Gavin. My friend working in the Capitol won’t say anything further, but it doesn’t sound good.

And this sir, is the into I like to see. Thank you for your contribution, and as such, I'll give my own. I've been informed by Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares that 2 SoCal Dem Assemblymen have been making the rounds and testing the water for a run.

Interesting; that may be how my source heard about it as well. He heard it from his boss who shall remain unnamed.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

From what my friend has told me about their job, I don’t think lawmakers flying coach from Burbank or LAX is that big of an issue. It’s only like an hour long flight.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

My only question is, do they get like pay for taking a smaller plane up, would they charter one together? "A couple of the Assemblymen I fly up to Sacramento with", iirc that was the wording, all in the context of dems running. In my mind it was some regular flight from LAX, but honestly might be too "low"  for them. Burbank makes lots of sense though, less hassle certainly.
Looking at your 3 picks, Holden had his Wikipedia page edited in late December, Chau in late January, and Nazarian in June of 2018. His is written the most like campaign excerpts though. Thought if any had super recent edits it'd help point us.

My friend schedules a lot of commercial flights, so I don’t think lawmakers flying coach from Burbank or LAX is that big of an issue. It’s only like an hour long flight.

Yeah I didn't think so, but still, knowing people, they could get some importance stuck in their head.

Totally fair. I think that a statewide official would probably fly private in general, but from what I hear, state legislators generally don’t.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Lol what SoCal Assemblymen (assuming they’re men) have the juice to try something like this

She used "he" pronouns, said "a couple" more than once, and said they took the plane with her, at least once. If anyone could figure it out based off that, please, have at it.

You know what, I’m gonna play this. So Assemblywoman Martinez Valladares lives in Santa Clarita, so I’m guessing she’d be using either LAX or perhaps more likely, Burbank.

Chris Holden, Adrin Nazarian, and Ed Chau are my prime suspects. They’ve all been in office since 2012. The first two would be especially likely to use Burbank.

Looking online, Chris Holden has specifically said he opposes the recall. Nazarian and Chau have both praised Newsom really highly on social media recently. Obv that doesn't rule out a No On Recall, Yes On Bustamante situation, but given how this is breaking down on pro-and-anti-Newsom lines, might suggest something.

So far (halfway through the 20 SoCal Dem Assemblymen) the most likely person is Richard Bloom of Santa Monica.

I had thought about Bloom, but he seems like he would be far more likely to use LAX. Now, that doesn’t mean that Assm. woman M-V doesn’t use LAX, but I would bet that she uses Burbank because LA area traffic is of course infamous.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I think you guys are reading a little too much into the airport thing? Like, the vast majority of people just use LAX regardless of traffic.

I ruled out people who oppose the recall or recently praised Newsom publicly, and people who are currently in their first term in the Assembly. I got this list:

Richard Bloom
Freddie Rodriguez
Eduardo Garcia
Tom Daly

Rodriguez and Garcia both endorsed Villa in 2018, for what that's worth. Daly isn't on social media so I couldn't really pin him down.

EDIT: Bloom stated opposition to the recall and praised Newsom in this piece. So we can rule him out.

EDIT2: Forgot to put Al Muratsuchi on the list.

This is Atlas though. We thrive on “Rain in NoVA means Dems are going to lose” types of tea leaf reading.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

He also has a tweet that seems kinda weird, saying that the State of State isn't the same during Covid, just felt kinda off to me.
https://twitter.com/AMuratsuchi/status/1369548587458170880

That is something of an odd tweet, I will say.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

On another tangent, oh God
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1374935649787121664

That would be hilarious and something I’d expect from 2020. But who knows what tomorrow will bring...