CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Donerail]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

[StateBoiler]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

These are normal hurdles for anything in politics that requires you as a citizen to sign something to be presented to the govt, no matter the state. Remember the saga of Kanye and how he had to submit 3x the threshold to even have a shot at being accepted? Ever taken a look at a ballot petition campaign? Hell, part of the reason the turnaround for forms you fill out in a govt office is so slow is because they need to confirm that it's actually you and not fraud.

[StateBoiler]

What are the chance of a recall by now? The petition already has a million signatures, and need 500,000 or so by March 17.

I don't see the recall succeeding personally but it looks like it has a chance of happening at the very least?

I think the odds are still slim considering how many signatures will be DQ'd.

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

These are normal hurdles for anything in politics that requires you as a citizen to sign something to be presented to the govt, no matter the state. Remember the saga of Kanye and how he had to submit 3x the threshold to even have a shot at being accepted? Ever taken a look at a ballot petition campaign? Hell, part of the reason the turnaround for forms you fill out in a govt office is so slow is because they need to confirm that it's actually you and not fraud.

I'm not disagreeing. I'm just saying if you're disqualifying a person's signature on a petition for wrong address, it should apply for all things the individual does or tries to do, not just this one particular case.

[Donerail]

Grounds?

The usual grounds for disqualifying signatures — signature doesn't match, address doesn't match address on file, signed twice, signed for someone else, don't live in the state, etc. They probably need 2 million to make sure they have 1.5 million valid signatures.

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

do you think people write their address on their ballot?

[Mike Thick]

[snip]

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

Great, because we disqualify people from voting for all of these things!
 - Counties check signatures on all mail ballots.
 - When you register to vote, your info gets cross-checked with a DMV database to make sure you aren't lying about your state of residence, social, DOB, etc.
 - If you try to vote more than twice, like by voting VBM and in-person, the county government will give you a provisional ballot unless you surrender your VBM ballot for destruction, and won't count it unless they verify that you didn't vote two times.
 - We use people's address in the voter rolls to verify that they're voting in the precinct they're supposed to vote. We also use their address in the voter rolls to check signatures. Same standard applies to both.

[Oryxslayer]

[snip]

They should use the same standards they used for people trying to vote last November, otherwise it's not equal protection.  If they disqualified people's votes for the general on those grounds, then it's within reason they can disqualify here for the same reason. Same is true for the flip case.

Great, because we disqualify people from voting for all of these things!
 - Counties check signatures on all mail ballots.
 - When you register to vote, your info gets cross-checked with a DMV database to make sure you aren't lying about your state of residence, social, DOB, etc.
 - If you try to vote more than twice, like by voting VBM and in-person, the county government will give you a provisional ballot unless you surrender your VBM ballot for destruction, and won't count it unless they verify that you didn't vote two times.
 - We use people's address in the voter rolls to verify that they're voting in the precinct they're supposed to vote. We also use their address in the voter rolls to check signatures. Same standard applies to both.

Also throw in the fact that many striked names are just because of formatting. A standard petition form has X number of lines for people to sign their names. If someone makes a mistake on one line with the pen, they must strike out their name and use a second line. Throw in the mickey mouse's and those that unintentionally added others information (good intentions, but not allowed) and the total number of signatures is always artificially inflated. Until it comes time for the state to examine the signatures, they usually only count the number of submitted forms which may have plenty of these null signatures.

The online innitative forms that have temporarily been legalized because of COVID have an even harder time cause out-of-staters will naturally end up with the link or form circulated into their hands, and they will sign it as an expression of their belief. You get less null signatures - remember some people will always troll an online form - but a lot more unusable ones.

[Mike Thick]

https://twitter.com/DavidChiu/status/1349494275319373826?s=20

If it was anyone but Gavin making the appointment, I would say it's all but sealed for Bonta.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

[Canis]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

Impressive that Faulconers getting 20% of democrats but still being unable to break 40% in a county that your a two-term mayor of the largest city in doesn't really bode well in a state as democratic as California...

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

Impressive that Faulconers getting 20% of democrats but still being unable to break 40% in a county that your a two-term mayor of the largest city in doesn't really bode well in a state as democratic as California...

Eh, 26% still aren't decided, but yeah, not great

[Mike Thick]

All I see here is more confirmation that Faulconer might not even crack top two

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

Impressive that Faulconers getting 20% of democrats but still being unable to break 40% in a county that your a two-term mayor of the largest city in doesn't really bode well in a state as democratic as California...

That isn't shocking or revealing at all. Given all the recall & anti-lockdown rhetoric, I'm honestly more impressed that Newsom managed to crack double-digits with San Diego Republicans (Doubly so with only 36% total support).


Faulconer is gonna have a hell of a time winning San Diego County no matter what.

Steve Poizner ran as a nonpartisan, easily outperformed every other statewide Republican, and only won San Diego County by 0.6%. Hell in 2014, with a less favorable electorate than today, Jerry Brown didn't even campaign and still won San Diego County by 2%.

Along with the 'Moderate vs Conservative rhetoric' paradox that CA Republicans face, there's also the caveat that all city/county offices are nonpartisan. While that could be great for building up a local bench, the Republican brand is just so toxic to folks that your exceptional Supervisor or Councilmember is DOA as soon as that R is next to their name.


Nonpartisan San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer? Inoffensive local official who doesn't seem to rock the boat.

Republican Gubernatorial candidate Kevin Faulconer? A non-starter for a good chunk of the electorate...And that's before finding out whether or not he's an anti-masker/vaxxer.

[Former President tack50]

Would Faulconer have a better chance if he ran as an indy and/or for one of the lower statewide offices? What would be his ceiling there?

At this point California is so Titanium D that this election is unwinnable for any Republican. My guess is that, at best he manages to lose by high single digits if he is lucky.

[Sir Mohamed]

Would Faulconer have a better chance if he ran as an indy and/or for one of the lower statewide offices? What would be his ceiling there?

At this point California is so Titanium D that this election is unwinnable for any Republican. My guess is that, at best he manages to lose by high single digits if he is lucky.

I don't see him making it into the runoff if runs as Indy. Neither are some lower statewide offices more in reach than the governorship. Just not happening.

I stand by my prediction he'll finish 3rd in the jungle primary 4 gov after Newsom and some crazy GOPer. Potentially Cox again. Faulconer has no base other than a few "former Orange County Republicans" or Romney-Clinton voters. He's for sure not making much inroads with Dems as Newsom is, contrary to impression in this forum, still pretty popular. At the same time, he's too moderate for Trumpers, whom are still a few million in all of CA.

[Oryxslayer]

Would Faulconer have a better chance if he ran as an indy and/or for one of the lower statewide offices? What would be his ceiling there?

At this point California is so Titanium D that this election is unwinnable for any Republican. My guess is that, at best he manages to lose by high single digits if he is lucky.

I don't see him making it into the runoff if runs as Indy. Neither are some lower statewide offices more in reach than the governorship. Just not happening.

I stand by my prediction he'll finish 3rd in the jungle primary 4 gov after Newsom and some crazy GOPer. Potentially Cox again. Faulconer has no base other than a few "former Orange County Republicans" or Romney-Clinton voters. He's for sure not making much inroads with Dems as Newsom is, contrary to impression in this forum, still pretty popular. At the same time, he's too moderate for Trumpers, whom are still a few million in all of CA.

On the topic of goin indie, I would point, as always, to Poizner and how he had everything going for him and he still lost. You can always get elected as an indie locally, no matter the complexion of ones views, because the quality of ones work matters more. The moment you go for higher office though people care about who you align with.

The main result of Faulconer going indie would be the surrendering of the GOP label to some nutjob (I personally think one of the con artists who runs against the prominent congressional dems every year, since this would just be another con) who will get unite the Trump voters and GOP loyalists behind them. The only way Falconer makes it to round two, no matter his label, is if the GOP ensures nobody else from their camp enters the race. In a high profile CA Gubernatorial contest, that is impossible.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

[President Johnson]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

Cox was actually some sort of Trumpist, at least got endorsed by the God Emperor. In the end it likely doesn't matter, Newsom will demolish any Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Galvin Newsom promised a stimulus of 600 before the recall vote, but nothing passed, he is a typical Politician

[Roll Roons]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

If I remember as well, his seat was like 60%+ against the ballot prop

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

Cox was actually some sort of Trumpist, at least got endorsed by the God Emperor. In the end it likely doesn't matter, Newsom will demolish any Republican.

Cox started out promoting himself as a "Jack Kemp Republican" and a "different kind of Republican", while also trying to ignore Trump as much as he can (https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2017/03/with-1-million-donation-wealthy-gop-businessman-john-cox-formally-enters-ca-governors-race-110150).

It wasn't until Travis Allen entered the race and challenged Cox that he felt forced to move more to the right. If the "different kind of Republican" shtick was working, the CA GOP wouldn't have felt pressured to get Allen out of the picture and have Trump endorse Cox within a month of the primary (Essentially negating his whole message).

Likewise, I think Faulconer is gonna have a hell of a time campaigning from the center-right and will be forced to pivot when GOP voters see him more as an establishment-friendly RINO.

Though as you said, it won't matter because Newsom is gonna win by double-digits.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

The only people who care/cared about Prop 16 are people outside of California.

And the only prop California voters had any clue about was Prop 22 (Gig drivers) and maybe the dialysis one. Everything else was just another question on the ballot.

[brucejoel99]

Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

I guess quitting Atlas & never coming back was too good to be true.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-23/recall-newsom-effort-qanon-antivaxxer-extremist-ties

LA Times: Recall Newsom effort has ties to far-right movements, including QAnon and virus skeptics

As the pandemic continues to shutter businesses, close schools and upend lives in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has become a target of angry frustration for some, driving a grassroots effort to recall him from office. What once started as a pipe dream is beginning to look like a political threat for the Democratic governor.

But a Times investigation found that recall campaign leaders, seeking to capitalize on the darkening public mood, allied with radical and extreme elements early on to help collect signatures. Those included groups promoting distrust of government, science and medicine; peddlers of QAnon doomsday conspiracies; “patriots” readying for battle and one organization allied with the far-right extremist group, the Proud Boys.

The recall gave those fringe factions a higher profile and a shared villain. They helped energize the campaign with large and often inflammatory rallies over masks, in support of Trump and against the election they falsely say was stolen from the former president — ripe venues to harvest petition signatures.

Many supporters of the recall are not extremists and may not be aware of the far-right groups involved with the effort. But with the violent insurgency at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, organizers are grappling with the consequences of their alliances. They now insist the extremists don’t represent the values of the recall movement but continue to associate with them, amid a national debate about how far is too far when it comes to winning in politics.

“Do we have to denounce everybody that is involved to move it forward?” the official proponent of the recall drive, a retired sheriff’s sergeant from Yolo County named Orrin Heatlie, asked The Times. “Or do we just move forward and ignore those other elements?”[...]

We shouldn't be surprised However, this was the quote I wanted to focus on:

[Randy] Economy said more than 1.2 million Californians have signed the petition to remove Newsom. As of Jan. 6, state elections officials said 723,783 signatures have been turned in by the recall campaign and of those, 485,650 have been verified.

According to Ballotpedia & the CA Secretary of State websites, the petition drive started on June 10.

So here's what we've got in the last 7 months. The last update was January 6:

Valid signatures needed for recall: 1,495,709
Signatures self-reported by the petitioners: 1,200,000+
Signatures officially turned in: 723,783
Verified signatures: 485,650
Valid signatures: 410,087
Valid/Verified signature rate: 84.4%

Signatures turned in per month: 103,398
Verified signatures per month: 69,379
Valid signatures per month: 58,583

They have a month and a half left on the deadline (March 17). I'll make another update the next time the CA Secretary of State does one, but something tells me there won't be a recall question anytime soon.