CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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Faulconer is pretty clearly telegraphing a run. Going to be satisfying to watch CAGOP's golden boy get absolutely clobbered

Just like fellow Mayor & "rising star" Ashley Swearengin.

Ran for Controller and lost by slightly more than Poizner despite piss-poor Democrat turnout

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I don't think people outside of California understand just how toxic the GOP is here. We've got a similar political dynamic with Kansas, where it's practically a 3rd-party system of solid-right Republicans, solid-left Democrats & Moderates who can fit in either party depending where the electoral wind blows (Former "Schwarzenegger Republicans", I guess now "Maienschein Democrats"). Any GOP politician in a "nonpartisan" local office is DOA as soon as the R is next to their name in a remotely left-leaning district race.

Not to mention, 2016/2018 exit polls found voters under 40 support the GOP candidates in the 20s & 30s compared to support at the mid 30s-40 for everyone older. The California GOP seems well on their way to emulating the Hawaii GOP over the next couple cycles. And they haven't done any signs of "moderating" or a makeover to mitigate the damage. Just ask NPP Assemblyman Chad Mayes, who was stripped of his GOP Assembly leader part 3 years ago for supporting cap-and-trade & could lose this November to a generic solid-right Republican.

And for the record, Newsom's approval ratings still hover around 55%, pretty much what Jerry Brown got during his most recent governorship. He will not face a serious challenge, not face danger of losing re-election and could very well not face a Republican

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Since we're discussing LA politics, what's everyones thoughts on the DA race? I'm honestly unsure how this turns out.

With COVID throwing a wrench into local campaigning, I'm going into November with the assumption that local incumbents are at a very good advantage. I can see Lacey winning by a bigger margin than expected (57-43?)

At the same time, Gascon has got some high-profile supporters. State & County Democratic Parties, LA Times, SEIU, Newsom, Harris, Dolores Huerta, Warren, Bernie, among plenty others.

Still, can't help but think that incumbents have a good advantage in this environment.

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Since we're discussing LA politics, what's everyones thoughts on the DA race? I'm honestly unsure how this turns out.

With COVID throwing a wrench into local campaigning, I'm going into November with the assumption that local incumbents are at a very good advantage. I can see Lacey winning by a bigger margin than expected (55-45?)

At the same time, Gascons got everyone you'd want endorsing him. State & County Democratic Parties, LA Times, SEIU, Newsom, Harris, Dolores Huerta, Warren, Bernie, among plenty others

This race is truly a tossup i predict it will turn out like LA sheriff 2018 with the incumbent with a small lead that evaporates as VBM comes in but I could really see it going either way im voting for Gascon and hopes he wins Rossi would have made a better DA though hope we get  a poll of this race

I'm also expecting Lacey's lead to dwindle after election night. It's just hard to gauge the outlook. County law enforcement seems to be fanning the flames in the midst of the Compton shooting, news still trickles in about her husband pointing the gun at protesters, organizing hasn't let up & folks may seem ready to start fresh regarding criminal justice.

Yet at the same time, I don't know if folks think Lacey's done enough to be voted out or if Gascon is known enough to make a difference. And I keep bringing it up, but this is not a good election environment to be re-introducing yourself and challenging an incumbent. Lacey certainly has the advantage there, I think.

A Gascon blowout, dead-heat, Lacey blowout, any result wouldn't surprise me really. I just don't know

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Oh, and reminder that the only long-term effect of a recall would be the Dem super-majorities and Democratic voters opting to scrap the recall provisions. It would be laid bare as a tool for the GOP to try and keep forcing for the outcome they and not the majority of CA voters want, so the voters would happily do away with it in the name of preserving the popular mandate.

I'm still peeved about Josh Newman's recall.

Anyway, it'll be "fun" watching the 'CA GOP Comeback!!!' takes blossom when Faulconer loses by 19% instead of Cox's 24%. That's if someone from the Travis Allen-wing doesn't steal the GOP thunder in the primary

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Also, I'm not sure something like this endears Faulconer to the 60ish percent of voters who still give positive marks to Newsom's job approval (Even after the state orders and dinner snafu).


LA Times: Ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is considering run for governor, signs petition to oust Newsom

[...]Faulconer said on Facebook and Twitter around 10:30 a.m. Saturday that he signed the recall effort because jobs are leaving the state, homelessness has increased and the state unemployment office's difficulty in issuing checks during the COVID-19 crisis.

Efforts to reach the governor’s office Saturday afternoon for comment were unsuccessful.

“Every Californian fed up with the governor’s hypocrisy and failures should sign the recall petition,” Faulconer wrote. “Either through a recall or a regular election, it’s time to start holding the governor accountable.”

Newsom gets mostly high marks for his handling of the economy over the past 12 months, despite protests over coronavirusrelated shutdowns,according to a survey released in early December by the Public Policy Institute of California. It found 55% of residents in San Diego and Orange counties (combined in the study) approved of Newsom’s handling of the economy.

San Francisco Bay Area (67%) and Los Angeles (65%) were most pleased with his performance. It was a different story in other parts of the state, where respondents in the Inland Empire (52%) and Central Valley (45%) said they approved.
[...]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ex-san-diego-mayor-kevin-faulconer-who-is-considering-run-for-governor-signs-petition-to-oust-newsom/ar-BB1cr1BV

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FTR: Everyone I've talked to says his rollout so far has been abysmal. Like, "finish 15 points behind John Cox in the primary if he doesn't figure his sh*t out" abysmal

how so? all i've seen is his one tweet, not sure how it could be all that much of a disaster.

Flip-flopping on his Trump support like three times during the “shadow primary” that’s been going on for a while, mostly. There’s no answer that can really satisfy everyone he needs to satisfy and he’s struggling with that

The CA GOP paradox and why the hole gets deeper with every election cycle:

Campaign on moderation and they're no different than the Democrats who hold a supermajority.

Campaign on red-meat rhetoric and they're no different than the anti-maskers/vaxxers who are toxic to, at least, 2/3 of the electorate.

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Seems as though we have the first poll for Newsom vs Faulocner.
Survey USA poll says in San Diego county, 38% Faulconer, 36% Newsom, rest undecided, Faulconer draws 20% of Democrats while Newsom gets 12% of Republicans.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=229207e8-4908-4ea4-b0b8-a18e36b2d338&c=37

Impressive that Faulconers getting 20% of democrats but still being unable to break 40% in a county that your a two-term mayor of the largest city in doesn't really bode well in a state as democratic as California...

That isn't shocking or revealing at all. Given all the recall & anti-lockdown rhetoric, I'm honestly more impressed that Newsom managed to crack double-digits with San Diego Republicans (Doubly so with only 36% total support).


Faulconer is gonna have a hell of a time winning San Diego County no matter what.

Steve Poizner ran as a nonpartisan, easily outperformed every other statewide Republican, and only won San Diego County by 0.6%. Hell in 2014, with a less favorable electorate than today, Jerry Brown didn't even campaign and still won San Diego County by 2%.

Along with the 'Moderate vs Conservative rhetoric' paradox that CA Republicans face, there's also the caveat that all city/county offices are nonpartisan. While that could be great for building up a local bench, the Republican brand is just so toxic to folks that your exceptional Supervisor or Councilmember is DOA as soon as that R is next to their name.


Nonpartisan San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer? Inoffensive local official who doesn't seem to rock the boat.

Republican Gubernatorial candidate Kevin Faulconer? A non-starter for a good chunk of the electorate...And that's before finding out whether or not he's an anti-masker/vaxxer.

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This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

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This sounds like it's gonna go the way of every other Gubernatorial primary in the top-two era. And every other, I mean 2014 and 2018  

The CA GOP spends all year promoting a "moderate" candidate who promises to lead a "new way forward" for the party. Then a Conservative Tea Party-type jumps in who attacks the "moderate" candidate for being too moderate, forcing the "moderate" candidate to pivot further to the right so to not lose the base vote. In the meantime, all the Democrats have to do is smile & shake their head at the ridiculous dysfunction of the CA GOP.

They better hope a Conservative crazy doesn't enter the race like Tim Donnelly or Travis Allen. Hell, I wouldn't put it past either of them to run again

Cox was actually some sort of Trumpist, at least got endorsed by the God Emperor. In the end it likely doesn't matter, Newsom will demolish any Republican.

Cox started out promoting himself as a "Jack Kemp Republican" and a "different kind of Republican", while also trying to ignore Trump as much as he can (https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2017/03/with-1-million-donation-wealthy-gop-businessman-john-cox-formally-enters-ca-governors-race-110150).

It wasn't until Travis Allen entered the race and challenged Cox that he felt forced to move more to the right. If the "different kind of Republican" shtick was working, the CA GOP wouldn't have felt pressured to get Allen out of the picture and have Trump endorse Cox within a month of the primary (Essentially negating his whole message).

Likewise, I think Faulconer is gonna have a hell of a time campaigning from the center-right and will be forced to pivot when GOP voters see him more as an establishment-friendly RINO.

Though as you said, it won't matter because Newsom is gonna win by double-digits.

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Not sure if this has been brought up, but it's possibly worth noting. The California State Senate Republican caucus replaced their staunchly pro-Trump minority leader Shannon Grove with the more moderate Scott Wilk.

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/01/20/trump-backing-california-legislator-ousted-as-gop-caucus-leader-1357484

This loser literally supports Affirmative Action. What a joke.

The only people who care/cared about Prop 16 are people outside of California.

And the only prop California voters had any clue about was Prop 22 (Gig drivers) and maybe the dialysis one. Everything else was just another question on the ballot.

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https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-23/recall-newsom-effort-qanon-antivaxxer-extremist-ties

LA Times: Recall Newsom effort has ties to far-right movements, including QAnon and virus skeptics

As the pandemic continues to shutter businesses, close schools and upend lives in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has become a target of angry frustration for some, driving a grassroots effort to recall him from office. What once started as a pipe dream is beginning to look like a political threat for the Democratic governor.

But a Times investigation found that recall campaign leaders, seeking to capitalize on the darkening public mood, allied with radical and extreme elements early on to help collect signatures. Those included groups promoting distrust of government, science and medicine; peddlers of QAnon doomsday conspiracies; “patriots” readying for battle and one organization allied with the far-right extremist group, the Proud Boys.

The recall gave those fringe factions a higher profile and a shared villain. They helped energize the campaign with large and often inflammatory rallies over masks, in support of Trump and against the election they falsely say was stolen from the former president — ripe venues to harvest petition signatures.

Many supporters of the recall are not extremists and may not be aware of the far-right groups involved with the effort. But with the violent insurgency at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, organizers are grappling with the consequences of their alliances. They now insist the extremists don’t represent the values of the recall movement but continue to associate with them, amid a national debate about how far is too far when it comes to winning in politics.

“Do we have to denounce everybody that is involved to move it forward?” the official proponent of the recall drive, a retired sheriff’s sergeant from Yolo County named Orrin Heatlie, asked The Times. “Or do we just move forward and ignore those other elements?”[...]

We shouldn't be surprised However, this was the quote I wanted to focus on:

[Randy] Economy said more than 1.2 million Californians have signed the petition to remove Newsom. As of Jan. 6, state elections officials said 723,783 signatures have been turned in by the recall campaign and of those, 485,650 have been verified.

According to Ballotpedia & the CA Secretary of State websites, the petition drive started on June 10.

So here's what we've got in the last 7 months. The last update was January 6:

Valid signatures needed for recall: 1,495,709
Signatures self-reported by the petitioners: 1,200,000+
Signatures officially turned in: 723,783
Verified signatures: 485,650
Valid signatures: 410,087
Valid/Verified signature rate: 84.4%

Signatures turned in per month: 103,398
Verified signatures per month: 69,379
Valid signatures per month: 58,583

They have a month and a half left on the deadline (March 17). I'll make another update the next time the CA Secretary of State does one, but something tells me there won't be a recall question anytime soon.

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Pour one out for the scantron machines if we have to go through another statewide recall...
/snip

Cruz Bustamante.

Now that's a name I've not heard in a long long time.

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I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

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I guess I'm a skeptic in that I don't think there'll be a recall question. They've got quite a bit of ground to make up signature-wise in the next 40-50 days. They're gonna need a bit more than 1.5 million for cushion.

I understand why you would think this. As the cash flows in and the pool the circulators gather signatures from gets bigger, validity rates will probably go down somewhat. But this is going to be very close, and people on both sides are acting like it will be close

I certainly think so. This thing is gonna go down to the wire and I wouldn't be surprised if it clears the hurdle or not.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZavalaA/status/1353569666212401152

In case anybody needed evidence that this is 100% about politics and not actually controlling the virus lol

Do you mean the Recall or Newsom doing lockdowns?

Newsom is a total idiot. He isn't liked by either side right now, he'll get re-called. Not sure who would take over but I'd assume a Democrat, ideally a Progressive one but most likely will be another establishment tool.

What evidence? There hasn't been any approval ratings this month and his most recent one (PPIC from early December) has him at 60/40 and the same +20 margin he's been at for almost the entire year.

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Is this your attempt of trying to make Chamath Palihapitiya an Atlas meme?

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The other day I came very close to signing the recall petition when it was rumored that Newsom may be changing the metrics for the (already messed up) vaccination effort. If he goes through with it, I want him gone and I don't care who takes over...

...Who would you like to see take over?

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Just popping in to say that Kounalakis has absolutely no profile and would not be the "mainstream Dem" choice in a recall election.

I see her name popped up on Atlas quite a bit as a rising California star and I don't really know why. Shes made absolutely zero impression as Lt. Gov and would have no voter base at all as a statewide candidate.

Jennifer Siebel Newsom feels more like the Lt. Gov than Kounalakis.

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Some thoughts regarding the recall, which I see falling short in either signatures or removing Newsom.

So if we assume the signature effort will succeed and a recall will be held in November, that gives

1. Outside of Falcouner & Cox, who've already started exploratory committees, which other Republicans can step up and prepare for both a November & a 2022 run? For that matter, how would they be able to govern if they'll be campaigning nonstop for over a year?

2. Since this is a largely GOP effort, who's to say Newsom is recalled and the voters replace him with another Democrat? Are we to assume that if Newsom is recalled, it'll be because of incredible GOP turnout & pathetic Dem turnout?

3. It's gonna be really interesting to see if there's any kind of conflicting messages among pro-recall voters. For example, Republicans supporting it due to anti-lockdown/vaccine reasons vs Democrats supporting it because Newsom isn't going far enough with the lockdowns & vaccine distributions.

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I'll laugh so hard if Republicans spend all this time & energy getting rid of Newsom, but the voters pick someone like Ro Khanna or Ted Lieu as his replacement.

Again, I'm very fascinated by the conflicting messages that may come from this. Who'd win out more, the anti-vax Republicans upset at how far the lockdowns have gone or the pro-vax Democrats upset at how soft the lockdowns have gone?

Either way, 2022 is gonna be a very interesting gubernatorial primary if Newsom is recalled. Couldn't he just run again months later? There's been plenty of council members down here who were recalled and won their seats back 1-2 years later.

And yes, I'm also perplexed at why they're doing this now instead of waiting for the 2022 elections. I'll quote The Nooner in saying that this is like "evaluating a general's performance at the darkest days of a war that is won".

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I knew Newsom would suck in office but this is something else. I feel vindicated!

What exactly is the problem with Newsom? I think California's problem is mainly too high cost of living and the homelessness crisis. His pandemic management could be better from what I read, but there are worse governors on this. I feel like Jerry Brown was by far the best governor in America in recent years.

I'm a little perplexed as well at how Newsom is getting dragged about compared to other states & Governors.

The only reasons I can come up with is the rather lax recall procedures & CA Republicans eagerness to go the recall route as of late.

Only 20-25% of California Trump voters are needed to trigger a statewide recall. I'm a little concerned this will be the norm for every Democratic Governor going forward.

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And yes, CA will elect another Republican governor one day.

And WY will elect another Democrat governor one day.

Not that bold of a take to make.

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Personally, I would implement instant run-offs in case of a successful recall.

Yes, it could prove to be overwhelming should 100+ candidates run like in 2003. But I'll be pissed if John Cox's pisspoor 38% in 2018 turns into a successful 38% in 2021.

Though it'd probably be simpler to have a top-two runoff within 90 days with the Lt. Gov presiding until then.

Either way, Dems should pass recall reforms within a year. It's ridiculous that they didn't think to update it after Prop 14 passed.

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PPIC
January 21-31 (Last poll: November 4-23)
1,703 California residents (English & Spanish)

Newsom Job Approval

All Adults
Approve:  54%  (-4)
Disapprove:  36%  (-4)
N/A:  10%  (+9)

Likely Voters
Approve:  52%  (-7)
Disapprove:  43%  (+3)
N/A:  5%  (+4)

Basically, his approvals have fallen back down to his pre-COVID levels. PPIC's survey in early January 2020 had him 51-34 among all adults & 49-42 among likely voters.

And if you wanna compare recall to recall (despite the obvious differences in the electorate), Davis' PPIC approvals in February 2003 were 33-60 among adults & 24-72 among likely voters.


https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

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In the Berkeley poll aren't his  approvals below pre covid levels? Also, I'd rather trust the poll with 10 times the number of takers, that was still conducted over the same period.

I take it you're not a believer in "throw it in the average"?