CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[President Johnson]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

Too bad Jerry Brown is so old and term-limited. I wish he could come back.

[Mike Thick]

Kounalakis, Ma, and Yee have all kindasorta (jokingly? who knows) expressed interest in Gov runs before. I'm tempted to say Yee has the most profile just because she's been around the longest, but none of them have close to the profile Gavin or even Villaraigosa had last time.

Let's be honest, a row official probably couldn't pull it off. You need to look to congress and the mayors to find someone with a plausible shot at victory.

This is an interesting reflection of how Democratic politics here have changed over the past few years. For a while, the conventional wisdom was that you needed a background winning statewide to have the money/connections to compete, with the possible exception of big-city mayors like DiFi/Riordan/Wilson. Now some of the Congressmen have a national fundraising base and/or widespread name rec, and all the row officers are pretty anonymous. Close to a complete inversion.

pretty sure he still has an active PAC, if I was him I'd run in the recall were it to happen. What's the downside? Unless he's planning to run for something else in the future he won't be burning bridges.

The downside is that he would be stuck for months in a grueling campaign that he wouldn't even be really trying to win. Somebody will probably have to bite the bullet and run, but I don't blame anyone who turns that down.

[Mike Thick]

Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky could run, but probably does not want to tarnish his squeaky-clean image.

Wouldn't be a bronz thread without Wayne Gretzky for [office] in [state]

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kounalakis, Ma, and Yee have all kindasorta (jokingly? who knows) expressed interest in Gov runs before. I'm tempted to say Yee has the most profile just because she's been around the longest, but none of them have close to the profile Gavin or even Villaraigosa had last time.

Let's be honest, a row official probably couldn't pull it off. You need to look to congress and the mayors to find someone with a plausible shot at victory.

What about John Chiang? He'd probably do the best job.

I'm not sure he has the profile. He's not even in elected office anymore. The only person from that lane (former row officer) who I think could do it is Becerra, but running right now would be an obviously awkward decision. Otherwise you're looking at mayors (Garcetti, Faulconer, maybe Breed, maybe Schaff) or members of congress (Lieu, Schiff, Porter, maybe Khanna, etc.)

[Suburbia]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

Too bad Jerry Brown is so old and term-limited. I wish he could come back.

Brown is old, he had his time. He should have ran for president in 2016 or 2020---he'd be good for these times.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Just popping in to say that Kounalakis has absolutely no profile and would not be the "mainstream Dem" choice in a recall election.

I see her name popped up on Atlas quite a bit as a rising California star and I don't really know why. Shes made absolutely zero impression as Lt. Gov and would have no voter base at all as a statewide candidate.

Jennifer Siebel Newsom feels more like the Lt. Gov than Kounalakis.

[Suburbia]

Faulconer is probably too moderate for CAGOP....that's a travesty...

A Republican is going to have to replicate Arnold's 2003/2006 strategy or even Poizner's 2006 strategy....it will be a stretch.....

Orange County is the key....does the moderate OC Dems behind the Orange Curtain vote for a CAGOPer??

House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy and Devin Nunes are from CA....so you will see $$$$$ poured here like crazy.

CA Republicans that can run:

Vince Fong
Kevin Faulconer
One of the OC Housewives
Aubrey Huff
Jose Canseco

[Mike Thick]

Kounalakis is especially bizarre because the vast majority of Lt. Govs have either used or attempted to use the job as a stepping stone to higher office. You wouldn't think she would want the job if she wasn't angling for Governor or something. But it just isn't happening.

[xavier110]

Just popping in to say that Kounalakis has absolutely no profile and would not be the "mainstream Dem" choice in a recall election.

I see her name popped up on Atlas quite a bit as a rising California star and I don't really know why. Shes made absolutely zero impression as Lt. Gov and would have no voter base at all as a statewide candidate.

Hell, I forgot that she was the Lt. Gov. Jennifer Siebel Newsom feels more like one than Kounalakis.

I get the sense she needs something to do and dad has $650 million and a lot of connected friends. I did not vote for her in 2018, and wish she lost.

[Kingpoleon]

I'm not sure he has the profile. He's not even in elected office anymore. The only person from that lane (former row officer) who I think could do it is Becerra, but running right now would be an obviously awkward decision. Otherwise you're looking at mayors (Garcetti, Faulconer, maybe Breed, maybe Schaff) or members of congress (Lieu, Schiff, Porter, maybe Khanna, etc.)

I’m surprised you’re not pushing Steve Westly here - seems the obvious choice for neoliberals.

[Donerail]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

There is one very obvious way to cut the income tax and nevertheless generate lots of revenue for new spending but unfortunately it involves possibly making homeowners pay taxes so it is a political non-starter for most normal pols (though maybe not Chamath?).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'm not sure he has the profile. He's not even in elected office anymore. The only person from that lane (former row officer) who I think could do it is Becerra, but running right now would be an obviously awkward decision. Otherwise you're looking at mayors (Garcetti, Faulconer, maybe Breed, maybe Schaff) or members of congress (Lieu, Schiff, Porter, maybe Khanna, etc.)

I’m surprised you’re not pushing Steve Westly here - seems the obvious choice for neoliberals.

He definitely wouldn't be a serious candidate.

[President Johnson]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

There is one very obvious way to cut the income tax and nevertheless generate lots of revenue for new spending but unfortunately it involves possibly making homeowners pay taxes so it is a political non-starter for most normal pols (though maybe not Chamath?).

Wouldn't this make the state even more expensive? Living in California is already extremely expensive, which is why some Californians are leaving for Arizona or Texas. At least it should be made sure any tax hikes don't hurt the middle class.

[Donerail]

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

There is one very obvious way to cut the income tax and nevertheless generate lots of revenue for new spending but unfortunately it involves possibly making homeowners pay taxes so it is a political non-starter for most normal pols (though maybe not Chamath?).

Wouldn't this make the state even more expensive? Living in California is already extremely expensive, which is why some Californians are leaving for Arizona or Texas. At least it should be made sure any tax hikes don't hurt the middle class.

Yes, but that’s sort of the point — if it costs more to own a house, it’s suddenly much less valuable to hold onto it as an asset. That means there’s less of an incentive to stay in your home (putting more houses on the market), less of an need to make up low property taxes with fees on new development, and — in the long term — less of an incentive for incumbent homeowners to block new developments, because there’d be a downside to overinflated property values. And if you're making up for it by eliminating the income tax, it's not much of a burden (especially for non-homeowners).

[AltWorlder]

This might be a troll, but venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has thrown his hat into the ring if Newsom is recalled

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1354104976457355265

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chamath_Palihapitiya

Color me skeptical if someone promises giant tax cuts and wants to raise teacher salaries. Where's the money supposed to come from? Radical cuts in social services? Deficit spending? That's straight out of the same voodoo economics playbook.

Oh no doubt, I'm really just tracking him because he's attempting to do an Andrew Yang "techbro with a conscience" thing, minus Yang's actual singleminded focus on an actual policy. He's basically fulfilling the Elon Musk lane, since Musk already moved to Texas and won't be running.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some thoughts regarding the recall, which I see falling short in either signatures or removing Newsom.

So if we assume the signature effort will succeed and a recall will be held in November, that gives

1. Outside of Falcouner & Cox, who've already started exploratory committees, which other Republicans can step up and prepare for both a November & a 2022 run? For that matter, how would they be able to govern if they'll be campaigning nonstop for over a year?

2. Since this is a largely GOP effort, who's to say Newsom is recalled and the voters replace him with another Democrat? Are we to assume that if Newsom is recalled, it'll be because of incredible GOP turnout & pathetic Dem turnout?

3. It's gonna be really interesting to see if there's any kind of conflicting messages among pro-recall voters. For example, Republicans supporting it due to anti-lockdown/vaccine reasons vs Democrats supporting it because Newsom isn't going far enough with the lockdowns & vaccine distributions.

[tosk]

Some thoughts regarding the recall, which I see falling short in either signatures or removing Newsom.

So if we assume the signature effort will succeed and a recall will be held in November, that gives

1. Outside of Falcouner & Cox, who've already started exploratory committees, which other Republicans can step up and prepare for both a November & a 2022 run? For that matter, how would they be able to govern if they'll be campaigning nonstop for over a year?

2. Since this is a largely GOP effort, who's to say Newsom is recalled and the voters replace him with another Democrat? Are we to assume that if Newsom is recalled, it'll be because of incredible GOP turnout & pathetic Dem turnout?

3. It's gonna be really interesting to see if there's any kind of conflicting messages among pro-recall voters. For example, Republicans supporting it because they're anti-lockdown/vaccine reasons vs Democrats supporting it because Newsom isn't going far enough with the lockdowns & vaccine distributions.

this is about the only scenario I can see the recall succeeding, or if newsom has some earth shattering scandal and ambitious dems turn on him. High GOP turnout + a significant break among democrats would be ideal for getting the recall through. I'm just curious who would win the subsequent election.

[Donerail]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

[Mike Thick]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

If he was risk adverse, he could have stopped sending his kids to school and having indoor dining with anti single payer lobbyists during a pandemic.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Faulconer breaks $1mil raised as the recall goes over 1.3 million signatures. LA Times has a story about Democrats sensing which way things are going & getting out in front by seeking to DISAVOW.

Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist who has helped run campaigns for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, said it’s accurate for the governor to brand the recall backers as highly partisan, or some as extremists. But he said that message is undercut when the left is voicing criticism too.

“I think a lot of rank-and-file Democrats see Gavin Newsom as a combination of Charlie Brown and Lucy, where he wants to kick the football but he pulls it out himself before he can do it,” Trujillo said.

This is it, I think. Gavin has undercut himself a lot over the past two years:
 - Signed AB5 so he didn’t piss off unions, and then stood by while it got gutted so he didn’t piss off the tech companies
 - Somehow managed to make restrictions both unjustifiably strict for some people at some times, which made business owners mad, and unjustifiably lenient for other people at others, which made the left mad
 - Has a pisspoor relationship with the legislature, hasn’t tried to seriously engage with them on any significant non-budgetary stuff, and seems chronically incapable of fixing this no matter how many staffing overhauls he tries

This is the problem with being chronically risk-averse because you want to run for President. If you never stick your neck out for anyone, nobody will stick their neck out for you. That’s what’s happening here.

His motto when running for Governor was “Courage for a Change.” The last time he did something courageous was allowing gay marriage when he was mayor of SF.

I mean, I’d still vote for him and against a recall, but I wouldn’t support him in a primary for President.

[Sir Mohamed]

Several of these 1 million signatures will likely be kicked out, so they need more like 2 million before March have enough valid ones. That's not too likely. I dunno why Faulconer and allies are so obsessed now that we're more than half way through Newsom's term. Just run 2022 if you think you can win (spoiler: you won't).

[Skill and Chance]

There is a ~40 day waiting period in the law from election day to certification to seating of the new governor.  If Newsom were to lose the recall, I presume Feinstein would be pressured to resign immediately and retire while Newsom could still appoint?

[VAR]

NEW POLL by UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies

More than a third of the state’s registered voters said they would vote to oust Newsom from office if the recall qualifies for the ballot, though 45% said they would oppose such a move, the survey found.

California voters were almost evenly split when asked whether Newsom has done a good or bad job as governor, a precipitous drop from September when two-thirds of those polled gave him high marks.

The poll also found that just 31% of those surveyed thought that Newsom and other state government leaders have done an excellent or good job handing the pandemic, while 23% said they have done a fair job and 43% called it a poor job.

Less than half of California voters — 46% — approved of Newsom’s job performance, a dramatic slide for a governor who was elected with a historic margin of victory in 2018 over Republican challenger John Cox and defeated a slate of Democratic challengers in that year’s primary.

The poll found that California voters were almost evenly split over whether the state’s stay-at-home orders and guidelines for businesses slowed the spread of the coronavirus, with 49% saying they had little if any impact and 47% saying that the restrictions had a major or at least some impact.

In addition, more than half of California voters polled found the COVID-19 restrictions and rules put in place confusing, inconsistent and ineffective. Still, more than half also found the actions taken necessary, science-based and decisive.

Among California voters, 36% supported recalling Newsom while 45% opposed doing so. The percentage of voters who back ousting Newsom mirrors the support for President Trump in California in the November election, when he received 34% of the vote and was trounced by Joe Biden.

The poll was "conducted online in English and Spanish last week and included more than 10,000 registered voters, with the estimated margin of sampling error being plus or minus 2 percentage points."

Source

[Not Me, Us]

Are any Democrats considering a run? I think Newsom may be vulnerable in a D vs. D runoff if there's a serious Dem challenger.