Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[patzer]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

[Skill and Chance]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

Very unlikely.  The current SCOTUS is more likely to say there is no VRA obligation for a legislature to draw any district a certain way than to actively require new ones. 

[Torie]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

No. You need 50% BVAP to trigger Gingles, plus as necessary element 2, the blacks having, due to racially  polarized voting patterns, fewer available seats than their share of the state population. The blacks are "entitled" to 5 seats in GA. They have them.

[Brittain33]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

No. You need 50% BVAP to trigger Gingles, plus as necessary element 2, the blacks having, due to racially  polarized voting patterns, fewer available seats than their share of the state population. The blacks are "entitled" to 5 seats in GA. They have them.

Which is the 5th seat?

[Torie]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

No. You need 50% BVAP to trigger Gingles, plus as necessary element 2, the blacks having, due to racially  polarized voting patterns, fewer available seats than their share of the state population. The blacks are "entitled" to 5 seats in GA. They have them.

Which is the 5th seat?

GA-07, which is claimed not to be the 5th seat, but is. No need to "gerrymander" it further to make it more black. It's a safe Dem seat, and no Dem can win it in a Dem primary unless satisfactory to a majority of blacks. Absent a white incumbent, it would nominate a black since it is substantially more black than it was. No way SCOTUS will nix it, and I doubt the Dems will challenge it, since it could easily be made more black by cross chopping Cobb and Gwinnett using territory the Pubs don't want and is aleady in Dem districts.

[lfromnj]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/targeted-by-georgia-gop-mcbath-switching-to-safe-democratic-district/OV227QR4VZCLVJNDP4ZBTHT2TY/

Mcbath to primary Bourdeaux.

[Stuart98]

Bye bye blue dog.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully McBath wins!

[wbrocks67]

Is there no chance at a court fight over the GA map then?

[Skill and Chance]

Is there no chance at a court fight over the GA map then?

Unlikely, and if there were, it would be over South Georgia. 

[lfromnj]

Is there no chance at a court fight over the GA map then?

Unlikely, and if there were, it would be over South Georgia. 

Why would there be a court fight over GA02?

[Stuart98]

Oh btw, have to post this hilarious statement in case anyone missed it.
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1462942661728423936

[Roll Roons]

There's absolutely no way she wrote that.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1463337674333466625

lol.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1463337674333466625

lol.

Why would this be illegal?  He thinks there should be fourth Atlanta black seat? 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1463337674333466625

lol.

Why would this be illegal?  He thinks there should be fourth Atlanta black seat?  

I mean you can draw a compact 4th 50%+1 AA seat in Atlanta without touching Gwinnett - just unpack  the sprawling 13th and uncrack the South/West suburban counties cut between 3/10/11/14. That's grounds for a section 2 claim right there.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/9af60f6a-d74d-44a4-96e8-462827096bef


Looks like a valid map with 5 seats at 50% BVAP to me.

[kwabbit]

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.

I wonder how the map will change in 2030. What do you expect then?

[patzer]

Both Cobb and DeKalb being the exact right size for a district is pretty cool.

Oklahoma County I believe is still the right size. El Paso County in CO was like that with 2019 estimates, but overshot them and needs a chunk taken out.

I wonder how the map will change in 2030. What do you expect then?

I feel like the 2030 GA redistricting will be pretty interesting insofar as 1) it’s fairly likely to be led by Democrats, 2) there could easily be another seat by then, and 3) Northern Atlanta could well be given both a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity district.

[Torie]

It seems very hard for many to understand the VRA. Sigh. There is nothing illegal about the map.

[patzer]

It seems very hard for many to understand the VRA. Sigh. There is nothing illegal about the map.

Sorry if I miscommunicated- not saying the current map is illegal. Saying that in 2030, if GA redistricting is under Dem control, they may decide to make a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity seat in the Atlanta area.

[Torie]

It seems very hard for many to understand the VRA. Sigh. There is nothing illegal about the map.

Sorry if I miscommunicated- not saying the current map is illegal. Saying that in 2030, if GA redistricting is under Dem control, they may decide to make a Hispanic-opportunity and an Asian-opportunity seat in the Atlanta area.

I understand. I was not referring to your comment.

[patzer]

Alright, thanks.

Here's an example of a potential 2030 map with new Asian- and Hispanic-opportunity districts; this one's fairly aggressive while remaining vaguely sensible. For demographics+district populations I simply assumed 2010-20 trends continuing for the 2020-30 period (may be a wrong assumption but the best we have). Stats are 2020 presidential. https://davesredistricting.org/join/f95da28f-d660-41a0-860c-f303258cae74

10th:
50% white, 25% Asian, 14% black, 10% Hispanic in 2020
41% white, 31% Asian, 15% black, 11% Hispanic in 2030

9th:
35% Hispanic, 30% white, 24% black, 11% Asian in 2020
37% Hispanic, 25% black, 25% white, 13% Asian in 2030

It'll be interesting to look back at this thread in ten years and see how close to the mark I am    By 2030 a map like this should be 11 safe D - 3 safe R - 1 tossup.

[_.]

-SNIP

I'm a big fan of this idea and your map, also agreeing Georgia's likely to have 15 districts
Personally, I'm a little more bullish on growth in Forsyth, which IMHO could easily be 40% Asian by 2030.

Made a new thread for 2030 Georgia Redistricting Discussion, I'll try to make a map too.