Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Stuart98]

Fair 7D-6R-1C GA map:


ATL Inset:

[Stuart98]

-SNIP-

Splitting Atlanta five ways is egregious, a good map would split Atlanta no more than once

Redrew Atlanta


New 6th would only be Lean D in 2022 (was Kemp +2 in 2018); I expect it would be Likely D at worst for the rest of the decade. New 10th is majority Black, making for 4 majority black districts in metro Atlanta and 5 statewide.

[Stuart98]

Stop putting Richmond County (Augusta) and Columbia County (Augusta suburbs) in different districts; any fair map will pair them because they're a pretty obvious CoI.

[Stuart98]

Gwinnett district wasn't safe enough, I'm guessing?

[Stuart98]

Are you trying to get rid of MTG by forcing her to run in a district with an incumbent other than her? I'm... skeptical that would work.

[Stuart98]

What software was used to make this map?

QGIS.

If in doubt, it's QGIS.

[Stuart98]

Are there any reasons Republicans might prefer an Augusta-Macon-Albany district to a Macon-Columbus-Albany district, or are we pretty certain that the configuration of GA-02 isn't going to change significantly (barring the GOP stupidly trying to destroy it entirely)?

[Stuart98]

georgia Rs more like georgia Ls lmao

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1442605253078093828

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

I wonder how McBath's proposed new 6th went in the Senate runoffs.

Something like Perdue +10, Loeffler +8.

[Stuart98]

Yeah, she gets a safe D district with this map and I think we've had enough of blue dogs in safe D districts as of late.

[Stuart98]

The map we'd get if Georgia Rs were smart:

[Stuart98]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

[Stuart98]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

They were drawn specifically to eliminate John Barrow.

[Stuart98]

No VRA argument in the north end of metro Atlanta, but that was never the area there was any question about. The VRA case would be in the much poorer southern end of the metro.

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Imagine how hardcore Democrats could gerrymander Georgia in 2031 with this in mind.

It is 100% fact that the VRA is actually a hindrance to extreme democrat gerrymanders.  Without it democrats (if they controlled the state) could draw 3 seats they could win in South Carolina. With it the most is two, and only one of them safe.

Not true; here's a (probably) VRA compliant SC map with 3 D winnable seats (though only one is safe):

[Stuart98]

Redid most of my fair GA map




There are 5 majority black districts, 1 majority minority district, and 2 more districts that are <60% white. Splits in various elections:

Senate 2016: 9-5 R
Pres 2016, LG 2018, AG 2018: 8-6 R
Gov 2018, all 2020 elections: 7-7

[Stuart98]

Sorry should’ve been more specific. You can draw a vra compliant map with three Dems seats, but without extreme gerrymandering it’s hard to create multiple safe seats for democrats.

That's more down to bad geography than the VRA; too many dems locked up in 60% R areas in Greenville, Spartanburg, and Rock Hill with no clean way to put them in a dem/competitive district (at least with 7 districts; my 11 district CRR map has a lean R Greenville/Spartanburg district).

[Stuart98]

Bye bye blue dog.

[Stuart98]

Oh btw, have to post this hilarious statement in case anyone missed it.
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1462942661728423936

[Stuart98]

One thing the Alabama situation is making me wonder: suppose, for the sake of argument, the courts rule that 4 Black districts are necessary in Atlanta. What happens then? Would Clyde and possibly Collins be cool with significantly weakening their districts to preserve the gerrymander? Would the GAGOP even consider punting to the courts like Alabama is right now? It's one thing in Alabama because the rest of the state is so red, but you've got to imagine that a special master remap of Atlanta could get dicey fast.

I feel like if the court insisted a redrawing, the Georgia GOP would probably just try to do a map that gets rid of MTG, considering she's not overly popular in the party as a whole.

I feel like MTG would win that 11th.

[Stuart98]

Been saying Georgia was the next likeliest southern state to have its map thrown out. GA-13 is just such a blatant black pack and making a new majority black district is so easy.

[Stuart98]

Georgia Republicans should look at this as an opportunity, not a burden:


I feel much better about this map actually getting rid of MTG than I did with Patzer's map earlier, it completely fractures every part of her district (11 has the largest portion of it at 35%) while largely preserving everyone else's (Loudermilk's is the most changed at only 63.6% of his old district)

[Stuart98]

Georgia Republicans should look at this as an opportunity, not a burden:


I feel much better about this map actually getting rid of MTG than I did with Patzer's map earlier, it completely fractures every part of her district (11 has the largest portion of it at 35%) while largely preserving everyone else's (Loudermilk's is the most changed at only 63.6% of his old district)

Why would Georgia Republicans want to get rid of Greene?

The state party isn't that Trumpy thanks to Trump's poor relationship with statewide electeds and she's a clear liability for any Republican in the state who's running in a competitive seat. If you've gotta get rid of a house R (and they'd ahve to in order to comply with the court order) then she's clearly the one to get rid of.

[Stuart98]

Made things even worse for her:

[Stuart98]

Made things even worse for her:

Wouldn't Large Marge just carpetbag down to your District 3 and try to stick around? It has a lot of her old seat.

3 has 31% of the old 14th, but it's still 69% Drew Ferguson's seat. If MTG wins any of these seats then there's just no getting rid of her, period.

[Stuart98]

With the LA ruling I suppose it is likely GA gets an another black Seat?

There was a separate ruling in GA requiring the same, thus the flurry of posts here recently.

yes, but to add, the LA ruling has no or almost no bearing on the GA case. One is under the authority of the 5th, the other the 11th. The only connecting thread is that Milligan and subsequent Supreme Court orders means that both are forced into a position they did not expect to be in, and can't easily wiggle out of.

The 5th is more conservative than the 11th right?

Yes. Also, Georgia did not appeal the decision, for some reason.

Probably saw the writing on the wall with all the other rulings lately. The legislature simply complying with the court order gives them a chance to contain the damage; they have a lot more to lose from a court imposed redraw than AL and LA did, if the courts redraw it all Biden probably wins a majority in all three maps.