Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Roll Roons]

My take on what a 9R-5D map might look like.
A new AA majority seat has been created in Metro Atlanta. The 4th and 6th pull out of DeKalb, making way for the 7th, which leaves Gwinett for the most part. The 4th pulling out of DeKalb forces it to make that population in Gwinett instead. The rest of Gwinett is placed in a redrawn 10th that is safe Republican. In the process, the districts of McBath and Bourdeax are profoundly altered. The 6th should flip back Republican, with it gaining all of Forsyth and Hall, and the 10th should be unwinnable for Bourdeax, with almost 300k living outside of Gwinett in blood-red counties and the Gwinett part of seat excluding the vast bulk of the most Biden-voting parts.
Under these lines the 11th is 60-39 Trump; the 6th is 58-40 Trump; and the 10th is 58-41 Trump. The 14th is exactly the same except now it has all of Pickens and part of Gilmer. The 8th now runs from the Rochdale county line to Florida.
In southern GA, the 2nd has been redrawn to become less Democratic while still majority black. The Biden margin has been reduced from 13 points to 8.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/0016a8b3-68cb-4a24-bf23-c836863b358a

The 6th would probably be fine, but there’s a small chance it would flip at the end of the decade, especially if Forsyth County were to continue the trend line it’s been on since 2012.

I think there's even a chance that the 7th and 11th wouldn't be safe by the end of the decade. There is basically nowhere in the country where trends are worse for Republicans than the Atlanta metro.

[Roll Roons]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

[Roll Roons]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Definately. GA-14 has a lot of R votes to shed, and can take in northern Cobb without putting it in immediate danger. Infact, I'd argue if the GOP doesn't, they're probably making a dummymander.

My 14th district goes all the into Fulton County. This hypotheicical disitrct went from Trump +32.2% in 2016 to Kemp 27.5% in 2018 to Trump 22.1% in 2020. A swing of 10.1% in just 4 years!

Wow. With how quickly and drastically the whole Atlanta area is changing, imagine if her district actually becomes winnable for a Democrat by the end of the decade.

[Roll Roons]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

Does the average constituent of that district actually pay much attention to redistricting?

[Roll Roons]

Paulding definitely has crummy demographic developments for Republicans though, as it's sort of an extension of Southern, not Northern, Cobb. It's becoming quite a bit more diverse, and we've seen how starkly Atlanta suburbs can change in even a decade.

It also swung 11 points left between 2016 and 2020.

[Roll Roons]

Wait... Lt. Gov Duncan and Senator WHAT?

They were smart to concede GA-07. GA-06 will probably go R in 2022, though it could be concerning later in the decade if the ATL metro keeps zooming left.

[Roll Roons]

Personally, I would have given GA-11 all of Bartow and maybe some of those rural counties from GA-14 while pushing the GA-11's Cobb precincts into GA-14. That would keep the former safe while unpacking the latter and hopefully making you-know-who more vulnerable in a primary.

[Roll Roons]

Someone clearly objected to drawing the northern mountain CDs into Atlanta.  That's my biggest takeaway from this, even if it gets tweaked significantly. 

My guess is that the GA GOP's donor base largely lives in places like Buckhead, Cobb and north Fulton and they don't want to be represented by lunatics like MTG or Andrew Clyde.

[Roll Roons]

Assuming GA-07 is turned into a vote sink, I really don't see why Bourdeaux would be especially vulnerable in a primary. Not every white Democrat in a diversifying seat will be caught napping like Joe Crowley.

[Roll Roons]

Smart. A fourth Dem seat in the Atlanta suburbs is pretty much necessary.

[Roll Roons]

Here we go:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1460989010927628289

[Roll Roons]

DRA link: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::bb849587-97f6-4d99-afe1-cd8dc3b4e69d

GA-06 is obviously a Safe R flip in 2022. But I do wonder if it could be vulnerable down the line, especially if (god forbid) Trump runs and wins again. Same with GA-11.

[Roll Roons]

There's absolutely no way she wrote that.

[Roll Roons]

This is probably the cleanest 5 black majority district map I can make.  I think the southern Cobb-Douglas-southwest Fulton seat (GA-11 on here) is mandatory in some form or another, the other three Atlanta AA seats just fall into place from that one.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a32d6e19-2cb6-4638-a0db-87879cba867f





I also did some small tweaks to GA-2 to make it >50% Black CVAP.

Your GA-06 is a good contender for the fastest left-trending seat in the country.