Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia

The redistricting discussion around Georgia has already started, so I need to catch up with my analyses. I suggest someone edit their earlier post to add a link, a quote, or just a copy paste of this analysis, so that this can become the official Georgia thread.  Georgia to a lesser extent is a mini-Texas when it comes to redistricting, except Georgia lacks the neat flowchart of potential maps. The state is rapidly getting blue, and PVI is an awfully flawed indicator. Both states face the problem that a bunch of areas that may need to be in blue seats are red, and a bunch of areas that are red right now may become democratic locks in in next decade. It’s hard to remember that Gingrich represented the same territory as McBath. Therefore, what maps may come depend entirely on the opinions of those at the table and how cautious or ambitious they may desire their lines to be.

Link to 2010 Atlas Discussion

Redistricting History

Georgia redistricting has always been a closed-door affair, be it under the dixiecrats or the GOP. This is despite the fact that the democratic base since the turn of thee century has been African Americans, a group that is booming off the success of Atlanta. Looking back to the year 2000, democrats had small majorities in both legislative chambers and controlled the gubernatorial office. Despite this, the majority of the congressional delegation was republican. The two new districts Georgia was to be apportioned that decade offered a golden opportunity to state democrats and they took it even though their demographic data was flashing red lights. Displaying their desperation, the dixiecrats ended up passing a map that would rival Texas’s “Dixiecratic desperation map.” Seats tentacled every which way to maximize the potential of their disconnected democratic voters. The two new seats were drown to be easy dem pickups (one as an AA seat), the central Georgian Macon seat lost committed republicans, and the 11th became an unholy tentacle which could have elected a dixiecrat (but never did). Satisfied with their work, the dixiecratic legislature passed the map over the heads of howling Republicans who called for fair maps and preservation of counties.

Georgia's Districts from 2000 to 2004, Credit to Wikipedia

Every political party that draws heinous districts eventually receives it’s comeuppance, and the dixiecrats received theirs in 2004. In a process quite standard to our ears today, plaintiffs challenged all of the maps passed in 2000 (believe it or not there were worse lines on the house and senate map) and got all three thrown out. The state appealed to the feds rather than make an effort at a redraw in its allotted time, and when Washington said no a three-judge panel selected a special master. The masters map kept many of the districts bases as they were, such as the cut of Savannah, but eliminated most democratic excesses. The map no longer looked like spaghetti and the GOP now had serious chances at the central Mcon and Augusta seats. They just had the problem of the 2006 and 2008 waves, which preserved both districts vulnerable dixiecrats. The 2010 Republican wave was required to finally reap the sowed potential and flip the central seat bringing Georgia to a 9-5 delegation.

Georgia's Districts from 2004 to 2010, Credit to Wikipedia

It was now the GOP’s turn to have uncontested control of redistricting.  Going into 2010 Georgia desired to pick a fight with the Obama DOJ regarded VRA preclearance (remember that?). All the power players on republican redistricting side were from the growing north of the state, suggesting that both the new 14th seat would slide into the region, and the present GOP incumbents in the region would get priority treatment. After several public sessions, the GOP decided to go with their partisan gut and carve off as much as they could chew. Barrow’s Augusta seat was carved into two new GOP seats. Even though he would barely hold the seat in 2012, Barrow couldn’t survive inertia and lost in the 2014 midterms. The four remaining democratic seats took in more African Americans, cracking what remained of the party into oblivion. Despite the scheming of Republican cheerleaders, the DOJ would never have approved a map that decreased African American seats as the state gained both AA pop and a congressional district. The new map was neat, and anticipated the incoming dixiecratic realignment in a manner that favored the Incumbent GOP.

Georgia's Districts since 2010, Credit to Wikipedia

Since 2011

The GOP map was more or less perfect in 2010. It passed Obama’s DOJ but also drew away Barrow. It packed the areas moving towards the democrats into seats already solidly blue. The problem for the Republican Party was that it was a perfect map drawn for 2010. Atlanta is booming, and in the  span of five years community demographics in certain suburban areas have changed, drastically. New developments and old owners cashing in on a high housing market has led to most notably Gwinnett flipping from a solidly McCain to safely Democratic in ten years. It helps that most of the voters moving into Atlanta are minorities or northern whites, seeking to get their own piece of the city’s opportunity.

We all know how this story ends. Suburban rejection of Trump paired with in-migration of favorable demographics led to the supposedly safe 6th returning marginal result. Trump’s appointment of Price to the cabinet opened up the high-profile Ossoff vs Handel special, which resulted in a lot of bluster and a marginal Republican hold. Then a year later McBath kicked out Handel, Abrams nearly won statewide, and Woodall found himself on the front lines. At the same  time, the South of the state got redder: dixiecratic whites continue to die and African Americans crave the  opportunity Atlanta offers. Woodall has retired, and the Democrats now have their sights set of the Peach State in 2020.

2021

So, who wants to take a shot at Georgia for 2020? It’s legitimately one of the hardest states to redistrict because there are so many variables up in the air right now. This is the case in most redistricting battlegrounds, but Georgia and her big brother Texas have the most uncertainty.

Perhaps the best place to start with is the “Known Knowns.” First, Georgia has to have at least four African American seats. The state AA population and pop distribution demanded four seats in 2010 and the AA numbers have only gone up. Any attempt to pack AA voters into 60% AA seats would not even survive till 2022, it’s that blatant. There is a reason why in 2010 the Georgia GOP made their AA packs “combo” seats with AAs majority, non-AA minorities, urban liberal whites, and GOP areas that would not be GOP for much longer. Secondly, you cannot cut Bishop’s seat without a fight. Now, the GOP would love to carve up Bishop and certainly can, the Southwest has the Republican votes for it. But, one would have to go before the court and make the case that cutting his seat did not decrease AA opportunity. It isn’t protected by perfect VRA compliance, but it is shielded by the state’s demographic percentages. Atlanta would need to provide much more AA opportunity than it currently does in order to compensate for the cut. Third, the GOP legislators in the growing north and shrinking south of the state like to keep the communities intact and play to their strengths, it’s what happened in 2010 after all. Finally, the fourth “Known Known” is that serious bacon-stripping seems to be going out of fashion as data becomes readily accessible. Unless your name is Madigan it’s far easier to try and pack your opposition in rather than hideously crack everyone to bits.

Beyond that though an entire pandora’s box of districts opens up. What’s the GOP goal: to hold on to total control or to hold on to their potential maximum? How much can Atlanta growth be accounted for and put in blue seats so that it doesn’t endanger the GOP in the future? Will there be an attempt to stretch an AA seat from Atlanta to the belt so as to account for future demographic change? Will the 2nd get cut or extended? Is 2020 going to deliver results that send the GA Republicans into panic mode – it very well could. Whose base needs to be preserved and whose gets cut up? Your guess is as good as mine when we have no leads and all the information is locked in the future.

What’s Left to Decide

Basically everything. Firstly, how many incumbents are the Democrats going to have? The calculus shifts when there are six instead of five thanks to Woodall’s retirement and McBath’s pickup. How blue is the Metro in 2020? While the 2016 bombshell may be a once/twice ever occurrence, people are still moving in seeking opportunity. Buildings are still being built and homes are still getting sold to a new generation of buyers. If the Metro’s even more Blue than in 2020 then the calculus shifts again. How scary are the toplines going to be for Georgia Republicans? If there is realistic fear because the democrats keep coming close or even win the state at some level, the Maps are going to end up more lenient than maps drawn from a position of strength. What about the State Assembly? I doubt it flips, but the potential is there. What about demographic growth? Shifts in the both the Minority and the White population towards the Atlanta metro is going to cause districts, particularly in the south, to reshuffle their lines. Almost everything is up in the air here and almost everything is possible.

[Oryxslayer]

Georgia
Perhaps the best place to start with is the “Known Knowns.” First, Georgia has to have at least four African American seats.

Incorrect: 3 Metro ATL plurality/majority-black districts will be all that's required barring major changes. Bishop's seat is not protected and was instead designed as a vote-sink in the 2011 map to ameliorate concerns about another Jim Marshall winning in what would certainly be a nominally-Republican South GA district at the time (given South GA's Democratic tilt for many offices then) in any set of maps that weren't obviously gerrymanders (the GOP didn't want to take risks with DoJ approval, plus they were pretty confident about Barrow falling in 2012). Additionally, I'm fairly confident the black voting age population percentage in his district (which was a plurality in 2011) has only decreased since then. McBath's seat also obviously isn't protected given the race of the candidate means nothing and it's a majority-white district.

As far as I know, simple statewide demography is not a guarantee for proportional or near-proportional congressional representation under the VRA. If so, then AL and LA both should have 2 majority-black Democratic districts. If every county in GA had 30% black population, then you would likely have no black-majority districts mandated under the VRA.

I don't disagree with anything that you are  saying. However, here is the problem. If the GOP tries to cut GA-02 they end up with an instant lawsuit that they will likely lose because they tried to cut an AA opportunity seat while the states AA population is going up. The way to survive such a case is to increase AA opportunity overall, likely with a fourth seat in Atlanta. If they don't compensate than all the evidence from VA on how 50% isn't required for AA seats will likely come down here to bite the GOP in the ass. This is how GA-02 is shielded. It's a roundabout process but you either have the current three in Atlanta and the second stays (likely eating more of the belt) or a fourth AA gets added to Atlanta via the new lines and pop growth.

FTR, statewide demographics are a guideline for how many VRA districts you need on a map, you should have around said percentage of your state be VRA seats. In almost every circumstance what districts are possible to draw for minorities are a bit under their overall percentage, so you Usually need I dunno, 37% to justify 33% of the delegation. And that is also influenced by factors like turnout and racial voting, so it varys from case to case.

[Oryxslayer]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
Here's the best bet for GA GOP.  4 black plurality districts in Atlanta, 10 white majority safe R districts.  The least safe red district is Trump+16, but it's downstate.  Inelastic.  Both suburban Northern Atlanta districts are about Trump+30.  It isn't beautiful, but isn't nearly as bad as MD or the 2012 NC map.  

Continuing from our discussion in another thread, there are some states where you can use 2010 DRA pop data and get away with having okay district lines. GA, NC, FL, TX, etc are not those states. The pop distribution has shifted to a large degree in favor of certain regions, in this state that is Atlanta. You don't even need the partisan data really, since Race = Partisanship outside of a few easily identifiable Suburbs/City Centers/Athens.

For example, this has four 50% or (49.x%) AA seats in Atlanta using the mid-decade data, along with a fifth new Dem pack in the Diverse Part of Northwest Gwinnett.  

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, I agree that the consensus stated is how Georgia would be drawn if 2016/18 was the Redistricting period. It's similar to TX in this way. However, Georgia is one of multiple states where 2020 could frighten the party with the pen. If 2016 trends, especially the ones based on migration and race rather than voter flips (like in GA and TX for D's, Upper Midwest for R's) end up intensifying, then the parties will have to concede more packs. In Georgia, this would mean more Blue in Atlanta then the 10-4 consensus.

[Oryxslayer]

Carving up one district is getting rid of the district, even if you create another district in another part of the state. It isn’t about Bishop, it’s about the voters he represents, and if you “move the district to Atlanta”, it no longer represents those voters in rural Georgia.

However one can make the argument that the belt no longer has the concentration of AA voters needed to have an opportunity district. I tend to disagree, but it is an argument that can be made if the GOP moves against Bishop. The counties down here are not flipping red because AA voters are now considering the GOP, they.are flipping because the AA pop is shrinking faster than the white pop. We are only a few years away from the Georgian belt being just the urban counties and a straggler or two. A district that goes from Albany to Augusta isn't compact  But the AA pop is concentrating hard into the Atlanta metro. Since the state AA pop is overall growing, a fact magnified by the shrinking belt, that is the ideal place for a new AA seat.

[Oryxslayer]

edit: this got posted after I started typing

However one can make the argument that the belt no longer has the concentration of AA voters needed to have an opportunity district. I tend to disagree, but it is an argument that can be made if the GOP moves against Bishop. The counties down here are not flipping red because AA voters are now considering the GOP, they.are flipping because the AA pop is shrinking faster than the white pop. We are only a few years away from the Georgian belt being just the urban counties and a straggler or two. A district that goes from Albany to Augusta isn't compact  But the AA pop is concentrating hard into the Atlanta metro. Since the state AA pop is overall growing, a fact magnified by the shrinking belt, that is the ideal place for a new AA seat.

As I said above, it's still very easy to draw a black-majority district covering Albany, Macon, and Columbus.  The African American population is declining in that area, sure, but the white population is shrinking just as quickly.

Also there's definitely not enough population to warrant a fourth black majority seat in the Atlanta metro, attempting to force one would be an unconstitutional racial gerrymander

Only thing I have to say to this is that you don't know the demo's of your state . I didn't even try that hard and I got four AA seats in Atlanta between 49% and 52% AA, more than enough to lock in the candidate of choice. I also even had some AA pop left over to go with the Hispanic and Asian groups of Gwinnett as a 5th Dem pack, but that is just a feature of this map, which was drawn as a "protect our GOP ATL seats for a decade" style map. The Atlanta metro is the main destination for all those AA's leaving the Midwest and the Belt, the city is booming.

And this is with the 2016 block data. I expect it to be even more AA when the e new census data is unveiled.

[Oryxslayer]

Carving up one district is getting rid of the district, even if you create another district in another part of the state. It isn’t about Bishop, it’s about the voters he represents, and if you “move the district to Atlanta”, it no longer represents those voters in rural Georgia.

If it's helpful, Idaho Conservative, think about if the Florida Democrats deleted Diaz-Balart's seat and replaced it with a Latino majority district in Orlando.

Difference is both the Miami and Orlando Latino geographic groups in Florida are growing. The belt is shrinking, and Atlanta is not just covering the losses, it is adding AA voters in droves to the state.

[Oryxslayer]

There's also a chance that Congress expands the House by 100 districts and implements MMDs, but that's not the world as it exists today - nor is it even likely based on current events and reality. If/once the courts begin deliberating on tangible changes to the VRA, then you might have a point to make in such a discussion (and believe me, there's plenty regarding the VRA that I think is either outdated or insufficient). However, this is about what happens in 2021 - the likelihood of a major change in either redistricting policies or the VRA between now and next year is small enough to completely dismiss such discussion presently.

This is my perspective as well. If the VRA looks to be changed, then standards will be changed. At least for 2020 there isn't enough time for any major Redistricting changes other than ballot commission questions, so that is the only hypothetical that deserves exploration in specific states. The facts are the fact, the ink is dry.

This is also why I keep pushing against GA02. It's against every GOP instinct to leave such a district in place, so it's likely they find a way to do it for 2020, even if their map ends up thrown out four years later. With that in mind we should be exploring ways they can justify cutting the district, because they will be making those justifications  next year, no matter how flimsy. So far, the best justification that I have seen is the significantly expanding minority power in the AA boomtown (4/5 D ATL seats) and hoping that such a move can balance out the slashed belt seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Since some mentioned GA-02 (if kept with a similar composition) being a swing district by the end of the decade despite being a VRA plurality/majority black district, I now wonder if something similar has ever happened.

Has a white Republican (with ~10% black support presumably) ever won a VRA black district? GA-02 seems like it would be extremely inelastic and titanium D despite the low margins

He wasn’t white, but Anh Cao, who pretty clearly lost the black vote (by huge margins — Jefferson was getting 90+% of the vote in the heavily black precincts of NOLA) but won anyway by consolidating the non-black vote. Special circumstances, of course.

Edit: The ability for such a thing to happen has mainly to do with differential turnout. In urban VRA districts, the Republicans normally have no chance because the non-black voters in urban districts aren't monolithically Republican. On the other hand, unlike in rural VRA districts, in urban VRA districts the non-black voters on the whole often have much better turnout than the black voters, so there's more chance of the actual on-the-day electorate being majority non-black, and, if there is a perfect storm of all of the urban non-black voters voting for a Republican, as happened for Cao, they can win. In a rural VRA district, the significant turnout differential in the Republicans' (or, more specifically when comparing to urban VRA districts, non-black voters') favor does not exist as strongly, but, at the same time, in a rural VRA district (in the Deep South), the Republicans don't need extraordinary circumstances for the non-black vote to be 90% in their favor. It doesn't seem wildly implausible that the Republicans could win a VRA district GA-02 in a Democratic midterm in 2026 or 2030, or maybe even 2022, when Democratic turnout was down a bit and Republican turnout up a bit.

The dropoff between Obama and Cao in regards to total votes was immense. Only 67K total votes in the congressional race, whereas the Obama/McCain vote total more was in line with the nation. So, like you said, perfect storm fueled by corruption that turned Dem voters away. This is type of election is an excellent indicator why there is no simple universal VRA standard. In some areas like MS AAs need to be packed for AA voters to safely express their voice, in others like urban TX and VA, 42% will suffice. The AAs did express their voice in 2008 by dropping off the race, signaling their disapproval of both candidates, a demonstration that the VRA seat worked as intended.

[Oryxslayer]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f320c87d-0c0f-4ee8-ae06-bd4eb4b95aed
A Georgian Experiment. The Second helps pack Atlanta while still being a SW VRA seat.
1 - R+8.62, Trump+15.1
2 - D+15.93, Clinton+35.2, (51.3% Black)
3 - R+16.36, Trump+27.5
4 - D+33.32, Clinton+70.6, (54.0% Black)
5 - D+31.47, Clinton+67.4, (54.3% Black)
6 - R+20.88, Tump+29.2
7 - R+21.92, Trump+41.8
8 - R+9.38, Trump+18.1
9 - R+20.95, Trump+33.5
10 - R+18.16, Trump+33.7
11 - R+19.72, Trump+29.3
12 - R+9.03, Trump+18.4
13 - D+24.20, Clinton+52.9, (54.2% Black)
14 - R+18.34, Trump+30.5

That GA-02 is definitely going to fail the 2012 NC-01/VA-03 test, and while the VA-03 case reached SCOTTUS during the 4-4 deadlock in 2016, Roberts concurred in striking down the 2012 version of NC-01 as a racial gerrymander.  The better bet for getting a 10-4 map upheld should be just explicitly moving the 4th VRA seat to Atlanta than trying to connect the current GA-02 to it. 

VA-3 was about 57% Black and qualified as a Black pack.
Meanwhile my GA-02 is actually (slightly) less black than the current GA-02, so there's absolutely no reason to think the courts would strike it down. The arm to Atlanta is a partisan gerrymander, taking in white suburban Dems in Gwinett, not a racial gerrymander packing black voters.

It's a argument over the reasonability of such a seat, not over it's BVAP. Remember, there have been  some fairly extreme AA districts drawn throughout the VRA's history, mainly in LA or NC. In both cases, the courts found that the AA communities were to distant to demand a VRA seat. In the case of LA, the squiggle along the northern border of the state was destroyed the 90s. At the time AA's needed a high AA% to get elected over dixiecrats, and such a seat was deemed impossible to create outside of NOLA. So, dixiecrats smugly used the northern AA's to make more competitive seats for white dixiecrats. NC is more recent, with both the 13th and the 1st get remapped mid-decade. Both seats went to extreme lengths to pack AA's, and the court found that the same results were achievable with more compact seats.

One has to remember that GA went through something similar 15 years ago when they tried to abuse AA voters democratic loyalty to it's maximum possible extent.



Essentially, what would happen in your map is something similar. It would be challenged on the basis of the first Gingles test rule: The racial or language minority group "is sufficiently numerous and compact to form a majority in a single-member district." Your seat would violate to compact part of that rule, and the lawyers would bring forward evidence that you could get similar results  with a more compact belt-focused seat. They would probably win considering the precedent set by NC-13, which would be turned to in the case of such a seat.

[Oryxslayer]

I tried a fair map that of course would not happen in 2021. Unlike the maps posted previously, I tend to prefer COI style maps when fair, rather than swing/competitive maps.  

When following these guidelines, you can only keep 3 of (majority) Fulton, DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinett whole - one has to be cut or else the northern and southern districts will get weird. So I tried something different, in Gwinett, rather than do the Cobb+Douglas with a cut Cobb seat. These guidelines also encourage making the Belt AA seat performing via the full Belt COI. 4 AA majority seats and the three non-AA seats in Atlanta are diverse and mixed.




GA01: 54/43 Trump, R+6.7
GA02: 55.5/42.5 Clinton, D+6.4
GA03: 68/29 Trump, R+20.7
GA04: 74/23 Clinton, D+22
GA05: 80/16.5 Clinton, D+29.2
GA06: 51/44.5 Trump, R+9.5
GA07: 52/45 Clinton, R+0.7
GA08: 69/29 Trump R+19.6
GA09: 73/23 Trump, R+29.8
GA10: 49/46.5 Clinton, R+3.8
GA11: 69/28 Trump, R+22.1
GA12: 55/43 Trump, R+6.9
GA13: 65/32.5  Clinton D+14.2
GA14: 74.5/22.5 trump, R+26.95

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D, doesn't include a few thousand people in the SW for population purposes.
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

http://Reasonable enough, although I'd favor a map that looks more like this:


4 Safe D (Fulton/Douglass, Clayton/Fayette/South Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett)
1 Likely D (Cobb)
1 Tossup (Milton/Douglas)

You should probably move the Gwinett, Cobb and Milton seat each a tier towards the GOP at least by rating, considering their base partisanship. Your Milton seat is +9 Trump, Your Cobb seat is +1 Clinton, and your Gwinett  seat is +6 Clinton. That looks like Lean/Likely R, Tossup, and Lean/Likely D to me.

[Oryxslayer]

You should probably move the Gwinett, Cobb and Milton seat each a tier towards the GOP at least by rating, considering their base partisanship. Your Milton seat is +9 Trump, Your Cobb seat is +1 Clinton, and your Gwinett  seat is +6 Clinton. That looks like Lean/Likely R, Tossup, and Lean/Likely D to me.

Honestly, I think Abrams/Kemp numbers are more relevant for Georgia.

Milton is Kemp+4
Cobb is Abrams+9
Gwinett is Abrams+15

These districts are zooming left incredibly fast and not moving back. I'm comfortable with my ratings. Also, I adjusted my map a little because I realized my red district was less than 50% black, but that doesn't impact the three aforementioned districts.

Didn't realize GA added the gov numbers. Anyway, since they did, I would personally be using an average of 2016 and 2018 because while yes, the seats are zooming left as democrats moved in, turnout disparity was also a factor.

Using history as ones guide for instance tells us that 2010 was a good guide for future GOP strength, however it would take a while to fully emerge. Lowered Dem turnout (worse than 2018 GOP, buts that's because the coalitions are different) allowed a glimpse at what was to come.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?

I think what they're assuming is that in a 6 D ATL map, there would still be a D leaning Southeast Georgia seat (the current GA-02). Thus it would be a 7-7 map, and they find that unfair.

Whether you see this as wrong or right of course is purely based on ones own opinion. If you are focusing solely on a single state, it might be better to correct for partisanship, if that is your goal. However, if you are doing a nationwide remap than one should probably observe those multi-county and lower-level county COIs, since geographic advantages (dems in parts of South, Southwest, and New England, GOP in Midwest and Florida) generally cancel each other out over all 435 seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly the only part of this map that actually appears to be an effective GOP gerrymander is, surprisingly, the 2nd District. It's designed so it's juuuust safe enough to reliably re-elect Sanford Bishop, thereby adhering to VRA case law, but when Bishop retires it becomes a tossup and definitely winnable by a Republican. From a strictly technical point of view it's honestly kind of clever: they've managed to create a mandatory black VRA district that will probably elect a Republican in at least 1 of the next 5 elections with little-to-no risk from a lawsuit against it

Apparently GA-02 isn't majority black, and given the block voting in that regions, this version of GA-02 won't pass the VRA smell test. Will have to grab more AA's from the eastern Belt, so yet another reason why the map seems so slapped-together, and if it is the direction perused (unlikely), then things will have to change.

[Oryxslayer]

Have conservative white people stopped moving to Georgia? If so, when did they stop?

No, it's just that Atlanta is the African American cultural and economic mecca, so voters who move into the state have a higher likelihood than in other states to be partisan democrats. If transplants we're 100% democrats then the GOP margin would have fallen much quicker than the slow linear decline in every election from 2010.

[Oryxslayer]

Would the GA Dems be able to try to sue for this map? Under the VRA grounds that adding an extra compact black-plurality district is possible and therefore must be done.

Note: you can draw 7 reasonable districts majority-minority by CVAP, and I don't think the dem map actually does this lol. Atlanta incumbents want to keep lots more AAs than reasonable, Bordeaux doesn't want too many minorities, and McBath still wants a seat in the Milton area.

Also, in keeping with tradition, the parts of ATL international in both counties must be in GA-05, despite GA-05 not needed to go south from Fulton at all.

[Oryxslayer]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

I'll give you one reason: getting a second seat south of Atlanta where African Americans are the leading group by all metrics and is a preforming majority minority coalition seat.

[Oryxslayer]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

I'll give you one reason: getting a second seat south of Atlanta where African Americans are the leading group by all metrics and is a preforming majority minority coalition seat.

My map doesn't even maximize the minority percentage there. It's 49% white. That percentage could be lowered by adding Liberty County (though it would make the seat less compact).

Yeah, but I know you can do it from experience while keeping it compact...well as compact as a district along the border can be. Among other things, you add Liberty, and parts of the Belt like Sparta while removing white areas like Bulloch.

[Oryxslayer]

Was a single black seat in South Georgia even cut?

Yes. The one held by a Republican who consistently wins crossover votes (151) got cut - part with Albany, part with the white seat to its north.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-redistricting-brings-opportunity-for-political-payback/OWKNXTYE2ZCUBFJFZVTYB3FU4M/

Infighting. Georgia Rs decided to force 75% R areas in Coweta with 90% black areas in Fulton in the state house to get rid of a state rep.Even Democrats didn't demand this. Really incredible to waste a district of 75% R areas to give to Democrats.

“The Speaker of the House couldn’t buy me off or beat me at the ballot box, so I am unsurprised he would gerrymander to remove the most conservative Republican in the state from office,” Singleton wrote on Facebook. “This is a shocking betrayal of GA conservatives that is far worse for Coweta than even the Democrat proposal was.”

Singleton has made his opposition to Ralston, a Republican from Blue Ridge, a centerpiece of his political identity, criticizing him for his use of legislative leave. An investigation by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action News found that Ralston, a criminal defense attorney, frequently delayed criminal cases by claiming they interfered with his legislative duties.

Notably they justified this move yesterday after releasing an ammeded map that changed a handful of districts but not Coweta as forced upon them by the VRA. This is both understandable - south Fulton has 90% minority precincts that if left compact and not sent southwards will become packs - but also clearly done with targeted intent - Clayton county is not sent southwards in a similar manner despite similar demographics. It therefore is likely to remain so, since a lot of R's and D legislators appear to appreciate the move. However yesterday's forum featured a lot of GOP voters (in addition to the expected Dem and minority groups) critiquing cracking in not just Coweta but also the Blue trending areas like Cobb, Gwinnet, and Forsyth. So we might be in for a substantial remap.  

[Oryxslayer]

The above poster, Mr. Leecannon, is on to something. Middle to upper middle class white (Asians too, whatever) Democrats (of which there are a substantial number) in the prosperous suburbs of Atlanta have no problems whatsoever voting for a black in either Dem primaries or the General election. Provided that a seat (e.g. and i.e. GA-07 as drawn here) is safely Dem because there are enough of such bourgeoisie white and Asian Dem professionals, Gingles does not apply at all to this particular patch of real estate, and thus the VRA has no application whatsoever. The fact that blacks are very thin on the ground but nevertheless elected a black in the existing GA-06 with similar demographics is dispositive evidence that racists are equally thin on the ground in the area. Case closed. It's time to move on. Any VRA case that is filed here should be not only dismissed but found to be vexatious and  sanctioned, with the lawyers subject to discipline.

Yes, GA-06 is not protected. Maybe a separate court case challenging another Atlanta seat would change it, but it was majority White after the 2020 census so a dilution claim would be tenuous.

The better claim that I expect to be made is section 2 on GA-13 and the surrounding Cobb/S Suburb region. 4 and 5 got unpacked and are Whiter, but 13 is even more of an AA pack on the map and >85% minority. It's unwieldy geographically, four south suburbs and Cobb counties are cracked, and we get new seats like GA-14 taking in minority voters from the region to prevent another minority seat. The goal would be to unpack the 13th by having it take in a bit more of the outlying south suburbs like Fayette, and then create a new majority AA seat in the west suburbs/ATL/Cobb. I'm not sure what seat would become said new seat, probably GA-11, but the resulting shifts would probably push GA-06 further beyond the pale. McBath could run in this potential western seat cause it would no doubt include Marietta, but it would have almost none of her former seat.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1463337674333466625

lol.

Why would this be illegal?  He thinks there should be fourth Atlanta black seat?  

I mean you can draw a compact 4th 50%+1 AA seat in Atlanta without touching Gwinnett - just unpack  the sprawling 13th and uncrack the South/West suburban counties cut between 3/10/11/14. That's grounds for a section 2 claim right there.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1498672939973197827?s=20&t=wjYSs8lGpCYeUX_w...

Judge basically agrees with plaintiffs that there should be a fifth AA seat/Sixth minority seat in the state, based west of Atlanta, but that Kemp's delays and the Alabama Purcell order basically preclude work this cycle. To that end, there are other suits brought by different GA minority organizations, that did not ask for the PI, which are scheduled for late this year and next year.

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens here now?

Watch the case Georgia State Conference of the NAACP (and Georgia Coalition for the People’s Agenda and Galeo Latino Community Development) v. Georgia

The plaintiffs drew a favorable judge but they will still probably get pushed upwards to the next court tier before any result. Arguments concerning Summery Judgment were herd on May 30th.

The case touches more than Congressional lines, but if you wish to read the complaint, congressional topics are on PDF pages 47 through 57. Main section 2 claim, which would be supercharged by Milligan, concerns how GA-13 could be split in two and a new BVAP seat could emerge West of Atlanta, but instead hyper-packing in GA-13 and GA-04 and cracking across the region including GA-03, GA-09, GA-11, and GA-14 to prevent this seat from being drawn.