Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Mr.Phips]

Not sure why so many dems think Kemp and republicans won't go all out in Georgia. This an 11-3 map based on 2018 Governor results. Districts 1-4 actually fit great with 2018 population numbers and probably won't trend much compared to the Atlanta area: https://davesredistricting.org/join/efdd6266-17d2-42c3-a4b8-21a217dc07aa

GA-1: Kemp+12
GA-2: Kemp+12
GA-3: Kemp +14
GA-4: Kemp+14
GA-5: Abrams+64
GA-6: Kemp+22
GA-7: Kemp+21
GA-8: Abrams+66
GA-9: Kemp+23
GA-10: Kemp+34
GA-11: Kemp+26
GA-12: Kemp+20
GA-13: Kemp+22
GA-14: Abrams+72

You can easily get rid of McBath with this map and it's unlikely that this will fail in 10 years.

Again, how is the 52% black GA-02 not protected under the VRA?

[Mr.Phips]

Not sure why so many dems think Kemp and republicans won't go all out in Georgia. This an 11-3 map based on 2018 Governor results. Districts 1-4 actually fit great with 2018 population numbers and probably won't trend much compared to the Atlanta area: https://davesredistricting.org/join/efdd6266-17d2-42c3-a4b8-21a217dc07aa

GA-1: Kemp+12
GA-2: Kemp+12
GA-3: Kemp +14
GA-4: Kemp+14
GA-5: Abrams+64
GA-6: Kemp+22
GA-7: Kemp+21
GA-8: Abrams+66
GA-9: Kemp+23
GA-10: Kemp+34
GA-11: Kemp+26
GA-12: Kemp+20
GA-13: Kemp+22
GA-14: Abrams+72

You can easily get rid of McBath with this map and it's unlikely that this will fail in 10 years.

Again, how is the 52% black GA-02 not protected under the VRA?

According to DRA it's only 49.4% black and I'm not aware of that being true.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia's_2nd_congressional_district

Even if it is 49.4%, i would think it is still protected.  If not, the. IL-07 (only 46% black) also isn’t protected and Dems would be able to unpack it to help shore up Lauren Underwood.

[Mr.Phips]

How on earth is the 2nd not VRA required?

It is as its 52% black.

[Mr.Phips]

I decided to give an uninvited "lecture" on RRH, I thought perhaps, however delusional, some might be interested in reading if here. So below is my copy and paste of what I posted.

A poster the other day suggested that the Georgia “Pubmanderers” draw 4 black CD’s in the Atlanta area, and dismantle the rural black SW corner CD. I thought I would test that suggestion out. The Atlanta part of the equation works out quite well, and may even hold up for a whole decade – maybe. The second prong of the equation, the Pub snatch of the SW corner CD, however does not. It does not because although it can be drawn, its lines would be illegal, and tossed by the courts, and it is not a particularly close case in my opinion. Below explains the basis for my opinion.

The first step is how many CD’s need to be performing black, before the VRA no longer mandates additional minority performing CD’s. If it is only 4 CD’s, then the SW corner CD can be dismantled, and the plan fully executed. If it is 5 CD’s, then the VRA is still in play to police the CD lines. The answer turns out to be 5, not 4 CD. Blacks are about a third of the population of Georgia now. Thus, out of the 14 CD’s, under the VRA their allocatable share of the 14 CD’s is 14/3 or about 4.7 CD’s, which must be rounded up to 5 CD’s, if 5 “compact” CD’s can be drawn that are 50% BCVAP. In point of fact, they can (particularly when the racial percentages in Georgia are updated from the DRA figures which are circa 2015).  And yes, one of the 5 CD’s is the rural SW corner CD; like this, nice and compact:

https://i.imgur.com/uMuXm9O.png

So, the map the Pub gerrymanderers’ may want (the map to the right):

https://i.imgur.com/rHHHwCY.png

is illegal under the VRA.

And thus, they will need to draw the map to the right above, and even with that map, if the SW corner CD were not a performing black CD, its lines had better not be gerrymandered in any way, to wit, where there are reasonable choices of adjacent territory to take in, one always chooses the more black, and more Democratic territory, which is what I did. Trump 2016 still carried it by a couple of points, but Trump 2020 probably lost it by about the same margin. If still not performing, arguably one might need to chop in to Macon, or duplicate the lines that I drew (the first map that I linked above) that get the CD up to 50% BCVAP. Trump 2016 lost that iteration of the SW corner CD by 10.5% by the way.

I have seen a number of maps drawn on RRH that I think are very vulnerable to being struck down under the VRA. If one is going to gerrymander in a way that puts in play minority voters to their detriment, the VRA’s byzantine rules need to thoroughly mastered on a very granular level.

The talk of dismantling black majority districts like GA-02,black plurality ones like FL-05, and even ones with a large black minority like MO-05 is interesting because a district held by an African American has never actually been dismantled.  Even dismantling MO-05 would cause quite the outrage among black leaders in the state.

[Mr.Phips]

I could definitely see the 7th, 6th, and 11th all being not safe R come 2030. I'd be a bit shocked if they still are safe by then, tbh.
Thankfully for Rs, all three should be a 100% safe GOP seat each in 2022, 2024, and 2026. A reliable 9R-5D in a state that is voting 52-53% Dem on average is quite a good result for Republicans.

I can see Ds winning Supreme Court elections and getting the GOP maps struck down by 2026-28.

The thought of Ds undoing GOPmanders through the State Supreme Court didn't pass my mind, so thanks for bringing that up.
How feasible is that in practice, though?

Hard. All 9 are currently conservatives, and GA has non-partisan court elections which incumbents hardly ever lose.

I expect a serious effort probably flips the court by 2030 or 2032.

Maybe?  I think this would be a viable strategy in Texas where the justices run in explicitly partisan elections and they would be able to undo a gerrymander in less than a decade if the state moved their way like we saw in PA and NC (hardly a given now for TX), but non-partisan court elections make it much harder.  Think of the 3 Chiles appointees staying around until 2019 in Florida or the moderate-left bent of the Kentucky supreme court that continues to this day. 

The best solution would be the Supreme Court just redoing the 2015 case and declaring all redistricting commissions unconstitutional. That way the Dems can do what they want to CA, WA, NJ, CO, VA and both sides are pretty much on even footing.

That would be an absolutely horrible precedent to lock in gerrymandering for generations, regardless of whom it would benefit in one particular cycle!  Thankfully, there's zero indication Roberts/Kav/ACB would go that far.

Yeah I don’t think Roberts and Kavanaugh would overturn precedent on the 2015 case.  Possible, but I don’t think it’s likely.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1463337674333466625

lol.

Why would this be illegal?  He thinks there should be fourth Atlanta black seat?