Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Brittain33]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
Here's the best bet for GA GOP.  4 black plurality districts in Atlanta, 10 white majority safe R districts.  The least safe red district is Trump+16, but it's downstate.  Inelastic.  Both suburban Northern Atlanta districts are about Trump+30.  It isn't beautiful, but isn't nearly as bad as MD or the 2012 NC map. 

Why do your GA-4 and GA-7 look like that?

[Brittain33]

Carving up one district is getting rid of the district, even if you create another district in another part of the state. It isn’t about Bishop, it’s about the voters he represents, and if you “move the district to Atlanta”, it no longer represents those voters in rural Georgia.

[Brittain33]

Carving up one district is getting rid of the district, even if you create another district in another part of the state. It isn’t about Bishop, it’s about the voters he represents, and if you “move the district to Atlanta”, it no longer represents those voters in rural Georgia.

If it's helpful, Idaho Conservative, think about if the Florida Democrats deleted Diaz-Balart's seat and replaced it with a Latino majority district in Orlando.

Difference is both the Miami and Orlando Latino geographic groups in Florida are growing. The belt is shrinking, and Atlanta is not just covering the losses, it is adding AA voters in droves to the state.

That distinction isn’t relevant.

[Brittain33]

As for candidates of choice, that's a very stupid metric to use, hard to calculate as well.  So minorities elected by white electorates don't count?  Absurd.  

I appreciate your perspective on this, but on the Forum we're either drawing maps for the world as it exists or is likely to exist, not the world which matches our own preferences. The metric of a community electing the candidate of its choice may seem "absurd" to you, but I think it's more absurd to consider Allen Keyes being elected by a rural white district to be a better reflection of African-American voting rights than Steve Cohen successfully winning primary after primary with African-American voter support. It's about the right of the voters, not the right of the representative him or herself.

[Brittain33]

There is an excellent chance the Supreme Court might change the standard.

Which court case are you following that you expect will make it to the Supreme Court and lead to this outcome?  

The current one basically segregates voters on the basis of race, and legally mandates a certain number of whites be placed into districts where THEIR candidate of choice won't win, like with the Texas "fajita strips". 

Yes, the history of the U.S. shows that white voters have generally not suffered from discrimination in exercising their right to vote on the basis of race that African-Americans, Hispanics, and Native Americans have throughout history, so they aren't treated the same.

[Brittain33]

“Should white voters be protected by the VRA?” is potentially an interesting question, but if so it merits its own thread. Since it isn’t a factor in Georgia’s next redistricting it just serves to distract on this thread.

[Brittain33]

instead of derailing this thread further what would you guys say to a thread on this board specifically about the Voting Rights Act and its impact on redistricting

Better yet, a mod can send all of Idaho Conservative’s posts predicated on a complete revamp of Voting Rights law to the What Ifs? board where he can set up whatever scenario he wants. I agree that it’s messing up the Georgia discussion.

[Brittain33]

Given how no one has drawn a white Dem district (is one even possible?); the number of Dem seats equals the number of black seats

https://davesredistricting.org/join/22ba28a4-ad53-45e7-8546-7c8a5b8bf6d7

Here's a map of five Safe/Likely D seats all based in Atlanta that include 3 VRA Black districts, a majority-White Dem district (59% Obama, 61% White), and a Maj-Min district based in Gwinnett.

COI's not very intact though.

Can you check the URL? I’m getting a blank Georgia map.

[Brittain33]

Two districts linking parts of Fulton County to Tennessee is... something.

[Brittain33]

Two districts linking parts of Fulton County to Tennessee is... something.

a Trump+20 suburban/rural mix is safer than a Trump+20 district that's all suburban, due to trends.

I get it, but it’s still imaginative.

[Brittain33]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/71a9a4dc-bc35-45b2-92b7-a688debd827b
I made a State Senate map based off of the 2018 estimates.

How many districts migrate to the Atlanta area from the rest of the state?

[Brittain33]

The best solution is to combine Savannah with Augusta, but achieve a true COI by also adding Dekalb as in 1992.

[Brittain33]

Looks certain that NW GA GOPers won't stand for the region being cracked for sake of a 9-5, that's for sure.

That's a good point, and MTG has a hell of a bullhorn to use to get her way if the legislature tries to much around with her district.

What does this limitation do to some of the maximum gerrymanders we saw? GA-11 and GA-9 can sustain a lot of dilution, but only so much.

[Brittain33]

I think the Hall - Milton approach for a Republican district is an elegant solution from a statewide view, BUT what I remember from 2010 was that Hall County Republicans wanted their own district and got it with the new district created from reapportionment. I suspect they would prefer Hall to be the largest county in its own district, like it is now, rather than the smallest of 3 jurisdictions, which it would be with Forsyth and Milton.

Maybe I’m just wishcasting why an effective Pubmander won’t happen but that is my one go-to fact about Georgia’s 9th district.

[Brittain33]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

[Brittain33]

How likely is it that a certain individual who shall not be named actually gets part of Cobb?

Very likely.  GA-14 can get unpacked and pickup Dem-voting parts of Cobb to further shore up the GA-07 and GA-06 redraws. 

Is this based on anything other than seeing that such a map could be drawn? Both MTG and her constituents have said loudly they don’t want their district broken up for redistricting - she’s not looking to “take one for the team” and her constituents don’t want to be paired with inner suburbs. Not saying it won’t happen, but I think this is a factor to consider.

Does the average constituent of that district actually pay much attention to redistricting?

I don't know about the average constituent, but we are seeing plenty of evidence from other states that people in rural areas will show up at meetings and fill out feedback forms to ask to be kept separate from crowded cities and suburbs.

Here they are showing up at a hearing in Dalton, Ga.

https://acluga.org/panel-hears-requests-to-keep-14th-congressional-district-intact-push-for-transparency-in-the-redistricting-process/

https://www.valdostadailytimes.com/news/local_news/residents-call-for-voting-district-transparency-rep-greene-supporters-resist-redistricting/article_1ee80ec9-489e-533b-9b86-13f5af733ff8.html

[Brittain33]

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?

I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.

[Brittain33]

Constituents? And how much influence do you think MTG has vis a vis the Pub power structure with the pencil?

I don't know, but it's probably enough to make "Very likely" and "definitely" questionable descriptors of the inevitability of her district heading into Cobb. People seem to assume there is no force at all working against using GA-14 to soak up Dem voters in the inner suburbs. But people are already speaking up at hearings, and there are active county Republican orgs who probably don't want to share power with Cobb.

We shall see. The portion of Cobb I put in her district is a third of the population of her district,
and Trump carried that portion by 2 points, and the district by 27 points. It will not control the Pub primary, nor threaten her hold on the CD.

Paulding County would be 20% of the district, no? That would be a good base for a candidate.

I’m not nitpicking anyone’s GOP gerrymander or saying what will definitely happen.

[Brittain33]

Have conservative white people stopped moving to Georgia? If so, when did they stop?

[Brittain33]

The thing I wonder about is the Augusta district. The 12th.

It’s easy to draw that in a way that’s about 49% white-44% black, compact, without cutting into the 2nd at all and without going to Savannah/Athens. And Trump +1 in 2020.

Is that enough for a vra requirement? The south is certainly racially polarized.

No. You need 50% BVAP to trigger Gingles, plus as necessary element 2, the blacks having, due to racially  polarized voting patterns, fewer available seats than their share of the state population. The blacks are "entitled" to 5 seats in GA. They have them.

Which is the 5th seat?