Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[lfromnj]

A base for Georgia 2 and 2 areas each being 240k pop if the GA GOP actually wanted to carefully sneak through a winnable GA2nd.












Adding purple means the district will likely trend to get more black over the decade. Adding red will keep the district barely majority black for now but stagnant with regards to black population. If the GOP does get a swing down to the high 80's for Democratic black percentage it could come into play. Note the 2016>2020 trends. Purple itself is almost like Fayette county.
Adding purple makes the district swing exactly 3 points left from 2016 to 2020. It would likely be Safe D all decade. Adding red meanwhile makes it swing 0.2 points right.
Overall whites are leaving the black belt area all together while blacks are generally heading either towards Atlanta or towards the Purple areas.

This is also why it will be relatively hard to make a safe NC01 all decade. The GA02 with Purple is honestly relatively Urban. 525k of the population would live in Columbus/Macon/Albany/Warner Robbins . Meanwhile NC01 would really only have Pitt  and Rocky Mount which is around like 250k?.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The most Asian CD possible in the state of Georgia.
link

[patzer]

A base for Georgia 2 and 2 areas each being 240k pop if the GA GOP actually wanted to carefully sneak through a winnable GA2nd.

Adding purple means the district will likely trend to get more black over the decade. Adding red will keep the district barely majority black for now but stagnant with regards to black population. If the GOP does get a swing down to the high 80's for Democratic black percentage it could come into play. Note the 2016>2020 trends. Purple itself is almost like Fayette county.
Adding purple makes the district swing exactly 3 points left from 2016 to 2020. It would likely be Safe D all decade. Adding red meanwhile makes it swing 0.2 points right.
Overall whites are leaving the black belt area all together while blacks are generally heading either towards Atlanta or towards the Purple areas.

This is also why it will be relatively hard to make a safe NC01 all decade. The GA02 with Purple is honestly relatively Urban. 525k of the population would live in Columbus/Macon/Albany/Warner Robbins . Meanwhile NC01 would really only have Pitt  and Rocky Mount which is around like 250k?.

That sort of map would definitely be helped by the shrinking of the rural black belt. Very good point.

[lfromnj]

Also honestly knowing the Georgia GOP keeping Georgia 2nd not majority black is probably an accident.

Why would they? It's not a requirement to be majority-black (GA-2 wasn't in 2011, either; 49.5% BVAP), they've kept the district roughly equivalent in size despite losing 10% of its population over the past decade *while moving it 5+ points to the right*, no other adjacent seats are in danger of flipping now and therefore wouldn't require black packing, and with the overall trends of the region, they have a much better chance than some think of picking the seat up next time it's open and/or there's a great year for the GOP with somebody who's not 74 year-old incumbent Sanford Bishop.

My guess?
Its mostly a least change besides GA06/GA11/GA07. They didn't even particularly look at partisanship at a micro level as you can see from the John's Creek Milton split for GA06.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I made this kind of weird competitive mander-ish map.

GA-1: Trump +0.39%
GA-2: Biden +0.38%
GA-3: Trump +35.03%
GA-4: Biden +38.54%
GA-5: Biden +67.38%
GA-6: Biden +14.32%
GA-7: Trump +5.22%
GA-8: Trump +37.27%
GA-9: Trump +55.19%
GA-10: Biden +1.19%
GA-11: Trump +3.47%
GA-12: Trump +6.43%
GA-13: Biden +67%
GA-14: Trump +43.07%

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08272338-44f8-4c00-a5ef-3512fe822e1f

[Spectator]

Republicans are so screwed next redistricting cycle. Even under compact districts that arguably pack black voters in my map, Warnock still won 31/56 state senate districts, and most marginal seats are trending bluer.

[Devils30]

Republicans are so screwed next redistricting cycle. Even under compact districts that arguably pack black voters in my map, Warnock still won 31/56 state senate districts, and most marginal seats are trending bluer.

Georgia feels like something that a court will invalidate in 2026 and the Dems will gain 3 seats in 2028.

[It’s so Joever]

Bold of you both to assume we will still have proper elections in 2026 and 2028.

[Idaho Conservative]

Also, hot take: Bourdeaux isn't "safe" in this newly-proposed 7th. I suppose it depends on what you consider safe, but just look at these figures:



In a presidential year Democratic primary, this is likely closer to a 50% black, 25% white, 25% other electorate. In a midterm primary, it'll skew more white (for now) - but with each passing year, the demographics in Gwinnett continue to accelerate against whites at an almost unbelievable speed.

If the right black candidate and/or enough black voters decide they want a more representative representative, then goodbye Boring Bourdeaux. Of course, the non-black constituencies might also band together behind a more progressive Latino or Asian candidate and have a similar chance at primarying her.

If a voter in Antonio Delgado's district in NY decided to vote for his White opponent for a more representative representative, is that something you'd support?

You are assuming I endorse this kind of behavior (I don't). It is what it is - but it is a reality, there is precedent for it, and that's what I'm commenting on here.

But the real question is: what happened to the 11-3 GOP map you kept saying would easily happen?

sure sounded like you endorsed it, saying a candidate would be more representative due to race.  I never said 11-3 was most likely.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I tried to make the most fairest State house map as possible and it ended up as 93 R - 87 D (2020 President) composition, not too bad tbh. I also allowed editing as well so that you can tweak it if you want.

It took me several days to make a new fair map with the 2020 census data. This time my GA House map is a very fair 90D-90R Split based on the 2020 Prez data. I also have 2018 GOV and 2016 Prez data for the Atlanta Metro seats to how much it has shifted in the past 5 years.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fd2699d1-5522-4c7a-9d69-b1dde9a07eb9

2020 Prez


2020 Prez


2018 Gov


2016 Prez

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I was able to make a fair 29D-27R Dem majority State Senate based on 2020 Prez numbers. I also have 2016 Prez, 2018 Gov and 2020 Prez up close for the Atlanta Metro seats to see how rapidly politcally that area is changing.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ad5e72bb-3682-47c2-b7cc-27a6dcb00e36



2016 Prez


2018 Gov


2020 Prez

[windjammer]

Adam,
Does GA favor more the democrats or the republicans ?

[Brittain33]

Have conservative white people stopped moving to Georgia? If so, when did they stop?

[Oryxslayer]

Have conservative white people stopped moving to Georgia? If so, when did they stop?

No, it's just that Atlanta is the African American cultural and economic mecca, so voters who move into the state have a higher likelihood than in other states to be partisan democrats. If transplants we're 100% democrats then the GOP margin would have fallen much quicker than the slow linear decline in every election from 2010.

[lfromnj]

The funny thing is that Atlanta itself is gentrifying quite quickly. It isn't even majority black anymore!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have conservative white people stopped moving to Georgia? If so, when did they stop?

No, it's just that Atlanta is the African American cultural and economic mecca, so voters who move into the state have a higher likelihood than in other states to be partisan democrats. If transplants we're 100% democrats then the GOP margin would have fallen much quicker than the slow linear decline in every election from 2010.

If you had to guess, how Dem in % terms are transplants to the state?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The funny thing is that Atlanta itself is gentrifying quite quickly. It isn't even majority black anymore!

There is an ongoing demographic shift, with blacks moving farther south and liberal whites becoming more and more numerous in Atlanta itself.
Keisha Lance Bottoms' successor as mayor could well be white at this point. 2017 was close.

[Adam Griffin]

Have conservative white people stopped moving to Georgia? If so, when did they stop?

Not entirely, but the flow rapidly and immensely shifted around the time of the 1996 Olympics.

People forget that once upon a time, mass migration to the South wasn't friendly to the Democratic Party. It still isn't in some places.

Much of the anti-Dem shift in GA attributable to native residents wasn't felt until the turn of the century, through an obvious combination of New Deal voters dying off and others defecting from the Democratic Party. This is why the bottom seemingly fell out all at once: a double-whammy of sorts.

From 1980-1995, there was a huge influx of out-of-state residents (I call this "the first wave"), who were disproportionately white tax-evading conservative Yankees. Despite similar historical patterns, this is why the suburbs of ATL became the most GOP-friendly areas of the state in the mid-1980s onward, with their effects moving outwards as the years progressed (this is why Cherokee and Forsyth combined shifted 15 points to the GOP between 1992 and 1996, making them practically single-handedly responsible for flipping GA to Dole). These people are also the biggest reason Democrats lost the gubernatorial election in 2002, with their influence still being responsible for GOP wins all the way through 2012-2014. Over the past 15 years or so, you'll find these types largely colonizing mountainous areas of NE Georgia rather than the suburbs or exurbs of ATL, buying up relatively cheap touristy property/tacky log cabins and making what would be a solidly-GOP area in today's terms even more so.

Let me reiterate: without "the first wave" of conservative Yankee migrants between 1980-1995, it's quite possible that GA would have more closely resembled NC throughout the 2000s to the present, never losing control of the Governor's Mansion. The rural losses would have been mostly offset by "the second wave" of migration.

"The second wave" wouldn't begin until the late 1990s, which is the kind of demographic infusion people are familiar with in the modern-era (blacks returning to the new "black mecca", along with young college-educated liberal whites and other minorities). Given voter participation rates among these groups, it's not surprising that their effects weren't felt until the mid-2000s. All of this is why Democrats went from winning comfortably to losing by 20 points in just a few years, only to rebound quickly to respectable losses a few years after that.

[Хahar 🤔]

In addition to Adam's points, it's also worth noting that the largest factor in bringing Republican voters to places like Arizona and Florida and South Carolina today is mostly absent in Georgia, which is a generally unappealing retirement destination.

[Stuart98]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

[lfromnj]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

[wbrocks67]

It's really too bad b/c that 7-7 map is completely fair, especially given that GA is now a 50/50 swing state.

[Stuart98]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

They were drawn specifically to eliminate John Barrow.

[lfromnj]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

They were drawn specifically to eliminate John Barrow.

Sure just like IN01 was drawn to eliminate Joe Donnelly in 2010.
Doesn't mean it's really a gerrymander in the true sense of the word because its a relatively logical district although it does dip a bit down south into redder rurals.

2010 GA was a bit awkward for South Georgia but its pretty much perfect by 2020 pop to just use the Fall line so GA12 doesn't have to dip down South anymore and South Georgia can perfectly fit into 4 districts.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

What are the demographics of 12? It might be able to be competitive with enough rural black turnout