Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

What are the demographics of 12? It might be able to be competitive with enough rural black turnout

Here you go.

[patzer]

Would the GA Dems be able to try to sue for this map? Under the VRA grounds that adding an extra compact black-plurality district is possible and therefore must be done.

[Oryxslayer]

Would the GA Dems be able to try to sue for this map? Under the VRA grounds that adding an extra compact black-plurality district is possible and therefore must be done.

Note: you can draw 7 reasonable districts majority-minority by CVAP, and I don't think the dem map actually does this lol. Atlanta incumbents want to keep lots more AAs than reasonable, Bordeaux doesn't want too many minorities, and McBath still wants a seat in the Milton area.

Also, in keeping with tradition, the parts of ATL international in both counties must be in GA-05, despite GA-05 not needed to go south from Fulton at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

They were drawn specifically to eliminate John Barrow.

Sure just like IN01 was drawn to eliminate Joe Donnelly in 2010.
Doesn't mean it's really a gerrymander in the true sense of the word because its a relatively logical district although it does dip a bit down south into redder rurals.

2010 GA was a bit awkward for South Georgia but its pretty much perfect by 2020 pop to just use the Fall line so GA12 doesn't have to dip down South anymore and South Georgia can perfectly fit into 4 districts.

What definition of "South Georgia" are you using?

[lfromnj]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

They were drawn specifically to eliminate John Barrow.

Sure just like IN01 was drawn to eliminate Joe Donnelly in 2010.
Doesn't mean it's really a gerrymander in the true sense of the word because its a relatively logical district although it does dip a bit down south into redder rurals.

2010 GA was a bit awkward for South Georgia but its pretty much perfect by 2020 pop to just use the Fall line so GA12 doesn't have to dip down South anymore and South Georgia can perfectly fit into 4 districts.

What definition of "South Georgia" are you using?

The Fall line pushed a bit north to avoid splitting the core of the black belt between Macon and Augusta and also including Columbia county. Seems like a fairly simple definition that is more or less now exactly 4 districts.



By 2020 population this is about 2k short of 4 districts. By 2010 it was about 180k above 4 districts. The Georgia GOP mostly followed this line but they had a choice of removing 180k and chose to remove the black belt counties between Macon and Augusta. They also removed a bit of the Northern portion of Muscogee county as well. Something had to be removed in the end and none of them were  good.
 

By 2020 population it is pretty much perfect.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Georgia Dems have released a proposal.

Shores up Bordeux, keeps the 6th intact, divides the current 9th between the 10th (renumbered to 9th) and 14th. Creates a new plurality black district anchored in Cobb.

Surprised they didn't do much about the gerrymanders in Augusta and Savannah.

Because those are fair districts? GA01 is a bit ugly because Kingston wanted some military bases IIRC.

They were drawn specifically to eliminate John Barrow.

Sure just like IN01 was drawn to eliminate Joe Donnelly in 2010.
Doesn't mean it's really a gerrymander in the true sense of the word because its a relatively logical district although it does dip a bit down south into redder rurals.

2010 GA was a bit awkward for South Georgia but its pretty much perfect by 2020 pop to just use the Fall line so GA12 doesn't have to dip down South anymore and South Georgia can perfectly fit into 4 districts.

What definition of "South Georgia" are you using?

The Fall line pushed a bit north to avoid splitting the core of the black belt between Macon and Augusta and also including Columbia county. Seems like a fairly simple definition that is more or less now exactly 4 districts.



By 2020 population this is about 2k short of 4 districts. By 2010 it was about 180k above 4 districts. The Georgia GOP mostly followed this line but they had a choice of removing 180k and chose to remove the black belt counties between Macon and Augusta. They also removed a bit of the Northern portion of Muscogee county as well. Something had to be removed in the end and none of them were  good.
 

By 2020 population it is pretty much perfect.

I've drawn a fair map on basis of what the southernmost collection of counties in the state that together total the quota for 4 CDs could be.
I will be posting shortly.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

The GA Dem proposed map is 7-7. There's a new safe Dem seat in NW part of Atlanta.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/georgia/dem_proposal/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This was drawn without much regard for partisan data. It is quite fair. 7 Biden and 7 Trump districts. DRA says proportionality is at -0.05% - which is a happy accident. CoI was also considered, and I have dedicated exurban seats to the SE, and SW. The 6th seeks to pair together a string of suburbs in the northern part of the metropolitan area. I sought to use the Ocmulgee-Altamaha river as a boundary but found myself having to go south of it for both population equality and compactness reasons.
I've also discovered that DeKalb and Cobb are perfect for CDs under 2020 data, which is wonderful.
DRA link

[lfromnj]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

If this was a Democratic gerrymander, why is Athens stuck in a Safe R district? Why isn't the 5th unpacked? Why is the 6th turned from a Biden to a Trump district?
"Clear Democratic gerrymander" this does not mean what you think it means.
Also, pairing Columbia and Richmond counties is no better for CoI than pairing it with Chatham. They are geographically close but extremely different, and they are even in different counties, which is to say, they really have nothing special in common. Columbia and Richmond have extreme differences in race, income, and partisanship. It'd be like saying Forsyth and western Atlanta are the same CoI. They aren't. At least not on a basic level.
While Richmond County is much closer to Columbia than Chatham geographically, in most other characteristics it's closer to the latter.
I can draw an alternative arrangement for 8 and 1 if you like, though.

[Oryxslayer]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

I'll give you one reason: getting a second seat south of Atlanta where African Americans are the leading group by all metrics and is a preforming majority minority coalition seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

I'll give you one reason: getting a second seat south of Atlanta where African Americans are the leading group by all metrics and is a preforming majority minority coalition seat.

My map doesn't even maximize the minority percentage there. It's 49% white. That percentage could be lowered by adding Liberty County (though it would make the seat less compact).

[Oryxslayer]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

I'll give you one reason: getting a second seat south of Atlanta where African Americans are the leading group by all metrics and is a preforming majority minority coalition seat.

My map doesn't even maximize the minority percentage there. It's 49% white. That percentage could be lowered by adding Liberty County (though it would make the seat less compact).

Yeah, but I know you can do it from experience while keeping it compact...well as compact as a district along the border can be. Among other things, you add Liberty, and parts of the Belt like Sparta while removing white areas like Bulloch.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

No it isn't fair to put Augusta with Savanah. No map should have that. It is a clear Democratic gerrymander that completely disrespects the COI's of both areas. Splitting Coastal Georgia into 3 different district is absurd when it perfectly fits into 1.

There is no COI the 2 cities share besides "I Like John Barrow"

I'll give you one reason: getting a second seat south of Atlanta where African Americans are the leading group by all metrics and is a preforming majority minority coalition seat.

My map doesn't even maximize the minority percentage there. It's 49% white. That percentage could be lowered by adding Liberty County (though it would make the seat less compact).

Yeah, but I know you can do it from experience while keeping it compact...well as compact as a district along the border can be. Among other things, you add Liberty, and parts of the Belt like Sparta while removing white areas like Bulloch.

Warren, Washington, Jefferson, Richmond, Burke, Jenkins, Screven, Effingham, Chatham, Bryan, and Liberty counties can form a whole county district that is 46% white, 43% black, and is Biden+11.3.

[patzer]

This was drawn without much regard for partisan data. It is quite fair. 7 Biden and 7 Trump districts. DRA says proportionality is at -0.05% - which is a happy accident. CoI was also considered, and I have dedicated exurban seats to the SE, and SW. The 6th seeks to pair together a string of suburbs in the northern part of the metropolitan area. I sought to use the Ocmulgee-Altamaha river as a boundary but found myself having to go south of it for both population equality and compactness reasons.
I've also discovered that DeKalb and Cobb are perfect for CDs under 2020 data, which is wonderful.
DRA link

You inspired me to make a map on similar grounds (keeping counties whole wherever possible; keeping 4 districts in south Georgia), but I decided to also maximize competitive seats.

Here it is (on 2016-2020 composite election data). 10 majority-minority districts (everything but 1, 8, 9, and 14), but several of them only barely so.



I'd say a majority of those seats could easily go either way.

[LAB-LIB]

So why did they give Bordeaux a safe seat but not McBath? I guess the Republican logic is that they don't like having a black woman represent a white traditionally Republican district like GA-06. Whereas at least Bordeaux is white, so from their perspective she is more tolerable. But if voters in GA-06 get too used to voting for McBath, next thing you know they'll be voting for Stacey Abrams as well, and can't have all those black women running around with so much power.

I think they think that Lucy McBath would be a formidable candidate statewide and they're trying to shut down her career while they can.

It's possible that if this map passes we could see a little back and forth- Karen Handel winning the district back in 2022, only to lose it again to McBath in 2024.

Karen Handel losing in 2024? Please. She's unstoppable. Forget about the so-called "Young Guns," she's the future of the Republican Party.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1453423404158234626?s=21

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1455629864917159942?s=20

[lfromnj]

Was a single black seat in South Georgia even cut?

[Oryxslayer]

Was a single black seat in South Georgia even cut?

Yes. The one held by a Republican who consistently wins crossover votes (151) got cut - part with Albany, part with the white seat to its north.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1455673858103599112

Name a better duo and cracking college counties using Jackson County.

Anyway sinks all but 1 dem seats in the Atlanta metro, adds a new sink as well. Cracks the rest and makes one last dem seat Trump +4 2020.

No change in South Georgia. Any signal they would be going after Georgia 2nd can be put to rest after viewing the Albany district not including Lee County as you can make a 54% black, biden +4 district.

[Nyvin]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

[lfromnj]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything Thomas would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

[Skill and Chance]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything he would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

If it gets close later this decade, what do the decisive seats for control look like?  Would the house or senate be easier to flip?  For the senate, let's assume a Dem LG tiebreaker in that kind of environment.   

[lfromnj]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything he would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

If it gets close later this decade, what do the decisive seats for control look like?  Would the house or senate be easier to flip?  For the senate, let's assume a Dem LG tiebreaker in that kind of environment.  

House flips first I assume as you can't reach as far. Anyway one seat is basically gone by 2024 at Trump +3 in 2020 so dems will have 2024.There is one iffy Savanah suburban seat but I think that would be seat 29 or 30 for dems.

Anyway there are 3 stripped Cobb seats with areas in Cherokee and Bartow.(37,32,56). All around 56% Trump. Finally one seat in outer Gwinett and some further areas which is 58% Trump. I would say the senate falls in 2028 or 2030 while the house falls in 2026.