Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So I was messing around with a georgia map and I accidently created a Warnock/Perdue district... which if you had asked me I would have said was impossible but here it is. It kinda looks like Massachusettes



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c36d260e-2014-4d4e-a1ac-bed333fa201f

[Spectator]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

Note the GA supreme court is elected statewide, and the terms are only 6 years, so 3 seats are up every 2 years.  If Democrats are sweeping the statewide offices at least twice during 2026-30, they would have a liberal majority court that would likely resolve the dispute by just picking the Dem map.  With this in mind, is there a way to draw a visually attractive 8D/6R? 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

Note the GA supreme court is elected statewide, and the terms are only 6 years, so 3 seats are up every 2 years.  If Democrats are sweeping the statewide offices at least twice during 2026-30, they would have a liberal majority court that would likely resolve the dispute by just picking the Dem map.  With this in mind, is there a way to draw a visually attractive 8D/6R? 

Probably. One thing I think you could see is that you would draw out Athens out and put it either with Atlanta or with Savannah+Augusta.

[Spectator]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

Note the GA supreme court is elected statewide, and the terms are only 6 years, so 3 seats are up every 2 years.  If Democrats are sweeping the statewide offices at least twice during 2026-30, they would have a liberal majority court that would likely resolve the dispute by just picking the Dem map.  With this in mind, is there a way to draw a visually attractive 8D/6R? 

Probably. One thing I think you could see is that you would draw out Athens out and put it either with Atlanta or with Savannah+Augusta.

It’s very easy to make a 9-5 Democrat map that’s not ugly. For Athens, attach it to Rockdale, Newton, and the remainder of Gwinnett.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

Note the GA supreme court is elected statewide, and the terms are only 6 years, so 3 seats are up every 2 years.  If Democrats are sweeping the statewide offices at least twice during 2026-30, they would have a liberal majority court that would likely resolve the dispute by just picking the Dem map.  With this in mind, is there a way to draw a visually attractive 8D/6R? 

Probably. One thing I think you could see is that you would draw out Athens out and put it either with Atlanta or with Savannah+Augusta.

It’s very easy to make a 9-5 Democrat map that’s not ugly. For Athens, attach it to Rockdale, Newton, and the remainder of Gwinnett.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/80fa0b8e-bed3-4b4c-a835-b30b6392d4ec
Does this look too bold?

[Spectator]

Assuming GA continues to trend and swing Dem, what's the chance that Ds pick up the legislature anyway by 2026?

By 2026? Zero shot. By 2030 with demographic change though, there's a possiblity of the state House flipping. The most likely scenario for 2030 is a Democrat Governor with a Republican legislature (or a divided one). Here's my map for a hypothetical compromise, or more likely a court-drawn map:



The north Fulton County/Forsyth County seat is Trump +4.5%. Will probably flip by the end of the decade, if it doesn't vote for Biden in 2024 anyway. In that case, you could get rid of one of the Democrat non-metro seats to keep it at 7-7.

Note the GA supreme court is elected statewide, and the terms are only 6 years, so 3 seats are up every 2 years.  If Democrats are sweeping the statewide offices at least twice during 2026-30, they would have a liberal majority court that would likely resolve the dispute by just picking the Dem map.  With this in mind, is there a way to draw a visually attractive 8D/6R? 

Probably. One thing I think you could see is that you would draw out Athens out and put it either with Atlanta or with Savannah+Augusta.

It’s very easy to make a 9-5 Democrat map that’s not ugly. For Athens, attach it to Rockdale, Newton, and the remainder of Gwinnett.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/80fa0b8e-bed3-4b4c-a835-b30b6392d4ec
Does this look too bold?

That is super aggressive, but it’s about on par with what the state GOP has done

[patzer]

If trends go well for the Dems in Georgia, the clever way to do a court drawn map would be along the lines of this (assumes 2010-20 population trends continue for 2020-30). https://davesredistricting.org/join/54773f5b-e1b7-4ee9-8fea-51d38068b89c




Strictly speaking it's something like 2 safe D, 3 safe R, and 9 swing- but by 2030 if most of those "swing" districts tend to go for the Dems more, it would be a good shout. So you get to have a map that's in theory fair/competitive but in practice favours Democrats.

1st: Trump +11.0%, Trump +8.0%
2nd: Clinton +5.8%, Biden +8.5%
3rd: Clinton +1.3%, Biden +5.6%
6th: Trump +8.9%, Biden +3.0%
7th: Clinton +1.6%, Biden +15.5%
10th: Trump +14.5%, Trump +5.7%
11th: Trump +7.6%, Biden +4.9%
12th: Clinton +2.1%, Biden +5.7%
13th: Trump +6.8%, Trump +1.4%

[Spectator]

That would be a solid 10D - 4R by the time 2030 comes around. Maybe even 3 R seats with the Savannah seat a pink seat that could flip depending on the trends down there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If trends go well for the Dems in Georgia, the clever way to do a court drawn map would be along the lines of this (assumes 2010-20 population trends continue for 2020-30). https://davesredistricting.org/join/54773f5b-e1b7-4ee9-8fea-51d38068b89c




Strictly speaking it's something like 2 safe D, 3 safe R, and 9 swing- but by 2030 if most of those "swing" districts tend to go for the Dems more, it would be a good shout. So you get to have a map that's in theory fair/competitive but in practice favours Democrats.

1st: Trump +11.0%, Trump +8.0%
2nd: Clinton +5.8%, Biden +8.5%
3rd: Clinton +1.3%, Biden +5.6%
6th: Trump +8.9%, Biden +3.0%
7th: Clinton +1.6%, Biden +15.5%
10th: Trump +14.5%, Trump +5.7%
11th: Trump +7.6%, Biden +4.9%
12th: Clinton +2.1%, Biden +5.7%
13th: Trump +6.8%, Trump +1.4%

Somehow you drew something even more aggressive than what I drew.

[Atlas Force]

So what happens here now?

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens here now?

Watch the case Georgia State Conference of the NAACP (and Georgia Coalition for the People’s Agenda and Galeo Latino Community Development) v. Georgia

The plaintiffs drew a favorable judge but they will still probably get pushed upwards to the next court tier before any result. Arguments concerning Summery Judgment were herd on May 30th.

The case touches more than Congressional lines, but if you wish to read the complaint, congressional topics are on PDF pages 47 through 57. Main section 2 claim, which would be supercharged by Milligan, concerns how GA-13 could be split in two and a new BVAP seat could emerge West of Atlanta, but instead hyper-packing in GA-13 and GA-04 and cracking across the region including GA-03, GA-09, GA-11, and GA-14 to prevent this seat from being drawn.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So what happens here now?

They might just make the current GA-07 majority black instead of plurality black I think?

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens here now?

They might just make the current GA-07 majority black instead of plurality black I think?

It can't be made majority Black without becoming a DeKalb seat, which though would probably satisfy the above plaintiffs cause it causes cascades that would push GA-04 south and then GA-13 west. Though doing so still would produce 5 ATL Dem seats, cause Gwinnett (and north DeKalb) is now too large and too blue to crack without super-spiderwebs.

[Skill and Chance]

So what happens here now?

They might just make the current GA-07 majority black instead of plurality black I think?

That means more bluish white/Asian North Atlanta areas now have to get distributed elsewhere across the map.  IDK if you can keep both GA-06 and GA-11 safe enough for the decade now?

[GALeftist]

Yeah after playing around a bit I think Georgia is definitely the most fertile ground for a Section 2 claim other than Alabama and Louisiana. Additionally, it's harder to do four VRA seats in Atlanta while also axing McBath than I thought at first. If I were them and I failed to defend the current map in court I'd probably just take the L and keep a D sink in the northern suburbs – otherwise you're really playing with fire given how fast those areas are growing and shifting left, and frankly the current gerrymander is spread a bit thin in the north anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens here now?

Watch the case Georgia State Conference of the NAACP (and Georgia Coalition for the People’s Agenda and Galeo Latino Community Development) v. Georgia

The plaintiffs drew a favorable judge but they will still probably get pushed upwards to the next court tier before any result. Arguments concerning Summery Judgment were herd on May 30th.

The case touches more than Congressional lines, but if you wish to read the complaint, congressional topics are on PDF pages 47 through 57. Main section 2 claim, which would be supercharged by Milligan, concerns how GA-13 could be split in two and a new BVAP seat could emerge West of Atlanta, but instead hyper-packing in GA-13 and GA-04 and cracking across the region including GA-03, GA-09, GA-11, and GA-14 to prevent this seat from being drawn.

https://twitter.com/DemocracyDocket/status/1666889428223119363?s=20

[Arizona Iced Tea]

So what happens here now?

They might just make the current GA-07 majority black instead of plurality black I think?

That means more bluish white/Asian North Atlanta areas now have to get distributed elsewhere across the map.  IDK if you can keep both GA-06 and GA-11 safe enough for the decade now?

What about stretching it into one of the larger rural northern districts instead like GA-09?

[Oryxslayer]

So what happens here now?

They might just make the current GA-07 majority black instead of plurality black I think?

That means more bluish white/Asian North Atlanta areas now have to get distributed elsewhere across the map.  IDK if you can keep both GA-06 and GA-11 safe enough for the decade now?

What about stretching it into one of the larger rural northern districts instead like GA-09?

Dave doesn't realize it, but his 5 minute map conveniently shows why you can't make GA-07 into the new black seat. Yes his GA-13 can drop GOP precincts in the south but everything else in his four seats is deep blue. And the heart of White Liberal Georgia, the inner northern suburbs which have well more than a CDs worth of population, are not apportioned out.



I hope this answers your questions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

GA Rs might have to bite the bullet and give Ds one more seat.

[Oryxslayer]

In addition to the ongoing case Georgia State Conference of the NAACP  v. Georgia, there is and was a second case filed before that one called Pendergrass v. Raffensperger. This case's plaintiffs, along with a second solely legislative suit, asked for a Preliminary Injunction ahead of the 2022 primaries in regards to their Section 2 claims. The hearing coincided with Milligan's lower level case.

The appeal for PI failed, however the Judge that heard the claims agreed with the plaintiffs that all their Section 2 VRA claims (1 congressional and a handful legislative) had overwhelming proof and would be successful. He did not grant the PI though because of the Alabama precedent all but dictating the Purcell principle to be applied. The Pendergrass plaintiffs are now also moving through the lower courts.

This was the map the judge agreed with but had to reject based on Purcell and how the PI would impact the election schedule:



Reading through both reports, their Section 2 VRA claims which were reinforced by Milligan - which only concern ATL and not the 4 southern districts - would point towards a map similar to below if the GOP had a voice. Georgia State Conference also has Racial Gerrymandering and Dilution claims  concerning the old GA-06 and desire a resurrection of a "Milton" county district, but these were not affected by todays decision.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1667182284015910912?s=20

This concerns Pendergrass v. Raffensperger and the other cases which were merged with it during the PI appeal, not Georgia State Conference of the NAACP v. Georgia. The reason why the two larger cases have so far not been merged is because the latter has equal protection racial gerrymandering Claims brought via the 14th amendment in addition to Section 2 VRA (Milligan) Claims, whereas the former is only Section 2.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would obviously not be helpful in aiding a GA VRA challenge, but it is still theoretically possible to draw 2 majority black VAP districts that don't take in any part of Atlanta. In the map above, it's interesting that GA-02 is under Biden + 10 but GA-01 was over Biden + 25 despite having the same topline black population %. This is probably because GA-01 has to pick up some what liberals in Savannah and Augusta which aren't as georacially segregated as many other Southern cities.

In theory, you can draw 6 functional majority black seats in GA, but proportionality really only requires 4, and if you were to get a 5th seat it'd come out of Atlanta, not rural Southern GA.

[windjammer]

This Map is going to get struck down too?

What would be the New Map?

[MaxQue]

This Map is going to get struck down too?

What would be the New Map?

We won't know until September, but that's the most likely result.
The new map should be an extra black seat in Atlanta (and most likely an extra D seat, as you would still need a seat to house all the white areas of Atlanta).