2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

TVBS poll.  DPP Lai and KMT Hou gains ground at the expense of TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo

4-way

DPP Lai         34 (+4)
TPP Ko          22 (-1)
KMT Hou       21 (+2)
Pro-KMT Guo   9 (-4)

3-way
DPP Lai         36
TPP Ko          28
KMT Hou       26

2-way
KMT-TPP       50  (KMT-TPP alliance headed by either KMT Hou or TPP Ko)
DPP Lai         40

It seems having Guo in the race increases the number of pan-Blue undecided.  This sort of means that the 4-way race undecided leans toward Blue




Approval/disapproval - other than Guo the 3 main candidates are around the same

DPP Lai          40/39
TPP Ko           41/38
KMT Hou        36/38
pro-KMT Guo  30/46


DPP Lai's gain is mostly about the large consolidation of remaining DPP and lean-DPP voters, mostly women DPP and lean-DPP voters.  Guo lost ground with KMT and pan-blue voters who went to become undecided.   Just like their July poll, this poll seems to have a heavier Green sample which mostly mitigates the TVBS pan-Blue lean and put TVBS in line with other polls like Ettoday.

[greengod]

It looks like that Hou-Ko aliance comes to be true. Lai is not
likely to become the president.

[jaichind]

It looks like that Hou-Ko aliance comes to be true. Lai is not
likely to become the president.

Most likely but I think it will have to be Hou-Ko and not Ko-Hou.  A good part of the KMT vote is the organizational vote that will not come out unless the KMT is at the top of the ticket.  The Ko vote is the personal vote and the core Ko vote will vote Hou-Ko if you are convinced that Ko is going to come in third place.  So the only path toward Hou-Ko is for Guo to drop out and endorse Hou which leads to a Hou surge in the polls pushing Ko into third place by a margin.  And even then Ko has to consider the impact of a Hou-Ko ticket on the TPP PR vote which would be a priority for him.  All things equal I find this scenario very unlikely and DPP Lai is in a very strong position to win.  The main question would most likely be will DPP Lai be below or above 40%.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko makes an offer to KMT Hou for a way to get to an anti-DPP grand alliance.  He proposed a bunch of 3rd party pollsters do a poll on a specified date range and the weaker candidate drops out of the race.  Right now polls have them about 50/50 with half of the polls having KMT Hou ahead of TPP Ko and the other half the other way around.  TPP Ko is betting that the pollster's oversample cell phone users/youth which would put him ahead.   No response yet from KMT other than that the timing is not right yet (read: KMT Hou's lead over TPP Ko is not significant) and we should talk later.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that if TPP Ko senses that the KMT wants to drag out talks on a united front on the premise that KMT Hou numbers are likely to grow in October relative to TPP Ko his trump cards are

a) Form an alliance with pro-KMT Guo - this seems unlikely.  Guo will ask for a large pound of flesh which might be just as expensive as what the KMT would demand
b) Get 2020 KMT Prez candidate Han to join his front - this is in theory possible as Han is actually personally chosen to Ko and actually worked with Ko in the 2016-2018 period when Ko was Taipei mayor

Both seem far-fetched but if either one can be pulled off will be a grave threat to the KMT.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It looks like that Hou-Ko aliance comes to be true. Lai is not
likely to become the president.

Lai is still leading three-way polling anyway.

[jaichind]

It looks like that Hou-Ko aliance comes to be true. Lai is not
likely to become the president.

Lai is still leading three-way polling anyway.

Correct, and his leads are very significant (> 6%-7% even in pro-Blue polls).   Of course, these 3-way polls are in the context that pro-KMT Guo could appear on the ballot and have not endorsed either KMT Hou or TPP Ko.  If that were to change I would expect the Lai lead in a 3-way race to narrow.  Still even in that circumstance unless either KMT Hou or TPP Ko implodes it is still very likely that DPP Lai will win.

[jaichind]

Newtalk polls - they historically had a Green lean but seem to have a Ko-Guo lean this time.  Most likely they are too cell phone/youth-heavy.  Lai and Guo lose ground to Ko.

3-way with change from Mid-September
DPP Lai            32.05 (-0.53)
TPP Ko             30.42 (+1.20)
KMT Hou          24.01 (+0.37)




4-way with change from Mid-September
DPP Lai            30.87 (-0.17)
TPP Ko             27.11 (+2.72)
KMT Hou          21.94 (+0.85)
Pro-KMT Guo    10.63 (-1.70)





PR vote - change from Mid-September - TPP gain ground from DPP
KMT           30.51 (+0.11)
DPP            28.07 (-1.99)
TPP            18.54 (+1.62)
TSP              2.16 (+0.94)
NPP              2.03 (+0.29)
PFP              0.85 (+0.15)
NP               0.37 (-0.05)
TSU             0.14 (+0.03)

[jaichind]

UDN annual Sept poll on ROC-PRC relationship

Independence 26
Status Quo     57
Unification      11

Both Independence and Unification are near historic lows




Approval/Disapproval of DPP Prez Tsai of dealing with ROC-PRC relations: 38/49 which is up from last year




In the USA-PRC rivalry what side should the ROC support

                   Total     DPP    KMT    TPP     Independent
USA                21      56        5        6           15
PRC                  7        1      17        9             4
Equidistant      66      41      75       83          71

That PRC edges out USA 9-6 with TPP voters again shows TPP's role as a Light Blue party.  Overall other than DPP, everyone else wants to be equidistant between the USA and PRC.    



Should ROC-PRC have a line of communications Yes/No   85/9
Are you worried that the PRC will act to hurt our exports to PRC Yes/No  42/51
Should ROC-PRC economic links grow/reduce/stay the same    40/18/36

[jaichind]

TPP published its internal poll

3-way
DPP Lai            30.3
TPP Ko             27.5
KMT Hou          18.8



4-way
DPP Lai           26.4
TPP Ko            20.2
KMT Hou         14.7
Pro-KMT Guo   12.7



Ko-Hou ticket would beat DPP Lai 45.2 vs. 32.9 while a Hou-Ko ticket would only beat DPP Lai 42.1 vs. 35.0.  The main reasons, looking at cross-tabs, are the Ko and Guo voters are more likely to defect to Lai if Hou is at the top of the ticket as opposed to Lai.



Overall this poll seems youth and cell phone heavy producing stronger results for Ko and Guo.  The fact that there seems to be a significant number of Lai-Guo voters in this poll also makes it fishy and is another sign that young non-aligned voters are oversampled.

[jaichind]

KMT and DPP ads:

KMT: Vote DPP and your children will be on the battlefield
DPP: Vote KMT and Taiwan will turn into HK

To be fair this has been the main message of KMT and DPP since the early 2000s

[jaichind]

TPP Ko made a proposal to the KMT saying that

a) There should be a debate between TPP Ko and KMT Hou
b) 5 polling companies does a post debate poll
c) Loser of the 5 polling averages drops out
d) The losing party gets to nominate the VP candidate of the winning party

The KMT seems evasive to this idea.  It seems that KMT want to delay something like this until the KMT election machines gets going in Nov which they expect to push up KMT Hou's numbers

[jaichind]

There are a few high profile  Deep Blue KMT former MP that are coming out with a pro-Ko position which is amazing given Ko's current position and his Deep Green background.

In the USA context it would be like telling someone today that political headline in July 2040 is:  AOC and Elizabeth Warren comes out retirement to support independent candidate Ben Shapiro's moderate-liberal run at the presidency.  The asked the Dem candidate Kathy Hochul to drop out since not doing so merely hands the election to the GOP in a 3 way race and the liberal progressive vote will be split between Shapiro and Hochul.  They call upon all liberal democratic and progressive to unite around Ben Shapiro to defeat the GOP in November.   

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

DPP: Vote KMT and Taiwan will turn into HK

Didn't Hou You-yi explicitly say that he opposes One Country Two Systems?

[jaichind]

DPP: Vote KMT and Taiwan will turn into HK

Didn't Hou You-yi explicitly say that he opposes One Country Two Systems?

Yes, but that will not stop the DPP from claiming that KMT is de facto for "One Country Two Systems".  Likewise, the DPP will say that they are for the status quo, that Taiwan's Independence is a nominal goal, and that they will do everything to de-escalate with the PRC without losing self-respect.  In many ways, I agree that is what the DPP is de facto doing but that will not stop the KMT from claiming that a vote for DPP is a vote for war.  The most likely cause of war at this stage would be some USA provocation of PRC and not from DPP.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko on a visit to the USA West Coast.  He seems to have lost his cell phone at the SF Airport.   His phone has links to a lot of key TPP information so TPP operatives have to remove all sorts of TPP data on the cloud.  TPP Ko also, in a speech, advocated a move toward a PM-centric political system in ROC versus a Prez-centric political system.

[jaichind]

The KMT Hou and TPP Ko camps discuss forming a unity ticket via some primary-like process.  They seem to have agreed to 3 debates.  But they still disagree on how the "winner" will be decided.  TPP Ko continues to insist on an all-opinion poll process while the KMT wants some mixed system where party strength is taken into account in addition to opinion poll results.  The KMT insists that opinion polls can be manipulated.

[jaichind]

Latest Formosa Times poll.  Formosa Times has a clear Green lean as well as an elderly lean (they are not as good at polling those with cell phones)

3-way

DPP Lai             36.7
KMT Hou           23.7
TPP Ko              21.5



4-way
DPP Lai            35.5
KMT Hou          21.1
TPP Ko             17.5
pro-KMT Guo      5.8


Pro-KMT Guo becoming marginalized as expected.  Given the Green lean of this poll, the implied position of this poll is still DPP Lai in the low 30s while KMT Hou and TPP Ko at mid the 20s which is about the same it was a month ago.

[jaichind]

Latest Ettoday poll.  DPP Lai KMT Hou and TPP Ko all gain at the expense of pro-KMT Guo

All things equal this poll shows a relative shift toward KMT Hou and TPP Ko.  This is because KMT-TPP unity talks are all over the news marginalizing pro-KMT Guo and even DPP Lai a bit.

4-way


 

3-way





They also have Hou-Ko or Ko-Hou tickets against DPP Lai with and without pro-KMT Guo
Net net, Ko-Hou is stronger while pro-KMT Guo does hurt the the KMT-TPP joint ticket




One other idea would be for TPP Ko to drop out and if KMT Hou wins then TPP Ko would be appointed PM.   This possible combination has KMT Hou barely ahead of DPP Lai

[jaichind]

Newtalk poll.  A very dramatic shift away from DPP Lai.  Part of it of course is all the media attention on KMT-TPP unity calks but the party ID numbers seem to indicate this is a very Blue sample.

TPP Ko is now first in the 3-way poll but third in the 4-way poll which shows how much pro-KMT Guo is taking from TPP Ko.  But both matchups have the 3 candidates all very close to each other.

3-way



4-way



Party support



Hou-Ko vs DPP Lai matchup


Ko-Hou vs DPP Lai matchup

[jaichind]

Some trends from the most recent polling:

a) It is clear putting pro-KMT Guo in the polling hurts TPP Ko the most and ironically KMT Hou the least.
 There seems to be a cluster of youth pan-Blue voters that shift back and forth between TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo.  One is light Blue and one is deep Blue which does not seem to be a problem for this bloc of voters as long as they do not support KMT which they view as being run by a bunch of fuddy duddies.   Even if somehow KMT Hou can marginalize both TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo it is not clear at all if this group of voters will tactically vote for KMT Hou. 

b) DPP Lai is taking a big risk just running a low-keyed campaign.  It is true that if the 3 pan-Blue candidates do not work something out where at least one of them drops out then DPP Lai cannot lose. But to just sit back and just focus on the core 35%-40% DPP vote carries a risk.  DPP Lai is not getting the message out there on why people should vote Lai.  If the pan-Blue camp, contrary to all expectations, does get their act together DPP Lai could be looking at an election that is shoe into an electoral landslide defeat.  Besides this strategy will also hurt the DPP down-ballot and almost ensure a non-DPP legislative majority which cannot be good for Lai once he gets elected.

c) Right now the KMT and TPP are battling over primary vs polling as the way to decide who will stand down between KMT Hou and TPP Ko.  I do not thing the KMT  argument on a primary vote is feasible so if there is a deal it will have to involve a good deal of polling.  Besides battles over which pollster to use and how to weight results from cell phone calling another thing for KMT and TPP to battle over would be if the polling question should include pro-KMT Guo as a choice.  KMT Hou will want that while TPP Ko will oppose.  On the whole, I see nothing that tells me there will be a deal and both sides are mostly likely having talks to try to blame the other side when talks breakdown so their side can grab the tactical anti-DPP vote.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll on PR vote

KMT         25
DPP         23
TPP          20

The TPP number seems high but I am sure there must be a surge of support for TPP given the KMT-TPP unity talks in the news.  It is also true that TVBS this cycle seems to have a TPP/Ko lean.   It is almost certain that the next TVBS poll will have TPP Ko ahead of KMT Hou.

[jaichind]

鏡新聞(MNEWS) poll.  This media outfit is fairly new and given the circumstances of how it was formed last year and recent leadership changes should be viewed as a pro-DPP outfit with a likely Green lean in their polling but there is no track record.  The number they provide seems to have an anti-KMT but not anti-TPP lean.

3-way has DPP Lai ahead of course but TPP Ko is well ahead of KMT Hou but Hou is gaining ground



The same trend of TPP Ko being the youth and high education candidate and KMT Hou being the elderly candidate.  TPP Ko has a clear gender gap of much stronger support among men





4-way.  Pro-KMT Guo eating into both TPP Ko and KMT Hou vote but does show that the undecided in the 3-way poll must lean Blue



Similar demographic trends as 3-way with pro-KMT Guo stronger with middle-aged and high-education voters




Legislative race district vote has KMT and DPP tied


PR vote also has KMT and DPP tied with TPP gaining ground

[jaichind]

One interesting trend with all the polling is that now DPP Lai has a small to sizeable gender gap with stronger support for women.  DPP has historically been weak with women relative to the KMT.  The gap got smaller under DPP Prez Tsai who is a woman herself but it did persist.  Now with DPP Lai running the DPP, ironically, is stronger with women.  This seems to be mostly about some lean light green young men going from DPP to TPP which made DPP support with women relatively stronger. 

Part of this is also the secular trend of women drifting to DPP over time.  Women have backed KMT more in the past due to the perception that KMT will "protect the status quo."  Back in the 1990s-2010s the main threat to the status quo was DPP coming to power and pushing toward de jure independence provoking an invasion from the PRC.  DPP has mellowed under DPP Tsai on this which made it less of a salient issue.  In parallel the PRC is now dramatically stronger when compared to the 1990s and 2000s and it is a real concern with light green and also light blue voters that the PRC will soon have the power to gobble up ROC through a series of economic political and military moves.  So under that circumstance, the DPP is now an option for women who want to "protest the status quo."

[jaichind]

TVBS poll on PR vote

KMT         25
DPP         23
TPP          20

The TPP number seems high but I am sure there must be a surge of support for TPP given the KMT-TPP unity talks in the news.  It is also true that TVBS this cycle seems to have a TPP/Ko lean.   It is almost certain that the next TVBS poll will have TPP Ko ahead of KMT Hou.

One other bad number for DPP from this poll

DPP should be ousted from power in 2024 agree/disagree 59/30.  This is not that bad for DPP Lai given he split of the pan-Blue camp but is very bad for DPP down-ballot.