2025 Canadian election
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April 25, 2024, 07:28:51 AM
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« on: April 04, 2024, 11:17:33 AM »

Not sure why, but 3 NDP MPs announced in a joint press conference they won't be seeking reelection: Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes from Ontario and Rachel Blaney in British Columbia. Charlie Angus has been an M.P since 2004 and Carol Hughes since 2008, but Blaney was first elected in 2015.

Is joint press conferences to announce retirements a new thing? Four members of the Sask Party cabinet jointly announced they wouldn't run again earlier this year.
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DL
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2024, 12:02:22 PM »

I suspect that the party wanted to get the news about retirements out all at once so that itís just a one day story rather than a drip drip of retirement announcements that each get covered
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toaster
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2024, 07:56:11 PM »

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2024, 03:58:16 AM »

Not sure why, but 3 NDP MPs announced in a joint press conference they won't be seeking reelection: Charlie Angus and Carol Hughes from Ontario and Rachel Blaney in British Columbia. Charlie Angus has been an M.P since 2004 and Carol Hughes since 2008, but Blaney was first elected in 2015.

Is joint press conferences to announce retirements a new thing? Four members of the Sask Party cabinet jointly announced they wouldn't run again earlier this year.
Blaney margins in 2021 was 3.5
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adma
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« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2024, 07:05:57 AM »

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.

Another "scare" on a provincial level: George Pirie's landslide defeat of Gilles Bisson in Timmins provincially in '22.  (That is, PP could thank Doug Ford for the strategic assist.) 

I do wonder whether the retirement and redistribution is preparation for a candidate of perhaps star-level FN background in Charlie's place--but because this is Northern Ontario and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, I fear that that may lay the foundation for a Kenora/Desnethe situation where the electorate is henceforth terminally racially polarized...
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2024, 08:50:31 AM »

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.

Another "scare" on a provincial level: George Pirie's landslide defeat of Gilles Bisson in Timmins provincially in '22.  (That is, PP could thank Doug Ford for the strategic assist.)  

I do wonder whether the retirement and redistribution is preparation for a candidate of perhaps star-level FN background in Charlie's place--but because this is Northern Ontario and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, I fear that that may lay the foundation for a Kenora/Desnethe situation where the electorate is henceforth terminally racially polarized...

Yup, we've seen countless Indigenous candidates for the NDP in the north, and they've all done pretty poorly due to the inherent racism up there. Except for Sol Mamakwa (and I guess Guy Bourgouin?) of course. Seems like the only way to elect Indigenous politicians is to create ridings with Indigenous majorities.

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals.

Quite possible. It takes a lot of territory from Nickel Belt, which is still super safe NDP territory provincially (though, the 10 points swing to the Tories in the last election is a bit concerning).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2024, 11:22:21 AM »

Also not only did CPC gain in Northern Ontario, but PPC too did rather well and whether accurate or not view is most PPC votes will go CPC.  I believe in Angus riding and most in Northern Ontario, CPC + PPC exceeded winner.  Off course I don't think you can assume all PPC will go CPC.  That being said Northern Ontario is sort of like Iron Range on American side and GOP has made big gains there either winning or getting north of 40% while under Obama struggled to crack 30%. 

If Tories gain many rural NDP ridings which asides Churchill and Nunavut, looks like most could fall to them, that could be offset by urban gains.  Likewise any Tory gains in suburbs likely more fatigue of government vs. desire to shift rightward so Tories gaining few rural ridings they don't hold won't necessarily help them long term if they continue to flop in urban/suburban ridings outside Alberta & Saskatchewan.
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xelas81
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« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2024, 11:41:37 AM »

With caveat that this highly unlikely to be election day results
Here are polls so far

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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2024, 12:53:26 PM »

Sucks about Angus. That's my home riding. It was embarrassing enough that it went PC provincially. NDP can absolutely hold on to it but with the Conservative party polling strong, it will be tough.

Fwiw and totally not representative of anything, my dad does vote PC and occasionally Conservative and he hates Poilievre.
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toaster
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« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2024, 04:28:48 PM »

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.

Another "scare" on a provincial level: George Pirie's landslide defeat of Gilles Bisson in Timmins provincially in '22.  (That is, PP could thank Doug Ford for the strategic assist.) 

I do wonder whether the retirement and redistribution is preparation for a candidate of perhaps star-level FN background in Charlie's place--but because this is Northern Ontario and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, I fear that that may lay the foundation for a Kenora/Desnethe situation where the electorate is henceforth terminally racially polarized...

If the NDP can convince Timmins city councillor Kristin Murray to run, I think they would win.  She was briefly appointed mayor, but she is also the councillor who has received the most votes in the last 2 elections, she's Indigenous. I just don't know if she speaks French.. and with Kapuskasing and Hearst now being added here, you really do need someone bilingual. You essentially need someone to hit those three boxes now (English, French and Indigenous, who also comes from/lives in Timmins, as it has the majority of the population) for this riding. I'm not as worried about the Conservatives here because provincially, the riding is only the city of Timmins, and also they had no Liberal candidate (so all the Liberal supporters voted Con to stop Gilles).
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2024, 05:41:35 PM »

Doug Ford successfully ran on being pro (private sector) union. While Poilievre is making pretenses of being 'for the working class' (greatly pushed by the mainstream Canadian right wing media) as with everything Poilievre so far there really is no detail.

Of course this explains why the Conservatives voted for the anti scab legislation.
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oldtimer
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2024, 05:46:42 PM »

With caveat that this highly unlikely to be election day results
Here are polls so far



You can point to the moment when Trudeau almost declared war on India as the straw that broke the camel's back.

It's logical to think that it convinced the public that Trudeau was a nutter.
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adma
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2024, 06:14:59 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2024, 07:32:57 PM by adma »

Carol Hughes' riding is essentially being eliminated after redistribution, I thought she might run in the new Sudbury/Manitoulin riding (which puts where she lives in a riding with where she has represented), and I think she could win against the Liberals, but, Jagmeet is not well liked in Northern Ontario. For Charlie Angus, I think Pierre Poilievre was going after him pretty strong.

Another "scare" on a provincial level: George Pirie's landslide defeat of Gilles Bisson in Timmins provincially in '22.  (That is, PP could thank Doug Ford for the strategic assist.)  

I do wonder whether the retirement and redistribution is preparation for a candidate of perhaps star-level FN background in Charlie's place--but because this is Northern Ontario and the Conservatives are the Conservatives, I fear that that may lay the foundation for a Kenora/Desnethe situation where the electorate is henceforth terminally racially polarized...

If the NDP can convince Timmins city councillor Kristin Murray to run, I think they would win.  She was briefly appointed mayor, but she is also the councillor who has received the most votes in the last 2 elections, she's Indigenous. I just don't know if she speaks French.. and with Kapuskasing and Hearst now being added here, you really do need someone bilingual. You essentially need someone to hit those three boxes now (English, French and Indigenous, who also comes from/lives in Timmins, as it has the majority of the population) for this riding. I'm not as worried about the Conservatives here because provincially, the riding is only the city of Timmins, and also they had no Liberal candidate (so all the Liberal supporters voted Con to stop Gilles).

Yeah, and esp. w/the Kap/Hearst corridor now in the riding, Charlie might have seen the dodgy-French problem that plagued his leadership bid looming all over again.  And in a way, I can see a Kristin Murray following Angus's larger-than-life footsteps a little like similarly-municipal-backgrounded Cindy Forster (successfully) following in Peter Kormos' larger-than-life provincial footsteps in Welland.

Also, who knows whether being Indigenous is necessarily such a burden now that Wab Kinew's demonstrated a more disarming way to power.  (And one might even say that Angus himself was latterly hobbled by proxy due to his own active stance on the FN file--or, the CPC/PPC vote as a slow-burn backlash to his "pandering" to such interests.)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #13 on: April 08, 2024, 10:33:48 AM »

Murray is Indigenous and Black. She checks off a lot of NDP minority boxes. Great candidate. I think with her being a mix of both races actually helps with the Northern racism issue, as it dilutes her Indigenousness. Not saying the North isn't racist against Blacks, but probably no more so than your average place in Canada. And there have been instances of Northern communities electing Black candidates at the local level. For example, Mattawa, ON was the first place in Canada to have a Black mayor in 1963.
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Krago
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« Reply #14 on: April 09, 2024, 01:42:02 PM »

Elections Canada has released its Interactive Data Visualizer.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/tra/2023viz&document=index&lang=e

It transposes the results of the 2021 Federal Election onto the new boundaries of the 2023 Representation Order.

If you can get it to work for you, you are truly blessed.

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2024, 01:43:18 PM »

Elections Canada has released its Interactive Data Visualizer.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/tra/2023viz&document=index&lang=e


If you can get it to work for you, you are truly blessed.



Ahh, so I'm not the only one...
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Krago
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« Reply #16 on: April 09, 2024, 01:47:46 PM »

Elections Canada has released its Interactive Data Visualizer.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/tra/2023viz&document=index&lang=e


If you can get it to work for you, you are truly blessed.



Ahh, so I'm not the only one...

This may help, but it still doesn't answer your question.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rep/tra/2023rep&document=p5&lang=e
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2024, 08:42:56 AM »


Yes, I did see that. I guess I'm going to have to rely on ridingbuilder to determine the % of each former riding the new ridings come from.
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Krago
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« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2024, 03:02:24 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2024, 04:51:05 PM by Krago »

Does anyone know if the new shapefiles for the 2023 Representation Order have been concatenated and are available for download?  Or do I have to go to the website for each individual federal electoral boundaries commission?

UPDATE:  I  just created my own file, using all the shp files from the commissions.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2024, 03:02:02 PM »

Recent polling suggests Trudeau's announcements aren't helping him that much.  I do wonder if public has just tuned out Liberals at this point and announcements or attacks aren't working.  I think if Trudeau was smart, he would step down at end of session, have a leadership race in summer so no leader in place by fall.  And party would be wise to get someone like Mark Carney who is not tied to current government.
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Benjamin Frank 2.0
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« Reply #20 on: April 13, 2024, 01:38:52 PM »

Recent polling suggests Trudeau's announcements aren't helping him that much.  I do wonder if public has just tuned out Liberals at this point and announcements or attacks aren't working.  I think if Trudeau was smart, he would step down at end of session, have a leadership race in summer so no leader in place by fall.  And party would be wise to get someone like Mark Carney who is not tied to current government.

Outside of some economics types on the internet, I don't think most people know who Mark Carney is.

I think the Liberal M.Ps recognize that it wouldn't make a difference to change leaders as they are all considered part of the Trudeau Liberal government and his policies. I believe this is the case for two reasons:

1.According to Politico's Ottawa Playbook, Liberal cabinet ministers if not backbench M.Ps make 'gallows humor' jokes about being fired by the voters.

2.Given the persistent low polling, if there was a demand for change of leader in the Liberal caucus, we would have seen it by now. All there was was the one M.P who was quickly forced to embarrass himself with "what I really meant was..."
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