2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

Of course, the fact that there are 3 pan-Blue candidates at the Prez level is a boom for KMT MP candidates in districts where TPP does not have anyone viable running, which is most of them.  The KMT MP candidates de facto get support from all 3 pan-Blue candidates at the ground level and form a mega anti-DPP grand alliance.  If this remains the dynamic the chances of a DPP majority in the legislative elections is zero and greater than a 50/50 shot of the KMT emerge as SLP.

[jaichind]

The latest Ettoday poll has KMT Hou making gains both in 3-way and 4-way matchups mostly due to gains in the pro-KMT and pro-Blue youth vote

The dynamic is the same.  In a 3-way matchup, the KMT Hou surge is meaningful as it could turn into a threat to DPP Lai. In a 4-way matchup, the gap continues to be too big and KMT Hou will run out of non-core TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo voters to come over to him to catchup with DPP Lai.

3-way





4-way

[jaichind]

TVBS legislative poll on New Taipei 12th district.  This is a Blue+3 district that DPP Tsai urban wave carried with ease in 2016 and 2020.  In 2016 DPP backed the NPP Chairperson who won on DPP Tsai's coattails and in 2020 after the DPP-NPP split a young first-time DPP candidate won despite NPP splitting the vote again on the DPP Tsai's urban wave coattails.

2016
NPP       51.5% (Chairperson of NPP) (backed by DPP)
KMT       43.7% (incumbent)
FHL          3.1% (social conservative, pro-KMT)
PPUP        1.6% (light blue)

2020
DPP       45.4% (daughter of DPP MP from the early 2000s, has local roots)
KMT       43.9% (ex-MP from Taipei City so does not have local roots even if a quality candidate)
NPP         7.3%
SFP          1.6% (social conservative, pro-KMT)

The first-time DPP MP who is the youngest in the ROC Legislature.  Her father was a DPP MP back in the early 2000s who is now embroiled in some scandals with his involvement in green energy which includes some unexplained dealings with the PRC.  It is not unexpected for the DPP incumbent not to poll well but the poll shows a blowout victory for KMT 47-31



The poll has the DPP MP losing the youth vote badly due to the allegations being made against her former DPP MP father.   The KMT and TPP vote has mostly consolidated around the KMT challenger.

The poll for Prez is

DPP Lai          29
KMT Hou        24
TPP Ko           16
pro-KMT Guo  11

Given that this is a Blue+3 district a reasonable ROC extrapolation of the Prez race would be

DPP Lai         32
KMT Hou       23
TPP Ko          15
pro-KMT Guo 10

The undecided in the Prez race area breaking for the KMT challenger over the DPP incumbent 25-16 which would imply that the undecided lean Blue but not but a huge margin.  

This implied result seems consistent with the Ettoday poll.  The slight good news for KMT Hou is that with both TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo both below 20% one of them could end up dropping out and potentially support KMT Hou.  If that were to take place then the Prez election could become competitive.  Unless that happens it seems almost certain that DPP Lai will win.

Back to the legislative part of the poll.  Out of the 21% that are undecided the Prez part of the poll seems to be

DPP Lai          20
KMT Hou          6
TPP Ko           16
pro-KMT Guo    7

Which would imply sort of a slight light blue lean to the undecided.  If so the undecided will at best break evenly between the DPP incumbent and KMT challenger which would mean a landslide defeat for the DPP incumbent.

The DPP incumbent 賴品妤(Lai Pin-yu) was 28 when she was elected in 2020 and was considered a rising star in the DPP.  In practice, she has not done much since she entered the legislature.  One of the reasons seems to be that she was spending a lot of time with her boyfriend who was a 苗栗(Miaoli County) NPP MLA elected in 2018 and re-elected as a pro-DPP independent in 2022.  He will run as a pro-DPP independent in 苗栗(Miaoli County) 2nd district in 2024.  This is a Blue +17 district so he has zero chance of winning.  Well, perhaps in her defeat and her boyfriend's defeat in 2024, they can actually get married.  If she were to win re-election I doubt she can get married and for sure not have any children until 2028 when she will be 36 while the clock is ticking.  It is up to her but from my view she can win in her personal life by losing her re-election.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko is running into problems in his own backyard mostly in the form of greater troubles for the TPP mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 高虹安 (Ann Kao).  Most of her troubles seem to relate to her boyfriend.  First, there is this ongoing scandal/investigation of how her boyfriend falsely claimed overtime pay as a Legislative MP aide for 高虹安 (Ann Kao) when she was a TPP MP.  Now disgruntled 新竹市(Hsinchu City) municipal officials are complaining that TPP mayor 高虹安 (Ann Kao)'s boyfriend has outsized influence over city government affairs.  Understand that a lot of these "disgruntled" officials most likely are leftovers of the DPP administration from 2014-2022 and might be on their way out for partisan reasons and are throwing out such "dirt" to get revenge.  None of this says the accusations are not true.

There are now talks that TPP might suspend 高虹安 (Ann Kao) from TPP although TPP's high command is denying it.

Speaking of 新竹市(Hsinchu City)  it seems TPP might run TPP Ko's sister to run for MP spot here.

In 2020 the KMT won in a 3-way race

KMT     37.0
DPP     31.8
NPP     28.6
CPA      2.0 (light blue KMT splinter, de facto merged back into KMT)

This time around KMT incumbent will face DPP NPP and now also TPP.   新竹市(Hsinchu City) is very youth heavy which is a weakness for KMT.   Having both NPP and TPP run with both having youth appeal will split the youth vote while KMT will beat the DPP with the elderly vote.  If NPP and TPP formed an alliance they could pose a threat to KMT by sweeping the youth vote while the KMT and DPP split the elderly vote.  As it is in a 4- way race it seems the KMT incumbant will win and most likely with a good margin.

[jaichind]

KMT Hou plans to visit the USA in a few days. He plans to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  Not clear if they will see him.

[jaichind]

CNEWS poll.  This poll is not high quality and is very erratic with random Blue and Green leans.  Chang from last week

DPP Lai         28.4 (-1.3)
TPP Ko          23.4 (--)
KMT Hou       15.6 (+0.8  )
pro-KMT Guo 13.0 (+0.4)

This poll seems to have a Ko lean when compared to the other polls.  

There is a number that is a disaster for the DPP:  Do you want to see the DPP defeated in the election? Yes/No 65.1/23.2

So even some of the DPP Lai vote are lukewarm about saying no to defeating DPP in the election.  There seems to be a massive anti-DPP majority which still means DPP Lai wins due to the 3-way split of the anti-DPP vote but these numbers are a disaster for the DPP down ballot where the anti-DPP vote will most likely consolidate around the KMT candidate.

[jaichind]

Guo announces half-American actress 賴佩霞(Lai Pei-Hsia) as his running mate.  She is really just a stand-in as clearly Guo's hope is some sort of deal between him and KMT Hou and/or TPP Ko where one of those two becomes his running mate in a grand anti-DPP alliance.

[jaichind]

Latest Newtalk poll (change from late Aug)

Overall good news for KMT.  Poll still seems to have a Ko-Guo lean this lean seems to have mostly corrected itself over the last couple of months.   Both TPP Hou and KMT Guo gain in the sense that Guo loses ground which makes it easier to get him to drop out later which is a pre-condition to make DPP Lai's defeat even possible.

4-way

DPP Lai and pro-KMT Guo lose ground to TPP Ko and KMT Hou.   Pro-KMT Guo lost a lot of support in the days after announcing

DPP Lai             32.04 (-1.29)
TPP Ko              24.39 (+3.42)
KMT Hou           21.09 (+2.95)
pro-KMT Guo     12.33 (-7.69)





3-way

DPP Lai loses ground to both TPP Ko and KMT Hou

DPP Lai            32.58 (-3.55)
TPP Ko             29.22 (+2.41)
KMT Hou          23.64 (+2.31)





Party support

KMT takes the lead over DPP at the expense of TPP

KMT        30.40 (+3.29)
DPP         30.06 (-0.72)
TPP         16.92 (-2.66)
NPP           1.72 (+0.39)
TSP            1.20 (-0.09)
PFP            0.70 (+0.34)

[jaichind]

The candidate list is mostly out for most legislative races.  Looking at them district by district things are looking pretty good for the KMT.  The TPP list is not large does not really have any heavyweights and for seats which are marginal the TPP candidate are mostly nobodies.  Overall this sets up the KMT and TPP PR votes to consolidate behind the KMT candidate and will spell big trouble for the DPP.

My current guess.


PR (34)                         KMT       DPP      TPP      NPP      TSP
                                     14          13         7         0         0

TPP surge cuts into NPP vote while pro-independence  PR vote shifts to DPP undermining TSP.  A lot more vote wastage on the Pan-Green side than the Pan-Blue slide.  


District(73)                   KMT+     DPP

Special municipalities
Taipei City (臺北市)           6            2 <- DPP only retains Taipei 1st and 2nd
New Taipei City (新北市)    6            6 <- DPP candidate quality holds KMT gains
Taoyuan City (桃園市)       6            0 <- A couple will be very close
Taichung City(臺中市)        5            3 <- most of them will be very close
Tainan City (臺南市)          0            6
Kaohsiung City (高雄市)     1            7 <- KMT will narrowly flip back Kaohsiung 3rd

Taiwan Province
Keelung City (基隆市)        1            0
Hsinchu City(新竹市)         1            0 <- will be a fun 4-way battle again
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)   2             0
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2            0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  2            2  <- DPP outperforms based on rare candidate quality gap
Nanto County(南投縣)        2            0  <- DPP split will filp back Nanto 2nd
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        0            2
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0            1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0            2
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0            2 <- KMT could spring a surprise due to DPP split
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0            1 <- KMT could spring a surprise due to DPP split
Penghu County(澎湖縣)       1           0  <- lot of local factors at play but for now KMT flip
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1            0
Taidong County(臺東縣)      1            0 <- local factors might allow DPP to hold this seat

Fujian Province
Kinmen County(金門縣)      1            0
Lianjiang County(連江縣)   1             0
 
Total District                   39           34

                                    KMT+        DPP
Aborigine seats(6)    
Plains                             2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
Mountains                       2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
 
Total Aborigine                4               2

                                 KMT+        DPP       TPP       NPP       TSP
Total                             57           49          7          0          0

Tiny KMT+ majority.   In theory DPP Lai's victory in the Prez election should help the DPP do better than this.  But DPP Lai's victory in a 4 way race would mean get will be around 36%-39% range and KMT candidate quality gap means that the anti-DPP vote would consolidate around the KMT candidate in marghinal seats to defeat DPP.  

[jaichind]

My prediction out of the 73 districts by district type

KMT pretty much will gain 6 seats for free in the Blue +4 or greater on the basis that this will not be a DPP wave election.  The marginal seats will really be how the TPP PR vote will split

                                                        2020                   2024 Prediction
                                 Total         KMT+     DPP+             KMT+       DPP+
Blue +4 or greater       23              17          6                  23            0
Blue +3 to Green +3    25               6         19                  16            9        
Green +4 or greater     25               0         25                   0           25
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                           73             23         50                 39           34

[jaichind]

One thing I noticed about TPP Ko's campaign is that when he attacks DPP Lai (which is his main focus now since he wants to consolidate the anti-DPP vote behind him) he mostly focuses on problems/scandals of the DPP New Tide faction which Lai is associated with. 

The basic idea is that the main fault line within the DPP at the grassroots level is New Tide vs non-New Tide.  TPP Ko is looking to try to capture some non-New Tide DPP and/or light Green votes.  So the way to do this is to focus his attack on the DPP New Tide faction versus DPP overall.  Most likely this will not work.  DPP might have New Tide vs non-New Tide internal issues but for elections at the national level the DPP is very effective in unifying to fight the election as one machine.  The same is not true for local elections.

[jaichind]

Guo announces half-American actress 賴佩霞(Lai Pei-Hsia) as his running mate.  She is really just a stand-in as clearly Guo's hope is some sort of deal between him and KMT Hou and/or TPP Ko where one of those two becomes his running mate in a grand anti-DPP alliance.

With Guo picking a half-American woman as his running mate that makes it likely the second half-American woman as VP candidate in this election as DPP Lai is likely to pick the Current ROC representative to the USA Former DPP MP of Hualian 蕭美琴(Hsiao Bi-khim).



Hsiao is really aligned with DPP Prez Tsai and is very close to the USA.   Her being on the ticket is sort of a way for both DPP Prez Tsai and the USA to have someone on the inside to "watch over" a likely DPP Lai administration.    DPP Lai knows this and in a DPP Lai administration will find ways to sideline Hsiao and pigeonhole her on dealing with with USA and nothing else.  This is sort of how DPP Prez Tsai treated DPP VP Lai.  She was forced to take him on as VP in 2020 as a way to unify the DPP ahead of the 2020 elections.

Speaking of women VP.  Former DPP VP 呂秀蓮(Annette Lu) has always been negative and hostile to Hsiao when Hsiao was a rising star in the DPP in the early 2000s and Lu became VP.  Also, Lu has also been hostile to DPP Tsai from the beginning and since 2018 left the DPP and has been shifting toward a light Blue position. Lu was a long-time feminist and Taiwan Independence activist since the 1970s.  I think at the subliminal level she views herself as the one and only true women leader.  People like Hsiao and Tsai represent a threat to that self-perception and as a result lead to hostility and conflict with both.  Lu being out of DPP has also led to a shift in her position on the PRC issue.  These days she is for some sort of Confederal or Commonwealth status with the PRC which is quite a dramatic shift from her firebrand Taiwan Independence position of the 1970s to the 1990s.  Now when you watch Lu on political discussion shows with the way she attacks Tsai and DPP you would think she is a member of the KMT.

[jaichind]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4996482

"Taiwan recalls eggs from Brazil"

Latest DPP corruption storm.

The story is this
a) Due to various issues with production the ROC is facing an egg shortage with egg prices shooting up which means the DPP administration needs to deal with this
b) The easy way out is to lower the import tariff on eggs which will lead to an import surge and lower egg prices on ROC,
c) The DPP feared doing b) would mean a surge of PRC egg imports and that the CCP would get "credit" in helping reduce egg prices on ROC
d) So the DPP administration picked a few egg importers to do special deals with other non-PRC egg surplus economies. 
e) It turns out a bunch of these egg importers are connected to key DPP leaders and got very favorable deals from the government to import eggs.
f) In particular there was one deal that involved egg imports from Brazil where the contracts were written in a way that pretty much meant the DPP egg importer could just sit back and do nothing and just collect a fat check from the government.
g) Then it turned out a lot of these Brazilian eggs had incorrect expiration dates which added to the fuel of the scandal.

This already likely hit DPP Lai's numbers 

[jaichind]

The latest DPP renegade Formosa Times poll has DPP Lai falling.   Formosa Times has a heavy Green lean and can be erratic.  They tend to be accurate in a DPP wave election but only in a DPP wave election.

3-way
DPP Lai          35.2
TPP Ko           21.3
KMT Hou        21.2

4-way       
DPP Lai          34.3
KMT Hou        19.6
TPP Ko           18.9
Pro-KMT Guo  10.2

If you at this poll, take into account its Green lean and look at other polls  I think the state of the 4-way race is

DPP Lai           Low 30s
KMT Hou         Low to mid-20s
TPP Ko            Low to mid-20s
Pro-KMT Guo   Low teens

[jaichind]

The local NYC KMT organization arranged for a meeting between KMT Hou and NYC Mayor Adams.  During DPP Prez Tsai's visit in April NYC Mayor Adam stayed away even though historically the mayor of NYC had the job to meet ROC Prez or other key people on behalf of the USA government given the sensitives of the PRC.  Adam seems less averse to meeting KMT Hou mostly because of the power of the local KMT organization in Chinatown plus both Adams and Hou have a police background. 

[jaichind]

Guo announces half-American actress 賴佩霞(Lai Pei-Hsia) as his running mate.  She is really just a stand-in as clearly Guo's hope is some sort of deal between him and KMT Hou and/or TPP Ko where one of those two becomes his running mate in a grand anti-DPP alliance.

A problem for Guo.  It turns out that 賴佩霞(Lai Pei-Hsia) has dual ROC-USA citizenship which is not allowed for a ROC Prez or VP candidate.  She must have proof of removing her USA citizenship by the end of Nov when the ballots are printed (assuming Guo passes the threshold of signatures for him to be on the ballot.)  But the USA process for someone renouncing citizenship is 3-6 months mostly because of the backlog of tax audits.  I suspect Guo can pull enough strings, with money if necessary, to get this done but it will be tight.

[jaichind]

My current back-of-the-envelope guess on PR vote prediction

List of parties from Deep Blue to Deep Green
       
               2020 PR    2024 PR  2024 seats
UP              0.23%        0.2%                    Far Right Radical Unification
LP              0.14%         0.1%                    Far Left Radical Unification
UAA            0.12%        0.1%                    Social Conservative Unification
NP              1.04%        0.7%                    Right Unification
CP/TLP                         0.1%                    Left Unification
SFP            0.67%                                    Social Conservative Unification - de facto merge into KMT
KMT         33.36%       35.8%      14   
CPA           0.28%                                     Light Blue - de facto merged into KMT
PFP            3.66%         2.3%                    Light Blue
IU              0.22%         0.1%                    DPP Social Conservative splinter - count as Light Blue
TPP          11.22%       19.1%       7
TRP            0.08%         0.1%                   Light Green - anti-DPP
NPP            7.75%        2.5%                    Light Green - anti-DPP
GP              2.41%        1.7%                   Green Party - Light Green
DPP          33.98%       32.8%     13         
TSU            0.36%        0.2%                   KMT pro-independence splinter - count  as Deep Green
TAPA           1.01%                                  anti-Tsai Right independence - de facto merge back into DPP
FA               0.21%       0.1%                    anti-Tsai Right independence
TSP             3.16%       4.0%                    Radical independence
SSFPP          0.08%       0.1%                   Radical independence

By bloc         2020        2024
Deep Blue     1.54%      1.2%
KMT            33.36%    35.8%
Light Blue      4.17%     2.4%
TPP             11.22%    19.1%
Light Green 10.25%      4.3%
DPP             33.98%    32.8%
Deep Green    4.82%     4.2%

In 2020 DPP Tsai swept the DPP and Deep Green vote and won a large majority of the TPP vote as well as eating into the Light Blue vote.   Now in 2024 DPP Lai will be mostly restricted to the DPP and Deep Green vtoe while TPP Ko will win the TPP plus a solid part of the Light Green vote.

[jaichind]

TPP suspends party membership TPP mayor of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) 高虹安 (Ann Kao) pending accusations and future trial of corruption both as MP and as mayor.  TPP internals must be showing the storm around Kao must be hurting TPP Ko's numbers.  I suspect they most likely also show this hurting Guo's numbers as well since Kao is mostly associated with Guo her entire life and was "on loan" to TPP from Guo to become MP and then run for mayor.

[jaichind]

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/09/17/2003806362

"Over 54 million imported eggs set to be disposed of"

The ROC egg fiasco continues to roll on.  DPP minister of Agriculture already offered to resign.  It seems DPP Tsai is saying no since he is associated with the Tsai faction and she does not want to appear weak in front of the non-Tsai factions which are putting pressure on him to resign.

[jaichind]

Ideal/hoped-for but still realistic scenario for each of the 3 pan-Blue candidates between now and Nov:

KMT Hou: KMT Hou opens up a 5% lead over TPP Ko across all the polls with pro-KMT Guo lagging far behind.  Guo eventually drops out enforcing KMT Hou who surges to within 5% of DPP Lai.  Then the election becomes about trying to squeeze TPP Ko for anti-DPP tactical votes.

TPP Ko: TPP Ko opens up a 5% lead over KMT Ko across all the polls with pro-KMT Guo lagging far behind.  Guo eventually drops out enforcing TPP Ko who surges to within 5% of DPP Lai.  Then the election becomes about trying to squeeze KMT Hou for anti-DPP tactical votes.

Pro-KMT Guo: KMT Hou and TPP Ko are neck to neck in the poll with pro-KMT Guo not far behind.  There gets to a point where KMT Hou and TPP Ko have a showdown talk on how to consolidate an anti-DPP front.  The compromise is for both KMT Hou and TPP Ko to drop out and back pro-KMT Gou as the compromise anti-DPP united front candidate.  The argument for Guo is Deep blue which makes him acceptable to the KMT base and Guo has had a good personal relationship with Ko and TPP since 2020.

[jaichind]

Current TPEX political trading odds

Chances of being the winner
TPP Lai   70.0%
TPP Ko    15.5%
KMT Hou 14.5%

Expected Vote share (I assume this is assuming pro-KMT Guo eventually drops out)
TPP Lai    41.5%
TPP Ko     31.0%
KMT Hou  28.5%

[jaichind]

DPP renegade TPOF pollster which has a fairly Green lean now has DPP Prez Tsai's approval/disapproval back down to where it was after the DPP defeat in the 2022 local elections although not as bad as it was in the 2018 to early 2019 period
 

[jaichind]

Latest Ettoday poll

3-way (change from early Sept) - TPP Ko gains ground

DPP Lai            34.2 (-2.3)
KMT Hou          26.0 (-3.5)
TPP Ko             24.1 (+1.2)


4-way (Lai loses ground) - DPP Lai loses ground

DPP Lai           32.0 (-3.1)
KMT Hou         24.5 (-0.3)
TPP Ko            20.7 (+0.7)
Pro-KMT Guo   13.2 (+0.3)




The egg fiasco clearly hurt DPP Lai but also took media attention from KMT Hou's successful trip to USA.  As a result TPP Ko is a net winner over the last couple of weeks.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade TPOF poll.   This pollster is youth and light green heavy which would most likely overpoll TPP KO which did take place

3-way - DPP Lai loses ground, KMT Hou gains ground




4-way (everyone loses ground to TPP Ko)

DPP Lai                 31.4 (-2.5)
TPP Ko                  23.1 (+2.6)
KMT Hou               15.7 (-2.3)
Pro-KMT Guo         10.5 (-4.7)

[jaichind]

UDN poll.  They have a light blue lean but have been erratic in both directions before

3-way
DPP Lai           30
TPP Ko            21
KMT Hou         20

Same pattern as others.  TPP Ko is strong with youth and KMT Hou strong with the elderly.   DPP Lai has consolidated the DPP vote while KMT Hou and even to some extent TPP Ko have not consolidated their KMT and TPP base yet.




On pan-Blue consolidation scenarios

4-way
DPP Lai          28
TPP Ko           20
KMT Hou        18
pro-KMT Guo  10

4-way results show that the undecided in the 3-way poll lean Blue

KMT-TPP alliance
KMT-TPP         36
DPP Lai           28
pro-KMT Guo   12

KMT-TPP-Guo grand alliance
Grand alliance  47
DPP Lai            32

Who should lead a KMT-TPP-Guo grand alliance ticket
KMT Hou         38
TPP Ko            27
Pro-KMT Guo   21




Legislative race has KMT ahead

             District          PR
KMT         26              30
DPP         22              25
TPP           5              10