2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

KMT-TPP talks are still deadlocked.  TPP Ko insists on an all-poll "primary" where cell/land are 50/50 and he will consider himself as having lost if he does not win by ~3% (margin of error.)    CW in ROC polling is that cell/land should be something like 30/70 so Ko is trying to sneak in something to his advantage.  KMT is saying no and proposing all sorts of alternatives which TPP Ko is saying no to.

[jaichind]

TPP released its own 3-pollster average of Hou vs Lai vs Guo comparison to Ko vs Lai vs Guo

The average comes out to

Ko          34.14
Lai         31.14
Guo       11.01

Lai         34.06
Hou       28.36
Guo       14.88



Note that Lai is "cheating."  The poll is Hou vs Lai vs Guo and Ko vs Lai vs Guo and NOT Hou-Ko vs Lai vs Guo and Ko-Hou vs Lai vs Guo.  There is a bloc of youth pan-Blue but anti-Hou voters that will vote for Guo if Ko is not on the ticket.  The high Guo numbers overall show these polls are very cell-heavy.  I doubt these number will convince the KMT to back off but will consolidate the TPP vote base behind Ko in the likely even the KMT-TPP talks do break down which it is in the progress of anyway.

[jaichind]

2 out of the 3 polls Ko released actually had Hou ahead of Ko in a 3-way and 4-way matchup but it turned into a Ko lead after the cell phone results were given higher weight.

3-way
        Raw        Higher Weight for cell phone results
Lai    34.64                    30.91
Hou   28.96                    24.48
Ko     24.14                    32.82


4-way
        Raw        Higher Weight for cell phone results
Lai    32.67                     29.35
Hou   22.44                     16.98
Ko     17.71                     25.09
Gou     4.34                       8.44



It seems the main difference between polls which has Ko ahead of Hou and vice versa really has to do with how to weight cell phone results, which is a difference in the relative turnout models of the youth.  In 2020 there was a youth turnout surge that helped DPP Tsai overperform.  Pro-Ko pollsters are saying that this turnout surge will sustain itself in 2024.  The rest say that the youth turnout surge will subside in 2024.

[jaichind]

Latest Ettoday poll - Lai gains a bit of ground from Hou

3-way

 
A Hou-Ko or Ko-Hou ticket would beat DPP Lai 1-on-1 but will be neck-to-neck with DPP Lai if pro-KMT Guo gets into the race.
 



KMT is slightly ahead in the generic legislative district vote.  Most likely the TPP vote here will break for KMT even if the Hou-Ko alliance falls apart which is pretty bad news for DPP




KMT is slightly ahead of DPP in the PR vote with both double of the TPP PR vote

[jaichind]

Strongly Green lean Formosa Times poll for 台中(Taichung) 2nd district which is a Blue +1 district.

KMT              40.3 (former incumbent)
DPP              28.6

2016 it was
KMT            46.7
DPP            43.7
KMT rebel     8.9

2020 it was
TSP            51.2  (backed by DPP)
KMT           48.8

Even though this district was swept by DPP Tsai in 2016 and 2020 the KMT incumbent has a lot of local roots in terms of local factional support.  The DPP did not expect to win here so they backed TSP to run in 2020 and to their shock won along with the DPP Tsai 2020 wave.

The TSP MP was eventually recalled in 2021 by a local KMT factional effort in order to return the old KMT incumbent but the DPP candidate defeated the KMT incumbent due to the entire DPP machine throwing all its resources into this election.  The DPP winner did not have local roots but had a strong youth appeal which the DPP was able to rally.

2021 by-election
DPP           51.8
KMT          47.3 (old incumbent)

This time with the DPP machine needing to worry about all 73 election districts the old KMT incumbent is expected to win but for him to be ahead by 12 in a Formosa Times poll shows the scale of the trouble DPP is in across the board in legislative races.

[jaichind]

My current guess on results

3-way
DPP Lai           39
KMT Hou         33
TPP Ko            28

4-way
DPP Lai           37
KMT Hou         31
TPP Ko            25
pro-KMT Guo     7

[jaichind]

With time running out for a KMT-TPP deal the KMT came out with their bottom line: All poll primary but 60% candidate (Hou-Ko relative to Ko-Hou vs Lai) and 40% party support (KMT vs TPP.)

Of course with this ration then KMT Hou is destined to win this primary.  For TPP Ko to have a chance it will have to be something like 80/20.

I still think the KMT is positioning itself to blame TPP for any breakdown in unity talks.  It seems the KMT high command is thinking the way I am thinking: 2024 is not an election they have to win but they have to beat back the mid to long term threat of the TPP especially when KMT is likely to be able to deny DPP a legislative majority.

Within the KMT it seems it is the Deep Blue (Former KMT Prez Ma, 2020 KMT Prez candidate Han) that seems are the ones which are for compromise with TPP while the Light Blue (Former KMT Speaker Wang) that seems to be hardliners on TPP.

I think the reason is has to do with Hou's background.  Before 2010 Hou was more light Green and was in charge of the investigation of the 2004 319 shooting of DPP Prez Chen a day before the 2004 election.  The old Deep Blue were convinced that the shooting was staged but Hou's investigation showed that the assassin (who was found dead from suicide a couple of weeks later) acted alone.  The Deep Blue core never forgave Hou for that.  So for many on the Deep Blue side they clearly prefer Hou over Ko to win but would not mind if Ko ran and won with KMT support.   The Light Blue do not see it that way since the Light Blue was not obsesses with the 319 incident.

[jaichind]

It seems the Ko camp has agreed that in a all-poll primary it will be Hou-ko relative to Ko-Hou vs DPP Lai comparison.  So the only thing left between the two sides are will it be 100/0 or 60/40 or something in between when it comes to the weight of party support poll.

[jaichind]

UDN poll

4-way
DPP Lai          26(-2)
TPP Ko           21(+1)
KMT Hou        18 (--)
Pro-KMT Guo    7(-3)

Ko-Hou           36
DPP Lai           31
Guo                 9

Hou-Ko           35
DPP Lai           30
Guo                11

Ko-Hou           41
DPP Lai           35

Hou-Ko           42
DPP Lai           36



Using Ko's logic that results within the margin of error would mean KMT Hou wins the KMT-TPP primary then this poll has Hou beating Ko.


Legislative race

Generic ballot for district vote
KMT          27 (+1)
DPP          23 (+1)
TPP             8(+3)

PR vote
KMT          29 (-1)
DPP           27 (+2)
TPP           15 (+5)

Surge for TPP but in terms of party support TPP is half of KMT. So any sort of blended poll of Ko-Hou relative to Ko-Hou vs Lai and party support means KMT Hou wins.


 

[Octowakandi]

Who between Ko and Hou do you think would be the better President?

[jaichind]

Who between Ko and Hou do you think would be the better President?

I do not know but I do know if Ko becomes ROC Prez he would be the weakest Prez since Prez Yen of 1975-1978.  The ROC President does not have that much power.  In theory, the most powerful position in the ROC government is the PM.  The ROC President is powerful he or she gets to appoint the PM and more often than not is the head of the ruling party.   It is these two attributes that make the ROC Prez powerful and not being Prez by itself. Back in 1975 after Chaing the Elter died VP Yen took over.  But Chaing the Younger was PM and head of the KMT so Prez Yen had very little power.

Ko has already said that if he wins as part of an alliance with the KMT he will allow the KMT to choose the PM which would make KMT Chairperson Chu and the PM he picks more powerful than Ko.  Of course that assumes Ko will keep his word which I see no reason not to believe.  In theory, KMT Chairperson Chu could appoint himself to be PM (not absurd since Chu had been DPM before back in 2009-2010)  Assumin the KMT becomes the largest party in the legislature, then in that situation, KMT Chairperson Chu would be the most powerful political figure in ROC and not Ko.

Ko wants to be Prez mostly to try to raise the profile of TPP and create a situation in the future where ROC politics becomes a 3 party system.  It is exactly this scenario that many in the KMT are wary of doing business with him even if it means DPP Lai wins in 2024.

[jaichind]

In the unlikely scenario of a KMT-TPP deal and TPP Ko winning the "KMT-TPP" all-poll primary the optimal setup for the KMT would be

a) Have 2020 KMT Prez candidate Han be Ko's VP candidate as opposed to Hou
b) After Ko-Han wins have KMT Chairperson Chu be the PM
c) In 2026 after Hou's term expires he can then take over from Chu as PM

The reason why this is optimal is because

a) It is CW that Ko-Han would be a very strong ticket and most likely would sweep DPP Lai in a landslide
b) There will be no risky by-election for the mayor of New Taipei City since Hou will not resign
c) Hou has no experience with being PM so it is best for Chu who was DPM back in 2009-2010 to sort of set up the KMT administration for Hou who can then take over in 2026 which allows Hou to extend his political career even if he will miss being Prez.

[jaichind]

One can already sense the tension within the DPP between New Tide vs anti-New Tide.  Watch for an escalation of dirty tricks once KMT-TPP talks fail which means that DPP Lai is likely to be elected.

The prospect of a New Tide DPP Prez and likely New Tide DPP PM is unprecedented.   The New Tide faction is easily the more organized and most powerful of the DPP factions.  That New Tide does not take the Prez sport is critical to keeping balance within the DPP.  This is very similar to the LDP Tanaka faction in Japan in the mid-1970s to mid-1980s where the balance within the LDP was held because the powerful Tanaka faction focused on being a Kingmaker but not a King.  The crisis of the LDP in the early 1990s was partly due to the Tanaka faction starting to take the PM position.

DPP Prez Tsai sought to counter New Tide by trying to draw now DPM Cheng (former Taoyuan mayor) who is the leader of the North New Tide faction over to her side to isolate DPP VP Lai who is the leader of the South New Tide faction.  After 2022 local factions Cheng mostly went back to Lai to form a Lai-Cheng alliance and Cheng will likely be PM after DPP Lai wins in 2024. To stop this look for more dirt on CHeng to be expose to the public after KMT-TPP talks fail and DPP Lai's victory becoming close to being certain.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll

Hou and Ko gain from Lai

3-way
DPP Lai           34.2 (-0.7)
KMT Hou         28.0 (+0.7)
TPP Ko            27.4 (+1.4)




On the poll that counts  Hou-Ko gains a lot of relative ground on Ko-Hou in trial heats against DPP Lai. 

Hou-Ko        41.6(+1.2)
DPP Lai       37.1 (+0.1)

Ko-Hou       39.6 (-2.6)
DPP Lai       36.2 (--)




The reason for the Ko-Hou drop is less Hou voters are now willing to back Ko-Hou dropping from 60.6% in early Nov to 47.1% in Mid Nov.  Hou voters are clearly watching the news and now know how they answer question on Hou-Ko relative to Ko-Hou will now make a difference on which of the two "wins" a potential primary

[jaichind]

Out of the 1.1 million signatures the Guo camp submitted to the ROC election commission, around 900K were deemed as valid. This clearly crosses the 290K  needed to get on the ballot but does push him below the psychological 1 million mark. 

What is interesting is that for the last week or so you do not see Guo on the campaign trail.  I suspect he is waiting for the KMT-TPP talks to fail and then try to work out a deal with TPP Ko.  There is no way Guo will run as VP for TPP Ko but perhaps Guo can endorse TPP Ko and in return, some pro-Guo personalities are put on the TPP PR list.

[jaichind]

Today is the final KMT-TPP showdown meeting on unity talks.  If no deal is made today then there is no more time to do a poll before registration.  Ko position is a 3000 sample poll with 1.7% margin of error which means he is will to grant a 3.5% spread to Hou.  KMT seems to want 60/40 ratio between candidate polling and party polling.  The KMT does not seem to want a magrin of error spread advantage so the two proposals are not that far apart.   We will see what develops.  If there is a deal most likely it is Ko that folds. If he does not then the unity talks are over and it is each man for himself.  

[jaichind]

Contrary to most CW, the KMT-TPP deal was reached

A superficial view of the deal has both sides backing off but after an analysis of the details, it was Ko who blinked.

KMT Chairperson Chu, KMT Hou, Former KMT Prez Ma, TPP Ko telling the media about the deal


Former KMT Prez Ma brokered the deal as the pan-Blue elder statesman.

The KMT gave up on the idea of a 60/40 blend with party support added in which seems key to making sure that as many TPP voters vote for the united ticket.

The "primary" would be 3 polling experts (one recommended by Hou, one recommended by Ko, and one recommended by Ma) who will review all polls done between 11/7 to 11/17 that compare Ko-Hou relative to Hou-Ko vs DPP Lai.  If the the difference is within the margin of error that poll will count as Hou-Ko and if Ko-Hou has an edge outside the margin of error then it will count as Ko-Hou.  Then add up the number of polls that lean toward Hou-Ko and the number of polls that lean toward Ko-Hou.  On 11/18 the decision of this analysis will be announced.

This structure mostly means the chances of Hou winning are around 80%-90%.  If you look at the public polls since 11/7 using the methodology above then I figure Hou has a 9-4 lead already.  The KMT has more resources to hire pro-KMT pollsters to do polls by 11/17 adding to the lead.  And since former KMT Prez Ma is the "swing" vote in terms of polling expert review will lean toward Hou as well.

In the end, Ko blinked but in order to get the Ko voters to vote for Hou-Ko former KMT Prez Ma had to come up with a method that a) gives Ko some marginal chance of winning and b) on paper it seems both sides compromised.

[jaichind]

Winners of the deal:

a) Clearly KMT candidates running in legislative district races.  Now they can get both Ko and Hou to campaign for them. 
b) KMT Prez Ma who brokered this deal shows that he as large pan-Blue influence

Losers of the deal:

a) DPP candidates in legislative races
b) KMT mayor of Taipei Chiang.  If DPP Lai wins then Chiang is almost certain to become KMT Prez in 2032.  Now that seems a lot less likely now.


One cannot say DPP Lai has lost yet.  It is totally possible that pro-KMT Guo will still run and draw enough disgruntled TPP voters to throw the race to DPP Lai in the likely situation that it will be Hou-Ko.

Now the pressure will be on pro-KMT Guo to fall in line and back this KMT-TPP united front

[jaichind]

The latest Formosa Times poll has KMT Hou surging and both DPP Lai and TPP Ko losing ground. I think the conflict between KMT and TPP in KMT-TPP talks has activated the KMT base to rally around KMT Hou.  Another reason to believe the polling the next couple of days will be position for KMT Hou.

[jaichind]

In the end former  KMT Prez Ma and KMT Chairperson Chu good cop bad cop Ko.   The way for Ko to "win" such a primary is for a deal to be reached a couple of weeks ago involving a Hou-Ko opposition debate followed by both sides selecting a bunch of pollsters to do polls after the debate on the premise that Ko would best Hou in those debates.

So the KMT strategy is to run out the clock and drag out the talks.  The heated talks had the effect of pushing up Hou's poll numbers with the KMT base in recent polls.  And then when the deal was reached last minute there was no more time to have an organized effort to find pollsters so they had to go with existing public polls that had been done already (which lean Hou) and other polls that were ready to be done in the next 2 days. 

So in the end Ko might have won the PR war with KMT by getting KMT to drop the party support being in the mix but the KMT outmaneuvered Ko in terms of game theory negotiations strategy.

[jaichind]

Pro-DPP media talking point: This is a grand PRC conspiracy.  Former KMT Prez Ma got marching orders from his masters in Beijing and on their instructions, organized this KMT-TPP alliance.

[jaichind]

KMT Chairperson Chu, KMT Hou, Former KMT Prez Ma, TPP Ko telling the media about the deal

Note that Chu Hou and Ma are smiling but Ko is not smiling.  The body language has Ko not as engaged in the photo op.  Ko got outmaneuvered in these talks.

[jaichind]

DPP came out with their PR list.  It is fairly heavy in favor of the New Tide faction.  It seems DPP Lai's position is if he wins it will be the domination of New Tide in his administration.  There are already some grumblings within other DPP factions.  The DPP base always unit around Prez candidate but down-ballot hits from his PR list.

[jaichind]

At the technical level, there are some polls that have Ko well ahead of Hou but most polls have Hou ahead of neck-to-neck.  So not taking the average of polls and instead counting the number of polls that are pro-Hou (margin of error counts as pro-Hou) vs pro-Ko makes this "average" of polls primary very heavy in favor of Hou.

[jaichind]

After the KMT-TPP deal was made Ko went to a pro-TPP youth event where he was asked "Hey, back in 2014 you said that you hate 3 things in your life 'Flies, Cockroaches, and the KMT' so how can you now work with the KMT."  Ko responded "I hate the DPP even more.  This alliance means I can monitor the KMT from the inside."