2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

Guo announces half-American actress 賴佩霞(Lai Pei-Hsia) as his running mate.  She is really just a stand-in as clearly Guo's hope is some sort of deal between him and KMT Hou and/or TPP Ko where one of those two becomes his running mate in a grand anti-DPP alliance.

A problem for Guo.  It turns out that 賴佩霞(Lai Pei-Hsia) has dual ROC-USA citizenship which is not allowed for a ROC Prez or VP candidate.  She must have proof of removing her USA citizenship by the end of Nov when the ballots are printed (assuming Guo passes the threshold of signatures for him to be on the ballot.)  But the USA process for someone renouncing citizenship is 3-6 months mostly because of the backlog of tax audits.  I suspect Guo can pull enough strings, with money if necessary, to get this done but it will be tight.

Lai announced that she successfully renounced her USA citizenship. I guess the USA State Department expedited the process. 

[Octowakandi]

TPP and KMT are agreeing to debates to lead to a joint ticket.

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1715428506606125328

[jaichind]

There are no real ROC-based poll aggregators.  The only one that seems to be reasonable is Wikipedia which also tried to filter out the undecided.

They have it at

3-way
DPP Lai          40
TPP Ko           32
KMT Hou        28

4-way
DPP Lai          38
TPP Ko           27
KMT Hou        25
pro-KMT Guo  10

The main problem is many of the polls lean Green (overestimates Lai), are too cell phone heavy (overestimated Ko and Guo), and the undecided lean Blue, especially for 3-way polls.  If you compensate for that I think you get

3-way
DPP Lai         40
TPP Ko          30
KMT Hou       30

4-way
DPP Lai         39
KMT Hou       28
TPP Ko          25
pro-KMT Guo   8

[jaichind]

The main dilemma for KMT Hou and KMT overall is that the best way for him to be ahead of TPP Ko is for a 4-way race where pro-KMT Guo eats into the TPP Ko vote.  But a 4-way race ensures a DPP Lai victory. 

KMT-TPP talks are stuck partly because the KMT has to prioritize beating DPP in 2024 and stopping the TPP threat of displacing KMT as the alternative to DPP in the medium run.  I personally am fine with losing the 2024 Prez race as long as a DPP majority in the legislature is stopped.  A legislature where TPP holds the balance of power would mean it will have to side with KMT or DPP and just like the LDEM in the UK after 2010 will eventually destroy TPP.  For me, the main goal of KMT winning the Prez is to start unification talks with the PRC.  But the political reality is that any chance of PRC-ROC reunification is not realistic until the late 2030s anyway so I will not focus on KMT winning the Prez stop until the 2030s.  Of course many in the KMT do not see it that way ergo KMT-TPP talks are taking place within the context of a dove vs hawk battle within the KMT.

In the meantime, DPP holding the Prez stop would mean continued anti-incumbency helps the non-DPP forces down-ballot, and post 2024 DPP victory TPP will get weaker which means the KMT will continue to gain from anti-DPP anti-incumbancy.

[jaichind]

The latest signal from the TPP Ko camp is that even if TPP Ko "wins" the KMT-TPP "primary" and becomes the KMT-TPP united front candidate and wins in 2024 the PM spot and formation of the cabinet will be given to the KMT.   TPP Ko seems to have caught on to the fact that even if he were to "win" the KMT-TPP "primary" and KMT Hou steps aside he would not get the KMT organizational vote.  He figured that the KMT organizational vote could be motivated by the prospect of getting a share of resources from the control of the central government in the form of a KMT cabinet.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade TPOF  has DPP Lai falling fast and crashing below 30%.  TPOF has a large historical Green lean but does also have cell phone lean so they are also likely to overestimate TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo over KMT Hou

3-way

DPP Lai           29.7 (-3.7)
TPP Ko            25.6 (-1.8 )
KMT Hou         21.1 (+3.9)




4-way

DPP Lai            26.5 (-4.9)
TPP Ko             21.7 (-1.4)
KMT Hou          20.2 (+4.5)
Pro-KMT Guo    12.4 +(1.9)


Again Pro-KMT Guo running hurts TPP Ko the most and KMT Hou the least which is ironic given the fact that pro-KMT Guo is Deep Blue.

[jaichind]

DPP Lai's recent poll falls show the strategic dilemma of the DPP Lai campaign.  

DPP Lai campaign could focus on
1) PRC-ROC issues in the election to rally the DPP base.  DPP Prez Tsai and USA have both warned Lai that he better tone done his pro-Taiwan Independence line so as to not rock the boat.  Lai is trying to run as a moderate but that conflicts with his image so it is hard for him to gain traction on this as opposed to DPP Tsai's 2016 and 2020 campaigns.

2) Attacking TPP Ko and KMT Hou.  The main problem here is that while KMT-TPP unity talks are ongoing any DPP Lai attack on either party could be viewed as a "trick" to split KMT and TPP and could provoke an unlikely KMT-TPP alliance that would be a grave threat to DPP Lai.

3) Running on a domestic agenda.  The main problem is that with anything he runs on the question will be raised "If your ideas are so good then why doesn't the current DPP administration with a DPP majority in the legislature implement them now versus waiting until you are elected?"  Of course, the main problem is that DPP Prez Tsai and the Tsai faction PM Chen do not see eye to eye with Lai so in reality any Lai ideas on domestic policy will have to wait until he is elected.    Of course, saying this breaks DPP unity so Lai cannot really push this domestic agenda as part of his campaign.

So now Lai is left with no camping message and waiting for the Pan-Blue anti-DPP majority vote to split in Jan 2024 so he can be elected.   The main problem with that is that the DPP Lai campaign then disappears from the media narrative, especially during the media frenzy over KMT-TPP unity talks, and as a result DPP Lai poll ratings decline.

[jaichind]

The last few hours the DPP got hit with a hammer blow.   A tabloid released a bunch of pictures of a DPP MP  趙天麟(Chao Tien-lin) (Kaoshiung 6th) and his mistress from the Mainland.  This is very damaging since Chao is on the Legislative committee dealing with issues with the PRC.  

It seems a key legislative aid of Chao sold these pictures to the tabloid for a bundle of money.

What a moron.  If you are going to have an affair you should not take pictures of yourself in the act.


Also, Chao has projected himself as a "family man" over his political career

Chao with his wife


Chao was a rising DPP superstar and likely DPP candidate for mayor of Kaoshiung in 2026.

Using DPP standards one can start to accuse Chao of having an affair with a likely CPP spy.  I personally think this is a lot more innocuous and it is just a standard romantic affair but the DPP deserves its own standards to be applied to itself.

Chao has admitted to his infidelity and claimed that his wife has forgiven him.  He seems to want to try to fight it out and try to run for re-election.  The rest of the DPP are waiting in fear on the blast radius of this scandal.  Frankly, Chao should just not run and step aside and admit his political career is over.

[jaichind]

Renegade DPP pollster TPOF which has a heavy Green bias has KMT and DPP nearly tied in terms of party support

DPP        27.1 (-3.2)
KMT       26.5 (+3.4)
TPP        17.0 (-0.1)
NPP        2.8 (+0.2)
TSP        2.2 (+0.3)


They also have DPP Prez Tsai's approval/disapproval even worse than where it was back in Dec 2022 when there was an anti-DPP wave in local elections.

[jaichind]

Another sex scandal breaks for DPP.  Current DPP DPM 鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-Tsan)  and Taoyuan mayor who was one time tipped by DPP Tsai to run for Prez for DPP in 2024 (to stop Lai) is the latest victim.  A 30-second video was released that has him entering into a motel with a woman who is not his wife.



Cheng's response is

a) This was many years ago
b) This video has been edited

But not he does not deny going into a motel room with a women that is not his wife.

[jaichind]

The CW for the  DPP MP  趙天麟(Chao Tien-lin) mainland China mistress scandal is that rival factions within the Koashiung DPP are behind this.  As I mentioned 趙天麟(Chao Tien-lin) is a very likely DPP candidate for the DPP in 2026 mayoral race.  The current thinking is that rival DPP faction in Kaoshiung released these pictures to knock him out of the 2026 DPP mayor primary by driving him out of the current election for MP.

[jaichind]

KMT-TPP unity talks

TPP Ko position: The average of a bunch of polls will decide which of TPP Ko and KMT Hou is the stronger in the polls with the loser dropping out and winner can decide if he wants to draft the loser as VP candidate.

If they go with this approach then it is 50/50 depending on which pollster, how much cell phones get weighted, and how the question is asked (is it head to head? Is it a 1-on-1 vs DPP Lai comparison? Is it 3-way? Is it 4-way?)

KMT Hou position:  50/50 weighted result of the average of polls (like TPP Ko suggested) followed by an open primary where any voter can vote on the two choices (Hou-Ko ticket vs Ko-Hou ticket).  This approach must end as Hou-Ko or Ko-Hou with the losing side not having an option of dropping out or not running

If they go with this approach KMT Hou has about a 99% chance of winning given the KMT organizational vote advantage over TPP and even some politically active DPP that might choose to vote in this open primary.

KMT Hou showing what the open primary ballot will look like under his plan.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade TPOF  has DPP Lai falling fast and crashing below 30%.  TPOF has a large historical Green lean but does also have cell phone lean so they are also likely to overestimate TPP Ko and pro-KMT Guo over KMT Hou

3-way

DPP Lai           29.7 (-3.7)
TPP Ko            25.6 (-1.8 )
KMT Hou         21.1 (+3.9)

The regional breakdown of the 3-way poll is interesting

                         DPP Lai      TPP Ko        KMT Hou
Taipei City            25              22               29            <- Ko was mayor here 2014-2022
New Taipei City     33              23               21            <- Hou is the current mayor here
Taoyuan City         22              40               25
Taichung City        30              30               14
Tainan City           40              23               17            <- Lai was mayor here 2010-2017
Kaoshiung            39              19               16           
Rest                    39              19                16

Both Ko and Hou are in their place in their home city.  KMT Hou's vote share does seem to correlate with the Deep Blue vote.  TPP Ko's vote share seems to correlate with the Light Blue vote.  DPP Lai's vote share seems to correlate with the Deep Green vote in the 6 cities and Deep Green + Light Green in the rest.

[jaichind]

More pictures of current DPP DPM 鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-Tsan)  and his alleged mistress released

[jaichind]

A review of the released pictures of  DPP MP  趙天麟(Chao Tien-lin) and his Mainland Chinese mistress indicates that they were taken mostly in places outside of ROC with a concentration in Japan and also in Mainland China itself.  It seems Chao was using various trips outside of ROC for official reasons (including those on the Mainland) to meet with his mistress.  It does seem that this relationship lasted 10 years and most likely ended already.

I think the Chao scandal will have teeth versus DPM Cheng since the Mainland China connection will run against the DPP brand and narrative.  Having affairs is really not a big deal in the Chinese social ecosystem since we Chinese are not Christian so affairs are not going against any diety.   As long as the wife is cool with it then no one really cares.  And for high-status men, there is social pressure for the wife to look the other way (hey,  you bagged a high-status man as a husband so be happy with that and do not complain too much.  You should be happy to have a husband that has the means and ability to cheat.)   

A long-time opposition figure and one of the founding members of DPP 張俊雄(Chang Chun-Hsiung) who ran for mayor of Kaohsiung in 1994 and is now currently a Special Advisor to DPP Prez Tsai was famously called "three pillows" since he was well known as having two wives.  He lost in 1994 but it was not because he had two wives which was a non-issue.

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shanshankao/2023/10/23/billionaire-terry-gous-foxconn-under-investigation-says-china-state-media/?sh=7e76f49e2589

"Billionaire Terry Gou’s Foxconn Under Investigation, Says China State Media"

PRC to Guo: Get going on joining anti-DPP opposition alliance

[jaichind]

It seems there was a Hou-Ko meeting where Hou sort of repeated his offer of a 50/50 poll/open primary model.  Afterward, Hou said in a press conference with KMT Prez Chu that he is willing to accept the result of this process, and if he loses he will become Ko's VP candidate. 

The narrative up until now is that TPP Ko has a proposal and the KMT did not come up with a solid counter-offer so the impression of Pan-Blue voters is that KMT Hou is delaying KMT-TPP unity.  KMT Hou coming out saying that he is open to being Ko's running mate is an attempt to flip this around on TPP Ko.

TPP Ko clearly is not happy with this turn of evens and complained to the media that he feels like he is being forced into a shotgun wedding.  All this back and forth points to one fact: KMT-TPP unity us unlikely and both sides are maneuvering to blame the other side when it does break down.

[jaichind]

The last few hours the DPP got hit with a hammer blow.   A tabloid released a bunch of pictures of a DPP MP  趙天麟(Chao Tien-lin) (Kaoshiung 6th) and his mistress from the Mainland.  This is very damaging since Chao is on the Legislative committee dealing with issues with the PRC.  

It seems a key legislative aid of Chao sold these pictures to the tabloid for a bundle of money.

What a moron.  If you are going to have an affair you should not take pictures of yourself in the act.


Also, Chao has projected himself as a "family man" over his political career

Chao with his wife


Chao was a rising DPP superstar and likely DPP candidate for mayor of Kaoshiung in 2026.

Using DPP standards one can start to accuse Chao of having an affair with a likely CPP spy.  I personally think this is a lot more innocuous and it is just a standard romantic affair but the DPP deserves its own standards to be applied to itself.

Chao has admitted to his infidelity and claimed that his wife has forgiven him.  He seems to want to try to fight it out and try to run for re-election.  The rest of the DPP are waiting in fear on the blast radius of this scandal.  Frankly, Chao should just not run and step aside and admit his political career is over.

Chao drops out as DPP candidate for Kaohsiung 6th

[jaichind]

Another sex scandal breaks for DPP.  Current DPP DPM 鄭文燦 (Cheng Wen-Tsan)  and Taoyuan mayor who was one time tipped by DPP Tsai to run for Prez for DPP in 2024 (to stop Lai) is the latest victim.  A 30-second video was released that has him entering into a motel with a woman who is not his wife.



Cheng's response is

a) This was many years ago
b) This video has been edited

But not he does not deny going into a motel room with a woman who is not his wife.

This video is from 2011.  If so this story is interesting and scary. 

The person with this video did not release it when Chen was running for mayor of Taoyuan in 2014 or for reelection in 2018.  The person did not release it in early 2023 when Chen was able to become DPM but released it now.  The fact this was not released in Dec 2023 when it could have done maximum damage to DPP Lai shows the person does want DPP to win but wants to cut off Cheng's route to being PM after a Lai victory in 2024. 

The conclusion is that the person that released this is a rival DPP faction to Cheng that wants to be in power but want to cut Cheng out of the spoils.

[jaichind]

In Taichung 1st district the KMT will not nominate a candidate but back the TPP candidate against the DPP Deputy Speaker.  This is a Green +1 district but due the the local vote of the DPP Deputy Speaker, it is not viewed as competitive.  As a gesture of collaboration, the KMT has decided to support the TPP candidate (who was a TPP PR MP and is very close to Ko) to see if a TPP-KMT merging of the vote could pull off an upset.

This is a very similar move DPP made in 2020 when they backed a TSP candidate against a local KMT faction kingpin MP in Taichung 2nd district which is Blue +1 but was de facto viewed as not competitive due to the power of the KMT faction kingpin personal vote.  The TSP candidate won in an upset as part of the DPP Prez Tsai wave.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll

4-way
DPP Lai          33 (-1)
TPP Ko           24 (+2)
KMT Hou        22 (+1)
pro-KMT Guo    8 (-1)

KMT Hou consolidating with KMT voters but losing ground among pan-Blue independents to TPP Ko.  Ko's message of an all-poll-based "primary" between TPP Ko and KMT Hou seems to resonate with pan-Blue independents.



3-way
DPP Lai          34 (-2)
TPP Ko           29 (+1)
KMT Hou        26




Approval/Disapproval

DPP Lai            41(+1)/41(+2)
TPP Ko             47(+6)/37(-1)
KMT Hou          40(+4)/39(+1)
pro-KMT Guo    36(+6)/43(-3)

KMT-TPP unity talks have pushed up approvals for both TPP Ko and KMT Hou.  DPP Lai stagnating due to not being in the news

[jaichind]

So right now there are two issues stuck between KMT Hou and TPP Ko unity talks

a) TPP Ko wants the decision to be 100% based on polls while KMT Hou wants 50/50 between polls and open primary

b) TPP Ko seems to want, if he were to win, for 2020 KMT candidate Han to run as his VP while KMT Hou insists it has to be Hou-Ko or Ko-Hou

One a) the KMT is on KMT Hou's side.  But on issue b) the KMT organization most likely would think that the Ko plan is better.  Namely a Ko-Han ticket is stronger than a Ko-Hou ticket.    Han is "Trump-like" in the sense that he is very strong with the Deep Blue vote and would push up Deep Blue turnout.  Both Ko and Hou are light blue and their appeal is mostly overlapping.  I bet the KMT MP candidates, looking at b) most likely prefer TPP Ko's plan of having Han run as Ko's VP if Ko wins the primary vs Hou.

[jaichind]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shanshankao/2023/10/23/billionaire-terry-gous-foxconn-under-investigation-says-china-state-media/?sh=7e76f49e2589

"Billionaire Terry Gou’s Foxconn Under Investigation, Says China State Media"

PRC to Guo: Get going on joining anti-DPP opposition alliance

What the PRC is up to is the hit Guo's narrative that he is in a relationship with the PRC in order to drive Guo's Deep Blue vote back to KMT Hou.  The PRC also wants to get the light green sympathy vote from DPP Lai. 

DPP Lai, right away, sees what the PRC was up to and immediately came out to back both Guo and Foxconn on this issue to prevent the loss of some light Green vote to Guo.

 

[jaichind]

I agree that if TPP Ko's idea is to get a Ko-Han ticket then it is a very powerful combination.

I would say: that if the election ends with both TPP Ko and KMT Hou running, then the chances of DPP Lai winning is 90% and with Guo running DPP Lai's chances are 99%.  On the other hand, if it is a 1-on-1 race between between DPP Lai and KMT-TPP unity Ko-Han ticket (where Guo drops out)  then the chances of a Ko-Han ticket winning is around 95%.  This gives you a sense of how high DPP Lai's floor is but how low his ceiling is.
 

[jaichind]

From what I can piece together from various media outfits it seems what took place with with DPP MP  趙天麟(Chao Tien-lin) was

a) He started the affair with this Mainland woman around 10 years ago (she is 36 now so she was 26 when the affair started) (he is 50)
b) His wife found out about this fairly recently and had a big blowup.  Part of patching up the marriage involved dumping his mistress
c) Under the rule of "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned" his ex-mistress then, through a third party, distributed pictures of their affair to various ROC media outfits.
d) It sounds like this third party still could be some rival DPP faction or some disgruntled element within the Chao camp.

One way or another Chao's political career is over.